【聚焦】英国高官为一篇产生深刻国际影响的中国演讲打call，不容错过（中英双语）

罗思义（John Ross）系英国伦敦前经济与商业政策署署长、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员，本文中文版刊于1月17日《人民日报》，英文版发表于1月15日人民日报客户端。

去年1月17日，习近平主席在世界经济论坛2017年年会开幕式上发表主旨演讲，引发国际社会热烈讨论。西方专家学者认为，“习近平在达沃斯的演讲获得了全面成功”；美国《新闻周刊》杂志在总结该演讲的影响力时指出，中国现在被认为是“世界经济稳定的关键”。

在过去的一年里，习近平主席的演讲在引导国际舆论正确看待经济全球化方面发挥了巨大影响力，这种影响力还在不断扩大。

为什么此次演讲会产生如此深刻的国际影响？

首先，最重要的是演讲内容。习近平主席达沃斯演讲正印证了中国的一句名言“实践出真知”。习近平主席指出，“经济全球化是社会生产力发展的客观要求和科技进步的必然结果”。无数实例和研究都表明，一个经济体的开放和国际化程度与其发展的速度有正向相关性。二战以后，不断发展的经济全球化在保持世界经济稳定性以及经济增长上起到了决定性的作用。这与1929至1939年全球经济破碎化，由此引发了现代史上最严重的一次经济危机形成了鲜明对比。

基于经济发展要依靠经济全球化这一论断，保持一个国际化、开放的经济至关重要，这既有利于各国政府，也有利于全世界人民。经济全球化为世界上绝大多数人带来了巨大红利，许多国家都在经济全球化中受益良多。作为红利的受益者之一，中国改革开放以来人民生活水平的提升速度举世瞩目，过去几十年全球75%的脱贫人口都来自中国。同样，置身于经济全球化大潮中，一些非洲国家收获了每年高达6%到9%的增长率，这些都强有力地证明了相关的经济理论。

习近平主席在达沃斯的演讲明确地阐述了经济全球化不仅符合中国自身利益，也符合世界各国的共同利益。这些共同利益，组成了国际合作最坚实的基础，因此该演讲被广泛地认为体现了“全球稳定性”。

其次，演讲的时间节点非常关键。尽管美国在二战后的大部分时间里都支持经济全球化，但令人遗憾的是，最近一段时间，保护主义的声音在美国逐渐占据了主流。很多国家无法确定美国是否还会继续坚守其对经济全球化的承诺。习近平主席在达沃斯的演讲明确了中国将继续坚定不移地坚持对外开放，建设开放型世界经济，作为有着庞大体量和广泛影响力的经济体，中国向世界作出了推动经济全球化、坚持互利共赢的承诺。世界大多数国家都十分了解经济全球化对于发展的重要意义，因此对习近平主席的演讲内容深有同感。

最后，这篇演讲有着卓越的技巧，引发听众的共鸣。习近平主席在演讲中引经据典，既有出自《礼记》等中国古代经典的名言，也有英国著名文学家狄更斯的名言。演讲语言平实，易于理解，十分贴近西方听众的语言体系。在旁征博引之间，从理论的高度深入阐释了开放型经济的优越性。

亚当·斯密在其著作《国富论》中，第一句话就指出：“劳动生产力最大的进步……看来都是分工的结果。”随着现代经济的发展，劳动分工有一个必须要考虑的点，那就是国际化。妄图只依靠自给自足的经济体必将失败。

习近平主席在达沃斯的演讲中探讨的都是当今世界面临的根本性问题，其影响力和效果将经久不衰。

附：英文原文

One year on, impact of Xi's agenda-setting Davos speech still felt   

 By John Ross 

Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech to the Davos World Economic Forum one year ago, on January 17, 2017, decisively shaped international discussion - the US magazine Newsweek summarized its impact as being that China was now seen as:"the linchpin of global economic stability."Ian Bremmer, head of the Eurasia Group, the most influential Western"risk analysis"company, noted :"Davos reaction to Xi speech: Success on all counts."

This impact has increased. Analyzing the 19th CPC Congress the Financial Times summarized:"Mr Xi has clearly had a very good year, beginning with his January address to the World Economic Forum in Davos."The announcement President Trump will speak at Davos this year in large part reflects the impact of President Xi's speech last year.

Given this speech's great influence in shaping international discussion it is important to understand why it made such a deep international impact.

The first, most important, reason was naturally its content – an unequivocal explanation of the fundamental concept of China's policy of a"shared future for humanity"and its conclusion that China's foreign policy seeks "win-win"solutions between countries and rejects international relations as a "zero sum game".

The speech noted how this flows directly from globalization’s nature: “Economic globalization is a result of growing social productivity, and a natural outcome of scientific and technological progress.”

The Chinese dictum "seek truth from facts" confirms this. Numerous factual studies demonstrate the positive correlation of an economy's international openness and its development speed. Growing globalization was decisive during the global international economic stability and growth after World War II – in contrast 1929-39's global economic fragmentation created the greatest crisis in modern history.

Given economic progress's dependence on globalization, maintaining an internationally open economy is therefore vital not only for governments but for the world's people. Globalization has brought immense benefits to the majority of the world's people, strongly confirming economic theory. Certainly, China decisively took advantage of globalization's benefits – achieving since 1978 the world's most rapid rise in living standards, while 75 percent of those in the world lifted out of poverty were in China.

But other countries also strongly benefitted. India has now consciously learnt from China's economic model of opening up and African countries basing themselves on globalization have achieved growth rates of 6-9 percent a year.

President Xi's Davos speech therefore clearly articulated how globalization simultaneously corresponded to China's national self-interest but also to the national self-interest of other countries. That mutual self-interest is the firmest of foundations for cooperation is why the speech was widely characterized as embodying "global stability".

The second reason for the speech's great international impact was timing. For most of the post-World War II period the US supported globalization – playing a key role in agreements culminating in the creation of the World Trade Organization. But, regrettably, recently protectionist voices have become more vocal in the US. It is to be hoped protectionist words are not turned into actions but many countries believe there cannot be 100 percent certainty that the US retains a commitment to globalization.

Because Xi's Davos speech made clear China remains unequivocally committed to an open international economy, China emerged as the largest economy committed to globalization and "win-win" development. The great majority of other countries understood the importance of globalization for themselves and therefore agreed strongly with Xi's statements.

Finally, the speech was extremely skillfully presented. Naturally, as China's president, Xi Jinping made extensive reference to classical Chinese authors such as the Book of Rites. But the speech was equally understandable in a Western idiom, quoting Dickens and strikingly explaining the theoretical underpinnings of economic openness's advantages.

The first sentence of the founding work of modern Western economics, Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations, is, "The greatest improvement in the productive powers of labor … have been the effect of the division of labor." But division of labor in a modern economy has reached a point where it is necessarily international – attempts to create self-contained economies therefore necessarily fail.

Given how fundamental the issues Xi Jinping's Davos speech dealt with are to the present world its already great impact will continue to increase.

John Ross is a senior fellow at Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China. He is also the former director of Economic and Business Policy for the Mayor of London. 

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中国人民大学全球治理研究中心(Global Governance Research Center，RUC)成立于2017年3月9日，是北京巨丰金控科技有限公司董事长马琳女士向中国人民大学捐赠并由中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）负责运营管理的教育基金项目。中国人民大学全球治理研究中心由原外交部副部长、人大重阳高级研究员何亚非领衔，前中国银行副行长、国际商会执行董事、人大重阳高级研究员张燕玲担任学术委员会主任，旨在构建高层次、高水准的全球治理思想交流平台，并向社会发布高质量的全球治理研究报告，努力践行咨政、启民、伐谋、孕才的智库使命。

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