国内大市场优势推动了中国制造业出口价值攀升吗？

《财经研究》 2020年46卷第10期 页码：4 - 18  online：2020年9月28日

国内大市场优势推动了中国制造业出口价值攀升吗？

Does the Advantage of Large Domestic Markets Promote the Export Value of China’s Manufacturing Industry?

作者（中）：韩峰1, 2 *, 庄宗武1, 李丹3

作者（英）：Han Feng1, 2 *, Zhuang Zongwu1, Li Dan3

作者单位：1.南京审计大学 经济学院，江苏 南京 211815 2.中国社会科学院 城市发展与环境研究所，北京 100028 3.湖南大学 经济与贸易学院，湖南 长沙 410079

摘要：中国经济正处于转型升级和高质量发展的关键时期，如何通过释放市场需求红利将国内大市场优势转变为制造业出口竞争优势成为政府和学界关注的热点问题。文章利用城市层面的市场潜力指标反映城市拥有的国内市场优势，利用中国工业企业数据和海关贸易数据测算得到企业出口国内附加值率，以此反映制造业出口价值的增值能力，进而探讨了国内大市场优势对制造业出口价值攀升的影响。结果显示，与国际市场潜力相比，国内市场潜力更有助于提升制造业出口国内附加值率，因而中国制造业在推进出口价值攀升中具有明显的国内市场优势。进一步的作用机制分析表明，国内中间品种类、中间品效率与企业边际成本在国内大市场优势影响企业出口国内附加值率过程中均发挥着中介效应的作用。进一步考虑国内外市场潜力交互效应及政府干预作用后的结果表明，国内市场潜力与国际市场潜力在制造业出口国内附加值率的提升过程中具有明显的协同效应，但地方政府的过度干预却弱化了国内大市场优势的充分发挥。文章的研究结论对于中国充分发挥国内大市场优势、提升制造业出口国内附加值，进而促进制造业出口价值攀升和价值链地位提升具有重要的现实意义。

关键词：国内市场潜力; 国际市场潜力; 出口国内附加值; 国内中间品; 政府干预

Summary: The vocabulary of “demand dividend” is commonly seen in various news media reports, but the literature on the empirical analysis of “demand dividend” in the development of China’s manufacturing industry is still rare, and there is little literature on the demand dividend of China’s manufacturing export trade activities from the perspective of the advantage of large domestic markets. As the relative importance of traditional factor inputs in China’s manufacturing industry’s participation in international trade continues to decline, the advantage of large domestic markets will be transformed into a manufacturing export competitive advantage by releasing the demand dividend, which may be an important path for China to promote manufacturing export value during the period of transformation and upgrading and high-quality development.In this paper, the city-level market potential indicator is used to reflect the domestic market advantage possessed by the city, and the export DVAR of enterprises calculated by the data of Chinese industrial enterprises and customs trade is used to reflect the value-added capacity of manufacturing export, and then the impact of the advantage of large domestic markets on the rising export value of manufacturing industry is discussed. The results show that: Compared with international market potential, domestic market potential is more conducive to increasing the DVAR of manufacturing exports. Therefore, China’s manufacturing industry has a clear domestic market advantage in promoting the rise in export value. Domestic intermediate product categories, intermediate product efficiency, and corporate marginal cost all play an intermediary role in the process of the advantage of large domestic markets promoting the DVAR of manufacturing exports. Domestic market potential and international market potential have obvious synergies in the process of increasing the DVAR of manufacturing exports, but the excessive intervention by local governments weakens the full play of the advantage of large domestic markets.The marginal contribution of this paper may exist in the following aspects: Firstly, it provides new theoretical support for cultivating and exploring market potential advantages in various regions, thus promoting the manufacturing industry to climb the high value-added link of the value chain. Secondly, it uses more reasonable accounting methods to complete the key indicators which are missing in the Chinese industrial enterprise database during the sample period. Thirdly, it examines the mediation effect of indicators, such as the efficiency of domestic intermediate products and the variety of intermediate products, in the process of market potential affecting the increase of the DVAR of manufacturing exports. Fourthly, it not only further explores the interaction mechanism between the two different market potentials, but also takes the role of government intervention into consideration, and then explores the mechanism and impact of domestic and international market potentials on the DVAR of manufacturing exports under government intervention.

Key words: domestic market potential; international market potential; export domestic value-added; domestic intermediate goods; government intervention

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20200616.201

收稿日期：2020-2-14

基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目（71603124）；中国博士后科学基金资助项目（2019M650042）；江苏省自然科学基金项目（BK20161054）；江苏省第五期“333工程”培养资金资助项目；江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目（SJKY19_1545）

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