双语阅读｜经济学家看衰全球化的未来
GLOBALISATION is not new. In the late 19th century capital moved freely across the world and goods crossed national borders (despite tariffs) with the help of cheap transport. People, too, migrated across the oceans on a proportionately far bigger scale than they do today. All that came to a dramatic end with the outbreak of the first world war.
全球化早已存在。19世纪末资本在全球自由流动，虽有关税，运输成本却低廉，商品在各国之间流通。当时人们迁移的规模比今天的要大得多。所有这一切因一战爆发而戛然而止。
Trade did not recover its share of world GDP until the 1960s. But after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, it became tempting to believe in a kind of “Whig theory of globalisation” with economies growing ever more linked thanks to the internet and the spread of liberal capitalism. Perhaps the world is due for another change of trend. That is the view of Stephen King, an economist at HSBC, which, as it happens, is one of the most global of banks.
直到20世纪60年代，跨国贸易才开始恢复全球GDP中的占比。可是，在1989年柏林墙倒塌后，由于互联网的发展和自由资本主义的迅速扩张，国家之间联系更加频繁，人们日益相信一种“辉格党式全球化理论”。世界因另一贸易变化而可能迎来改变。这是全球化程度最高的银行之一，汇丰银行的经济学家史蒂芬·金的观点。
In “Grave New World” Mr King argues that economic progress that reaches beyond borders is not “an inescapable truth”. Technology may have boosted globalisation until now, but it may not do so in future. Companies may decide to replace cheap labour in the developing world with robots at home, causing global supply chains to collapse. The internet has also increased inequality within economies, as skilled workers have reaped the most benefits, creating a division between the “haves” and the “have nots”.
在《沉重的新世界》一书中，金表示，跨越国界的经济进程不是“一个无法逃避的真相“。至今为止，技术促进了全球化发展，在未来却可能并非如此。跨国企业可能决定在国内用机器人代替发展中国家廉价的劳动力，全球供应链也会随之溃裂。互联网加剧了各经济体内部的不平衡性，因为技术工人收获了大部分收益，扩大了”富人“和”穷人“之间的差距。
A resurgence in migration has also caused a political backlash, on both economic and cultural grounds. Populist politicians have gained voters, and even power in some countries. And there may be even greater migrant flows to come, as Africa’s population grows and its citizens seek to escape from failed states, or the consequences of climate change, and to enhance their economic opportunities. The developed world may place more restrictions on inflows, as America did in the early 20th century, barring both Asians and those who could not pass a literacy test.
人员流动的重新兴起造成了政治层面的抵制，并获取得经济和文化层面的支持。民粹政客得到了选民的支持，甚至在某些国家上台执政。或者由于非洲人口增长、非洲人想要逃离崩溃的国度，又或是躲避气候变化带来的影响，并增加赚钱的机会，更大的移民浪潮可能来袭。发达国家可能会严格控制人员流入，就像美国在20世纪初做的那样，将亚洲人以及没有通过文化测试的人拒之门外。
Geopolitical shifts will also make a difference. After 1945, America was globalisation’s leading architect and its main sponsor. But its authority is now being challenged on a number of fronts. China is asserting itself in the Pacific; Russia is doing so in eastern Europe and the Middle East. Western Europe no longer backs America on all issues and takes a sharply different view from Donald Trump on climate change. The election of Mr Trump proves that domestic voters have wearied of the country’s global responsibilities and want to put “America first”.
地缘政治变动也会产生影响。1945年以来，美国是全球化的设计者和主要推动者，可是，如今美国的权威性受到了诸多挑战。中国在太平洋地区强化自己的地位； 俄罗斯在插手东欧和中东； 西欧各国在众多问题上不再支持美国，并与特朗普在气候变化上意见分歧极大。特朗普当选美国总统证明了国内选民厌烦了美国的全球责任，想要将美国的利益放在第一位。
The result, says Mr King, is that “co-operative arrangements between nation states will be increasingly hard to come by. Conflict—at least in the economic sphere—will become ever more frequent.” The cancellation by Mr Trump of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (a trade agreement with Asia) and the failure to agree on the Doha round of global tariff reductions are cases in point. National governments are turning their backs on global institutions and focusing on their domestic interests.
金表示，这样导致了”各国之间的合作安排将越来越困难。冲突——至少在经济领域——会越来越频繁。”特朗普退出《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（与亚洲各国的贸易协定）和不同意多哈全球关税削减回合就是例子。 各国政府正在转而支持全球机构，将重点放在各国自身的利益之上。
So what is the answer? The irony is that likely solutions require international co-operation, the very thing that populism makes more difficult. Mr King looks at ideas such as breaking up the euro, a global organisation to reconcile capital flows between countries or even a borderless world and concludes they either will be insufficient or are unlikely to happen.
那么答案是什么呢？ 讽刺的是，可能的解决方案需要国际合作，而民粹主义使之变得难上加难。 金分析了一些观点，如取消欧元——欧元是一个全球性组织，调和国家之间的资本流动，甚至是无国界的世界。他得出的结论是，这些事将不会或不太可能发生。
The author ends with a mock campaign speech from a Ms Trump in 2044, which looks back at the collapse of the EU and America’s withdrawal from NATO. For an optimistic economist, it is a surprisingly bleak way to end a well-written and thought-provoking book.
金以模仿特朗普夫人在2044年的总统竞选演讲结束本书。在演讲中，他回顾了欧盟的解体和美国从北约撤军。 一个乐观的经济学家却以消极的方式结束了一本优质且发人深省的书，着实令人惊讶。
编译：刘恬
编辑：李博文
编辑：翻吧君
来源：经济学人