国际顶刊 | 《比较政治研究》2021年第12期及第14期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《比较政治研究》2021年第54卷第12期及第14期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
Comparative Political Studies（比较政治研究）是一个比较政治学者和学生交流思想的国际顶刊之一。期刊刊载的文章包括了全球学者关于比较方法论、理论和研究的创新工作。该刊力图向读者展现全球范围内比较政治研究的全景式画面：从第三世界的民主到中东的文武关系，从东欧的选举制度和政党政治到拉丁美洲的经济表现，从比较北美和西欧的政治庇护到亚洲国家的民族冲突。
《比较政治研究》被认为是政治科学中比较政治子领域最为重要的期刊之一。该期刊5年影响因子是6.058，在Journal Citation Reports（JCR）政治科学（Political Science)研究领域的183种期刊中排名第14。
PART 2
期刊目录
How “Us” and “Them” Relates to Voting Behavior—Social Structure, Social Identities, and Electoral Choice
“我们”和“他们”如何与投票行为相关——社会结构、社会认同和投票选择
Team and Nation: Sports, Nationalism, and Attitudes Toward Refugees
代表队与国家：体育、民族主义和对难民的态度
Policy-Making in Multi-Level Systems: Ideology, Authority, and Education
多层次系统中的政策制定：意识形态、权威和教育
The Representational Effects of Communal Property: Evidence from Peru’s Indigenous Groups
公共财产对政治代表的影响：来自秘鲁原住民群体的证据
Competing for Loyalists? How Party Positioning Affects Populist Radical Right Voting
争夺忠诚者？政党定位如何影响民粹主义极右翼选民投票行为
The Long-Term Impact of Mobilization and Repression on Political Trust
动员和镇压对政治信任的长期影响
Parliamentary Representation and the Normalization of Radical Right Support
议会代表和激进右翼支持的正常化
Personal Proximity and Reactions to Terrorism
个人邻近性和对恐怖主义的反应Colonial Education, Political Elites, and Regional Political Inequality in Africa
殖民教育、政治精英和非洲的区域政治不平等Insiders, Outsiders, Skills, and Preferences for Social Protection: Evidence From a Survey Experiment in Argentina
内部人、外部人、技能和对社会保护的偏好：来自阿根廷调查实验的证据
Why Physical Barriers Backfire: How Immigration Enforcement Deters Return and Increases Asylum Applications
为什么物理障碍适得其反：移民执法如何阻碍移民回国和增加庇护申请
PART 3
精选译文
01 “我们”和“他们”如何与投票行为相关——社会结构、社会认同和投票选择
【题目】
How “Us” and “Them” Relates to Voting Behavior—Social Structure, Social Identities, and Electoral Choice
【作者】
Simon Bornschier, Silja Häusermann, Delia Zollinger, Céline Colombo
【摘要】
在过去的几十年里，发达民主国家出现了新左翼与极右翼之间的分歧。我们研究这种普遍主义—特殊主义的分歧是如何演化为完全的断裂，包括结构、政治和认同因素。到目前为止，在如何沿着这条鸿沟划定群体内外的标准界限方面，关于选民自身认为与此相关的身份认同的研究很少。根据一项来源于选举调整典型案例的瑞士的原始调查，作者表明选民的“客观”社会人口特征与独特的、主要是文化蕴涵的身份认同相关。然后我们调查这些群体认同被政治化的程度，即它们是否划分了新的左翼和极右翼选民。作者的研究结果有力地证实了普遍主义—特殊主义的“分歧”不仅捆绑了问题，而且塑造了人们如何看待自己是谁，以及其在与经济和文化相结合的群体冲突中所处的位置。
The last decades have seen the emergence of a divide pitting the new left against the far right in advanced democracies. We study how this universalism-particularism divide is crystallizing into a full-blown cleavage, complete with structural, political and identity elements. So far, little research exists on the identities that voters themselves perceive as relevant for drawing in- and out-group boundaries along this divide. Based on an original survey from Switzerland, a paradigmatic case of electoral realignment, we show that voters’ “objective” socio-demographic characteristics relate to distinctive, primarily culturally connoted identities. We then inquire into the degree to which these group identities have been politicized, that is, whether they divide new left and far right voters. Our results strongly suggest that the universalism-particularism “cleavage” not only bundles issues, but shapes how people think about who they are and where they stand in a group conflict that meshes economics and culture.
02代表队与国家：体育、民族主义和对难民的态度
【题目】
Team and Nation: Sports, Nationalism, and Attitudes Toward Refugees
【作者】
Leah R. Rosenzweig, Yang-Yang Zhou
【摘要】
重大的国家事件如何影响对非本国公民的态度？最近的研究表明，国家体育代表队的胜利有助于培养民族自豪感，削弱同族依恋，并在国家外来群体成员之间培育信任。本文提出了一个相关问题：通过增强民族主义，这些胜利是否也会影响对国家外来群体的态度，特别是对难民？作者使用肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚之间的 2019 年非洲杯足球赛（肯尼亚以微弱优势获胜）以及对通过 Facebook 招募的 2,647 名受访者进行的在线调查实验来研究这个问题。作者发现，赢得比赛会增强民族自豪感并强化将资源分配给外来群体的偏好趋势，但这也会导致关于难民对国家多样性贡献的负面看法。然而，作者提供的实验证据表明，将国家体育胜利重新定义为不同运动员之间合作的产物并强调共同的国家身份可以抵消这些观点并有助于树立对难民的积极态度。
How do major national events influence attitudes toward non-nationals? Recent research suggests that national sports team wins help foster national pride, weaken ethnic attachments, and build trust among conational out-group members. This paper asks a related question: By heightening nationalism, do these victories also affect attitudes toward foreign out-groups, specifically refugees? We examine this question using the 2019 Africa Cup football match between Kenya and Tanzania, which Kenya narrowly won, coupled with an online survey experiment conducted with a panel of 2,647 respondents recruited through Facebook. We find that winning increases national pride and preferences for resource allocation toward conationals, but it also leads to negative views of refugees’ contribution to the country’s diversity. However, we present experimental evidence that reframing national sports victories as a product of cooperation among diverse players and highlighting shared superordinate identities can offset these views and help foster positive attitudes toward refugees.
03 多层次系统中的政策制定：意识形态、权威和教育
【题目】
Policy-Making in Multi-Level Systems: Ideology, Authority, and Education
【作者】
Julian L. Garritzmann, Leonce Röth, Hanna Kleider【摘要】
大多数政治系统由多个层次组成。尽管这一事实已得到广泛承认，但令人惊讶的是，我们对其对决策的影响知之甚少。大多数比较研究仍然只停留在国家层面。作者认为应该避免“国家主义方法论”和“次国家主义方法论”。相反，作者认为，在多层次系统中，国家和国家以下各级政府共同影响决策。然而，它们各自的影响取决于政策权威的分配。此外，我们发现权力不对称现象的存在，因为地方政府几乎不影响中央集权系统的决策，而即使在分权体制中，国家政府也会影响地方决策。根据经验，作者研究了教育政策的案例。通过对21年间15个国家282个地区的地区教育支出、地区和国家政府意识形态以及地区教育权威的数据进行考察，研究结果突出地反映出意识形态与各级权力分配之间的相互作用，由此，作者最后总结勾勒出相关的研究议程。
Most political systems consist of multiple layers. While this fact is widely acknowledged, we know surprisingly little about its implications for policy-making. Most comparative studies still focus exclusively on the national level. We posit that both “methodological nationalism” and “methodological subnationalism” should be avoided. We argue instead that in multilevel systems national and subnational governments jointly affect policy-making. Their respective influence is, however, conditional on the distribution of policy authority. Moreover, we identify power asymmetries, as subnational governments hardly affect policy-making in centralized systems whereas national governments shape subnational policy-making even in decentralized polities. Empirically, we study the case of education policy. Novel data on regional education spending, regional and national governments’ ideology, and regional authority over education in 282 regions in 15 countries over 21 years reveals strong support for the interplay between ideology and the distribution of authority across levels. We conclude by sketching a resulting research agenda.
04公共财产对政治代表的影响：来自秘鲁原住民群体的证据
【题目】
The Representational Effects of Communal Property: Evidence from Peru’s Indigenous Groups
【作者】
Christopher L. Carter
【摘要】
为什么一部分原住民能够实现同族政治代表，而其他部分则没有？本文强调了公共财产在塑造原住民代表性方面的主要作用。虽然学者们经常称赞集体土地所有权的发展优势，但作者认为将集体所有土地制度化会抑制原住民协调从而阻碍其政治代表的实现。在集体所有土地非制度化的地区，原住民群体更有可能投资于促进集体行动以选举同族候选人担任政治职务的传统政治制度。相反，授予公共财产所有权可确保原住民获得土地，但在此过程中会侵蚀传统政治制度，而正是这些制度将促进选举期间的集体行动。作者使用多种方法验证其论点，包括对三百名秘鲁原住民领袖的采访和实验、历史土地所有权数据以及从市长候选人简历中获取的信息。研究结果表明，常被提及的公共财产的经济益处可能会产生负面的政治影响。
Why do some indigenous groups achieve coethnic political representation while others do not? In this paper, I highlight the primary role of communal property in shaping indigenous representation. While scholars often laud the developmental benefits of communal land titling, I argue that formalizing collectively held land can inhibit indigenous coordination to achieve political representation. Where communal land is informally held, indigenous groups are more likely to invest in traditional institutions that facilitate collective action to elect coethnic candidates to political office. Conversely, titling communal property secures indigenous land access but in the process erodes traditional institutions that would otherwise promote collective action during elections. I test my argument using a multi-method approach that includes interviews and experiments with three-hundred Peruvian indigenous leaders, historical land-title data, and information scraped from mayoral candidate CVs. The findings suggest that the oft-cited economic benefits of collective property may generate negative political effects.
05争夺忠诚者？政党定位如何影响民粹主义极右翼选民投票行为
【题目】
Competing for Loyalists? How Party Positioning Affects Populist Radical Right Voting
【作者】
Winston Chou, Rafaela Dancygier, Naoki Egami, Amaney A. Jamal
【摘要】
随着民粹主义极右翼政党在许多民主国家获得越来越多的支持，一个重要的问题是主流政党如何重新赢得选民支持。以德国为例，作者提供了原始面板数据，表明支持德国选择党（AfD）——该国最大的民粹主义极右翼政党——的选民同具有根深蒂固的反建制观点的党派忠诚者相类似，而他们似乎无法被主流政党夺回。然而，这种忠诚不仅反映了反建制投票，还反映了僵化的党派议题定位。尽管政党忠诚度的描述性证据较强，但实验证据表明，当主流政党迎合他们的偏好时，许多德国选择党（AfD）选民会改变忠诚度。然而，对于大多数各方来说，这种重新定位的成本极高。虽然主流政党可以通过限制性移民政策吸引民粹主义极右翼分子，但他们这样做会疏远自身的选民。通过考察不同问题维度、政党和选民群体的立场变化，作者的研究表明，如果议题偏好或显著性没有发生重大变化，当前现状是一种均势。
As populist radical right parties muster increasing support in many democracies, an important question is how mainstream parties can recapture their voters. Focusing on Germany, we present original panel evidence that voters supporting the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)—the country’s largest populist radical right party—resemble partisan loyalists with entrenched anti-establishment views, seemingly beyond recapture by mainstream parties. Yet this loyalty does not only reflect anti-establishment voting, but also gridlocked party-issue positioning. Despite descriptive evidence of strong party loyalty, experimental evidence reveals that many AfD voters change allegiances when mainstream parties accommodate their preferences. However, for most parties this repositioning is extremely costly. While mainstream parties can attract populist radical right voters via restrictive immigration policies, they alienate their own voters in doing so. Examining position shifts across issue dimensions, parties, and voter groups, our research demonstrates that, absent significant changes in issue preferences or salience, the status quo is an equilibrium.
06 动员和镇压对政治信任的长期影响
【题目】
The Long-Term Impact of Mobilization and Repression on Political Trust
【作者】
Scott W. Desposato, Gang Wang, Jason Y. Wu
【摘要】
威权政权以镇压和审查的方式来应对具有威胁的学生运动。在许多情况下，失败的运动从公众记忆中被有效地抹去。这类运动对长期态度有影响吗？我们使用对大学毕业生的调查来衡量失败的学生运动的影响。我们的一些受访者在临近重大抗议前开始上大学；另一些人在运动被镇压后才开始上大学。我们使用模糊断点回归的方法发现在超过25年后，运动期间上大学的人比抗议后入学的人更不信任政府。且这种效应对中央政府信任的影响最大，对地方政府的影响最弱。这些结果对一系列规范都是稳健的，结果表明即便所讨论的事件仍是禁忌，但大众动员和国家镇压的经历仍能对公众态度产生长期影响。
Authoritarian regimes respond to threatening student movements with repression and censorship. In many cases, failed movements are effectively erased from public memory. Do such movements affect long-term attitudes? We use a survey of college graduates to measure the impact of a failed student movement. Some of our respondents began college immediately before a major protest; others started after the movement had been suppressed. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity, we find that individuals who attended college during the movement are significantly less likely to trust the government, more than 25 years later, than individuals who enrolled after the protests. The effects are strongest for trust in the central government, and weakest for local government. These results are robust to a range of specifications, and show that the experience of mass mobilization and state repression can have a long-term impact on public attitudes, even if the event in question remains taboo.
07 议会代表和激进右翼支持的正常化
【题目】
Parliamentary Representation and the Normalization of Radical Right Support
【作者】
Vicente Valentim
【摘要】
被污名化的政治偏好如何变得正常？本文认为激进右翼的议会代表能够使激进右翼的支持正常化。激进右翼的政客往往会违背既定的社会规范，因此他们的支持者有动机隐瞒这种支持。然而，当激进右翼代表进入议会时，其选民可能会认为自己的观点已经合法化，从而更倾向于表达个人偏好。本文用三项研究来检验这个论点。研究 1 使用断点回归来比较激进右翼政党 (RRPs)在议会代表门槛以上和以下的投票漏报情况。研究 2 借助访谈方法比较了在选举后调查（post-electoral surveys）中表明支持激进右翼政党的人数情况。研究 3 使用双重差分法考察了进入议会前后英国独立党（UKIP）投票的漏报情况。研究结果支持了以上论点，并强调了政治制度在界定社会行为可接受性方面的作用。
How do stigmatized political preferences become normalized? I argue that the parliamentary representation of the radical right normalizes radical right support. Radical right politicians breach established social norms. Hence their supporters have an incentive to conceal that support. When the radical right enters parliament, however, its voters are likely to perceive that their views have been legitimized, becoming more likely to display their private preferences. I use three studies to test this argument. Study 1 employs a regression discontinuity comparing the underreport of voting for radical right parties (RRPs) above and below thresholds of parliamentary representation. Study 2 compares how much individuals report liking RRPs in post-electoral surveys depending on interview mode. Study 3 employs a difference-in-differences that looks into the underreport of UKIP vote before and after entering parliament. The results support the argument and highlight the role of political institutions in defining the acceptability of behaviors in society.
08 个人邻近性和对恐怖主义的反应
【题目】
Personal Proximity and Reactions to Terrorism
【作者】
Mattias Agerberg, Jacob Sohlberg
【摘要】
我们在斯德哥尔摩市中心发生恐怖袭击后随即对超过2万名参与者进行调查的一项面板研究中，研究了与瑞典其他地方的人相比，第一手恐怖经历增加影响的可能性。我们在数据中使用匹配和假设随机变化来识别个人邻近性的影响。我们发现接近袭击的人认为自己受到的影响更大，这能够证明这次经历的鲜活，但目前尚未有证据表明有更强的集聚效应（rally effects）、更大的外群厌恶（outgroup dislike）、对安全政策的偏好或情绪影响。这一结果挑战了先前关于亲历恐怖袭击事件后公众舆论变化的理论。然而与以往研究一样，结果表明瑞典各地在一系列问题上的公众舆论确实发生了变化。无论地理位置如何，这些普遍影响在全国范围内都是一致发生的。
In a panel study where one survey was conducted immediately after a terrorist attack in central Stockholm, with over 20,000 participants, we examine the possibility that first-hand experiences with terror increases effects compared to people located elsewhere in Sweden. We use matching and as-if random variation in our data to identify the effect of personal proximity. While we find that people close to the attack perceived themselves as more affected, attesting to the vividness of the experience, we find no evidence of stronger rally effects, greater outgroup dislike, preferences for security policies or emotional effects. The results challenge previous theories on public opinion change in the aftermath of vivid events. In line with prior research, however, the results indicate that public opinion among people across Sweden did change on a range of issues. These general effects occurred uniformly, regardless of geographic location in the country.
09 殖民教育、政治精英和非洲的区域政治不平等
【题目】
Colonial Education, Political Elites, and Regional Political Inequality in Africa
【作者】
Joan Ricart-Huguet
【摘要】
政治精英在分配资源时往往偏爱本地区。但如何解释政治权力一开始是如何在国家各地区间分配的呢？内阁形成的解释侧重于短期战略性谈判，有些解释强调内阁各部长的公平分配以最小化冲突。通过使用关于16个前英法非洲殖民地的内阁成员（1960-2010 年）的新数据，我发现一些地区有着比其他地区更系统的代表性。结合新的历史地理空间记录，我表明这种区域政治不平等并非起源于殖民时代的总体发展，而是源于殖民时代的教育。本文认为后殖民时期的部长选任一定程度上是欧洲殖民者在公务员选拔中侧重于文化水平的副产品。区域政治不平等是尚未被充分研究的路径，殖民地遗产通过这个路径影响着当今非洲的分配政治和不平等发展。
Political elites tend to favor their home region when distributing resources. But what explains how political power is distributed across a country’s regions to begin with? Explanations of cabinet formation focus on short-term strategic bargaining and some emphasize that ministries are allocated equitably to minimize conflict. Using new data on the cabinet members (1960–2010) of 16 former British and French African colonies, I find that some regions have been systematically much more represented than others. Combining novel historical and geospatial records, I show that this regional political inequality derives not from colonial-era development in general but from colonial-era education in particular. I argue that post-colonial ministers are partly a byproduct of civil service recruitment practices among European administrators that focused on levels of literacy. Regional political inequality is an understudied pathway through which colonial legacies impact distributive politics and unequal development in Africa today.
10 内部人、外部人、技能和对社会保护的偏好：来自阿根廷调查实验的证据
【题目】
Insiders, Outsiders, Skills, and Preferences for Social Protection: Evidence From a Survey Experiment in Argentina
【作者】
Irene Men´endez Gonz´alez
【摘要】
比较政治经济学的标准理论预测，劳动力市场的内部人反对向较贫穷，且通常是非正式的劳动力市场的外部人进行再分配。相反，本文认为并非所有内部人都反对向外部人再分配。通过扩展最近的关于强调经济不安全对内部人的重要性的研究，本文认为风险暴露会导致低技能和高技能内部人之间对非缴费型社会政策的偏好出现更大的极化。本文使用来自阿根廷具有全国代表性样本的调查实验来检验该逻辑，并通过对16 个拉丁美洲国家的观察数据分析来补充了这一点。作者发现有强有力的证据表明，低技能和高技能的内部人对社会保护的偏好存在两极分化。实验表明，低（高）技能的内部人对成为外部人风险的准备成为各自更加支持政策向外部人（内部人）转移的关键。本文对内部-外部联盟以支持中等收入国家社会政策扩张提供了新的微观基础。
Standard theories in comparative political economy predict that labor market insiders oppose redistribution to poorer, often informal, labor market outsiders. In contrast, I argue that not all insiders oppose redistribution to outsiders. Extending recent work emphasizing the importance of economic insecurity for insiders, I argue that exposure to risk leads to greater polarization regarding preferences for non-contributory social policy between low and high-skilled insiders. I test implications of this logic using a survey experiment from a nationally representative sample in Argentina and complement this with analysis of observational data for 16 Latin American countries. I find strong evidence of polarization regarding preferences over social protection among low- and high-skilled insiders. The experiment reveals that low (high)-skilled insiders primed about the risk of becoming outsiders become more supportive of transfers to outsiders (insiders). The article provides new micro-foundations for insider–outsider coalitions in support of social policy expansion in middle-income countries.
11 为什么物理障碍适得其反：移民执法如何阻碍移民回国和增加庇护申请
【题目】
Why Physical Barriers Backfire: How Immigration Enforcement Deters Return and Increases Asylum Applications
【作者】
Justin Schon, David Leblang
【摘要】
物理障碍对跨境人口流动有什么影响？障碍能够减少移民流动的基本主张尚未得以证实。我们将“障碍”概念化为移民执法的一种工具，并认为这是国家镇压的形式之一。国家镇压可能会减少动员（减少移民），对动员没有影响（障碍仅作为象征性的政治工具），或是增加动员（适得其反）。我们使用1990-2016年时间段内所有连续二元组和附近非连续二元组的全球定向二元年数据集（global directed dyad-year dataset），来评估障碍与跨境人口流动之间的关系。作者利用工具变量发现，物理障碍实际上增加了难民流动，这与美国在墨西哥边境移民执法政策的研究中提出的“逆反效应”相一致。此外，我们发现国家镇压（移民执法）通过减少人员流动并增加从移民到难民的身份流动的“沉没成本”问题，造成了这种“逆反效应”。
What, if any, effect do physical barriers have on cross-border population movements? The foundational claim that barriers reduce migration flows remains unsupported. We conceptualize barriers as a tool of immigration enforcement, which we contend is one form of state repression. State repression could reduce mobilization (reduce immigration), have no effect on mobilization (barriers as symbolic political tools), or increase mobilization (backfire). We evaluate the relationship between barriers and cross-border population movements using a global directed dyad-year dataset for the 1990-2016 time period of all contiguous dyads and nearby non-contiguous dyads. Using instrumental variables, we find that physical barriers actually increase refugee flows, consistent with the “backfire effect” identified in research on United States immigration enforcement policies on its Mexican border. Furthermore, we find that state repression (immigration enforcement) creates this “backfire effect” via a “sunk costs” problem that reduces movements of people and increases movement of status from migrant to refugee.
翻 译：郝若雯 马丝妮
校 对：郝若雯 马丝妮
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编辑：马丝妮
审核：焦 磊
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