乌鸟私情，愿乞终养：父辈健康与子女劳动供给

《财经研究》 2022年48卷第5期 页码：64 - 79  online：2022年5月9日

乌鸟私情，愿乞终养：父辈健康与子女劳动供给

Upbringing and Support: Parental Health and Children’s Labor Supply

作者（中）：张永峰, 路瑶

作者（英）：Zhang Yongfeng, Lu Yao

作者单位：1.南京大学 经济学院, 江苏 南京 210093

摘要：家庭中普遍存在成年子女照料老龄父辈健康的现象，这在饱受儒家文化熏陶的中国表现得尤为明显。文章利用2015年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据研究发现：父辈隐性健康变化并未引致子女退出劳动力市场，而父辈显性健康变化对子女劳动供给存在显著的挤出效应。总体来看，父辈健康变化对农村子女、女性子女、分开居住的子女和代际支持更高的子女劳动供给的挤出效应更加显著。同时，父辈隐性健康变化显著增加了雇佣护理人员的可能性。在父辈健康照料中，在追求家庭效用最大化约束条件下，护理人员部分替代子女成为相对理性的选择。进一步研究发现，医疗保险、子女数量的增加和医疗条件的改善有助于平滑父辈健康变化对子女劳动供给的冲击，缓解父辈健康变化对子女劳动供给的挤出效应，尤其是在家庭子女数量超过2时，这一缓解作用更加显著。文章的研究验证了“抚养—赡养”这种代际互惠模式在中国的存在性，因此需要警惕老龄化加深和人口红利缩减双重背景下父辈隐性健康变化和显性健康变化转换对中国劳动力市场的冲击。

关键词：父辈健康; 子女劳动供给; 代际互惠; 挤出效应

Summary: It is common for adult children to take care of elderly parents in the family. This phenomenon is particularly obvious in China, which has been influenced by Confucian culture for a long time. According to the date of CGSS in 2017, 95.66% of children agree that adult children have the obligation to take care of elderly parents. The degree of aging in China is increasing with the rapid development of economy. According to the data of the “sixth Census” in 2010, the degree of aging in China is 13.26%; by 2020, the degree has risen to 18.70%. From the perspective of life cycle, the healthy human capital stock of the elderly is lower and is more threatened by the impact of health risks. The support obligation expressly stipulated in the legal text and the conventional concept of filial piety in the informal system promote parental health change to be further transmitted to the labor supply decision-making of children, forming a crowding-out effect on the labor supply of children. According to the data of the International Labor Organization, China’s labor participation rate fell from 77.22% in 2000 to 67.99% in 2019, with an overall decline of 11.95%. There is not only the transformation of labor market structure caused by the deepening of aging, but also the impact of the health change of elderly parents on the labor supply of adult children. Effective and stable labor supply has always been the key to accelerating the construction of a new development pattern of dual circulation and mutual promotion at home and abroad. Therefore, clarifying the real relationship between parental health and children’s labor supply is very important to promote high-quality economic development under the dual background of deepening aging and shrinking demographic dividend. Using the data of CHARLS in 2015, we find that parental implicit health change fails to cause their children to withdraw from the labor market. Parental explicit health change has a significant negative impact on children’s labor supply decision-making. Overall, the crowding-out effect of parental health change on rural children, female children, children living separately and children with higher intergenerational support is more significant. At the same time, parental implicit health change significantly increases the possibility of employing nurses. In parental health care, nurses partially replace children as a relatively rational choice under the constraints of pursuing the maximization of family utility. Further research finds that medical insurance, the increase in the number of children and the improvement of medical conditions help to smooth the impact of parental health change on children’s labor supply, and dilute the crowding-out effect of parental health change on children’s labor supply, especially when the number of children in the family exceeds 2. This paper verifies that the intergenerational reciprocity model of “Upbringing – Support” still exists in China, but we need to be vigilant against the impact of the transformation of parental implicit health change and explicit health change on China’s labor market under the background of aging.

Key words: parental health; children’s labor supply; intergenerational reciprocity; crowding-out effect

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20220216.302

收稿日期：2021-8-17

基金项目：国家社科基金一般项目（17BJL081）

全文：点击下方“阅读原文”查看全文