双语阅读｜制裁大战升级，俄罗斯经济难复苏
IN LATE June Daimler, a German carmaker, broke ground on a new Mercedes-Benz plant north-west of Moscow. “We are confident in the long-term potential of Russia,” Markus Schäfer, a board member, said at the ceremony. The €250m ($296m) factory marked the first investment by a Western carmaker since America and the European Union slapped sanctions on Russia as punishment for its aggression in Ukraine three years ago.
2017年6月下旬，德国汽车制造商戴姆勒集团（Daimler）在俄罗斯首都莫斯科西北部的首家梅赛德斯-奔驰（Mercedes-Benz）工厂破土动工。董事会成员马库斯·舍费尔（Markus Schäfer）在奠基仪式上发表讲话说：“我们对俄罗斯未来发展潜力充满信心。”戴姆勒的首轮投资为2.5亿欧元（合2.96亿美元）。三年前美国和欧盟对俄罗斯实施制裁，惩罚其“入侵”乌克兰。
After more than two years of recession, Russia is projected to return to growth this year. Until recently, the chill that sanctions put on the investment climate seemed to be thawing. “People had begun to forget about them,” says Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory, a Moscow-based consultancy. But in late July America’s Congress voted to expand the sanctions. Vladimir Putin responded by demanding that America reduce its diplomatic staff in Russia by some 750 people. (Most of those affected are likely to be Russian employees.) He also shut down the American diplomatic dacha in Moscow’s Serebryany Bor forest—even the barbecues had to go.
俄罗斯经历了两年多的经济衰退后，预计今年恢复增长。直到最近，制裁的寒冬似乎迎来了春天。的专业研究前苏联国家的莫斯科宏观咨询(Macro-Advisory)高级合伙人克里斯•威弗（Chris Weafer）说：“人们早已忘记这回事了。”但是，今年7月下旬，美国决定扩大对俄罗斯的制裁。俄罗斯总统普京（Vladimir Putin）则大砍美驻俄外交官约750人(受影响的大部分人可能是俄方雇员）。他还没收了美国位于俄罗斯首都莫斯科西北边的“银松林”（Serebryany Bor）的外交别墅——甚至烧烤工具都必须带出境。
The new offensive has revived arguments over whether sanctions work. Proponents say they helped stall Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine. Naysayers reckon they just let politicians look tough. The truth is more complicated. So far they have not changed Mr Putin’s behaviour abroad, and have helped him consolidate power at home. Yet in the long term they may undermine the stability of his rule.
这一轮新的对抗引发了对俄制裁是否奏效的争论。支持者认为，制裁阻止了俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事干预。反对者们认为，这只是让美俄两国领导人看起来强硬而已。到目前为止，制裁并没有改变普京的海外政策，反而巩固了他在国内的地位。从长远来看，这可能会破坏他统治的稳定性。
The first sanctions came in response to the takeover of Crimea in March 2014, and targeted individuals with travel bans and asset freezes. In July that year, as Russian-backed separatists rampaged in eastern Ukraine, “sectoral sanctions” followed, restricting credit to a host of Russian energy and defence firms and banks. The measures were calibrated to avoid rocking global markets and to win support from the European Union, which passed sanctions of its own. “The purpose was never to bring down the Russian economy,” says a former American official.
2014年3月，克里米亚（Crimea）正式“脱乌入俄”。欧盟开始第一轮制裁，冻结了俄罗斯目标人物的个人资产，并禁止向其发放旅游签证。当年7月，俄罗斯支持的分裂分子在乌克兰东部发动暴乱，引发美国新一轮“经济制裁”：限制贷款给众多俄罗斯的能源与国防企业以及银行。这些措施是为了避免全球市场的震动，也是为了赢得欧盟的支持。一位前美国官员说道:“我们的目的并不是要搞垮俄罗斯经济。”
After the oil price collapsed in late 2014, Russia’s economy fell into crisis. Sanctions made things worse. A credit crunch led the government to dip into reserves to bail out banks and firms. Uncertainty made foreigners cautious about dealing with anyone in Russia, not just those on the lists. These “silent sanctions” chilled the business climate, says Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank, Russia’s largest private bank. Foreign direct investment fell from $69bn in 2013 to just $6.8bn in 2015.
2014年末，石油价格暴跌。俄罗斯经济也陷入危机。制裁更是雪上加霜。由于贷款紧缩，俄罗斯动用储备金帮助银行和企业度过难关。不稳定性使外国人和任何一个俄罗斯人打交道都很谨慎。俄罗斯最大的私人银行阿尔法银行（Alfa-Bank）首席经济学家娜塔莉亚·奥洛娃（Natalia Orlova）称，这些“无声的制裁”使俄罗斯的商业环境令人失望。外商直接投资从2013年的690亿美元降至2015年仅68亿美元。
American officials seized upon this as proof that sanctions work. “Russia is isolated, with its economy in tatters,” President Barack Obama declared in January 2015. At the time Western leaders fretted that Russia might push deeper into Ukraine. Supporters of the sanctions argue that they helped prevent this, underpinning the signing of the Minsk peace agreements in February 2015.
美国以此为据认为制裁是有效的。2015年1月，美国前总统奥巴马（Barack Obama）宣称:“俄罗斯现在处于孤立的境地，经济支离破碎。”当时，西方领导人担心俄罗斯可能会继续深入乌克兰境内。支持制裁者们辩称，制裁阻止了俄罗斯的做法，并为2015年2月由德国、俄罗斯、法国、乌克兰四国签署的《明斯克协议》（Minsk peace agreements）奠定了基础。
Nonetheless, the sanctions have not altered Mr Putin’s strategy. Russia continues to support the separatist republics in Ukraine, and Crimea’s annexation has become a fait accompli. “The honest truth is that [sanctions] have yet to change their policies,” says Evelyn Farkas, the former Russia point person at the Pentagon. Russia went on to intervene in Syria and, in 2016, meddle in America’s elections.
尽管如此，制裁并没有改变普京的政策。俄罗斯继续支持乌克兰分裂势力，克里米亚并入俄罗斯版图已成为既定事实。美国国防部前俄罗斯／乌克兰／欧亚地区国防安全副助理秘书艾芙琳·法卡斯（Evelyn Farkas）说：“事实是，制裁并没有改变他们的政策。”俄罗斯仍然在干预叙利亚事务，插手2016年美国总统大选。
At home, the government used the sanctions to blame the economic downturn on conniving foreigners. By cutting Mr Putin’s cronies off from global markets, sanctions “inadvertently made them more dependent on the Kremlin”, argues Andrew Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment, a think-tank. In 2015, according to the Russian version of {0}Forbes{1}, Arkady Rotenberg, Mr Putin’s judo buddy and a sanctioned construction magnate, received 555bn roubles’ worth of government orders. Sanctions became an object of public ridicule. A patriotic T-shirt captured the mood: a drawing of a nuclear missile captioned “The Topol is not afraid of sanctions.”
俄罗斯利用制裁将经济低迷归咎于对外部势力的纵容。华盛顿智库卡内基基金会（Carnegie Endowment）的俄罗斯问题专家安德鲁•韦斯（Andrew Weiss）认为，制裁隔断了普京的裙带关系人物与在全球市场的关系，让他们“更依赖俄罗斯”。根据《福布斯》（Forbes）俄文版的说法，2015年，普京的柔道伙伴和受制裁的建筑业巨头阿卡迪·罗登伯格（Arkady Rotenberg）获得了价值5550亿卢布的政府订单。制裁成为了公众嘲笑的对象。一件爱国分子的T恤衫上画了一枚核导弹，上面写着“Topol（一种俄罗斯弹道导弹，译注）不怕制裁。”
With time, business came to fear them less, too. In 2014 United States Treasury officials warned American companies off attending the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russia’s equivalent of Davos. By 2016 many CEOs had returned. Russia successfully placed a $1.25bn sovereign Eurobond in September 2016, with more than half bought by Americans. The United Nations reckons that 280 greenfield investment projects in Russia in 2016, below the ten-year peak of 596 announced in 2008, but an improvement over the nadir of 194 in 2014. IKEA, Leroy Merlin, Pfizer and Mars Inc all have plans for stores or factories.
时间久了，企业也开始不害怕制裁了。2014年，美国财政部警告本国企业不要参加圣彼得堡国际经济论坛（俗称俄罗斯的达沃斯）。到2016年，许多美国企业巨头重新在俄罗斯投资。2016年9月，俄罗斯成功地发行了12.5亿美元的欧元主权债券，其中一半以上是美国人购买的。据联合国估计，2016年俄罗斯将有280个“绿地”投资项目（即新开发的项目），低于2008年的10年峰值596个，却高于2014年的最低值194个。宜家（IKEA）、乐华梅兰（Leroy Merlin）、辉瑞（Pfizer）和玛氏食品（Mars Inc ）都有投资计划。
The new sanctions may give foreign investors pause. That worries the Kremlin. As Mr Putin looks towards his fourth term (he is expected to win next year’s election), Russians are more concerned with their wallets than with Crimea. Growth this year is projected to be 2% or less. For the elite, the prospect of long-term stagnation and endless standoff with the West raises questions about the country’s direction. “The sense of an historic dead-end evokes panic,” writes Vladimir Frolov, a Russian analyst. Sanctions will not cause Mr Putin to reverse course, but they do make it harder for him to drive his way out.
令俄罗斯担心的是新一轮制裁可能会让外国投资者止步不前。当普京期盼连任第四届总统(他有望在明年大选中获胜)，俄罗斯人更关心自己的钱包，而不是克里米亚。今年的经济增长预计为2%甚至更低。对于精英阶层来说，经济长期停滞，与西方的无休止的对峙，让人们对俄罗斯的未来更加迷茫。俄罗斯国际事务分析师弗拉基米尔·弗罗洛（Vladimir Frolov）写道：“看不到出路的未来会引起恐慌。”制裁不会让普京改变路线，不过也会让他更难走出困境。
编译：卫晴
编辑：翻吧君
来源：经济学人