AJAE 崔潇濛 解伟 | 通过调整生长季节使农业适应气候变化：来自中国玉米的证据【转】

*中文标题和摘要系简单翻译，可能存在部分错误，请以英文为准

————

Xiaomeng Cui, and Wei Xie (2021).  Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. Early View

全文链接（点击“阅读原文”跳转）：

https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12227

摘要：

近期研究表明，气候变化将给农业带来严峻挑战并产生深远影响。尽管一些假设模拟表明，最佳调整生长期可以大大减轻未来气候条件下的单产损失，但在量化农民通过生长季节调整的适应程度方面尚未有因果估计。使用1993-2013年详细的中国作物生长信息微观数据，我们发现播种日期和生长季节长度均对同期温度和降水有显著反应。我们的估计结果表明，对于我们样本中的中位点，生长季节调整中的适应性行为可能导致本世纪末的播种日期提前两到六天，而导致种植季节缩短三到六天。这些引致调整可以避免多达9％的气候变化对作物的损害。但是，我们的实证分析没有找到长期反应或伴生投入调整的明确证据，发展政策以帮助适应性过程具有可能性。

Abstract

Recent studies have shown that climate change will impose severe challenges on agriculture with profound implications. Although some hypothetical simulations have suggested that an optimal re‐arrangement of the growing season can substantially mitigate yield losses under future climate, no causal estimate has been provided on quantifying the extent to which farmers are adapting through growing‐season adjustments. Using a novel microlevel data with detailed crop progress information in China over 1993–2013, we show that both planting dates and growing season lengths significantly respond to contemporaneous temperature and precipitation. Our estimates suggest that, for a median site in our sample, the adaptive behavior in growing season adjustments can lead to a two to six days earlier planting date and another three to six days shorter growing season by the end of this century. These induced adjustments can avoid up to 9% of the crop damages caused by climate change. However, our empirical analysis does not find clear evidence of long‐run response or accompanied input adjustments, suggesting potential for developing policies and tools to further aid the adaptive process.

——END

相关阅读：