“走出去”与“引进来”——“一带一路”倡议与外商直接投资的区位调整
《财经研究》 2022年48卷第3期 页码：19 - 32 online：2022年3月2日
“走出去”与“引进来”——“一带一路”倡议与外商直接投资的区位调整
“Going Global” and “Bringing In”: The BRI and the Location Adjustment of FDI
作者（中）：赵红军1, 高恒宇1, 黄丹煌2
作者（英）：Zhao Hongjun1, Gao Hengyu1, Huang Danhuang2
作者单位：1.上海师范大学 商学院, 上海 200234 2.上海交通大学医学院 附属第九人民医院, 上海 200011
摘要：“一带一路”倡议从其经济学本质来看，是构建“走出去”和“引进来”良性互动新发展格局的重要“先手棋”，它在重塑世界经济格局的同时，也可能改变国内的经济版图。文章基于2003—2018年281个地级市数据的实证分析表明，“一带一路”倡议在传递“走出去”信号的同时，却对全国城市层面的“引进来”产生了一定的消极影响。从影响机制来看，“一带一路”倡议的实施，让节点城市外向型发展的注意力部分地转移到海外投资上，表现为普遍增加了本地用于“走出去”的贷款水平，并在一定程度上减少了地方政府在城市内部的固定资产投资，这使得节点城市对外商直接投资的吸引力出现一定程度的下降。但从影响的异质性来看，这却在客观上促进了我国外商直接投资区位的空间调整，使得东部地区对外商直接投资的吸引力下降，却让中西部城市成了吸引外商直接投资的新阵地。这意味着，今后可充分发挥“一带一路”倡议促进我国外商投资布局调整的积极一面，同时将它与东、中、西部城市发展阶段结合起来，实现“走出去”与“引进来”良性互动。
关键词：“一带一路”倡议; 外商直接投资; 双重差分法
Summary: In order to deal with the severe challenges brought about by changes in the foreign environment, China proposes to accelerate the construction of the new development pattern in which the domestic cycle is the mainstay and the domestic and international dual cycles promote each other. Under this background, the BRI proposed in 2013 by China can economically be regarded as an important test to build the dual-cycle development pattern. However, there are few literatures specifically analyzing the relationship between the BRI and China’s FDI and the economic mechanism behind it. In order to solve this problem, this paper uses the panel data of China’s prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2018 to test it.The mechanism behind it shows that: Firstly, if domestic enterprises want to “go global” to invest, they have to face the immature financial markets of countries and regions along the “Belt and Road”. Therefore, they must inevitably increase their loan levels in domestic financial institutions. Secondly, because of the limited resources, local governments need to introduce funds and policy preferential measures to encourage domestic-funded enterprises to go global, which will inevitably reduce the fixed asset investment used for domestic construction objectively. The heterogeneity test shows that the BRI has a positive impact on the optimization and adjustment of the location of China’s FDI. On the one hand, it has promoted the development of “coastalization” in the central and western areas. On the other hand, it has brought a significant negative impact on the capability of southeastern areas to attract FDI.The main contributions of this paper can be summarized in the following aspects: Firstly, it analyzes the relationship between the BRI and FDI based on the data of prefecture-level cities. Secondly, it enriches the research on the mechanism of the relationship between the BRI and FDI by decreasing the proportion of urban fixed asset investment or increasing the proportion of urban loans in domestic institutions. Thirdly, the analysis of regional heterogeneity provides empirical evidence that the BRI promotes the location adjustment of FDI. Finally, it provides targeted policy suggestions on how to promote the BRI and the coordinated development of “bringing in” and “going global”, and how cities in different regions can participate in the BRI to promote the high-quality development of economy.
Key words: BRI; FDI; DID
DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20211114.201
收稿日期：2021-3-1
基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目（18BJL003）
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