网络媒体报道能否刺破私有信息壁障？——基于分析师与上市公司高管校友关系视角的实证考察

Can Online Media Pierce the Barrier of Private Information? An Empirical Investigation Based on the Alumni Relationship between Analysts and Executives of Listed Companies

《财经研究》2023年49卷第12期 页码：149-165 online：2023年12月3日

作者

中：杨玉龙1 , 程婧妍1 , 尤谱谱1 , 孙淑伟2

英：Yang Yulong1, Cheng Jingyan1, You Pupu1, Sun Shuwei2

作者单位：1. 浙江工商大学 会计学院，浙江 杭州 310018; 2. 上海对外经贸大学 会计学院，上海 201620

摘要及关键词

摘要：文章由分析师与上市公司高管基于校友关系（简称“分析师−高管校友关系”）而进行的私有信息交易切入，考察了网络媒体报道能否刺破私有信息壁障、打破“有限效果理论”对大众传媒传播效果的诅咒。研究发现，分析师−高管校友关系可以给公司带来好处——关联公司收到的分析师盈利预测更加乐观，也可以给分析师带来好处——关联分析师的报告修正速度更快，后续职业发展前景更好；但是关联分析师的预测偏差会更大，若严格按照关联分析师的推荐操作持仓，则相对于非关联荐股会亏损8.52%。这表明分析师与上市公司高管基于校友关系而进行的私有信息交易确实存在。而网络媒体报道能够对其产生有效制约，具体表现为：降低关联分析师盈利预测的乐观性，增加关联分析师的修正间隔，削弱关联分析师的职业发展前景，同时减少关联分析师的预测偏差和投资者因关联荐股而产生的投资损失（减损约6.13%）。机制分析表明，网络媒体通过信息渠道、治理渠道和情绪渠道的共同作用，约束了私有信息交易。此外，这种约束作用在公司利益相关方更重视社会关注和私有信息交易动机更强的样本中更加显著。文章探讨了“有限效果理论”在新媒体时代的局限性，为公开信息渠道如何战胜私有信息渠道以促进信息公平提供了有益的启示。

关键词：网络媒体报道；社会关系网络；私有信息交易；有限效果理论

Summary: Contrary to the general cognition, mass media channels are usually unable to defeat private information channels in the communication effect, which is the famous “limited effects theory” in journalism and communication. From the perspective of the private information transaction between analysts and executives of listed companies based on the alumni relationship, this paper aims to explore whether the emerging online media can break the curse of “limited effects”. This paper finds that: The alumni relationship between analysts and executives of listed companies can bring benefits to the company — analysts’ profit forecast received by affiliated companies is more optimistic; it can also bring benefits to analysts — the report correction speed of affiliated analysts is faster, and future career development prospects are better. However, the forecast deviation of affiliated analysts will be even greater. If ordinary investors strictly follow the recommendations of affiliated analysts to hold positions, they will lose 8.52% compared with unaffiliated recommended shares. The above results show that the private information transaction between analysts and executives of listed companies based on the alumni relationship does exist. However, online media can restrain this kind of private information transaction. Specifically, online media can reduce the optimistic profit forecast received by affiliated companies, increase the correction interval of affiliated analysts, weaken the career development prospects of affiliated analysts, and also reduce the forecast deviation of affiliated analysts and the investment loss of ordinary investors due to affiliated recommended shares (about 6.13% loss). The mechanism analysis shows that online media restricts the private information transaction through the joint effect of information channels, governance channels, and emotional channels. The grouping test shows that this inhibitory effect is more obvious in the four audit groups, the state-owned enterprise group, and the profit sample group. This paper discusses the limitations of “limited effects theory” in the new media era, and provides beneficial enlightenment for public information channels to beat private information channels to promote information fairness.

Key words:online media; social networks; private information transaction; limited effects theory

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20230414.101

收稿日期：2023-01-19

基金项目：国家自然科学基金面上项目（72172141）；国家自然科学基金青年项目（71702165，72102212）；国家社会科学基金一般项目（20BGL089）

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