英文原文丨环境教授共议中国 2060 碳中和目标与展望

01

Economics

Billy Pizer

Susan B. King Distinguished Professor of Public Policy, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Professor of Environmental Science and Policy, Duke Kunshan University

     I think this is monumental.  Only ten years ago we were trying to get china to make any kind of statement about an emission target.  Five years ago, we were talking about peaking and emissions intensity.  Now we are talking about net-zero.  The fact that china has done this without any US engagement, and even in an arena of outright hostility towards climate action by the US administration, is equally significant.  It suggests china wants to be a global leader without a near-term quid pro quo.

Brian Murray

Director, Energy Initiative, Duke University

     I agree this is a remarkable and somewhat unexpected development. As Billy commented, it is true that in Paris China committed to peaking by 2030 and reducing emissions intensity, the growth rate of emissions in the last five years has still been high and had not been clearly headed toward a peaking trajectory. While the 2030 goal is not that different (peak “before” 2030 rather than peak “by” 2030)., the movement toward mid-century absolute targets is critical to achieve climate stability. It will be important to see whether coal capacity additions look like in the next decade; if they stay high, then the “net” zero 2060 goal will need to be met by some combination of carbon capture (geological or biological) and premature retirement of coal plants that are built this decade.

Junjie Zhang

Director, Environmental Research Center and International Environmental Policy Program, Duke Kunshan University, Associate Professor, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University

     China surprised the world by pledging that it will achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The renewed climate commitment is significant given that the EU aims to be carbon neutral by 2050 and the US has no such goal at all. The announcement came at a critical time that the world desperately needed positive news to move forward. On the one hand, China shows its determination to reboot the economy impacted by the pandemic using an environmentally and climate friendly approach. On the other hand, China doubled down its commitment to global climate protection even as the US will formally withdraw from the Paris Agreement late this year. China also reiterated that it will peak its carbon emissions around 2030, which was initially announced in the 2014 China-US climate agreement and confirmed in the Paris Agreement. There is no doubt that China’s climate ambition will boost the global confidence in fighting climate change. 

Jingbo Cui

Associate Professor in Applied Economics, Division of Social Sciences and Environmental Research Center, Duke Kunshan University

     China’s pledge to carbon neutrality by 2060 makes a significant step toward its low-carbon economy transition and global climate governance. In the midst of the pandemic, China pursues economic self-reliance by promoting the domestic economic circulation model. The ambitious target of carbon neutrality calls an urgent need for breakthroughs in climate-friendly technologies, large-scale green investments, and the implementation of national climate policies and financial supports.  This pledge plays a pivotal role in leading the domestic economic circulation into a sustainable and low-carbon mode.

02

Law and Policy

Jonathan B. Wiener 

William R. and Thomas L. Perkins Professor of Law, Duke University, Professor of Environmental Science and Policy, Duke Kunshan University

       This announcement advances on a path seen over the last decade, as China’s strategy on climate change began to shift from high-emissions growth toward reducing emissions.  Some of the factors driving this shift are international:  China’s rise to renewed great power status, and its chance to be a leader on global issues like climate change.  Other equally important factors are domestic, including rising urbanization, rising domestic demand for environmental quality, and shifting patterns of production.  The potential for environmental crises to spur political instability through Chinese history may be a significant motivation. China’s pledge a decade ago to have its emissions peak by around 2030 was promising but left uncertain at what level that peak would occur.  The new pledge of carbon neutrality by 2060 shows even more ambition, and invites constructive questions about policy options – how China will and should get from here to there.

Jackson Ewing

Senior Fellow, The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, iMEP Faculty Lead, Duke Kunshan University

      President Xi announced to the UN General Assembly (UNGA) on Tuesday that China will aim to peak its carbon dioxide emissions prior to its previous goal to 2030, and achieve emissions neutrality by 2060. This announcement comes after recent hints at such goals by the father of modern Chinese climate policy, Xie Zhenhua, and shortly after a highly publicized virtual summit between Chinese and EU leaders that saw Europeans push China to strive for net-zero emissions. Still, President Xi’s UN speech came as a welcome surprise. The Paris Agreement on climate change is based on countries regularly ratcheting up their climate response ambitions, and COP26 (delayed from 2020 to 2021 because of COVID-19) will call on countries to bring revised plans and redoubled goals. With a recent history of resisting such calls, and few moves that would suggest emissions neutrality was in the offing, China’s UNGA declarations are cause for renewed optimism. The area to watch now becomes the release of China’s 14th Five Year Plan in early 2021, which will give color on how China will pursue these goals in the near-term.

 Coraline Goron  

Assistant Professor of Environmental Policy, International Environmental Policy Program and Environmental Research Center, Duke Kunshan University

     By announcing that China will strive to be carbon neutral by 2060, president Xi Jinping has sent a very welcome political signal in the run up to the first ‘global stocktake’ to take place at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, by which parties are expected to put forward more ambitious nationally determined contributions. Coming on the heels of European Commission President Van der Leyen’s State of the Union announcement proposing to ramp up EU’s pledge from 40% to 55% emissions reduction by 2030, it injects confidence in the capacity of the EU and China to jointly lead on global climate change without the US, and offers much needed support to the multilateral climate governance system painstakingly elaborated under the Paris Agreement. Beyond the political signal, however, much work remains to align China’s medium- and long-term goals. Evidence pointed out that China’s Paris Agreement pledge to peak its CO2 emissions by 2030 was both conservative and insufficient to keep global temperatures below 2 degree Celsius. While President Xi also announced that China’s emissions would peak before 2030, several studies have showed that they could peak much earlier. We should look forward to the 14th Five-Year-Plan (2021-2025), which will give us more precise indications as to how much earlier than 2030 we can hope to see Chinese emissions peak and start decreasing. 

03

Science

  Dalia Patino-Echeverri 

Gendell Family Associate Professor, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Visiting Associate Professor of Environmental Science and Policy, Duke Kunshan University

     This is hugely welcome news at a time when multiple tragedies pain our world. Fossil fuels still account for 70% of China’s primary energy consumption, so the challenge is significant, but the continuous success meeting ambitious energy goals set in the last three Five-Year Plans shows this is achievable. China has the tools and commitment to be the environmental steward we so desperately need.

Huansheng Cao

Assistant Professor in Applied Science, Division of Natural and Applied Sciences and Environmental Research Center, Duke Kunshan University

     This announcement is a natural next step of China’s movement toward mitigating environmental pollution and restoring environmental quality, which itself is part of a bigger plan of the central government in transforming China towards the future world. Among the ongoing measures to achieve it are forest rehabilitation from bare land or farmland, curbing desert expansion and even turning deserts into farmland. Most important of all, I believe China see this as enormous opportunity to transform our way of production and living. Implementation wise, both policy making, reinforcement, and technical breakthroughs will be required to work synergically. This timeline laid out by President Xi will serve as drive for these changes and also a chance for global collaboration to protect our shared planet home. 

Song Gao

Professor of Environmental Science/Chemistry, Duke Kunshan University

     China’s latest announcement on achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 comes as not only welcome news as the world struggles with the pandemic and other tragedies, but also as endorsement of science and humanity’s belief in science.  Atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratio has surpassed an unprecedented high level of 412ppm in the summer of 2020, its greenhouse effect and its century-long lifetime putting the Earth firmly on a path of continued warming. Although other measures, especially short-lived climate pollutants (forcers), including methane, black carbon, tropospheric ozone and hydrofluorocarbons, are being considered or implemented for fast, short-term mitigation, virtually all climate models point out that cutting carbon emissions is needed for long-term mitigation, limiting warming to 1.5 degree Celsius and avoiding the dangerous climate tipping point. As the largest carbon emitter at present, China’s commitment to carbon neutrality is based on respect for and actions in line with latest science, and shall bring renewed hope in concerted actions on global climate governance.

John S. Ji

Assistant Professor of Environmental Health Science, Duke Kunshan University

     To achieve carbon neutrality, China needs to aggressively increase its forest stock to act as a carbon sink through photosynthesis. There are immense co-benefits on its 1.3 billion population. Forest and greenness prevent pre-mature mortality through pathways of the biophilia hypothesis and biodiversity hypothesis. Ultimately, it may help meet the Healthy China 2030 goals early, to increase its citizens’ life expectancy from 76 years in 2015 to 79 years by 2030.