国际顶刊 | 《比较政治研究》2021年第7、8期
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让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
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政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《比较政治研究》2021年第54卷第7、8期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
Comparative Political Studies（比较政治研究）是美国SAGE出版社旗下学术期刊，创刊于1968年，期刊每月出版一次，主要探讨比较政治学相关内容，期刊现任主编为明尼苏达大学教授David Samuels。过去五年的影响因子为4.262，在176个政治科学类期刊中排名第12。
期刊研究领域和收录范围包括：比较政治学理论研究、全球比较政治学研究、国内比较政治学研究等。
PART 2
期刊目录
Voter and Legislator Responses to Localized Trade Shocks from China in Brazil
巴西的选民和立法者对来自中国的地区化贸易冲击的反应
Barking Up the Wrong Tree: How Political Alignment Shapes Electoral Backlash from Natural Disasters
误入歧途：政治结盟如何影响自然灾害带来的选民反弹
The Politics of Ethnic Identity in Sub-Saharan Africa
撒哈拉以南非洲的族群认同政治
The Simplest Government Heuristic of All: Citizens Infer that Governing Parties are Pro-European Union
最简单的政府启发式方法：公民推断执政党是否亲欧盟
Crisis and Convergence: How the Combination of a Weak Economy and Mainstream Party Ideological DePolarization Fuels AntiSystem Support
危机与趋同：经济疲软与主流政党去极化如何壮大了反体制支持
Will Women Executives Reduce Corruption? Marginalization and Network Inclusion
女性行政人员会减少腐败吗？边缘化与网络包容
Insurgency and Ivory: The Territorial Origins of Illicit Resource Extraction in Civil Conflicts
叛乱与象牙:国内冲突中非法资源开采的领土根源
Erosion of Civilian Control in Democracies: A Comprehensive Framework for Comparative Analysis
民主国家文官控制的侵蚀:比较分析的综合框架
From Benefits and Beneficiaries: The Historical Origins of Old-Age Pensions From a Political Regime Perspective
从福利和受益人看：政治制度视角下的养老金的历史渊源
Shoring Up Autocracy: Participatory Technologies and Regime Support in Putin’s Russia
支持独裁:普京时代俄罗斯的参与式技术和政权支持
Corrigendum to“Marginal Effects in Interaction Models: Determining and Controlling the False
Positive Rate”
“交互模型中的边际效应:确定和控制假阳性率”的勘误
PART 3
精选译文
01巴西的选民和立法者对来自中国的地区化贸易冲击的反应
【题目】
Voter and Legislator Responses to Localized Trade Shocks from China in Brazil
【作者】
Daniela Campello；Francisco Urdinez
【摘要】
本文研究了来自中国的地区化贸易冲击是否影响巴西人对与中国交往的看法。我们检验了以下假设。(1)由于贸易冲击是地区化的，对贸易的看法应该在地区层面而不是在个人层面形成，(2)由于地区化的贸易冲击对同一地区的工人和公司都有影响，它们也应该影响立法者对中国的看法。我们的分析发现，这两种说法都得到了支持，但只发生在“贸易输家”之中。在进口冲击中利益受损的当地居民和立法者，对于巴西与中国的经济关系往往持负面看法，即使在出口冲击中获益的当地居民和立法者并没有表现出对中国更积极的看法。我们的论文纳入了贸易偏好形成的中观层次理论，并确立了选区利益影响立法者对国际贸易看法的条件，从而对贸易政治的文献做出了贡献。
This paper examines whether localized trade shocks from China influence Brazilians’ views on integration with the country. We test the following hypotheses: (1) as trade shocks are localized, views on trade should form at the local, rather than at the individual level, and (2) as localized trade shocks affect both workers and companies in a same region, they should also influence legislators’ views on China. Our analyses find support for both claims, but only among losers from Chinese trade. Residents and legislators from localities hurt by import shocks tend to hold negative views about economic ties with China, whereas neither residents nor legislators from localities benefitted by export shocks exhibit more positive views about the country. Our paper contributes to the literature on the politics of trade by incorporating meso-level theories of trade preference formation and by establishing the conditions under which the interests of constituencies should shape legislators’ views on international trade.
02误入歧途：政治结盟如何影响自然灾害带来的选民反弹
【题目】
Barking Up the Wrong Tree: How Political Alignment Shapes Electoral Backlash from Natural Disasters
【作者】
Brian Blankenship; Ryan Kennedy; Johannes Urpelainen; Joonseok Yang
【摘要】
虽然关于“回顾性投票”的学术研究发现，在任政治家可能会因一系列超出其控制范围的事件而受到惩罚，但文献很少关注不同政府级别之间的政治结盟在灾难应对中的作用及其对投票决定的影响。我们认为，回顾性的选民在自然灾害中只惩罚“在任反对派”（在职但与政府领导人不一致的候选人），这些“在任反对派”只有有限的机会获得救济资源和应对灾害的资源。我们使用每月的降水量和蒸发量数据来获取1977-2007年印度四千多个邦议会选区的旱涝状况。与我们的假设一致，我们发现在季风季节的恶劣天气条件下，来自总理或首席部长政党的邦议会议员不会面临选举反弹，而反对派政治家则面临重大损失。
While scholarship on “retrospective voting” has found that incumbent politicians can be punished for a range of events outside their control, the literature has paid scant attention to the role of political alignment between the different levels of government in disaster responses and its implications for voting decisions. We argue that retrospective voters punish only opposition incumbents (candidates in office but not aligned with the government leader), who have limited access to government resources for relief, for natural disasters. We use monthly data on precipitation and evaporation to capture droughts and floods in India’s four thousand State Assembly electoral constituencies over the years 1977–2007. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that Members of State Assembly from the party of the Prime or Chief Minister do not face an electoral backlash under bad weather conditions during the monsoon season, whereas opposition politicians face major losses.
03 撒哈拉以南非洲的族群认同政治
【题目】
The Politics of Ethnic Identity in Sub-Saharan Africa
【作者】
Elliott Green
【摘要】
近期的文献表明，非洲总统倾向于以同族人为庇护对象，尤其是在非民主国家。进一步结合激励机制推动族群认同变化的证据，本文提出，总统族群认同的变化会导致更多的人认同总统所在的族群。本文使用了14个非洲国家总统过渡时期的调查数据，发现在非民主国家，总统的族群变化导致了更多比例的受访者认同新的执政族群群体，而且这种变化随着专制程度的提高而增加。本文还表明，当公民国家的族群偏袒度更高时，转换族群认同的水平更高。来自赞比亚的内部调查证据显示，这种转变是直接的，而来自现代早期中国的案例研究证据表明，这种现象并不限于撒哈拉以南的非洲。
Recent literature suggests that African Presidents tend to target co-ethnics with patronage, especially in non-democracies. Coupled with evidence on the role of incentives in driving ethnic identity change, I propose that a change in the ethnic identity of the President should lead to an increase in the proportion of people identifying with the President’s ethnic group. I use survey data from fourteen African countries with Presidential transitions to show that ethnic Presidential change leads to an upwards shift in the percentage of respondents identifying with the new ruling ethnic group in non-democracies, and that this shift increases with the level of autocracy. I also show that countries where citizens perceive more ethnic favoritism see higher levels of ethnic switching. Within-survey evidence from Zambia demonstrates that this shift is immediate, and case study evidence from early modern China suggests that this phenomenon is not limited to Sub-Saharan Africa.
04 最简单的政府启发式方法：公民推断执政党是否亲欧盟
【题目】
The Simplest Government Heuristic of All: Citizens Infer that Governing Parties are Pro-European Union
【作者】
James Adams, Luca Bernardi, and M. Christine Phillips
【摘要】
以前的研究表明，公民运用 "联盟启发式 "来推断执政联盟伙伴的政策和意识形态比其选举宣言中暗示的更为相似（译者注：启发式是一种心理学用词，它强调一种触发式的快速的问题解决方式）。我们提出了更简单的与政府有关的启发式，公民可以应用它来推断政党对欧洲一体化的立场：现任政府启发式认为目前的执政党比反对党更亲欧洲，而长期反对派启发式认为从未执政的反对党比有过执政经验的反对党更不亲欧洲。我们报告了对24个欧盟成员国调查数据的理论和实证分析，证实了公民应用这些启发式方法，这影响了公民的政策信仰和他们对政党的支持。我们还发现证据表明，公民对政策的反应受到选举宣言和专家调查的影响。
Previous research documents that citizens apply a “coalition heuristic” to infer that governing coalition partners share more similar policies and ideologies than are implied by the statements in their election manifestos. We propose even simpler government-related heuristics citizens can apply to infer party positions on European integration: the current government heuristic that currently governing parties are more pro-Europe than opposition parties, and the long-term opposition heuristic that opposition parties that have never governed are less pro-Europe than opposition parties with previous governing experience. We report theoretical and empirical analyses of survey data from 24 European Union member states, which substantiate that citizens apply these heuristics, which have consequences for citizens’ policy beliefs and their party support. We also find evidence that citizens respond to policy as measured through election manifestos and expert surveys.
05危机与趋同：经济疲软与主流政党去极化如何壮大了反体制支持
【题目】
Crisis and Convergence: How the Combination of a Weak Economy and Mainstream Party Ideological DePolarization Fuels AntiSystem Support
【作者】
Zack P. Grant
【摘要】
激进党派何时获得支持？以前的研究认为，经济状况及主流政党的意识形态趋同都对这一问题有重要影响。针对此前研究结果的不一致性，我从互动路径的角度进行分析。当主流党派同时主持着疲软的经济，而又不能为选民提供如何应对经济不景气的多种政治观点时，反体制的政党就会成功，否则对现状的不满就会通过主流党派的政策得到传达和宣泄。有两项研究支持这种 "危机和趋同 "模式。在总体层面上，在经济负增长和主流政党意识形态普遍去极化的时期，反体制的投票最为强烈。在选民层面，在（主流政党意识形态）体制化趋同期间，负面的经济评价和激进的政党投票之间的联系更强，反之亦然，在宏观经济不景气时，个人对趋同的看法与对这些政党的支持更密切相关。主流政党的同质性使经济投票变得激进，并加强了反体制的挑战者。
When do radical parties gain support? Previous studies cite the economy and mainstream party ideological convergence as important. Responding to earlier inconsistent findings, I provide evidence for an interactive approach. Anti-system parties succeed when mainstream parties are simultaneously presiding over an ailing economy and failing to provide the diversity of political opinion for the electorate to meaningfully challenge the policies associated with this malaise, through which dissatisfaction with the status quo could otherwise be channeled. Two studies support this “crisis and convergence” model. At the aggregate-level, the anti-system vote is strongest during times of negative economic growth and widespread mainstream party ideological de-polarization. At the voter-level, the link between negative economic evaluations and radical party voting is stronger during establishment convergence and, vice versa, personal perceptions of convergence are themselves more closely related to support for these parties when the macroeconomy is sickly. Mainstream party homogeneity radicalizes the economic vote and strengthens anti-system challengers.
06 女性行政人员会减少腐败吗？边缘化与网络包容
【题目】
Will Women Executives Reduce Corruption? Marginalization and Network Inclusion
【作者】
Monika Bauhr；Nicholas Charron
【摘要】
虽然最近的研究发现，女性在民选职位中的比例与较低的腐败水平之间有很大的关系，但我们还不是很了解，女性担任行政职务是否会导致腐败水平的降低，以及这种影响是否会随着时间的推移而持续。本研究表明，女市长降低了腐败水平，但这种有利影响可能会随着时间的推移而减弱。使用回归不连续和第一差分设计，结合新收集的法国市政选举数据和2005年至2016年期间所有市政合同的腐败风险数据，我们表明，女市长减少了腐败风险。然而，主要是新当选的女市长推动了这一结果，当该候选人再次成为女市长后，性别差异可以忽略不计。我们的结果为边缘化理论提供了支持，但也表明，能够适应腐败网络的女性可以在官场中“幸存”。
While recent studies find a strong association between the share of women in elected office and lower levels of corruption, we know less about if women in executive office cause reductions in corruption levels, and if such effects last over time. This study suggests that women mayors reduce corruption levels, but that the beneficial effect may be weakened over time. Using both regression discontinuity and first difference designs with newly collected data on French municipal elections combined with corruption risk data on close to all municipal contracts awarded between 2005 and 2016, we show that women mayors reduce corruption risks. However, newly elected women mayors drive the results, while gender differences are negligible in municipalities where women mayors are re-elected. Our results can be interpreted as providing support for marginalization theories, but also suggest that the women that adapt to corrupt networks survive in office.
07叛乱与象牙:国内冲突中非法资源开采的领土根源
【题目】
Insurgency and Ivory: The Territorial Origins of Illicit Resource Extraction in Civil Conflicts
【作者】
Felix Haass
【摘要】
自然资源的存在使国内冲突更有可能爆发，持续时间更长，也更难结束。然而，叛军并不总是在他们所处的任何地方开采资源。为什么?我认为当叛军与政府争夺领土权力时，他们会攫取更多的资源。领土竞争促进了黑市准入，产生了财政压力，并产生了政府激励，促使叛乱分子开采自然资源。我在双层研究设计中测试了这个命题。首先，我证明在全球样本（范围）中，中等程度的领土控制预示着叛乱分子会开采更多的资源。随后，我关注象牙偷猎的例子，它提供了一个通常隐藏的资源提取过程中的罕见一瞥。我将受冲突影响的非洲国家中按空间分类的冲突事件数据与次国家的偷猎数据进行匹配，结果表明，叛乱分子寻求领土控制大大增加了偷猎率。这些发现突出了领土竞争形成反叛犯罪行为的战略条件。
The presence of natural resources makes civil conflicts more likely to erupt, last longer, and more difficult to end. Yet rebels do not always exploit resources wherever they are present. Why? I argue that rebels extract more resources when they compete with governments over territorial authority. Territorial competition facilitates black market access, generates financial pressure, and produces governance incentives for rebels to extract natural resources. I test this proposition in a two-tiered research design. First, I show globally that moderate territorial control predicts more resource extraction by rebels. Subsequently, I focus on the example of ivory poaching which offers a rare glimpse into the usually hidden resource extraction process. I match spatially disaggregated conflict event data to subnational poaching data in conflict-affected African countries. Results show that rebels seeking territorial control substantially increase poaching rates. These findings highlight the strategic conditions under which territorial competition shapes rebel criminal behavior.
08 民主国家文官控制的侵蚀:比较分析的综合框架
【题目】
Erosion of Civilian Control in Democracies: A Comprehensive Framework for Comparative Analysis
【作者】
Polina Beliakova
【摘要】
文官治军是民主的一个基本属性。虽然民主国家不太容易发生政变，但将文官控制作为因变量的研究大多关注政变。在这篇论文中，我认为预测专制国家政变的因素，以不同的方式削弱了民主国家中文官对军队的控制。为了捕捉这种差异，我提出了一个新的综合框架，包括竞争、不服从和顺从对文官控制的侵蚀。我在国内冲突的条件下检验了这一论点——这是一个有利于削弱文官控制的环境。一项大样本分析证实，虽然国家内部冲突不会导致民主国家的政变，但它增加了军队对政府的介入，这表明正在发生其他形式的侵蚀。本文进一步对第一次车臣战争进行案例分析，揭示了新框架背后的因果逻辑，有助于对不同政权之间的文武关系进行细致的比较分析。
Civilian control of the military is a fundamental attribute of democracy. While democracies are less coup-prone, studies treating civilian control as a dependent variable mostly focus on coups. In this paper, I argue that the factors predicting coups in autocracies, weaken civilian control of the military in democracies in different ways. To capture this difference, I advance a new comprehensive framework that includes the erosion of civilian control by competition, insubordination, and deference. I test the argument under conditions of an intrastate conflict—a conducive environment for the erosion of civilian control. A large-N analysis confirms that while intrastate conflict does not lead to coups in democracies, it increases the military’s involvement in government, pointing to alternative forms of erosion taking place. Further case study—Russia’s First Chechen War—demonstrates the causal logic behind the new framework, contributing to the nuanced comparative analysis of civil-military relations across regimes.
09 从福利和受益人看：政治制度视角下的养老金的历史渊源
【题目】
From Benefits and Beneficiaries: The Historical Origins of Old-Age Pensions From a Political Regime Perspective
【作者】
Aline Grünewald
【摘要】
从政治体制的角度研究养老金的历史渊源，在全球范围内尚属罕见。基于新的PENLEG数据集，本文首次发现民主政体和非民主政体在设计养老金时具有不同的政策优先级。尽管民主国家的法定养老金覆盖率明显高于非民主国家，但在养老金替代率方面可以发现相反的模式。这项研究还表明，时间效应和殖民遗留问题很重要。长期民主国家的法定养老金覆盖率远远高于最近民主化的国家。此外，法国的殖民遗产刺激了非洲独裁国家法定养老金的高覆盖率。这些发现强调了在分析政治体制差异时考虑福利计划多维度的重要性。此外，从政治体制的角度对福利政策进行理论化时，必须注意其历史背景。
Global studies on the historical origins of old-age pensions from a political regime perspective are quite rare. Based on the novel PENLEG dataset this article shows that democratic and nondemocratic regimes had different policy priorities when designing old-age pensions for the first time. Whereas democracies had significantly higher legal pension coverage rates than nondemocratic regimes, the reverse pattern can be found for pension replacement rates. The study also shows that temporal effects and colonial legacy mattered. Longstanding democracies introduced much higher legal pension coverage rates than countries that had recently democratized. Additionally, the French colonial legacy spurred high legal pension coverage rates in African autocracies. These findings underline the importance of taking the multidimensionality of welfare programs into account when analyzing political regime differences. Moreover, due attention must be paid to the historical context when theorizing about welfare policies from a political regime perspective.
10 支持独裁:普京时代俄罗斯的参与式技术和政权支持
【题目】
Shoring Up Autocracy: Participatory Technologies and Regime Support in Putin’s Russia
【作者】
Hannah S. Chapman
独裁者如何获得支持? 本次研究认为，独裁者通过创造和维护参与式技术——促进公民和领导人之间双向互动的精英—大众传播策略——以促进支持。参与式技术为公民提供了在其他封闭的政治体系中拥有有限发言权的机会。我通过在俄罗斯进行的一系列具有全国代表性的调查实验来验证这一理论。结果表明，对参与式技术的认识提高了普京总统的支持率并改善了人们对政治中存在发声机会的看法。这一发现与此前认为公众舆论主要受到参与影响的研究不同。此外，我证明了这些效应可以直接归因于这些策略的沟通形式，而不是发布决议或领导效应。最后，我论证了导致政治两极分化并打开反对政权潜在可能性的影响取决于公民个人的政治成熟度和政治经验。
How do autocrats build support? This study argues that autocrats create and maintain participatory technologies—elite-mass communication strategies that promote two-way interaction between citizens and leaders—to foster support. Participatory technologies provide citizens with the opportunity to have a limited voice in otherwise closed political systems. I test this theory through a series of two nationally-representative survey experiments in Russia. Results suggest that awareness of participatory technologies increases approval of President Putin and improves perceptions that there are opportunities for voice in politics. This finding departs from previous research that suggests public opinion is influenced primarily by participation. Furthermore, I demonstrate that these effects can be directly attributed to the communicative format of these strategies, not to issue resolution or leadership effects. Finally, I demonstrate that effects are dependent upon individuals’political sophistication and political priors, contributing to political polarization and opening up the potential for backlash against the regime.
11 “交互模型中的边际效应:确定和控制假阳性率”的勘误
【题目】
Corrigendum to“Marginal Effects in Interaction Models: Determining and Controlling the False Positive Rate”
【作者】
Justin Esarey；Jane L. Sumner
【摘要】
在Esarey和Sumner发表后，我们认识到论文中存在实质性的重大错误。我们在这里纠正这些错误。我们在另一篇不相关的论文中发现了这些错误，其中一位合著者希望在这篇论文中应用类似的方法。Brambor等人的程序在分别测试多个假设时过于自信，这一点在我们的论文中得到了正确的阐述。然而，当联合检验多个假设时，Brambor等人的方法是合适的。我们在第1161至1163页上建议的程序，以纠正在分离检验多个假设的情况下的过度自信（基于Benjamini和Hochberg）（据我们所知）是正确的，但有几个限制没有在本文中说明。这次勘误列出了所有的错误和限制，并为我们的交互测试软件增添了一个更稳健的程序。
After publication of Esarey and Sumner, we recognized substantively significant errors in the paper. We correct those errors here. We discovered these errors as part of work on another, unrelated paper to which one co-author hoped to apply similar methods. The Brambor et al. procedure is overconfident when separately testing multiple hypotheses, as correctly stated in our paper. However, when conjointly testing multiple hypotheses, the Brambor et al. procedure is appropriate. The procedure we suggest on pp. 1161—1163 to correct for overconfidence in the case of separate testing of multiple hypothesis (based on Benjamini and Hochberg) is (to our knowledge) correct, but subject to several limitations unstated in the paper. This corrigendum lays out all errors and limitations and adds a more robust procedure to our interaction Test software.
翻 译：王智灏 李璐雅
校 对：王智灏 李璐雅
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编辑：王智灏 李璐雅
审核：焦磊
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