JIA “中国食物，营养与健康经济”专题【转】

*本文转自公众号“北京食品安全政策与战略研究基地”，原标题“基地白军飞教授与朱晨副教授联合《农业科学学报》共同组织2019年8期“中国食物，营养与健康经济”专题”；7篇论文摘要在英文简介后。

Journal of Integrative Agriculture (JIA)《农业科学学报》中国农业科学院农业信息研究所主办的一个SCI杂志，设有栏目“Agricultural Economics and Management”，包括Agricultural economics、Food economics 、Environmental economics 、Agricultural policy 、Farm management。

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    曾几何时，世界一度怀疑中国能否养活自己。然短短三四十年后的今天，超重、肥胖、食品安全等这些似乎与我们无关的事情，却不知不觉中成了困扰我国社会和很多家庭的大问题。这种转变的背后一方面说明过去我国整个农业和食物供给体系的巨大成功，但另一方面也意味着传统的生产体系正面临越来越多的新挑战，迫切需要进行科学的供给侧改革和制度创新。但改革该向哪里去？创新该从何处入手？回答这些问题，需要深刻探讨和认知需求端的主体行为及其背后的驱动因素与机制。

    基于这个动机，中国农业大学经济管理学院教授、北京食品安全政策与战略研究基地首席专家白军飞教授与朱晨副教授联合Journal of Integrative Agriculture (JIA) 共同组织了2019年8期“中国食物、营养与健康经济”专题。经过一年左右严格的初选、评审、修改、编校等环节，今天正式呈现给大家。我们并不期望一个专题能把所有的问题讲清楚，仅希望通过此次尝试，抛砖引玉，推动社会各界从需求端审视我国的农业与食物供给系统。

白军飞教授

北京食品安全政策与战略研究基地

朱晨副教授

北京食品安全政策与战略研究基

China has achieved unprecedented successes in feeding the 1.3 billion population in the past few decades. Per capita occupation of grain and milk increased from 316.6 and 1 kg in 1978 to 445.7 and 26.85 kg in 2016, respectively.  Per capita meat occupation also reached 61.9 kg in 2016 from nearly nothing at the beginning of the reform and opening (NBSC 1979–2018). With these successes in agricultural production, the quality of food consumption has also improved significantly. Although food remains the largest household expenditure, the Engel coefficient, an average ratio of food expenditure over income, has declined from 67.7% in 1978 to 29.33% in 2017 (NBSC 1979–2018). In addition, the enriched food consumption has generated remarkable human welfare improvement. A newborn boy in 1970 could expect to live to age 63, but by 2015, that same boy could expect to live to 73.64 years (WHO 2001, 2016). In 2010, the underweight rate for children less than 5 years old, a commonly used proxy for health status, was 3.6% compared with 74% in 1990. Such improvements are ascribed to the market-oriented pricing reform of agricultural commodities, the household responsibility system, and a series of other technological progresses, institutional innovations and market reforms.

Yet, new challenges have occurred in the recent decade. Particularly, the increasing prevalence of obesity and chronic diseases has become a serious public concern in China (Popkin et al. 2012; Du et al. 2014; Gordon-Larsen et al. 2014; Yuan et al. 2019). A recent article in The Lancet shows that China has passed the United States to become the frontrunner in the absolute number of obese citizens (NCD-RisC 2016). In 2014, China's men and women contributed 16.3 and 12.4%, respectively, to global obesity. Although these numbers did not consider China's huge population base, they reflect a sharp increase from 1975 when only 2.1% of men and 2.5% of women were obese (NCD-RisC 2016), but with a high prevalence of undernutrition. It is unbelievable that in just 40 years China has transitioned from a country in which parents worried about where their children's next meal would come from to one where overweight has become one of the top public concerns.  

Another challenge is related to food safety. The globally well-publicized melamine-contaminated baby formula scandal disclosed in 2008 was a milestone triggering public concerns about Chinese food safety. That desperate Chinese parents seeking baby formula outside the country was often listed on the top in both international and domestic news media. The series of food safety issues involving meat, eggs, and other fresh vegetables following the baby formula scandal further put Chinese consumers at the peak of panic. Facing the challenges, the Chinese government and the entire agricultural and food industries carried out a series of active measures to ensure food safety, including significantly enhancing laws and regulations, tremendously investing in R&D for food safety detection and new technology implementation, and so forth. These active measures have largely strengthened and improved China's food safety environment, but there is certainly still a long way to go to win back consumers' confidence in domestic food and food products.  

It is no doubt that technological progress played critical roles and will continue to play the role in the future in curving these challenges. Yet, establishing an efficient food system with healthier, more nutritious, and safer food needs a better understanding of the economic behaviors of all agents in the market. This is particularly important for food-related policymaking in many emerging economies like China where the coexistence of undernutrition, deficiency of micronutrients, and overweight and obesity is a common challenge to the society and individual households. Though related literature has shed light on these issues, this special combination provides more frontier research updates and more pieces of evidence.  

We start this summary by asking a fundamental question: do improvements in living standards lead to the increase in obesity? To answer this question, Zhao and Zheng (2019) employ the neoclassic theory of economics in obesity and China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data to empirically estimate the impact of income, often a most powerful driver, on adults' body mass indices (BMIs).  The results of their study indicate that the income had a significant and inverted U-shaped impact on weight for both urban and rural males, while the effect is negative for urban but positive for rural females. These findings suggest a continuing growth of overweight and obesity prevalence in China for both urban and rural male and rural female adults with further income growth in the near future. The turning point without any intervention is unlikely to appear in a foreseeable period. Measures stimulating physical activities to burn the over intakes of nutrients could be effective in mitigating the rising burden both for individual adults and the society.  

The main findings from Zhao and Zheng (2019) are further confirmed by Ren et al. (2019) who use a different method and more indicators reflecting overweight initiation, cessation, and termination. Their results show that body weight and the likelihood of overweight commencement are concavely associated with income, while the likelihood of overweight discontinuance posts a convex relation with income. This finding suggests that low-income people in China are less likely to be overweight than their counterparts in many developed countries. Heterogeneous effects by gender and between urban and rural are also discussed in their study.  

This session also includes two papers that focus on the health and nutrient intake issues for two specific population groups. Liu et al. (2019) try to build up a linkage between nutrient intake and primary students' mental performance. Using a randomized controlled trial involving 6 044 fourth and fifth graders in rural Northwestern China, their results show that a nutrition subsidy provided significantly improved students' mental health status as measured by anxiety scale. However, the add-on incentive provided to school principals could almost entirely offset the beneficial impact of the nutrition subsidy. Therefore, to improve students' mental health in rural China, direct subsidies, such as low-priced school meals, and correct incentives tied closely to students' mental health outcomes should be considered simultaneously.  

Min et al. (2019) move their focus to left-behind family members' food consumption and nutrient intake in remote areas of Southwestern China.  Based on household survey data collected from 611 smallholder rubber farmers in Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture, they find that the migration of family members contributes to improving household net income, whereas it negatively affects left-behind family members' consumption of grain and pork. These results suggest that, in some remote areas such as in Southwestern China, rising income may not automatically translate into a structural change in food consumption and better nutrient intake that was observed in other regions or countries. Future research should pay more attention to reveal the reasons and mechanisms behind this stickiness.  

The rest of this column selects three studies that examine food safety related issues. The first one is by Li et al. (2019) which studies Chinese consumers' confidence in domestic dairy products. Since the infant formula scandal in 2008, dairy products have been on a hot-pot of public criticism and always in the center of food safety related discussions. The Chinese government and the entire dairy industry have made tremendous efforts to improve the safety level and to bring consumers back to the market. Results from surveying consumers in Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang, however, are not that optimistic as expected. The safety of domestically produced infant formulas is still heavily doubted (Li et al. 2019), despite that quality certification, being produced organically, and being fully traceable can positively affect consumers' confidence in these products.  

However, whether being traceable can enhance consumer's confidence in food safety and reshape their risk attitudes towards domestically produced food products as expected may depend on individual exposure to social media and the various relationships he/she has with the cultural environment he/she is embedded in. In the study by Yan et al. (2019), researchers employ an analytical framework based on the social embeddedness theory to reveal the impact of consumers' social activities on their risk perception. The results of quantile regression models show that interpersonal relationships, organizational relationships, and social relationships have significant impacts on consumer's risk perception at different quantile levels.  

In addition to enhance consumers risk perception of food safety, food traceability can also promote a firm's performance. Using a dataset of 216 food manufacturing firms in China, Song et al. (2019) reveal the existence of the association between food traceability information sharing and corporate performance.  The fundamental mechanism is that food traceability information sharing can enhance a firm's operational and marketing capabilities, and further contribute to its profitability. This hypothesis is verified by using hierarchical regressions and bootstrapping methods. They also show that operations and marketing capabilities translate the interactive impacts of environmental turbulence and traceability information sharing into firm performance. Moreover, this study demonstrates for the first time that at both high and medium levels of environmental turbulence, food traceability information sharing strengthens operations and marketing capabilities, consequently contributing to firm performance.

It has been a long time since the entire Chinese academia gave dominated priority to agricultural production when a higher yield was needed to meet the growing food demand. Yet, this situation has gradually changed with the 13-year-in-a-row yield increase of three major grains (corn, wheat and rice) by 2016. The continuously rising income and upgrading consumer taste for healthier, safer and better-quality food are posing substantial challenges to China's traditional agricultural production system. They are also exerting considerable pressure on individual households and the society in handling the rising overweight and obesity problems. Studies combined in this column shed more light on understanding these issues from the perspective of food demand which was commonly ignored, and thus will serve as a starting point for more future research.  

Jun-fei BAI

Guest Editor

Beijing Food Safety Policy & Strategy Research Base

China Agricultural University

Chen ZHU

Guest co-Editor

Beijing Food Safety Policy & Strategy Research Base

China Agricultural University

专题文章一览

Do Improvements of living standards lead to growth of obesity?Evidence from Chinese adults

生活水平提高必然会导致肥胖吗？——来自中国城乡成年居民的证据

ZHAO Yin-yu, ZHENG Zhi-hao

中国成人肥胖的迅速蔓延已经使其成为亟待解决的公共健康问题，了解肥胖产生和蔓延的成因对于制定相应的干预措施有重要意义。基于新古典肥胖理论，本文采用1989-2011年中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）数据，估计了收入增长对中国城乡成年男女居民体重变化的影响。本文的研究结果显示，收入增长对城乡成年男性居民均呈显著的倒U型影响，对城市成年女性居民有显著的负向影响，对农村成年女性居民则有显著的正向影响。上述结果意味着，未来的收入增长将会进一步促进城乡成年男性居民和农村成年女性居民肥胖问题的蔓延。另外，代表职业性质的体力活动强度显著地降低了城市女性外的成年居民的BMI值，表明经济发展和技术进步导致的中国成人体力活动强度下降是成人肥胖率上升的重要因素。

Low-income and overweight in China: Evidence from a life-courseutility model

中国低收入与超重——来自生命历程效用模型的证据

REN Yan-jun, Bente Castro Campos, Jens-Peter Loy, Stephan Brosig

现有研究证明在发达国家低收入人群更倾向于具有不良的健康行为。通过在生命历程效用模型中引入收入（作为当期预算约束并且对未来健康产生影响），本文检验了在中国收入与超重之间的相关关系。利用中国营养健康调查数据（CHNS），本文估计了收入与起始超重，终止超重，及超重参与率之间的关系。结果表明当收入增加，BMI， 起始超重，及超重参与率会随之增加但是增加的速率会逐渐减小，即收入与BMI，起始超重，及超重参与率之间存在倒U型关系。然而，当收入增加，终止超重会随之减少但是减少的速率会逐渐增大，即收入与终止超重之间存在正U型关系。因此，不同于发达国家，在与中国类似的转型国家低收入人群更不倾向于超重。原因主要是由于收入依然作为预算约束，限制了低收入人群的不健康消费行为。然而，当收入超过倒U曲线的临界值，低收入人群将会从未来健康得到较少的效用从而更倾向于具有不健康的消费行为。同时，女性和城市居民具有较低的临界值，因此相较于男性与城市居民他们的这种转变会相对较早。

Better nutrition, healthier mind? Experimental evidence from primary schools in rural northwestern China

“更好的营养，更健康的心灵？”——来自中国西北农村地区小学的实验证据

 LIU Xiao-yue, ZHAO Qi-ran, CHEN Qi-hui 

改革开放以来，中国的教育事业取得了长足的发展，但是，我国广大农村地区的教育发展仍然面临着许多挑战。特别是，西北农村地区中小学在校生中普遍存在营养不良和心理健康问题，有可能严重地阻碍他们的学业进步与人力资本积累。为了进一步理解这些问题的成因和可能的解决途径，本文尝试探索不同健康问题之间的功能性联系。具体地，本文试图回答：营养不良是否加剧了学生的心理健康问题？为了回答这一问题，本文作者以青海和宁夏农村地区57所小学的近6000名四、五年级学生为对象，开展了一项营养干预实验。实验将57所学校随机分为一个对照组（27所学校）和两个干预组（各15所学校），一组为学校提供营养餐补贴，另一组在相同补贴的基础上为学校管理者提供额外的奖金激励，奖金额度与实验期末该校学生贫血率的降低程度挂钩。研究发现，实验所提供的营养补贴显著地提高了学生的心理健康状况（以常用的焦虑量表衡量）。但是，额外提供给学校管理者的奖金激励在很大程度上抵消了营养补贴的作用，这可能是由于针对贫血率下降的奖金激励分散了学校管理者对于学生心理健康问题的关注。这一发现的政策启示是，为有效改善中国农村中小学生的健康状况，有关部门不仅应提供诸如营养餐这样的直接补贴，还应提供与干预目标相互配套的激励，防止由于不同激励目标间的不兼容而导致的资源错配或效率损失。因此，各有关部门（如教育、卫生和农业部门）和组织机构（如非营利组织和国际机构）应通力协作、相互配合，以尽量提高不同干预措施和激励目标之间的兼容度。

The impact of migration on the food consumption and nutrition of left-behind family members: Evidence from a minority mountainous region of southwestern China

农民外出务工对留守家庭成员食物消费和营养摄入的影响:来自中国西南少数民族山区的证据

 MIN Shi, HOU Ling-ling, Hermann Waibel, HUANG Ji-kun, MU Yue-ying

外出务工是提高农民收入的有效途径，但农民外出务工对留守家庭成员的福利影响并不明确。基于对中国云南省西双版纳傣族自治州611名农户的家庭综合调研数据，本文采用工具变量法与倾向得分匹配法测算了农民外出务工对留守家庭成员的食物消费和营养摄入的影响。研究发现：家庭成员的外出务工有助于提高家庭净收入，但对留守家庭成员的粮食和猪肉消费量有负面影响；外出务工引起的忽视效应还导致了留守家庭成员的营养摄入减少。结果表明：边远山区农民外出务工的经济回报不仅没能促进农村家庭食物消费从以主食为主的饮食结构向以肉类和奶制品为主的饮食结构转变升级，而且还恶化了留守家庭成员的营养状况。这项研究不仅补充了关于农民外出务工福利影响的文献，而且对于更好地理解外出务工对边远山区农户生计与人力资本发展的影响具有重要现实意义。

Consumer confidence and consumers’ preferences for infant formulas in China

消费者信心与国产婴幼儿奶粉属性偏好研究——以中国北方城市为例

 LI Sai-wei, ZHU Chen, CHEN Qi-hui, LIU Yu-mei 

国产婴幼儿奶粉安全事件频频发生，造成了严重的消费者信任危机。深入了解中国消费者对国产婴幼儿奶粉安全的信心以及其对购买行为的影响，对于提振消费者信心、增强国产奶业的竞争力至关重要。本研究以北京、天津、石家庄的450名城市消费者为样本，采用一个两维度量表（乐观与悲观）测度消费者对国产婴幼儿奶粉安全的信心。然后，通过选择实验方法探究消费者信心对国产婴幼儿奶粉偏好的影响，其产品属性包括质量认证、有机原料奶、可追溯性、奶源地、动物福利和价格。研究结果显示，中国消费者对国产婴幼儿奶粉的安全仍然缺乏信心。质量认证是消费者购买国产婴幼儿奶粉时最重视的产品属性，其次是有机原料奶与可追溯性。进一步分析发现，消费者对国产婴幼儿奶粉的偏好受到信心的显著影响。对于悲观的消费者，价格具有传递高质量信号的作用，对购买行为产生积极的影响。同时，消费者越悲观，也更偏好购买可追溯、动物福利水平高的国产婴幼儿奶粉。对于积极的消费者，相比其他奶源地，他们对奶源地为河北的国产婴幼儿奶粉支付意愿更高。

Are social embeddedness associated with food risk perception under media coverage?

媒体报道下社会嵌入与消费者食品安全风险感知

YAN Zhen, HUANG Zu-hui, WANG Yu, ZHOU Jie-hong

媒体曝光的食品事件借由社交平台大范围传播，易使食品风险信号从潜在技术风险向复杂的社会风险转化，导致公众对食品质量风险以及潜在健康风险感知增加。本文引入社会嵌入理论构建不同层面社会关系的消费者风险感知分析框架，收集了正面和负面两类典型食品质量安全新闻报道作为信息干预，以识别不同语调新闻下消费者食品风险感知形成路径。分位数回归结果发现，当人们处于较低风险感知水平时，第一层面人际关系的网络社交和线下社交是主要影响因素。随着分位数提高，第二层面的媒体报道重要性及食品安全认知表现显著正向影响。高分位数区，第三个层面中与组织机构关系、与企业关系及与生产者关系和风险感知显著相关，表明食品质量安全风险感知存在“涟漪效应”。比较两组间消费者的风险感知影响路径，风险放大及涟漪效应在负面报道组中表现明显，并且线下社交活动、对生产者档案记录认知能有效弱化负面信息下消费者风险感知。最后本文提出了基于全程可追溯体系的食品安全风险交流与管理相关启示。

Leveraging core capabilities and environmental dynamism forfood traceability and firm performance in a food supply chain: Amoderated mediation model

食品供应链中企业核心能力和环境动态性对食品可追溯性信息共享与企业绩效关系的影响：可调节的中介模型

SONG Mo-xi, YANG Morgan Xin

本文通过探究食品供应链中可追溯性信息共享与环境动态性通过企业核心能力（运营能力和市场能力）对企业绩效的交互影响的可调节的中介模型，对现有文献中关于食品可追溯性信息共享与企业绩效关系的不确定性结果提供了另一种解释。通过借鉴组织学习理论的间接观点，本文提出食品可追溯性信息共享能够提升食品企业的运营和市场能力，从而有助于企业绩效的提升。本文以216家中国食品制造企业为样本，采用双调研对象的调研设计进行数据收集，采用层次回归和bootstrapping法对假设进行检验。结果表明，食品企业运营和市场能力充分中介了食品可追溯性信息共享与企业绩效的关系。此外，环境动态性正向调节了可追溯性信息共享与核心能力的关系。此外，我们还发现运营和市场能力将环境动态性和可追溯性信息共享的交互作用转化为企业绩效的提升。我们的研究将研究重点从环境动态性对食品可追溯性信息共享与企业绩效关系的调节作用转化为可追溯性信息共享和环境动态性通过核心能力对企业绩效的交互影响，从而进一步细化了可追溯性信息共享与企业绩效的关系。更重要的是，本研究首次证明，当环境动态性处在中高水平时，食品可追溯性信息共享均能增强运营和市场能力，从而有助于企业绩效的提升。

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本文转自公众号“北京食品安全政策与战略研究基地”，原标题“基地白军飞教授与朱晨副教授联合《农业科学学报》共同组织2019年8期“中国食物，营养与健康经济”专题”：

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/GLMPnRPas3Rd8l7v0rAdJQ

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