大英帝国|《全球脑库》：脱欧后退守英伦小岛，该如何生存？

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我与我们的世界，既是一个“奋斗”的世界，也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔，思而不奋则殆。这个世界，你大，它就大；你小，它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章，因为，每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩。

本期导读：曾经的大英帝国，由其领土、自治领、殖民地、托管国以及通过其他方式管理统治的地区组成，被国际社会及历史学界视为世界历史上最大的殖民帝国，其统治面积曾达到约3400万平方公里。

1688年光荣革命推翻了封建统治，并在1689年颁布的《权利法案》中以法律形式对王权进行明确制约，确立了君主立宪制，为英国提供了前所未有的生产力，使其经济、军力、科技、文化迅猛发展，标志着英国的崛起。

到20世纪中期，尤其是第二次世界大战后，随着全球民族主义运动的兴起与英国日渐式微的国力，大英帝国逐渐瓦解，瓦解后的大英帝国，又基本退守回英伦三岛。而当下，随着英国脱欧进程的启动，苏格兰试图脱离英国进行独立的风险又开始猛增。

脱欧进程已经正式开始，大英帝国会否进一步萎缩，全球的目光都在关注。而业已退守回英伦三岛的英国，脱欧后在充满各种竞争的国际社会中该如何生存，是历史抛给大英帝国的又一场严酷考验。

From Great Britain to Little England?

从大英帝国到英伦小岛？

British Prime Minister Theresa May blinked more than once as she prepared to invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon and initiate Britain’s exit from the European Union. According to May, Brexit will transform the United Kingdom into what she calls “Global Britain.” But what lies ahead is really anyone’s guess. The UK has long been shorn of its empire; now it will be shorn of Europe, too.

梅姨声称，脱欧将能让英国成为所谓的“全球英国”。英国早已远离曾经的帝国辉煌，现在也将远离欧洲。

Singapore, Switzerland, and Norway are often mentioned as models for the UK to follow as it pursues its own trade policies outside of the EU. This is ironic (or perhaps fitting), given that all three are small countries that do not share Great Britain’s sense of self-importance in world affairs.

新加坡、瑞士和挪威通常会认为是英国脱欧后在贸易领域需要模仿的榜样，不过，这三个小国都没有英国那种在世界事务中所具有的自我优越感。

The experience of small states is instructive for the UK. From the view of New Zealand or Singapore, it is fanciful to think that concluding new free-trade agreements with large emerging markets such as China and India will come easily for the UK. The gestation period for FTAs is long even under favorable conditions; and today a protectionist cloud hangs over the United States and potentially other countries. Signing a new FTA with the “America First” Trump administration will not be the cakewalk that UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and others have promised.

小国的经验，对脱欧后的英国，极具借鉴意义。

It is telling that the same small economies that know the most about global engagement are consistently pessimistic about Brexit. Economic policymakers from the Nordics and the Netherlands to New Zealand and Singapore understand that regional integration matters, and that Brexit will have large negative effects.

不过，正是这几个小型经济体在全球范围内的参与经验，让英国脱欧更具悲观色彩。

In the coming months, the world’s small, open economies will function as canaries in the coal mine for the global trade system. Small countries on the periphery of the EU, such as Norway and Switzerland, have learned that benefiting from EU integration requires limiting the scope for independent domestic policymaking. Given these countries’ experience, the Brexiteers should rein in their expectations for how much control they can realistically “take back.”

今后，世界范围内的小型、开放型经济体，将会成为让全球贸易体系发挥作用的吹鼓手。

May’s government has made various announcements indicating the types of post-Brexit policy changes it will pursue. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, for example, has talked about a low-tax, light-regulation model. But this model’s success in city-state settings such as Singapore, Hong Kong, or Dubai is no guarantee that it will work for a G20 economy. Meanwhile, May has suggested that the UK will, once again, embrace industrial policy, though it remains unclear what she means by this.

梅姨已发表系列声明，对脱欧后的政策取向进行说明，但到目前为止，各种政策措施依然是混沌不清。

The UK has always had a high degree of autonomy to shape its own economic strategy, but Brexit will probably force policymakers to craft a comprehensive agenda that makes the country’s priorities explicit. As they do, they should learn from successful small economies.

英国历来都高度重视自立，但将来，英国却需要向成功的小型经济体学习。

For starters, small countries invest heavily in knowledge and human capital at all levels, from compulsory, vocational, and university education to lifelong-learning programs. These investments enable more people to take advantage of the opportunities that globalization provides, while also increasing productivity and wages.

小型经济体都会对各层面进行大量知识和人力资本投资。

Second, small countries have growth policies specifically geared toward boosting their competitive strength in the global economy. These measures can take a variety of forms, from investment in high-quality infrastructure and human capital, to sectoral policies that assist certain industries. But all are meant to ensure the country’s position near the productivity frontier, and within key international economic clusters.

小国也都会制定特殊的发展政策，以提升在全球范围内的竞争力。

Third, because small countries are highly exposed to external shocks, they have a range of measures in place to manage economic risks and ensure resilience. These include well-developed social insurance, flexible labor markets, active labor-market policies, and the fiscal space to pursue countercyclical stimulus policies (small economies tend to be fiscally conservative, partly for this reason).

小国也都对外部冲击非常敏感，会采取系列措施来应对各种经济风险，确保经济具有快速恢复能力。

The upcoming Brexit negotiations will pose a generational challenge for the UK. But, beyond handling those talks well, the UK also needs to develop policies that will enable it to navigate an ever more challenging international environment. This will require it to do things very differently than it has in past decades.

即将进行的脱欧系列谈判，将给英国带来一场划时代的挑战。脱欧之后，在国际社会，英国也就需要采取一种与以往不同的行为方式。

In fact, the UK’s survival could depend on it. Brexit, and UK policymakers’ failure to develop a coherent, robust economic strategy has breathed new life into the Scottish independence movement. Many are confident that the small-economy model would work well for an independent Scotland. To be sure, Scotland has significant economic exposures that it needs to address, and it might need the security of a larger economic unit. But it is not obvious that the UK provides such security, especially now that it is on a path to leave the EU’s single market and customs union.

英国在国际社会的生存，也需要靠这一点。

Independence would allow Scotland to develop policies that are more in line with other successful small economies – not least by retaining EU membership. As Scotland confronts the strategic challenges of Brexit, it will also have an opportunity to develop policies that are better suited to it.

苏格兰独立的话，也会向其他成功的小型经济体学习，采取相应类型的政策措施。

Britain chose to leave the EU because it had an outsized opinion of itself. But it will soon have to follow a small-country model, like that of Switzerland or Norway. Forty years after leaving New Zealand in the lurch to join the European Economic Community, the UK might soon have less access to the European market than New Zealand does. Its journey from Great Britain to Little England may well be complete.

英国之所以选择离开欧盟，主要是因为，英国太“大看”自己了。大英帝国退变为英伦小岛的历史进程，注定不会转向变更。

Contributors:

作者简介：

Michael O’Sullivan: Chief Investment Officer in the International Wealth Management Division at Credit Suisse.（瑞信国际财富管理部首席投资官）

David Skilling: Director of Landfall Strategy, a Singapore-based economic advisory firm.（新加坡经济咨询公司Landfall Strategy董事）

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注：

1：本文为原创，若发现不错，欢迎转发共享。

2：英文转自 Project Syndicate，该网站主要发布全球各领域大咖文章，故称之“全球脑库”，非商业用途。

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