国际顶刊 | 《英国政治科学杂志》2021年第2期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《英国政治科学杂志》2021年第51卷第2期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
British Journal of Political Science（英国政治科学杂志）是剑桥大学出版社旗下学术期刊，创刊于1971年，出版周期为每年4期。期刊收录范围广泛，涵盖政治科学的所有细分学科（政治理论、政治行为、公共政策和国际关系），以及部分其他相关学科（社会学、社会心理学、经济学和哲学）学者的文章。
《英国政治科学杂志》被认为是政治科学领域最为主要的期刊之一。2020年的影响因子为5.174，在183种政治科学类期刊中排名第15。
PART 2
期刊目录
Violence on Many Sides: Framing Effects on Protest and Support for Repression
多方暴力：抗议和支持镇压的框架效应
Military Aid, Regime Vulnerability and the Escalation of Political Violence
军事援助、政权的脆弱性和政治暴力的升级
Ruling Parties in Authoritarian Regimes: Rethinking Institutional Strength
威权政体中的执政党：反思制度力量
How State Capacity Helps Autocrats win Elections
国家能力如何帮助专制者赢得选举
Don't Call It a Comeback: Autocratic Ruling Parties After Democratization
别称其为回潮：民主化后的专制执政党
Principled or Pragmatic? Morality Politics in Direct Democracy
原则性还是实用主义？直接民主中的道德政治
Reconsidering Tolerance: Insights From Political Theory and Three Experiments
重新讨论宽容：来自政治学理论和三个实验的洞察
Negativity Bias: The Impact of Framing of Immigration on Welfare State Support in Germany, Sweden and the UK
消极偏见：在德国、瑞典和英国，移民框架对支持福利国家的影响
Incumbent Tenure Crowds Out Economic Voting
在职任期排出经济投票
When Deliberation Produces Persuasion rather than Polarization: Measuring and modeling Small Group Dynamics in a Field Experiment
当审议产生说服力而非极化对立：在田野实验中对小组动态进行测量和建模
Escaping the Disengagement Dilemma: Two Field Experiments on Motivating Citizens to Report on Public Services
摆脱不参与困境：鼓励公民反映公共服务的两个田野实验
Stuck in the middle: Ideology, valence and the electoral failures of centrist parties
陷入中间：中间政党的意识形态、价值和选举失败
Why Local Party Leaders Don't Support Nominating Centrists
为何地方政党领导不支持提名中间派
The Effects of Female Leadership on Women's Voice in Political Debate
女性领导对政治辩论中女性声音的影响
The Political Dynamics of Portfolio Design in European Democracies
欧洲民主政体中组合设计的政治动力学
The Politics of Procedural Choice: Regulating Legislative Debate in the UK House of Commons, 1811–2015
程序选择的政治：1811-2015年，对英国下议院中立法辩论的规范
Media's Influence on LGBTQ Support Across Africa
媒体对非洲各地支持LGBTQ的影响
The Political Morality of School Composition: The Case of Religious Selection
有关学校构成的政治道德：宗教选择的案例
Muslim Trade and City Growth Before the Nineteenth Century: Comparative Urbanization in Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia
19世纪前的穆斯林贸易和城市发展：欧洲、中东和中亚的城市化比较
Do Political Finance Reforms Reduce Corruption?
政治财政改革能减少腐败吗？
PART 3
精选译文
01 多方暴力：抗议和支持镇压的框架效应
【题目】
Violence on Many Sides: Framing Effects on Protest and Support for Repression
【作者】
Pearce Edwards, Daniel Arnon
【摘要】
抗议活动的成功取决于它们是否积极地影响公众舆论：非暴力抵抗可以赢得公众对运动的支持，但政权将抗议描述为暴力的、由外人煽动的，以此反击抗议活动。作者认为，公众对抗议是否暴力的看法会根据对行动类型和行动参与者身份的框架而改变。文章区分了三个维度：(1) 受伤的威胁；(2) 武器携带；(3) 抗议者的身份。通过在以色列和美国的调查实验，研究发现了框架效应的支持证据。受伤的威胁对认知暴力和支持镇压有最大的正向影响。令人惊讶的是，社会外群体并没有被认为是更暴力的，但受访者还是赞成镇压他们。对镇压无威胁的外群体的支持至少与镇压有威胁的内群体的支持相当。研究结果将抗争行动和公众舆论联系起来，并表明这种联系很容易受到框架的影响。
The success of protests depends on whether they favorably affect public opinion: nonviolent resistance can win public support for a movement, but regimes counter by framing protest as violent and instigated by outsiders. The authors argue that public perceptions of whether a protest is violent shift based on the framing of the types of action and the identities of participants in those actions. The article distinguishes between three dimensions: (1) threat of harm, (2) bearing of arms and (3) identity of protesters. Using survey experiments in Israel and the United States, the study finds support for framing effects. Threat of harm has the largest positive effect on perceptions of violence and support for repression. Surprisingly, social out-groups are not perceived as more violent, but respondents favor repressing them anyway. Support for repressing a nonthreatening out-group is at least as large as support for repressing a threatening in-group. The findings link contentious action and public opinion, and demonstrate the susceptibility of this link to framing.
02 军事援助、政权的脆弱性和政治暴力的升级
【题目】
Military Aid, Regime Vulnerability and the Escalation of Political Violence
【作者】
Andrew Boutton
【摘要】
本文为美国在一些国家军事援助计划的失败提供了一种解释。作者认为，军事援助的效果依受援政权的脆弱性而定。一个不安全的领导人巩固权力，往往会引发暴力反抗。然而，由于军事援助增强了受援国的安全部队，一种鼓励排他性权力巩固的道德风险因此产生，伴随着对军事援助将有助于应付暴力反抗的期望。利用代表政权脆弱性的指标和衡量美国军事援助的工具，研究表明，在新政权（特别是新民主国家）和所有个人统治政权中军事援助会增加反政权暴力。相反，军事援助对既有的非个人政权下的暴力没有影响。文章就政权特征如何制约对外部军事支持的反应提出了一个新理论，并确定了军事援助增加国内政治暴力的独特机制。
This article offers an explanation for the failures of US military assistance programs in some countries. The author argues that the effects of military aid are conditional upon the vulnerability of the recipient regime. Power consolidation by an insecure leader often provokes violent opposition. However, because military aid strengthens the security forces of the recipient state, it generates a moral hazard that encourages exclusionary power consolidation, with the expectation that continued military aid will help manage violent blowback. Using proxies for regime vulnerability and an instrument for US military aid, the study shows that military aid increases anti-regime violence in new regimes (particularly new democracies) and in all personalist regimes. In contrast, military assistance has no effect on violence in established, non-personalist regimes. The article develops a novel theory of how regime characteristics condition responses to external military support, and identifies a distinct mechanism through which military aid increases domestic political violence.
03 威权政体中的执政党：反思制度力量
【题目】
Ruling Parties in Authoritarian Regimes: Rethinking Institutional Strength
【作者】
Anne Meng
【摘要】
关于威权政体的文献中有一个关键发现，即领导人经常依靠执政党来保持权力，但该领域缺乏系统的方法来衡量专制政党的实力。因此，人们并不清楚执政党究竟有多强大，在多大程度上能履行重要职能。本文表明，强大的执政党比通常认为的要稀少得多。作者利用1946-2008年独裁政权的全球样本，表明大多数执政党无法在创始领导人死亡或离开后继续存活，对许多被列为主流的一党制政权的执政党同样如此。虽然强政党可能是威权主义持续的关键，但真正的强政党相对较少。
A key finding in the literature on authoritarian regimes is that leaders frequently rely on ruling parties to stay in power, but the field lacks systematic ways to measure autocratic party strength. As a result, it is not clear how often ruling parties are actually strong and capable of carrying out important functions. This article demonstrates that strong ruling parties are much rarer than is typically assumed. Using a global sample of dictatorships from 1946-2008, the author shows that most ruling parties are unable to survive the death or departure of the founding leader. This is true even of many ruling parties that have been coded as leading single-party regimes. While strong parties may be key to durable authoritarianism, relatively few parties are truly strong.
04 国家能力如何帮助专制者赢得选举
【题目】
How State Capacity Helps Autocrats win Elections
【作者】
Merete Bech Seeberg
【摘要】
研究强调了国家在维持威权政体方面的作用。但在选举期间，国家能力是如何支持专制者的？作者笔者认为，国家能力的一个具体方面——国家机器对领土的控制——帮助专制者确保了绝大多数的选举胜利。能力强的统治者可以依靠地方代理人和制度来巧妙地操纵选举，例如控制媒体或约束国内选举监督员在全境的工作，同时远离选举暴力等代价高昂的操纵行为。在对1946年至2017年的威权主义多党选举的跨国分析中，研究发现，国家领土控制会增加大胜的可能性。此外，高水平的国家控制与同大胜呈正相关的微妙操纵策略相联系，包括媒体偏见和对国内监督员的限制。同时，国家控制与选举暴力呈负相关。
Research has highlighted the role of the state in sustaining authoritarian regimes. But how does state capacity support autocrats during elections? The author argues that one specific aspect of state capacity–control over territory through the state apparatus–helps autocrats ensure large majority electoral victories. High-capacity rulers can rely on local agents and institutions to subtly manipulate elections, for instance by controlling the media or inhibiting the work of domestic election monitors throughout the territory while staying clear of costly manipulation such as election violence. In cross-national analyses of authoritarian multiparty elections from 1946 to 2017, the study finds that state territorial control increases the likelihood of large victories. Furthermore, high levels of state control correlate with subtle strategies of manipulation, including media bias and restrictions on domestic monitors–strategies that are also positively associated with large victories. At the same time, state control is negatively associated with election violence.
05 别称其为回潮：民主化后的专制执政党
【题目】
Don't Call It a Comeback: Autocratic Ruling Parties After Democratization
【作者】
Michael K. Miller
【摘要】
当专制执政党参与民主化进程时，它们并不总是消失在历史中。自1940年以来的41次转型，包括墨西哥、台湾、保加利亚和加纳的转型，执政党在民主化后都能生存下来并赢得权力。为什么有的前专制政党在民主制度下蒸蒸日上，而有的则迅速解体？这对民主的生存有什么影响？本文利用原始数据预测84个专制执政党截止到2015年的转型后命运。现行理论强调彻底的重塑和局外人的斗争，而笔者认为，成功反而是将执政党的优势保持到民主时期。当政党拥有容易转化到民主竞争中的威权遗产时，如广泛的计划经验、强大的组织和政策成功，政党就会成功。此外，一些不利于新政党和新政客的民主制度是有利于专制政党的。最后，一项辅助变量设计表明，专制政党的成功对民主的存活和质量有负面影响。
When autocratic ruling parties accede to democratization, they do not always fade away into history. Following forty-one transitions since 1940, including those in Mexico, Taiwan, Bulgaria and Ghana, the ruling party survived and won power after democratization. Why do some former autocratic parties prosper under democracy while others quickly dissolve? What effect does this have on democratic survival? This article uses original data to predict the post-transition fates of eighty-four autocratic ruling parties through 2015. Whereas extant theories emphasize radical reinvention and outsider struggle, the author argues that success is instead about maintaining ruling-party advantages into the democratic period. Parties succeed when they have authoritarian legacies that easily translate to democratic competition, such as broad programmatic experience, strong organization and policy success. In addition, democratic institutions that disadvantage new parties and actors benefit autocratic parties. Lastly, an instrumental variables design shows that autocratic party success negatively impacts democratic survival and quality.
06 原则性还是实用主义？直接民主中的道德政治
【题目】
Principled or Pragmatic? Morality Politics in Direct Democracy
【作者】
Céline Colombo
【摘要】
政治学家经常区分两类问题：道德问题与非道德问题或社会文化问题与经济问题。其含义是，这些类型的问题会引发不同类型的逻辑：经济问题依赖于实用性、后果论的理由，而社会文化问题被认为依赖于原则主义和义务论的理由。然而，从公民的角度来看，这种区分是否如此清晰不得而知。学者们一致认为，了解选民政治态度背后的道德对理解他们的政治行为有启示，例如他们妥协的意愿和对审议的开放。然而，很少有研究分析公民是否在不同问题上以原则性的或实用的方式进行思考。本研究采用探索性的方法，分析在直接民主下，公民在投票箱中做出直接的政策决定时原则性与实用性理由的决定因素。本研究利用基于瑞士34个投票决定的独特数据集，探讨了选民在开放式调查回答中做出投票决定的理由。它区分了实用主义（或后果主义）论点和原则主义（或基于价值的）论点。分析表示，原则性理由与特定议题无关。选民使用这两类理由的频率几乎相同。当某一议题与个人相关，以及当某一主张被接受时，道德理由更有可能出现，而当某一主张被拒绝时，实用性的理由则占上风。此外，右翼选民更多的是以实用的方式进行论证。最后，竞选期间对议题的解释显著影响选择道德理由或实用理由。
Political scientists often distinguish between two types of issues: moral versus non-moral issues or social-cultural versus economic issues. The implication is that these types of issues trigger different types of reasoning: while economic issues rely on pragmatic, consequentialist reasoning, social-cultural issues are said to be dependent on principles and deontological reasoning. However, it is not known whether this distinction is as clear-cut from a citizen's perspective. Scholars agree that understanding the morality of voters’ political attitudes has implications for their political behaviour, such as their willingness to compromise and openness to deliberation. However, few studies have analysed whether citizens reason in principled or pragmatic ways on different issues. This study takes an exploratory approach and analyses the determinants of principled versus pragmatic reasoning in direct democracy, in which citizens make direct policy decisions at the ballot box. Using a unique dataset based on thirty-four ballot decisions in Switzerland, it explores the justifications voters give for their ballot decisions in open-ended survey answers. It distinguishes between pragmatic (or consequentialist) arguments and principled (or value-based) arguments. The analysis shows that principled justifications are not tied to particular issues. Voters use both types of justifications almost equally frequently. Moral justifications are more likely when an issue is personally relevant, as well as when a proposition is accepted, while pragmatic justifications prevail when a proposition is rejected. Furthermore, right-wing voters more often argue in pragmatic terms. Finally, the framing of the issue during the campaign significantly affects moral versus pragmatic justifications.
07 重新讨论宽容：来自政治学理论和三个实验的洞察
【题目】
Reconsidering Tolerance: Insights From Political Theory and Three Experiments
【作者】
Calvert W. Jones, Teresa M. Bejan
【摘要】
宽容是当代许多争议并存的基础，但政治理论家和政治学家却以截然不同的方式研究它。本文利用政治理论的最新发展来丰富实证研究，并将宽容的研究扩展到自由民主政体以外的环境，如威权制度，从而填补研究空白。我们的建议通过强调(1)宽容的对象；(2)对差异的可能反应；(3)宽容的来源等方面的差异，对占主导地位的自由民主框架提出挑战。然后，我们用三个有理论依据的实验来说明我们提议的前景，这些实验受宗教皈依历史辩论的启发。结果表明，不仅在当代的宗教中，而且在世俗的政治分歧中，都存在着明显的 "皈依效应"。相较给予或归属而言，相同的差异内容如果因皈依而产生，则更难以被容忍。该研究表明了在政治理论和政治学之间进行更多对话的好处，同时揭示了当今宽容的一个核心问题。
Tolerance underlies many contemporary controversies, yet theorists and political scientists study it in strikingly different ways. This article bridges the gap by using recent developments in political theory to enrich empirical research and extend the study of tolerance to contexts beyond liberal democracies, such as authoritarian regimes. Our recommendations challenge dominant liberal-democratic frameworks by emphasizing variation across the (1) objects of tolerance; (2) possible responses to difference; and (3) sources of tolerance. We then illustrate the promise of our recommendations with three theoretically informed experiments inspired by historical debates about religious conversion. Our results suggest a marked ‘convert effect’ across not only contemporary religious but also secular political divides, with the same difference in terms of content viewed as less tolerable when resulting from conversion than when given or ascribed. The research demonstrates the benefits of greater dialogue across political theory and political science, while shedding light on a central question of tolerance today.
08 消极偏见：在德国、瑞典和英国，移民框架对支持福利国家的影响
【题目】
Negativity Bias: The Impact of Framing of Immigration on Welfare State Support in Germany, Sweden and the UK
【作者】
Sabina Avdagic, Lee Savage
【摘要】
移民框架如何影响对福利国家的支持？本文利用心理学的研究，特别是消极偏见的概念以及消极和积极信息的排序，认为消极的移民框架会削弱福利支持，而积极的框架则几乎没有影响。个体对积极框架的关注度较低，并且消极框架往往在人们的脑海中停留更长时间，积极框架的效果往往还会被之前接触过的消极框架进一步削弱。该研究结果基于对德国、瑞典和英国9000多人的调查实验，表明移民的负面框架对福利支持有强烈而普遍的影响。此外，本文发现的一些证据表明，对持有反移民和反福利态度或感到经济不安全的人来说，这种负面效应会被进一步放大。在这三个国家中，积极框架的影响要弱得多，并没有加强对福利的支持。
How does the framing of immigration influence support for the welfare state? Drawing on research from psychology, specifically the notion of negativity bias and the sequencing of negative and positive information, this article argues that negative immigration frames undermine welfare support, while positive frames have little or no effect. Individuals take less notice of positive frames, and the effect of such frames is further undermined by the previous exposure to negative frames, which tend to stick longer in people's minds. The findings, based on survey experiments on over 9,000 individuals in Germany, Sweden and the UK, show that negative framing of immigration has a strong and pervasive effect on support for welfare. The article also finds some evidence that this effect is further amplified for people who hold anti-immigrant and anti-welfare attitudes or feel economically insecure. The effect of positive framing is considerably weaker and does not strengthen welfare support in any of the three countries.
09 在职任期排出经济投票
【题目】
Incumbent Tenure Crowds Out Economic Voting
【作者】
Martin Vinæs Larsen
【摘要】
一届政府在任期间，经济的重要性是否会发生变化？可以说，随着政府任期的推进，政府对当前的经济状况负有更大的责任。这可能会导致选民认为有经验的政府对经济状况负有更大的责任。然而，随着时间的推移，选民也会积累有关政府能力的信息。如果选民是贝叶斯学习者，那么这种不断增长的信息储备应该会挤掉当前经济状况的重要性。本文利用三个数据集探讨了这些关于任期和经济投票之间关系的不同预测。首先，利用来自不同选举的国家层面的数据，研究发现，对更有经验的政府的支持较少依赖于经济增长。其次，文章利用覆盖10个国家的60个选举调查的个人层面数据，表明当政府缺乏经验时，选民对经济的看法对政府支持度的影响更大。最后，文章研究了丹麦的一次市政改革，将部分选民分配给新的地方任职者，发现这些选民对地方经济的反应更为强烈。总的来说，这三项研究都指向同一个方向：经济投票率随着任职时间的增加而降低。
Does the importance of the economy change during a government's time in office? Governments arguably become more responsible for current economic conditions as their tenure progresses. This might lead voters to hold experienced governments more accountable for economic conditions. However, voters also accumulate information about governments' competence over time. If voters are Bayesian learners, then this growing stock of information should crowd out the importance of current economic conditions. This article explores these divergent predictions about the relationship between tenure and the economic vote using three datasets. First, using country-level data from a diverse set of elections, the study finds that support for more experienced governments is less dependent on economic growth. Secondly, using individual-level data from sixty election surveys covering ten countries, the article shows that voters' perceptions of the economy have a greater impact on government support when the government is inexperienced. Finally, the article examines a municipal reform in Denmark that assigned some voters to new local incumbents and finds that these voters responded more strongly to the local economy. In conclusion, all three studies point in the same direction: economic voting decreases with time in office.
10 当审议产生说服力而非极化对立：在田野实验中对小组动态进行测量和建模
【题目】
When Deliberation Produces Persuasion rather than Polarization: Measuring and modeling Small Group Dynamics in a Field Experiment
【作者】
Kevin M. Esterling, Archon Fung, Taeku Lee
【摘要】
本文提出了一种新的统计方法来测量小群体内的说服力，并将这种方法应用于大规模的随机审议实验。作者将 "说服 "的构成定义为个人偏好中系统成分的一种变化，与测量误差无关，说服产生于人际互动的接触。他们的方法分别测量了潜在（左右）偏好空间和特定主题偏好空间中的说服力。该模型的功能形式适应了对小群体文献中发现的实质性假设的检验。文章通过考察研究参与者对美国财政政策的看法因随机分配到的小讨论组的组成而产生的变化来说明测量方法。研究结果与小团体研究中的典型结论--“小团体两极分化定律”不一致；相反，作者观察到了与审议愿望（诉求）一致的潜在的与特定政策的说服模式。
This article proposes a new statistical method to measure persuasion within small groups, and applies this approach to a large-scale randomized deliberative experiment. The authors define the construct of ‘persuasion’ as a change in the systematic component of an individual's preference, separate from measurement error, that results from exposure to interpersonal interaction. Their method separately measures persuasion in a latent (left-right) preference space and in a topic-specific preference space. The model's functional form accommodates tests of substantive hypotheses found in the small-group literature. The article illustrates the measurement method by examining changes in study participants' views on US fiscal policy resulting from the composition of the small discussion groups to which they were randomly assigned. The results are inconsistent with the ‘law of small-group polarization’, the typical result found in small-group research; instead, the authors observe patterns of latent and policy-specific persuasion consistent with the aspirations of deliberation.
11 摆脱不参与困境：鼓励公民反映公共服务的两个田野实验
【题目】
Escaping the Disengagement Dilemma: Two Field Experiments on Motivating Citizens to Report on Public Services
【作者】
Mark T. Buntaine, Daniel L. Nielson, Jacob T. Skaggs
【摘要】
为了促进善治，公民可以直接及规律地向政府通报政策的执行情况和公共服务的提供情况。然而，当公民不期望政府作出回应时，他们就缺乏提供信息的动力，而公民的不参与又往往使政府无法有效地提供公共产品。在两个田野实验中，我们研究了有关乌干达固体废物处理服务困境的潜在补救措施。我们随机分配记者，他们由社区提名招募，并被社区领导认可，试图选择和激励信息共享。我们还随机分配记者听取政府关于如何利用他们的报告来真正改善废物处理服务的意见。社区提名和公告并没有增加报告数量，但对那些最早被招募且报道时间最长的记者来说，几个月来，政府的反应能力提高了他们的参与度，这突出了政府及时的反应能力在维持公民信息流方面的关键作用。
To promote good governance, citizens can inform governments directly and routinely about the implementation of policies and the delivery of public services. Yet citizens lack incentives to provide information when they do not expect governments to be responsive, and citizen disengagement in turn often prevents governments from providing public goods effectively. In two field experiments, we studied potential remedies to this dilemma related to solid waste services in Uganda. We randomly assigned reporters to be recruited by community nomination and to be recognized by community leaders in an attempt to select for and motivate information sharing. We also randomly assigned reporters to hear from the government about how their reports were used to make real improvements to waste services. Community nominations and public announcements did not increase reporting. However, responsiveness boosted participation over several months for reporters who had been recruited earliest and had been reporting longest, highlighting the critical role of timely government responsiveness in sustaining information flows from citizens.
12 陷入中间：中间政党的意识形态、价值和选举失败
【题目】
Stuck in the middle: Ideology, valence and the electoral failures of centrist parties
【作者】
Roi Zur
【摘要】
近年来，中间派-自由派政党，如2013年的德国自由民主党（FDP）和2015年、2017年的英国自由民主党，在选举中遭遇巨大失败。这些失败凸显了政党竞争和投票行为研究中的一个突出难题，即空心现象。也就是说，经验证据表明，尽管选民的偏好分布具有向心力，但大多数政党并没有向选民的中值位置靠拢。本文利用加拿大、芬兰、德国和英国的调查数据表明，中间派政党的价值形象恶化后，其得票率也会随之崩溃（锐减）。本文利用数学模拟表明，中间派政党重新获得支持的战略机会有限。与其他政党不同的是，中间派政党无法改变其政策纲领以弥补其恶化的价值形象。这些结果对政治代表性和选民与精英的联系具有重要启示。
In recent years centrist-liberal parties, such as the German Free Democratic Party (FDP) in 2013 and the British Liberal Democrats in 2015 and 2017, suffered enormous electoral defeats. These defeats highlight a prominent puzzle in the study of party competition and voting behavior; the empty center phenomenon. That is, empirical evidence suggests that most parties do not converge to the median voter's position, despite the centripetal force of the voters’ preference distribution. Using survey data from Canada, Finland, Germany and the United Kingdom, this article shows that deterioration of centrist parties’ valence image is followed by a collapse of their vote shares. Using mathematical simulations, this article shows that centrist parties have limited strategic opportunities to regain their support. Differently from other parties, centrist parties cannot alter their policy platforms to compensate for their deteriorated valence image. These results have important implications for political representation and voters–elite linkages.
13 为何地方政党领导不支持提名中间派
【题目】
Why Local Party Leaders Don't Support Nominating Centrists
【作者】
David E. Broockman, Nicholas Carnes, Melody Crowder-Meyer, Christopher Skovron
【摘要】
在美国的初选中给予政党领袖更多的影响力，会不会减少精英阶层的分化？有学者认为，政党领袖倾向于支持中间派候选人，以期赢得大选。相反，作者认为，许多地方政党领导人--尤其是共和党人--可能不相信中间派在选举中表现更好，因此可能不支持提名中间派。他们利用对1,118名郡级政党领导人的原始调查数据来检验这一论点。在实验中，他们发现，地方党领导人最喜欢提名与典型的同党党员相似的候选人，而不是中间派。此外，如果在更中间派和更极端的候选人之间进行选择，他们强烈倾向于极端派。民主党人做出这种选择的比例是2比1，共和党人的比例是10比1。同样，在开放性问题中，民主党领导人说他们找寻极端候选人的可能性是中间派的两倍；共和党领导人找寻极端派的可能性是5倍。可能导致这些党派差异的原因是，共和党领导人尤其可能认为极端主义者能够赢得大选，并高估了两位数的选民保守性。
Would giving party leaders more influence in primary elections in the United States decrease elite polarization? Some scholars have argued that political party leaders tend to support centrist candidates in the hopes of winning general elections. In contrast, the authors argue that many local party leaders - especially Republicans - may not believe that centrists perform better in elections and therefore may not support nominating them. They test this argument using data from an original survey of 1,118 county-level party leaders. In experiments, they find that local party leaders most prefer nominating candidates who are similar to typical co-partisans, not centrists. Moreover, given the choice between a more centrist and more extreme candidate, they strongly prefer extremists: Democrats do so by about 2 to 1 and Republicans by 10 to 1. Likewise, in open-ended questions, Democratic Party leaders are twice as likely to say they look for extreme candidates relative to centrists; Republican Party leaders are five times as likely. Potentially driving these partisan differences, Republican leaders are especially likely to believe that extremists can win general elections and overestimate the electorate's conservatism by double digits.
14 女性领导对政治辩论中女性声音的影响
【题目】
The Effects of Female Leadership on Women's Voice in Political Debate
【作者】
Jack Blumenau
【摘要】
女性领导人是否会放大其他女性在政治中的声音？作者通过研究英国下议院的议会辩论来解决这个问题。在利用内阁部长性别随时间变化的二重差分设计的背景下，文章表明，与部长是男性时相比，女性部长大大增加了其他女性议员对相关辩论的参与。文章还使用了一种测量辩论影响力的方法，这种方法基于一名议员所使用的词语被其他议员采用的程度，测量表明女性部长也会增加女性后席议员的影响力。为了探索这些结果背后的机制，作者引入了一个新的衡量指标，即部长的反应能力，并表明女部长对女性后席议员发言的反应能力明显高于男部长。
Do female leaders amplify the voices of other women in politics? The author addresses this question by examining parliamentary debates in the UK House of Commons. In the context of a difference-in-differences design that exploits over-time variation in the gender of cabinet ministers, the article demonstrates that female ministers substantially increase the participation of other female MPs in relevant debates, compared to when the minister is male. It also uses a measure of debate influence, based on the degree to which words used by one legislator are adopted by other members, to show that female ministers also increase the influence of female backbenchers. To explore the mechanisms behind these results, the author introduces a new metric of ministerial responsiveness and shows that female ministers are significantly more responsive than their male counterparts to the speeches of female backbenchers.
15 欧洲民主政体中组合设计的政治动力学
【题目】
The Political Dynamics of Portfolio Design in European Democracies
【作者】
Ulrich Sieberer, Thomas M. Meyer, Hanna Bäck, Andrea Ceron, Albert Falcó-Gimeno, Isabelle Guinaudeau, Martin Ejnar Hansen, Kristoffer Kolltveit, Tom Louwerse, Wolfgang C. Müller, Thomas Persson
【摘要】
政府组合的设计--即政府各部门和官员之间的权限分配--在行政和联合政治的研究中基本上被忽略了。本文认为，组合设计是一个具有实质意义和理论意义的现象，对制度设计和联合政治的研究具有重大意义。作者利用20世纪70年代以来9个西欧国家投资组合设计改革的比较数据，说明政府投资组合的设计是如何随时间变化的。具体而言，它们表明，政府组合的变化非常频繁（平均每年一次），而且这种变化更有可能发生在首相或政府的政党组成变化之后。这些发现表明，这些改革背后存在着基于政党和政治家的偏好和权力的政治逻辑。它们对制度设计和联盟政治的研究具有重要意义。
The design of government portfolios - that is, the distribution of competencies among government ministries and office holders - has been largely ignored in the study of executive and coalition politics. This article argues that portfolio design is a substantively and theoretically relevant phenomenon that has major implications for the study of institutional design and coalition politics. The authors use comparative data on portfolio design reforms in nine Western European countries since the 1970s to demonstrate how the design of government portfolios changes over time. Specifically, they show that portfolios are changed frequently (on average about once a year) and that such shifts are more likely after changes in the prime ministership or the party composition of the government. These findings suggest a political logic behind these reforms based on the preferences and power of political parties and politicians. They have major implications for the study of institutional design and coalition politics.
16 程序选择的政治：1811-2015年，对英国下议院中立法辩论的规范
【题目】
The Politics of Procedural Choice: Regulating Legislative Debate in the UK House of Commons, 1811-2015
【作者】
Niels D. Goet
【摘要】
英国下议院辩论规则的历史发展引出了一个重要的困惑：为什么议员（MPs）要对自己的权利进行限制？尽管人们对英国政治发展和19世纪英国政治的制度变迁越来越感兴趣，但学术文献对这一话题基本保持沉默。在对美国国会的研究中，出现了三种相互竞争的解释，主要集中在效率、党派力量和无党派（或：基于意识形态）的说法。本文大致属于第三种，对议会规则的历史发展提供了一种共识导向的解释。作者通过205年间（1811-2015年）下议院常设秩序改革的新数据集，以及超过600万次的演讲记录，认为当立法者的偏好在反对派和政府内部都很接近，且两党之间的两极分化程度较低时，议员在面对阻挠时，会更快地承诺通过限制性规则。据作者笔者所知，该研究是首次对英国议会改革的一系列竞争性理论进行了系统性和方向性的检验，揭示了下议院历史上长期以来议会改革的进程，并提出了几种新的衡量英国下议院两极分化的方法。
The historical development of rules of debate in the UK House of Commons raises an important puzzle: why do members of parliament (MPs) impose limits on their own rights? Despite a growing interest in British Political Development and the institutional changes of nineteenth-century UK politics, the academic literature has remained largely silent on this topic. Three competing explanations have emerged in studies of the US Congress, focusing on efficiency, partisan forces and non-partisan (or: ideology-based) accounts. This article falls broadly into the third category, offering a consensus-oriented explanation of the historical development of parliamentary rules. Working from a new dataset on the reform of standing orders in the House of Commons over a 205-year period (1811–2015), as well as records of over six million speeches, the author argues that MPs commit more quickly to passing restrictive rules in the face of obstruction when legislator preferences are proximate within both the opposition and government, and when polarization between both sides of the aisle is low. The research represents, to the author's knowledge, the first systematic and directional test of a range of competing theories of UK parliamentary reform, shedding light on the process of parliamentary reform over a prolonged period of Commons history, and advancing several new measures of polarization in the UK House of Commons.
17 媒体对非洲各地支持LGBTQ的影响
【题目】
Media's Influence on LGBTQ Support Across Africa
【作者】
Stephen Winkler
【摘要】
非洲各地的政治领导人经常指责媒体宣扬同性恋，而活动家则经常利用媒体宣扬亲LGBTQ(女同性恋、男同性恋、双性恋、变性人和酷儿)的叙事。尽管对媒体如何影响公众舆论已有广泛的研究，一些研究表明接触某些信息可以增加对LGBTQs的支持，但几乎没有关于媒体如何影响非洲各地对LGBTQs态度的研究。本研究发展了一种理论，解释了行为者对媒体的错杂态度，并表明不同类型的媒体如何对LGBTQs的公众舆论产生不同的影响。具体来说，研究发现，广播和电视对支持同性恋的态度没有影响，或者说是一种负面的、显著的影响，而那些消费更多的报纸、互联网或社交媒体的个人则更有可能支持LGBTQs（大约高2-4个百分点）。作者认为，这些差异效应是以某些媒介对“酷儿”表现的审查为条件的。分析证实，结果不是由选择效应驱动的，而且这种关系只适用于对LGBTQ的支持，而不针对其他社会态度。这些结果具有重要意义，特别是考虑到非洲各地同性关系日益政治化和媒体消费习惯的变化。
Political leaders across Africa frequently accuse the media of promoting homosexuality, while activists often use the media to promote pro-LGBTQ (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer) narratives. Despite extensive research on how the media affects public opinion, including studies that show how exposure to certain information can increase support of LGBTQs, there is virtually no research on how the media influences attitudes towards LGBTQs across Africa. This study develops a theory that accounts for actors' mixed approach to the media and shows how different types of media create distinct effects on public opinion of LGBTQs. Specifically, the study finds that radio and television have no, or a negative, significant effect on pro-gay attitudes, whereas individuals who consume more newspapers, internet or social media are significantly more likely to support LGBTQs (by approximately 2 to 4 per cent). The author argues that these differential effects are conditional on censorship of queer representation from certain mediums. The analysis confirms that the results are not driven by selection effects, and that the relationship is unique to LGBTQ support but not other social attitudes. The results have important implications, especially given the growing politicization of same-sex relations and changing media consumption habits across Africa..
18 有关学校构成的政治道德：宗教选择的案例
【题目】
The Political Morality of School Composition: The Case of Religious Selection
【作者】
Matthew Clayton, Andrew Mason, Adam Swift, Ruth Wareham
【摘要】
本文提出了一个评估教育政策的规范性框架，并将其应用于学校根据宗教标准选择学生的问题。这类政策可以基于许多不同的理由来证明其合理性，也可以受到质疑；公众辩论的内容并不足以完成这项任务。作者的主要目标是用非后果主义的考虑补充Brighouse等人（2016，2018）最近提出的对教育政策进行规范性评估的后果主义方法。并将所提出的框架应用于学校组成和选拔问题。他们还认为，允许学校根据父母的宗教信仰选择所有学生的政策是不合理的。
This article presents a normative framework for the assessment of education policies and applies it to the issue of schools’ selecting their students on the basis of religious criteria. Such policies can be justified, and challenged, on many different grounds; public debate is not conducted in terms adequate to the task. The authors’ main objectives are to supplement with non-consequentialist considerations a recent, consequentialist, approach to the normative assessment of education policy proposed by Brighouse et al. (2016, 2018), and to apply the proposed framework to issues of school composition and selection. They argue, further, that policies allowing schools to select all their students on the basis of their parents’ religious affiliation cannot be
justified.
19 19世纪前的穆斯林贸易和城市发展：欧洲、中东和中亚的城市化比较
【题目】
Muslim Trade and City Growth Before the Nineteenth Century: Comparative Urbanization in Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia
【作者】
Lisa Blaydes, Christopher Paik
【摘要】
长期以来，学者们一直在寻求了解中东何时以及为何在经济发展上落后于欧洲。本文探讨了历史上的穆斯林贸易对解释工业革命前的城市发展和衰退的重要性。作者研究了公元1500年前后欧亚大陆城市化模式与中东贸易路线距离的函数关系。公元1500年是欧洲在航海、贸易和探索方面取得突破的转折点。结果表明，与穆斯林历史贸易路线的距离在1200年与城市化呈正相关，但在1800年则不然。这些发现说明了为什么中东和中亚城市--长期以来受益于其在欧洲和亚洲之间的中心位置--随着欧洲人找到通往东方的替代路线并在新大陆开辟了贸易机会而衰落。
Scholars have long sought to understand when and why the Middle East fell behind Europe in its economic development. This article explores the importance of historical Muslim trade in explaining urban growth and decline in the run-up to the Industrial Revolution. The authors examine Eurasian urbanization patterns as a function of distance to Middle Eastern trade routes before and after 1500 CE - the turning point in European breakthroughs in seafaring, trade and exploration. The results suggest that proximity to historical Muslim trade routes was positively associated with urbanization in 1200 but not in 1800. These findings speak to why Middle Eastern and Central Asian cities - which had long benefited from their central location between Europe and Asia - declined as Europeans found alternative routes to the East and opened trade opportunities in the New World.
20 政治财政改革能减少腐败吗？
【题目】
Do Political Finance Reforms Reduce Corruption?
【作者】
Calla Hummel, John Gerring, Thomas Burt
【摘要】
改革者声称，公共补贴和对政治资金的监管减少了政治中的腐败，而观察家则担心它们对腐败没有影响，甚至会增加腐败。尽管进行了国家层面的辩论，也花费了数十亿美元，但很少有研究对这种关系进行检验。作者认为，政治财政改革通过降低私人资金在政治中的重要性，加大对腐败行为的制裁力度，从而减轻腐败。巴拉圭政治财政改革中的精英访谈说明了这一论点，并阐述了理论机制。该研究利用衡量175个国家1900-2015年政治补贴的原始数据集，以及来自 "民主的多样性"项目的分门别类的腐败衡量标准，对该论点进行了评估。研究结果支持这样的论点，即政治财政改革可以减少腐败，即便是在这类财政改革实施得不均衡的国家也如此。
Reformers claim that public subsidies and regulation of political finance reduce corruption in politics, while observers worry that they have no impact on corruption, or even increase it. Despite national-level debates and billions of dollars spent, few studies have tested this relationship. The authors argue that political finance reform mitigates corruption by reducing private money's importance in politics and increasing the sanctions for corrupt behavior. Elite interviews from Paraguay's political finance reform illustrate the argument and elaborate the theoretical mechanisms. The study evaluates the argument using an original dataset measuring political subsidies from 175 countries from 1900-2015, as well as disaggregated corruption measures from the Varieties of Democracy project. The findings support the thesis that political finance reform reduces corruption, even in countries where such reforms are unevenly implemented.
翻 译：张 宏
校 对：田舒宁
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编辑：焦 磊
审核：焦 磊
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