各位周日好，截至北京时间12月18日，乌克兰战争进入298天。
近日，乌克兰传出消息称或将与俄罗斯进行谈判，就目前的形势来看，乌克兰和俄罗斯没有任何和谈的可能性。
虽然乌克兰已经进入寒冬，但是俄罗斯对乌克兰民用设施的袭击依然在继续。在目前的情况下，这或将成为俄罗斯拖缓战争节奏的手段。
The Kremlin is likely attempting to increase perceptions of Putin’s competence and of that of the Russian Ministry of Defense by publicizing Putin’s meeting with the joint headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces and Putin’s appearances at non-military events.
俄罗斯可能试图通过宣传普京与俄罗斯武装部队联合司令部的会晤以及普京在非军事活动中的露面，来提高人们对普京和俄罗斯国防部能力的认识。A New York Times investigation of Russian military documents from early in the war supports ISW’s longstanding assessments about how flawed Russian planning assumptions and campaign design decisions plagued Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from its onset.《纽约时报》对战争初期俄罗斯军事文件的一项调查支持了战争研究所长期以来的评估，即俄罗斯有缺陷的规划假设和战役设计决策从一开始就困扰着俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵。Ongoing Russian offensive operations around Bakhmut are further driving a wedge between forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group troops.俄罗斯在巴赫穆特周围持续的进攻行动进一步加剧了顿涅茨克人民共和国和叶夫根尼·普里戈津的瓦格纳集团部队之间的分歧。The US Central Intelligence Agency assesses that the Kremlin is not serious about negotiations with Ukraine, agreeing with a longstanding ISW assessment.美国中央情报局（US Central Intelligence Agency）评估称，俄罗斯对与乌克兰的谈判并不认真，同意战争研究所的长期评估。
Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks near Svatove and Kreminna and continue to strike Russian rear areas.乌克兰部队在斯瓦托夫（又译为斯瓦托韦）——克里米纳（Kreminna）附近进行反击，并继续袭击俄罗斯后方地区。Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City.俄罗斯部队继续在巴克穆特和阿夫迪伊夫卡顿涅茨克市附近进行进攻行动。Ukrainian officials warned that Russian forces may be attempting to draw Ukrainian forces into a trap on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.乌克兰官员警告称，俄罗斯军队可能试图将乌克兰军队拉入第聂伯罗河东岸（左岸）的陷阱。Russia may be conducting an information operation falsely connecting ongoing negotiations on the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to a prospective future Ukrainian counteroffensive in Zaporizhia Oblast.俄罗斯可能正在进行一项情报行动，错误地将正在进行的扎波罗热核电站非军事化谈判与乌克兰未来在扎波罗热州的反攻联系起来。