【主旨演讲】欧盟委员会前主席、意大利前总理罗马诺·普罗迪：稳步推进中欧投资贸易协定有关工作，共塑美好未来(中英文对照）
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北京时间2021年5月24日-26日，由北京大学中外人文交流研究基地（iGCU）与北京大学地中海区域研究中心（CMAS）主办的“地中海论坛”通过视频会议形式成功举办。三十余位前政要、专家学者、企业代表围绕政治、国际关系、金融、贸易、科技与气候等六大主题就构建欧洲-地中海-中国区域间的战略联结展开讨论。 欧盟委员会前主席、意大利前总理罗马诺·普罗迪（Romano Prodi）在首场研讨会“展望未来：趋势与挑战”上发表主旨演讲。快和小i一起来看看他的发言精选吧~
非常感谢大会的邀请，我倍感荣幸。今天我将从地中海与中国的关系这一角度出发，大致介绍地中海的政治局势，重点谈谈地中海的未来走向。首先，我们必须更加重视美国出台的政策。直到15年前，美国对地中海地区都还饶有兴趣。美国针对地中海制定的政策只因以色列而起，也只与以色列有关。
Thank you so much for the invitation. I enjoyed it. My task is to give a framework on the political picture of the Mediterranean with China and in terms of Chinese relations in five minutes, but mainly on what is happening in the Mediterranean or will be in the future. First of all, my starting point is that we must take a great consideration of the American policy. Till 15 years ago, the engagement in the Mediterranean was total, and there was a full, let’s say, I don’t say domination, but a really full, deep American interest in the Mediterranean. And step by step, we are assisted to realize area this engagement, not the real order, Mediterranean this engagement. And the American policy of the Mediterranean is only because of Israel and is only related to Israel.
就新的地方权力来说，我们的理论知识尚不完备，心里也还有诸多“问号”。令人意外的是，这片理论空白开始逐渐被填补完善，做出首要贡献的就是土耳其和俄罗斯。这就是我反复强调的“意外”。从全球角度来看，土耳其针对地中海地区有一个完整的计划——除了塞浦路斯、叙利亚和利比亚外，还有巴尔干绿色地带。保加利亚在这些地区的兴趣与日俱增。这是权力上的第一次重大变化。在过去一段日子里，我们主要关注叙利亚和利比亚。未来还应将目光转向俄罗斯，它和土耳其大相径庭。
We all will be left with an empty space in theory with a great route to Europe and a question mark to new local powers. It was unexpected that step by step that the empty space has been filled, first of all by Turkey and by Russia. This is what I repeat as “unexpected.” From the global point of view, Turkey has a throughout project for the Mediterranean - Cyprus, Syria, Libya, and not only that, including the Green Belt of Balkans. but Bulgaria has an increasing interest in those areas. This is the first great change in terms of power. In the last period of time, we had the interest mainly focused on Syria and Libya. And we shall talk about Russia later, who is not like Turkey.
第二次重大变化是一场隐形战争——移民。有的移民经摩洛哥入境西班牙，有的经利比亚和突尼斯入境意大利。我称之为“混合战争”。当然，这一定义并不是很恰当，但足以让你了解，地方权力是如何与欧洲国家抗衡的。他们把移民当作一种武器。现实是，欧洲GDP是俄罗斯或土耳其GDP的十倍乃至以上。这听上去有些难以置信，但却是不争的事实。
The second is a hidden war – migration. In Spain the migration is driven by Morocco, and in Italy it is driven by Libya and Tunisia. I call it a “hybrid war.” It is absolutely not the appropriate definition but gives you the idea of how all the local powers are pushing against the European countries. They use the migration as a military instrument. At least the fact is that the European GDP is ten times bigger or more than Russia or Turkey. It is an incredible situation, but this is the real situation.
如今，即便是对以色列来说，情况也与两个月之前大不相同。土耳其已经有了明显的改善，但依旧有动荡。伊朗和卡塔尔也回到了不安定的日子。以色列在《亚伯拉罕协议》签署后已扩大同邻国的协议，它需要解决200多万巴勒斯坦居民的问题。我不清楚该如何实现，毕竟情况很复杂。
Now, the situation, even for Israel, is different compared to 2 months ago. Turkey is clearly improving, even if there is upside down. But Iran, even Qatar went back to a situation of instability, and Israel over the Abraham Agreements has widened agreements with the neighboring areas. Israel needs to set the problems with 2 million Palestinians. And I don’t see how this could be done. The situation is complicated.
最后我再从政治角度来提出一个“问号”。如果美国人再次插手这片区域（不仅限于以色列），那么对巴勒斯坦的援助就是这个走向的一个信号。中国在地中海地区有着巨大的经济影响力，但政治影响力相对较弱。想想在利比亚的3.5万至3.6万名中国人，四天之内全被接回中国，再也没有回去过。I will end with a political question mark. If the America would come back to have a role, not only a role limited to Israel, the aid to the Palestinians is just a signal of this new orientation. China has an enormous economic influence in the Mediterranean area, but less political influence than economic. There are really a lot of activities in Morocco and everywhere. If you think of Libya, there were 35-36 thousands Chinese delegates and workers in Libya who were in 4 days transferred back to China and they never came back.
在这种情况下，中国政策和地中海南部地区都处于待机模式。但在巴尔干半岛和土耳其的许多活动的目的不仅是为了开辟道路，也是为了巩固“17+1合作”。在我看来，“17+1合作”仍有待商榷，因为中国的做法无可厚非，同时还实现了“17+1合作”的制度化。但对于欧洲大国来说，这一举措令其尤为不安。我认为这与政治无关。
In this situation, the Chinese policy and the south Mediterranean are in a waiting mode. But a lot of activities in the Balknas and Turkey are not only to seek the road but also consolidate what is called “17+1.” In my opinion, “17+1” is debatable, because China is perfectly right to do business and makes the “17+1” as an institution. But it’s uneasy for the most important European countries. I don’t think there has been a political step.
我真诚地希望我们能采取措施来改变这种情况。几个月前，尚可签署《中欧全面投资协定》（CAI）进行谈判，情况相对来说简单得多。但现在一切都搁置了。老实说，我不理解为何议会成员要不断施加制裁来叫停与中国的所有协议。我不认可这样的做法。
I do hope that we must in some way change the situation. It was easier a few months ago through the signature of the treaty CAI (EU – China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment). But now everything is frozen. Honestly, I don’t understand why the members of the parliament put increasing numbers of sanctions to stop all the agreements with China. I don’t think I agree with that.
But it is not my task. My task was to give a picture and my minutes are over. It is clear that we must change some attitudes or more sights if we want to reopen the relation, because in this moment it is formally impossible to do anything, like the “17+1,” then the sanction and the attention that it brings with Turkey. But now the strong sanction is against members of European Parliament and everything is frozen. I do hope that we understand it on both side that something must be defrozen. Thank you.
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