外刊精读：疫情与粮食供应链

Supply chains and the pandemic

The food miracleMarkets, ingenuity and open borders have kept the world fed. Don’t take that for granted

粮食奇迹——市场、独创性和开放性使世界粮食充足。但不要认为这是理所当然的。

If you live in the rich world and want an example of trade and global co-operation, look no further than your dinner plate. As the lockdowns began in the West two months ago, many feared that bread, butter and beans would run short, causing a wave of stocking-up. Today, thanks to fleets of delivery lorries filling supermarket shelves, you can binge-eat as you binge-watch.

如果你生活在发达国家，希望获得一个全球贸易合作的事例，看看自己的餐盘就知道了。两个月前西方国家开始实行禁售措施时，许多人担心面包、黄油和豆类会因此短缺，从而导致库存积压。但如今，得益于将超市货架填满的运货卡车，你可以一边大吃，一边刷剧。

Run short：短缺，用完。

例句：The government knew a decade ago that supply would run short in around2007.

Stock up:备货，囤货，囤积。

例句：The authorities have urged people to stock up on fuel.

Stock: n. 股份，股票；库存；血统；树干；家畜；adj. 存货的，常备的；平凡的；

      vt. 进货；备有；装把手于…… ；         vi. 囤积；办货；出新芽。

例句：All stock prices have jumped up this month.

     The shop decided to clear off all the old stock in the storehouse.

Binge:n.狂欢，狂闹；放纵；vt. 放纵vi. 狂饮作乐；大吃大喝。

Binge-eat:暴饮暴食。 

Binge-watch：电视成瘾；煲剧；刷剧。

This capitalist miracle reflects not a monolithic plan, but an $8trn global supply chain adapting to a new reality, with mil- lions of firms making spontaneous decisions, from switching rice suppliers in Asia to refitting freezers. The system is far from perfect: as incomes collapse, more people are going hungry. There are risks, from labour shortages to bad harvests. And there is an irony in seeing the industry grapple with a crisis that prob- ably began with the sale of pangolin meat in a market in Wuhan. But the food network is so far passing a severe test. It is crucial that, during and after the pandemic, governments do not lurch into a misguided campaign for self-reliance.

这个资本主义奇迹不是一个整体计划，而是由数以百万计的公司自发决定更换亚洲的大米供应商、改装冷冻机，从而建造的一条旨在适应现状，造价8万美元的全球供应链。该系统并非完美：随着收入的下降，越来越多的人囊中羞涩。从劳动力短缺到欠收都面临着风险。具有讽刺意味的是，这场行业危机可能是由武汉市场上销售穿山甲肉引起。但是到目前为止，粮食供应网已经通过了严峻的考验。但至关重要的是：在疫情流行期间及之后，政府不要陷入错误的“自救运动”。

Monolithic：adj. 整体的；巨石的，庞大的；完全统一的。

例句：The building itself is a shell design, with a steel frame, stainless steel roof and 46 monolithic glass windows.

Spontaneous：adj. 自发的, 无意识的

例句：Opportunities for learning occur spontaneously every day.

Irony：n. 讽刺；反语；具有讽刺意味的事；

      adj. 铁的；似铁的。

例句：Some courts might want to address this irony by saying that the distributor must reserve this right and this ability - and thus must expose itself to a vicarious infringement claim.

pangolin：n.穿山甲。

Lurch：v. 突然倾斜；（因震惊或惊恐等）心猛地一跳；蹒跚；突然改变（行为或态度）；

       n. 突然倾斜；失败，挫折；蹒跚。

Lurch into：陷入。

例句：As problems arise, the regulatory system will lurch from crisis to crisis and wind up extending to cover everything and nothing.

Misguide：vt. 误导；使误入歧途。

例句：Don't misguide the people from the real threat.

The supply chains behind an iPhone, or a car component that crisscrosses the Rio Grande, are wonders of co-ordination. But the unsung star of 21st-century logistics is the global food system . From field to fork, it accounts for 10% of world gdp and employs perhaps 1.5bn people. The global supply of food has nearly tripled since 1970, as the population has doubled to 7.7bn. At the same time, the number of people who have too little to eat has fallen from 36% of the population to 11%, and a bushel of maize or cut of beef costs less today than 50 years ago in real terms. Food exports have grown sixfold over the past 30 years; four-fifths of people live in part on calories produced in another country.

无论是iPhone的供应链，还是错综复杂的里奥格兰德州汽车部件背后的供应链，它们协调合作创造的奇迹。但是二十一世纪物流中鲜为人知的明星是全球粮食系统。从田地到分支机构，它占世界国内生产总值的10％，雇用了大约15亿员工。自1970年以来，全球粮食供应量几乎增长了两倍，人口增加了一倍，达到77亿。与此同时，饥饿人口数量从人口的36％下降到11％，而如今一个蒲式耳的玉米或切成薄片的牛肉的实际价格要低于50年前。在过去的30年中，粮食出口增长了六倍。五分之四的人部分生活在另一个国家生产的粮食中。

Crisscrosses：adj.十字形的，交叉的，此处引申译为“错综复杂的”。

Unsung：adj. 未唱的；未被赞颂的；被埋没的。

例句：The unsung advantage of attending a small college is that you can mold your experience any way you want.

Triple：adj. 三倍的；三方的；n. 三倍数；三个一组

       vi. 增至三倍；vt. 使成三倍

例句：His first novel, "Triple Door," plumbed the adolescent angst of those withering under the pressures of family and school.

This happens in spite of governments, not because of them. Although their role has declined, they still sometimes fix prices and control distribution. The European Union’s farm tariffs are four times those on its non-farm imports. A dozen or so big exporters, including Ameri- ca, India, Russia and Vietnam, dominate staples such as wheat and rice. Half a dozen trading firms, such as Cargill from Minnesota and cofco from Beijing, shift food around the world.

尽管各国都有政府，但上述成就不是因为政府而取得的。尽管政府的作用下降了，但它们有时仍会调控价格并控制分配。欧盟的农产品关税是其非农产品进口关税的四倍。包括美国、印度、俄罗斯和越南在内的十几个大型出口商控制着小麦和大米等主要作物。六家贸易公司，例如明尼苏达州的嘉吉和北京的中粮集团，在全球范围内销售粮食。

Concentration and government intervention, along with the vagaries of the climate and commodity markets, mean that the system is finely tuned and can misfire, with devastating consequences. In 2007-08 bad harvests and higher energy costs pushed up food prices. This led governments to panic about shortages and ban exports, causing more anxiety and even loftier prices. The result was a wave of riots and distress in the emerging world. It was the worst food crisis since the 1970s, when high fertiliser prices and bad weather in America, Canada and Russia caused food production to drop.

集中化、政府干预、气候变化和商品市场异常意味着该系统已进行了微调，并且可能会失灵，造成毁灭性后果。2007-2008年，欠收和较高的能源成本推高了粮食价格。这导致政府对粮食短缺感到恐慌，并开始禁止粮食出口，从而引起更多的焦虑甚至更高的粮食价格。最终的结果是，新兴国家掀起了一阵骚乱和困难。这是自1970年代以来最严重的粮食危机，当时化肥价格居高不下，美国，加拿大和俄罗斯的恶劣天气导致粮食产量下降。

Vagary: n. 奇想；奇特行为；变化无常。

例句：Is the current food crisis just another market vagary?

Devastating：adj. 毁灭性的；全然的。Devastate：摧毁。

例句：They suggest that the macroeconomic effects of the tsunami, though hardly negligible, will not be devastating and will not last very long.

Riot：n. 暴乱；放纵；蔓延。vi. 骚乱；放荡。vt. 浪费，挥霍。

例句：Their scuffle was stopped by the riot police.

Emerging world：指新兴国家。新兴国家是指经济发展程度介于发达国家以及发展中国家之间，又称“新兴工业化国家”、“半工业化国家”，这一定名是在20世纪70年代末期的《复经济制合作发展组织报告书》里提出的。总的说来所谓新兴工业化国家是指具有一定资本主义基础的发展中国家在较短的历史时期内克服了社会经济的落后性并在工业百化进程中一定程度上接近于发达国家水平的国家和地区。当时的新兴工业化国家如韩国，新加坡现都已被联合国归为发达国家，而当前的新兴工业化国家是指20世纪90年代涌现出度的发展中经济体，例如亚洲的中国、印度、伊朗；拉丁美洲的阿根廷和巴西；欧洲的土耳其，俄罗斯等。

Despite the severity of today’s shock, each layer of the system has adapted. The supply of cereals has been maintained, helped by recent harvests and very high stocks. Shipping firms and ports continue to move around food in bulk. The shift from eating out has had dramatic consequences for some companies. McDonald’s sales have dropped by about 70% in Europe. The big retailers have cut their ranges and rewired their distribution. Amazon’s grocery e-commerce capacity has risen by 60%; Walmart has hired 150,000 people. Crucially, most governments have learned the lesson of 2007-08 and avoided protectionism. In terms of calories, only 5% of food exports face restrictions, as against 19% back then. So far this year prices have dropped.

尽管当下的冲击严重，但粮食系统的每一层都已经适应了。由于最近的收成和非常高的库存，谷物供应得以维持。航运公司和港口继续大量运输食品。外出就餐的转变对一些公司产生了巨大的影响。麦当劳在欧洲的销售额下降了大约70%；大型零售商已经缩小了他们的销售范围，并重新布局了他们的分销渠道；亚马逊的杂货电子商务能力提高了60%；沃尔玛雇佣了15万人。最重要的是，大多数政府已经吸取了2007-20008年的教训，避免了保护主义。就粮食而言，只有5%的粮食出口面临限制，而当时这一比例有19%。截至目前，今年的价格已经下跌。

Cereal  n. 谷物;谷类食品;谷类

例句：Use wholegrain breakfast cereals wherever possible.只要有可能,尽量用全谷类早餐食品。

McDonald  n. 麦当劳（快餐店名称）

例句：I’ve been eating McDonald’s almost every meal here. 从我到这里来，我几乎每顿饭都在吃麦当劳。

Amazon  n. 亚马逊公司；亚马逊河；古希腊女战士

Walmart  n. 沃尔玛（世界连锁零售企业）

But the test is not over yet. As the industry has globalised, it has grown more concentrated, creating bottlenecks. Covid-19 outbreaks at several American slaughterhouses have cut pork supplies by a quarter—and boosted wild-turkey hunting licences in Indiana by 28%. America and Europe will need over 1m mi- grant workers from Mexico, north Africa and eastern Europe to bring in the harvest. And as the economy shrinks and incomes collapse, the number of people facing acute food shortages could rise—from 1.7% of the world’s population to 3.4%, the un reckons, including in some rich countries. This reflects a shortage of money, not food, but if people go hungry governments will, understandably, take extraordinary measures. The ever-present risk is that rising poverty or production glitches will lead panicky politicians to stockpile food and limit exports. As in 2007-08, this could cause a tit-for-tat response that makes things worse.

但考验还没有结束。随着行业的全球化，其变得更加集中，并产生了瓶颈。美国几家屠宰场爆发的Covid-19疫情使猪肉的供应减少了四分之一，将印第安纳州的野生火鸡狩猎许可证提高了28%。美国和欧洲将需要来自墨西哥、北非和东欧的超过100万名的农民工来收获。随着经济的萎缩和收入的减少，面临严重粮食短缺的人数可能会增加——据联合国估计，从占世界人口的1.7%上升到3.4%，包括在一些富裕国家。这反映的是资金短缺，而不是粮食短缺，但如果人们挨饿，政府将采取非常措施，这是可以理解的。长期存在的风险是，日益严重的贫困或生产故障问题将导致忧心忡忡的政客囤积粮食和限制出口。与2007至2008年的情况一样，这可能导致针锋相对的反应，使情况变得更糟。

Migrant worker  n. 移民工人；农民工；外来工人

例句：Migrant worker's Health Related Quality of Life is evaluated by NHP.  

       NHP量表评价农民工人群的健康相关生命质量。

Acute  adj. 严重的;剧烈的;有洞察力的;精明的;小于90°的;锐角的;高的;尖的;灵敏的;有尖端的

例句：I was overcome with acute nostalgia for my days at university.

      我强烈地怀念大学时代的生活。

UN  abbr. 联合国（UNITED NATIONS的缩略词）

例句：The international community should not rely on the UN to fix the world's problems.国际社会不应依赖联合国来解决世界上的问题。

Panicky  adj. 恐慌的

例句：He gabbled on in a panicky way until he was dismissed.他紧张慌乱地说个不停,直到被打发走才罢。

Governments need to hold their nerve and keep the world’s food system open for business. That means letting produce cross borders, offering visas and health checks to migrant workers, and helping the poor by giving them cash, not stockpiling. It also means guarding against further industry concentration which could grow, if weaker food firms go bust or are bought by bigger ones. And it means making the system more transparent, traceable and accountable—with, for example, certification and quality standards—so that diseases are less likely to jump undetected from animal to human.

各国政府需要保持冷静，保持世界粮食系统的正常运转。这意味着允许生产跨境产品，向小额信贷发放人员提供签证和提供健康检查，通过给他们现金而不是储存来帮助他们。这也意味着，如果较弱的粮食企业破产或被较大的粮食企业收购，将可以避免进一步的产业集中。这也意味着要使系统更加透明，可追溯性和可问责性更强，例如，通过认证和质量标准——这样疾病就不太可能在不被发现的情况下从动物传染给人类。

Stockpiling  v. 积蓄;库存;贮存

例句：Those who do not match the container is placed in a stockpiling area. 那些不匹配的集装箱被置于堆存区。

Traceable  adj. 可追踪的;起源于

例句：It is remarkable how many heresies are traceable to apologetic motives. 历史上不少异端，起源都是因为某种护教的动机

Undetected  adj. 未被觉察的;未探测到的;未被发现的

例句：Thieves escaped undetected after sawing through iron bars on a basement window. 窃贼在没有被察觉的情况下锯开地下室窗户上的铁条逃跑了。

To understand food as a national-security issue is wise; to bend that understanding to self-sufficiency drives and blunt intervention is not. Already, before this year, food had become part of a trade war. America has sought to manage its soyabean exports and put tariffs on cheese. President Donald Trump has designated abattoirs part of America’s critical infrastructure. President Emmanuel Macron has called for Europe to build up its “strategic autonomy” in agriculture. Yet food autarky is a delusion. Interdependence and diversity make you more secure.

将粮食问题理解为国家安全问题是明智的；将这种理解转变为自给自足的动力，而不是任意的干预。在今年之前，粮食已经成为贸易战的一部分。美国一直试图控制大豆出口，并对奶酪征收关税。唐纳德·特朗普总统已经将屠宰场指定为美国关键基础设施的一部分。法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙呼吁欧洲在农业方面建立“战略自主权”。然而，粮食自给自足是一种错觉。相互依赖和多样性才更有安全感。

Self-sufficiency  n. 自给自足;自负;独立性;自足

例句：Parent literacy training that leads to economic self - sufficiency .对父母进行的可以使经济实现自足的读写培训。

Trade war  n. 贸易战

Tariff  n. 关税

例句：I think we still have the biggest core tariffs in the world today. 我认为直到今天为止这里还存在着世界上最大的核心关税。

The work of the food-supply system is not yet done. In the next 30 years supply needs to rise by about 50% to meet the needs of a wealthier, growing population, even as the system’s carbon foot- print needs at least to halve. A new productivity revolution is re- quired, involving everything from high-tech greenhouses near cities to fruit-picking robots. That is going to require all the agility and ingenuity that markets can muster, and huge sums of private capital. This evening, when you pick up your chopsticks or your knife and fork, remember both those who are hungry and also the system feeding the world. It should be left free to work its magic not just during the pandemic, but after it, too.

粮食供应的工作尚未完成。在未来的30年里，碳的供应需要增加大约50%，以满足日益增长的富裕人口的需求，同时碳排放至少要减半。人们需要一场新的生产力革命，从城市附近的高科技温室到水果采摘机器人。这就需要市场所具备的所有灵活性和独创性，以及巨额私人资本。今天晚上，当你拿起你的筷子或刀叉时，记住那些饥饿的人，也记住世界粮食系统，应该让它自由发挥其魔力，不仅在疫情期间，同样在疫情之后。

Productivity revolution  n. 生产力革命

High-tech   adj. 高科技的;高技术的

例句：The town's new high-tech power plant is expected to go online this month.

这个镇新的高科技发电厂预计这个月就能启用了。

Private capital  n. 私人资本，民间资本

Pandemic  adj. 在全国流行的;泛流行的  n. 大流行病

例句：At no point does the report question the decision to declare a pandemic. 报告没有在任何方面对宣布大流行的决定提出质疑。

相关阅读

The global food system can be described, in most basic terms, as the production, processing, and distribution of food throughout the world, and is meant to "feed the world" and "reduce hunger and malnutrition" through trade by creating higher levels of food availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability. However, it cannot be said that the there is "a functioning global food system when one in seven people today still do not have access to sufficient food, and an equal number are over-fed".

全球粮食系统从最基本的角度可以描述为全世界粮食的生产、加工和分配，旨在通过贸易创造更高产量的粮食，“养活世界”并“减少饥饿和营养不良”。食物的可获得性、可及性、利用率和稳定性。然而，当今天仍然有七分之一的人口无法获得足够的粮食，而同样数量的人口又有过量的粮食，不能说有一个“正常运作的全球粮食系统”。

——The Global Food System

“As the virus spreads and cases mount, and measures tighten to curb the spread of the virus, there are countless ways the food systems at all levels will be tested and strained in the coming weeks and months,” the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations declared at the end of March.

联合国粮食及农业组织（粮农组织） ）于3月底宣布成立：“随着病毒的传播和病例的增加，以及为遏制病毒的传播而采取的紧缩措施，未来数周和数月内，将有无数种方法对各级粮食系统进行测试和过滤。”

Starting at that first step in the chain, the U.S. food supply could first be affected by disruptions in farm labor. Many farms rely on workers who come from Mexico and other countries via temporary agricultural H-2A visas, and while the Trump administration is allowing workers to come in, fewer workers may make the journey, given the situation. Farmworkers are also particularly vulnerable to coronavirus, and outbreaks in the fields could occur.

从供应链的第一步开始，美国食品供应可能首先受到农业劳动力中断的影响。许多农场依赖通过临时H-2A农业签证从墨西哥和其他国家来的工人，特朗普政府允许工人进来，但鉴于目前的疫情，几乎没有工人可以出国可以。农场工人还特别容易受到冠状病毒的侵害，田间可能出现疫情。

——What Happens When the Food Supply Is Disrupted by a Pandemic

Trade policy, both in the U.S. and abroad, is another key component of the global food supply chain. The seemingly capricious imposition of non-tariff trade barriers, such as antidumping and countervailing duties, quotas, certain regulatory requirements, and sanitary and phytosanitary measures, amount to one more area that’s prone to fluctuation when it comes to imports and exports of food and beverages throughout the world.

美国和国外的贸易政策是全球粮食供应链的另一个关键组成部分。非关税贸易壁垒的表面上反复无常，例如反倾销和反补贴税、配额、某些法规要求和卫生和植物检疫措施，在食品和饮料进出口方面容易造成波动，从而波及世界。

According to Kam Quarles, director for legislative affairs at McDermott Will & Emery LLP (and a member of Food Logistics’ editorial advisory board), says that while the World Trade Organization (WTO) and various free trade agreements (FTAs) have addressed tariff barriers, “a lot of the future impediments (to global trade) may transition to phytosanitary barriers.” He remarks, “We spend a great deal of time working on pest and disease issues.”

根据McDermott Will＆Emery LLP的立法事务主管（也是食品物流公司的编辑顾问委员会的成员）Kam Quarles所说：“尽管世界贸易组织（WTO）和各种自由贸易协定（FTA）都解决了关税壁垒，“（全球贸易的）许多未来障碍可能会转变为植物检疫壁垒。”他说：“我们花了大量时间在病虫害问题上。”

And, while the U.S. “vigorously adheres to international protocols surrounding sanitary and phytosanitary measures,” which must be based in sound science, “there is a lot of variation from country to country,” says Quarles. “One country’s definition of ‘sound science,’ especially if they have a very active political constituency, may differ widely from the U.S.”

Quarles说：“尽管美国大力遵守围绕卫生和植物检疫措施的国际协议（这些协议必须以可靠的科学为基础），但各国之间存在很大差异。一个国家对“声音科学”的定义可能与美国大相径庭，特别如果它们拥有非常活跃的政治选区的话。”

——The Global Food Supply Chain

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