Food Policy 马梅琳 等 | 中国的非洲猪瘟：影响、应对和政策含义【转】

*中文标题和摘要系简单翻译，可能存在部分错误，请以英文为准

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摘要：

2018年8月，中国爆发非洲猪瘟，给中国生猪业造成了重大损失。猪肉是中国饮食中的主要肉类，其价格是中国消费者物价指数的重要组成部分。2019年，猪肉供应大幅减少导致猪肉价格大幅上涨，促使政府通过补贴大型养猪场来抑制价格。根据对中国肉类需求的最新估计，我们认为正在进行的政策干预可能不是实现猪肉价格短期下降最有效的方法。鸡肉是猪肉的主要替代品且目前在中国肉类消费中所占份额相对较小，对鸡肉的生产进行补贴，可以以更低的政府成本更快地抑制猪肉价格。我们估算了 2019 年第三季度到 2021 年最后一个季度的 30 个月内多个补贴计划的价格动态并计算了消费者剩余。模拟结果表明，将一些养猪补贴分配给养鸡场可能使消费者、生产者和政府受益。我们在生猪存栏大量损失后扩大替代肉类生产以帮助降低猪肉价格的新提议可能对其他因动物流行病而遭受或可能遭受严重牲畜损失的国家有用。

Abstract

African Swine Fever broke out in China in August 2018 and has caused a substantial loss to China’s hog industry. Pork is the dominant meat in the Chinese diet with its price being a critical component of China’s Consumer Price Index. In 2019, large increases in the pork price caused by the sharp reduction in pork supply incentivized the government to suppress the price by subsidizing large-scale hog farms. With an updated estimation of China’s meat demand, we argue that the ongoing policy interventions may not be the most efficient for achieving short-run reductions in the pork price. Subsidizing the production of chicken, a major substitute for pork and currently accounting for a relatively small share of meat consumption in China, could help suppress the pork price faster and at lower government costs. We estimate price dynamics and compute consumer surplus of multiple subsidy plans over a 30-month window from the third quarter of 2019 to the last quarter of 2021. Simulation outcomes suggest that allocating some subsidies from hog to chicken farms is likely to benefit consumers, producers, and the government. Our novel proposal of expanding production of a substitute meat to help lower the pork price after a large loss of the hog stock may be useful to other countries that suffer or may suffer from severe livestock losses due to animal epidemics.

原文链接（点击“阅读原文”跳转）：

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102065

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撰文编辑：王煜正

审核：龙文进