双语阅读｜中东紧张局势推动石油市场超预期
ONLY one thing spooks the oil market as much as hot-headed despots in the Middle East, and that is hot-headed hedge-fund managers. For the second time this year, record speculative bets on rising oil prices in American and European futures have made the market vulnerable to a sell-off. “You don’t want to be the last man standing,” says Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank.
只有一件事使石油市场充满恐慌，犹如中东地区狂躁的独裁者一般：一个鲁莽的对冲基金经理。美国和欧洲期货市场上出现了年内第二次创记录的看高石油价上升的投机行为，致使市场很容易出现抛售情况。“你不会想成为坚持到最后的人，”盛宝银行的Ole Hansen说。
On November 15th, the widely traded Brent crude futures benchmark, which had hit a two-year high of $64 a barrel on November 7th, fell below $62. America’s West Texas Intermediate also fell. The declines coincided with a sharp drop across global metals markets, owing to concern about slowing demand in China, which has clobbered prices of nickel and other metals that had hit multi-year highs. (In a sign of investor nervousness after a sharp rally this year in global stock and bond markets, high-yield corporate bonds also weakened significantly this week.)
11月15日，交易量庞大的布伦特原油期货基准价格下跌至62美元以下，而在11月7日曾触及两年以来的最高点，每桶64美元。美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格也在下跌。巧合的是，在原油期货价格下跌的同时，全球金属市场也出现暴跌情况，原因是人们担心中国的需求放缓，而这已让多年位剧高点镍和其他金属价格倍受打压。(在今年全球股市和债券市场大幅反弹后，令投资者感到紧张的迹象是高收益公 48 31803 48 15264 0 0 2888 0 0:00:11 0:00:05 0:00:06 3005债券在本周也大幅下跌。)
The reversal in the oil markets put a swift end to talk of crude shooting above $70 a barrel, which had gained strength after the detention in Saudi Arabia of dozens of princes and other members of the elite, and increasing tension between the Gulf states and Iran over Yemen and Lebanon. The International Energy Agency (IEA), which forecasts supply and demand, said on November 14th that it doubted $60 a barrel had become a new floor for oil. It did note, however, that geopolitical risk had become a salient factor in the market. Since Iraq seized back Kirkuk from Kurdish forces in October, shipments of Iraqi oil have fallen sharply. Mr Hansen says such tensions have added a $10 risk premium to a barrel of crude recently, but these can evaporate as quickly as they build.
石油市场的逆转使得要让上涨至每桶70美元的原油价格谈判无疾而终，而在沙特阿拉伯几十名王子及一些高层人士遭拘捕后，石油价格上涨趋势得到加强。海湾国家与伊朗在也门和黎巴嫩问题上的僵持局面也越发紧张。提供石油供需关系预测的国际能源署（IEA）在11月14日表示，每桶60美元疑似已成为新的石油最低价。 但是，它明确指出，地缘政治风险已成为市场的显着因素。自10月份伊拉克从库尔德人手中夺回基尔库克之后，伊拉克石油的运输量急剧下降。 汉森表示，这种一类的紧张局势最近让每桶原油的风险溢价提升了10美元。不过，这些风险可能会与之形成一样迅速蒸发。
Geopolitics aside, the two factors behind the volatility are familiar. Ever since prices crashed below $30 a barrel in early 2016, they have been most influenced by the strength of shale production in America; and the level of global inventories targeted by OPEC, the producers’ cartel, and non-OPEC sovereign producers like Russia.
撇开地缘政治不谈，石油价格波动背后的两个因素是很类似。自2016年初油价跌破每桶30美元以来，最大的影响因素来自美国页岩产量；此外，石油输出国组织（OPEC）和俄罗斯等非石油输出国组织成员国也瞄准了全球库存水平。
Those bullish on oil prices say shale production is moderating as cash-strapped American producers tighten their belts. Wall Street has become less willing to supply equity to finance their expansion, unless they can produce oil profitably.
那些看涨油价的人士称，由于资金短缺的美国生产商捉襟见肘，页岩油产量正在放缓。除非他们能盈利，华尔街不太愿意为他们的增产提供资金。
But the bears note that last week there was a rise in the rig count calculated by Baker Hughes, an oil-service provider, indicating that higher prices and more hedging activity is encouraging producers to ramp up again. And the IEA forecast this week that shale-oil production by 2025 will exceed that of even the biggest oilfield in Saudi Arabia (see chart). If true, that is a glaring long-term sell signal.
但看跌人士指出，上周，石油服务供应商贝克休斯计算出了钻机数量出现上升，这表明价格上涨和更多对冲活动正在促使生产商进行再次增产。国际能源署本周预测，到2025年，页岩油产量将超过沙特阿拉伯最大油田的产量(见图表)。如果这是真的，那就是一个明显的长期看空的信号。
As for inventories, bears say the data suggest stocks of crude and petroleum products in America are still excessive. That puts pressure on OPEC and non-OPEC producers, which meet in Vienna on November 30th, to extend supply cuts that were due to expire in March 2018. As usual before the meeting, those participating—especially Russia—are arguing over the pros and cons. It may take bigger cuts than anticipated, or a genuine geopolitical crisis, to make the hedge funds bullish again.
至于库存，看跌人士表示，数据显示，美国的原油和石油产品库存仍然很高。这给石油输出国组织和非石油输出国组织成员的产油国带来了压力。他们将于11月30日在维也纳召开会议，将延长原定于2018年3月到期的减产。像往常一样，那些参加会议的国家，特别是俄罗斯，正在争论利弊，可能会比预期削减更多，或者是真正的地缘政治危机，使对冲基金再次看涨。
编译：靳婷
审校：马佳艺
编辑：翻吧君
来源：经济学人