外刊精读：面对大流行的两种未来

COViD-19 will not be the last pandemic in our deeply interconnected world, and sadly it won’t be the worst. Two profoundly different possible futures are available to us: one in which we stick our heads in the sand as we have consistently done, and one where humanity takes the hard, necessary steps to protect itself.

新冠病毒将不会是在我们这个彼此紧密相连的世界上的最后一次大流行，遗憾的是，它也不会是最糟糕的。于我们而言，有两种截然不同的未来可供选择：一种是一如既往地逃避现实， 另一种，是采取一些艰难而必要的措施来保护自己。

profoundly：adv. 深刻地；深深地；极度地

例句：This film will make every Chinese rethink profoundly. 该片使每个中国人作深刻的反思。

In a world where we take the path toward resilience, we will universally eliminate the wild-animal trade, stopping many epidemics from occurring in the first place. Most viral epidemics spill over from wild animals, particularly animals closely related to us, like mammals. Eliminating the wildlife trade will reduce spillovers by breaking the link between wild animals and dense cities with vast human populations.

在这个我们走上“休养生息”之路的世界里，我们将普遍消除野生动物贸易，从源头阻止许多流行病的发生。大多数病毒性传染病是从野生动物那里传播过来的，特别是与我们密切相关的动物，如哺乳动物。禁止野生动物贸易将打破野生动物和有着巨大人口的密集城市之间的联系，从而减少影响。

resilience：n. 弹力;顺应力;弹性;快速恢复的能力

例句：He sustained the role of Creon with burly resilience.他充满活力地扮演了克瑞翁这个角色。

epidemics：n. 流行病; (迅速的) 泛滥，蔓延;

例句：This increases the risk of dengue haemorrhagic fever epidemics by introducing new dengue viruses into susceptible populations.通过将新的登革病毒传入易感人群增加了登革出血热流行的危险。

spill over：波及；扩散；印象。Spill，溢出；洒出。

例句：AT& T and DuPont said they would cut capital spending, which will spill over to their suppliers.AT&T和杜邦称，它们将削减资本支出，这将波及它们的供应商。

spillover：n. 伴随的结果（或影响）

例句：Spillover damage from the building's demolition was confined to some broken glass.拆除这座大楼带来的损失仅仅是一些玻璃被震碎了。

break the link between … and …：打破…和…的联系

Such a ban won’t completely eliminate contact with wildlife viruses. But in a resilient future, we will know our enemy better than we do now, thanks to the virologists currently seeking out and studying as many viruses as possible. Virologists estimate that wild animals carry approximately 750,000 viruses with the ability to infect people. This seems like a huge number, but pilot efforts like USAID’s PREDICT program have demonstrated the feasibility of a comprehensive inventory of these viruses. The envisioned Global Virome Project will cost billions of dollars—and will do for epidemics what the Human Genome Project has done for medicine, providing the scientific world with detailed knowledge of the viruses that will cause tomorrow’s pandemics. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations has already raised hundreds of millions of dollars to develop vaccine pipelines for future pandemics, and armed with genetic data from the 750,000 viruses, it would be able to establish viral libraries before novel epidemics emerge— dramatically decreasing the time to develop a new vaccine.

这样的禁令不会完全消除与野生动物病毒的接触。但是在一个适应力强的未来，由于病毒学家正在研究和找寻尽可能很多的病毒，我们将比现在更了解我们的敌人。病毒学家估计，野生动物携带约有75万种能够感染人类的病毒。这似乎是一个庞大的数字，但像美国国际开发署的PREDICT项目这样的试点工作已经证明了对这些病毒进行全面清查的可行性。据设想，全球病毒大流行项目将耗资数十亿美元，其对流行病的影响将同人类基因组计划对医学的影响一样，为科学界提供将导致未来大流行的病毒的详细信息。流行病防范创新联盟已经募集了数亿美元来开发未来大流行病的疫苗管道，并利用了75万种病毒的遗传数据，它将能够在新的流行病出现之前建立病毒库，大大减少开发新疫苗的时间。

thanks to : 由于；幸亏

svirologists：n. 病毒学家

pilot : adj. 试验性的；试点的

例句：If the UK pilot scheme / USpilot program is successful many more homes will be offered the new television service.如果试验计划成功，会有越来越多的家庭享受到新的电视服务。

例句：I told you my father was this famous virologist.我告诉过你我爸爸是病毒学家。

USAID：全称U.S. Agency for International Development，指美国国际开发总署。是美国联邦政府的一个组织，属于美国的援外机构。成立于1961年，主要承担着美国大部分对外非军事性的援助工作，目的在承办开发贷款，推动技术援助方案，分配军援及对480公法(Public Law 480)案下所进行的农业剩余物资的处理

feasibility：n. 可行性

例句：IThe feasibility of screening athletes for cardiac disease.给运动员做心脏病检查的可行性。

envisioned：v. 想象；预想；展望

例句：She envisioned the admiring glances of guests seeing her home.她想像着客人们看到她的家时那种羡慕的目光。

The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations：流行病预防创新联盟

Vaccines help stop epidemics, but so does money. In a resilient future, early cases of an outbreak will trigger the immediate release of funds to control it, by way of sovereign or regional- level epidemic-insurance policies. The global hot spots where epidemics historically have emerged overlap with some of the world’s least developed countries. Today, serious financial limitations can make it hard for leaders in such countries to respond to outbreaks in time. When politicians balk, epidemics ignite. In a resilient future, this won’t happen; instead, dedicated funds will automatically flow into preprogrammed rapid response efforts.

虽说疫苗有助于阻止流行病，但资金不足却可能限制疫情的控制。在一个适应性强的未来，疫情早期的爆发情况将通过主权或区域一级的流行保险政策触发资金的立刻释放来控制疫情。历史上出现流行病的全球热点地区与世界上一些最不发达的国家重叠。现如今，严重的经济限制使得这些国家的领导人很难及时应对突发事件。当政客们踌躇不前时，流行病就会爆发。而在一个适应性强的未来，这样的情况将不会再发生；相反，专用资金还将自动流入预先规划的快速应急工作中去。

trigger：v. 引发;引起;促使;开动

例句：Environmental factors trigger the switch from vegetative to floral development. 环境因素刺激了从无性发育到花发育的转变。

balk：vi. 犹豫

例句：I balked at the prospect of spending four hours on a train with him.想到要与他一起在火车上度过四个小时，我就感到心不甘情不愿的。

ignite：v. 燃烧；爆炸

dedicated：adj. 专用（于…）的;专门（为…而）设计制造的

例句：Such areas should also be served by dedicated cycle routes. 这些区域也应该设专门的自行车道。

The modern world depends largely on companies for employment, and they were caught terribly off guard by COVID-19, resulting in unprecedented job loss. In a resilient future, that will change. The private sector already knows how to protect itself from catastrophic events. For a litany of catastrophes, including hurricane, earthquake, cyber, terror and food, companies have resilience plans and insurance to manage their exposure—but not for epidemics. In a resilient future, companies will have chief epidemic security officers poring over company- specific risk assessments, developing tailored mitigation plans, and obtaining independent epidemic- preparedness certifications. They will also have insurance.

现代世界在很大程度上依赖公司的就业，但这些公司却被新冠病毒打了个措手不及，以至面临了前所未有的失业。在一个适应性强的未来，这种情况将得到改善。私营部门已经知道如何保护自己免受灾难性事件的影响。对于一连串的灾难，包括飓风、地震、网络问题、恐怖和洪水，公司都有应对计划和相应保障来管控他们所带来的的风险，但对流行病，却没有。在一个适应性强的未来，公司将设立首席流行病安全官围绕公司特定的风险进行评估，制定有针对性的缓解计划，并获得独立的流行病防范认证。他们也将会购买保险。

catch off guard: 乘（人）不备；使猝不及防 If someone catches you off guard, they surprise you by doing something you do not expect. If something catches you off guard, it surprises you by happening when you are not expecting it.

catastrophic: adj. 大灾难的；大灾祸的；极大规模突变的；极不幸的；极不成功的；

例句：The body undergoes catastrophic collapse towards the state of a black hole.天体经历着朝黑洞状态的大崩溃。

litany：n. 连祷;连祷文;枯燥冗长的一串文字

例句：Let me just demonstrate the litany of pie. Okay, page 15.让我来展示一下这冗长的派，看第15页。

catastrophes：n. 大灾难惨败;大灾难;大祸;(catastrophe的复数)

poring over: 仔细阅读；认真钻研 If you pore over or through information, you look at it and study it very carefully.

tailored: adj. 特制的；特供的

You may wonder what insurance company would risk offering business coverage for epidemics, particularly after seeing the losses from COVID-19. The world felt similarly after 9/11. Following 9/11, lenders, for example, would no longer agree to finance the construction of high-rises without terrorism insurance, and insurers were ill-equipped to offer such coverage. What resulted in the U.S. was the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, which enables the insurance industry to write policies to protect against terrorism with the assurance that if the losses go beyond a certain level the government will step in. Governments around the world will create similar backstops for pandemic insurance, permitting insurers to adapt to a post-COVID-19 reality. Insurers will learn to take on more and more of the burden, decreasing the cost to taxpayers when the next one hits. Insured companies means fewer layoffs, and in some countries companies may have to guarantee this to participate in the program.

你可能在疑惑有什么公司会冒险给流行病提供商业保险，尤其是在看到来自新冠病毒的损失后。在911事件后，整个世界也有同样的感觉。例如，在911后，贷款机构将不再同意向没有恐怖主义保险的高楼建设提供资金，而保险公司也无力提供此类保险。导致美国出台《恐怖主义风险保险法》的原因是，该法案允许保险行业制定防范恐怖主义的保单，并保证如果损失超过一定水平的政府将会介入。世界各国政府将为大流行保险建立类似的后盾，允许保险公司适应后新冠病毒形势。保险公司将学会承担越来越多的负担，在下一次危机来临时降低纳税人的成本。有保险的公司意味着更少的裁员，在一些国家，公司可能不得不保证参加这个项目。

coverage：n. 覆盖，覆盖范围；新闻报道；保险范围。insurance coverage：保险责任范围。

ill-equipped：adj. 装备不完善的，能力欠缺的

Terrorism Risk Insurance Act：恐怖主义风险保险法。

protect against：动词短语，保护，保卫。

例句：It has been claimed that wine helps protect against heart disease. 有人声称葡萄酒有助于预防心脏病。

step in：动词短语，干涉；介入；进入；涉足。

例句：If no agreement was reached, the army would step in. 如果无法达成协议，军队将会介入。

backstop：n. 挡球网；捕手；支撑物；后备方案。

take on：

①承担，接受(尤指艰巨工作或重大责任)

例句：Don't take on more responsibilities than you can handle. 不要承担过多的责任。

②呈现，显出(新面貌或新特点)

例句：Believing he had only a year to live, his writing took on a feverish intensity. 由于以为自己只剩一年的活头，他的文字开始变得激情澎湃。

③(公共汽车、船舶等)上(客)，装(货)，补充(燃料)

例句：This is a brief stop to take on passengers and water. 这是一次短暂停靠，上上客，加加水。

④PHRASAL VERB 雇用;录用

例句：He's spoken to a publishing firm. They're going to take him on.他和一家出版公司谈过了，他们打算雇用他。

⑤与(尤指实力比自己强的人)较量；接受…的挑战

例句：I knew I couldn't take him on. 我清楚我斗不过他。

⑥擅自决定;自作主张

例句：Knox had taken it on himself to choose the wine. 诺克斯擅自作主，选了葡萄酒。

layoff：n.停工，停止活动；临时解雇；操作停止；失业期

Future solutions will take advantage of technologies that don’t even exist and boggle the mind. Our resilient future, for example, will include digital immunity passports not imaginable a decade ago. If an app can be safe enough to store and use credit-card information, it can do the same for a lab result. Like the yellow immunization cards that people keep with their passports, such apps will certify individuals’ immunity to viruses they have been vaccinated against. They will also be linked to diagnostic test results so that individuals, when recovered and immune, can re-enter the workforce. These systems will give individuals and their communities confidence to return to normal more rapidly, and the data will give health officials real-time susceptibility maps showing what regions need to be quarantined and where to focus vaccination efforts.

未来的解决方案将利用那些根本不存在的技术，并且让人大吃一惊。例如，我们充满可塑性的未来将包括十年前无法想象的数字免疫护照。如果一个应用程序可以安全的存储和使用信用卡信息，它也可以对实验结果做同样的事情。就像人们随身携带的黄色免疫卡一样，这些应用程序将证明个人对接种过疫苗的病毒的免疫力。它们还将与诊断测试结果相关联，这样当个体恢复和免疫后，就可以重新进入劳动力市场。这些系统将使个人和他们的社区有信心更快地恢复正常，而这些数据将向卫生官员提供实时易感性地图，显示哪些地区需要隔离，以及在哪些地方集中开展疫苗接种工作。

take advantage of：动词词组，利用。

boggle the mind：[非正式]不可理解；不可思议；难以置信。

susceptibility：n. 易受影响(或损害)的状况

It’s hard to be optimistic during one of the greatest crises of modern times. Here’s how: First, imagine this epidemic had occurred 20 years ago, in a world with limited Internet, remote work systems, e-commerce and grocery delivery. A world ill-equipped to detect an outbreak and sequence a virus in days, and scale diagnostics in weeks and vaccines in months. Then imagine that now, with all of these tools, humanity fully realizes the scale of the risks it faces and puts its remarkable capacity to adapt and innovate into protecting itself from future pandemics. That is the only future we can choose. And it can start now if we want it to.

在现代社会最严重的危机之一期间，乐观起来是很难的。应对方法如下：首先，想象一下这种流行病发生在20年前，当时的世界互联网、远程工作系统、电子商务和杂货配送都很有限。这个世界没有能力在数天内发现疫情并对病毒进行测序，也没有能力在数周内完成诊断，数月内完成疫苗接种。那么想象一下，现在，有了所有这些工具，人类充分认识到它所面临的风险的规模，并将其非凡的适应和创新能力用于保护自己免受未来流行病的侵袭。这是我们唯一可以选择的未来。如果我们愿意，现在就可以开始。

e-commerce：n. 电子商务

相关阅读

1、更多公司寻求流行病保险

As the disease continues to spread, many companies and organizations have had to cancel or postpone major events around the world. That has led to increased interest in epidemic insurance.

"We definitely do see rising demand in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak," said Axel Rakette, a spokesperson for insurer Munich Re. "But it's not a common product — yet."

Events typically are protected by insurance policies in the event of cancellations. But most standard policies don't cover cancellations caused by communicable diseases and outbreaks. Insurers offer restricted coverage for epidemics or pandemics as a buy-back, which means a higher premium, so most companies don't opt to purchase it.

——Companies seek epidemic insurance as coronavirus affects events

随着疾病继续蔓延，许多公司和组织不得不取消或推迟世界各地的重大活动。这引起了人们对流行病保险的兴趣。

Munich Re保险公司发言人阿克塞尔•拉凯特(Axel Rakette)表示：“在冠状病毒爆发后，我们确实看到了需求的增长。”“但它还不是一种常见的产品。”

事件通常受到保单的保护，以防取消。但大多数标准的保单并不包括因传染病和疾病爆发而导致的保单取消。保险公司为流行病或流行病提供有限的保险作为回购，这意味着更高的保费，所以大多数公司不选择购买它。

2、人类对野生动物的影响是病毒传播的罪魁祸首

Hunting, farming and the global move of people to cities has led to massive declines in biodiversity and increased the risk of dangerous viruses like Covid-19 spilling over from animals to humans, a major study has concluded.

Wild animals that have adapted well to human-dominated environments also share more viruses with people. Rodents, bats and primates – which often live among people, and close to houses and farms – together were implicated as hosts for nearly 75% of all viruses. Bats alone have been linked to diseases like Sars, Nipah, Marburg and Ebola.

The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B, found that the spillover risk was highest from threatened and endangered wild animals whose populations had declined largely due to hunting, the wildlife trade and loss of habitat.

——Human impact on wildlife to blame for spread of viruses, says study

一项重大研究得出结论，狩猎、农业和全球人口向城市迁移导致生物多样性大幅下降，并增加了Covid-19等危险病毒从动物传播到人类的风险。

已经很好地适应了人类主导的环境的野生动物也与人类共享更多的病毒。啮齿动物、蝙蝠和灵长类动物——它们通常生活在人类中间，而且离房屋和农场很近——被认为是近75%的所有病毒的宿主。仅蝙蝠就与Sars、尼帕病毒、马尔堡病毒和埃博拉病毒等疾病有关。

这项发表在《英国皇家学会学报B辑》(Proceedings of The Royal Society B)杂志上的研究发现，受到威胁和濒临灭绝的野生动物的溢出风险最高，它们的数量主要由于狩猎、野生动物贸易和栖息地的丧失而减少。

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