【视点】美国智库学者也要"上山下乡"做研究，“中国通”甘思德如是说（中英双语）
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3月6日下午，人大重阳系列讲座第101场："甘思德：论中美合作基础"在中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成功举行。美国国际战略研究中心（CSIS）费和中国研究项目副主任、中国商业与政治经济项目主任甘思德（Scott Kennedy）教授担任主讲人，与现场学者、听众和媒体就中美合作关系及未来走向进行了深入交流和探讨。人大重阳作为教育部指定的中美人文交流研究基地，本次讲座也得到了来自教育部国际司相关领导的支持。讲座由人大重阳院务委员兼学术合作部主任杨清清主持。
讲座伊始，人大重阳执行院长、全球治理研究中心执行理事王文致辞并对甘思德教授的到来表示热烈欢迎。他指出，资深"中国通"甘思德教授是美国中生代中最优秀学者之一，长期致力于研究中国国内和国际经济政策。作为智库学者间的交流，无论当前对于中美关系是乐观还是悲观的看法，我们都希望能通过对话和交流进行更为深入的讨论，应该要用客观、长远的眼光来看待中美合作的未来，并希望通过双方共同努力，促进中美两国共同发展、互利共赢。
甘思德教授发表主旨演讲
接下来，甘思德教授用流利的中文发表主旨演讲。首先，针对目前的中美关系困局，他认为中美两国合作的基础不是经贸关系，而是在美国军事保护下的国际自由多边秩序。今年是中国改革开放40周年，明年是中美建交40周年。在此期间，中国通过经济体制改革、市场化发展，经济上取得了举世瞩目的成就。与此同时，中国希望更多地参与全球国际规则的制定，从而对美国主导下建立的国际多边自由秩序渐渐失去兴趣。在全球治理体系中，美国主导的是"自由"多边秩序，而中国更多的是希望建立"开放"的多边秩序。他还提到，未来一段时间，中美贸易关系将趋向紧张，若美国采取对中国的产品提高关税、限制中国向美国投资、加强对高科技产品的管制等等的措施，中国也会采取相应的对策，这样的情况是双方都不希望看到的。
甘思德教授也对目前美国的政治环境表示担忧。美国政府换届之后，特朗普政府的思想方法、意识形态、管理方法对美国的国际政策、外交立场、外交政策有一定的影响。新的政治经济局势意味着中美合作的基础在一定程度上发生了改变。他表示，不能认为中国的发展机遇来自于美国自身发展存在问题，反之，应该更多的看到好的一面，比如中美建交给双方发展带来了深刻的影响和发展机遇。中美两国要建立在尊重彼此核心利益的基础上，才能加强合作，塑造合作共赢的局面。
最后，甘思德教授倡议中美两国的智库学者都要更多地加深对双方国家的了解，通过"上山下乡"式的实地调研分析，不仅了解精英层，也要清楚老百姓的需求，才能更加全面客观地认识两国国情，为加强未来中美合作的基础共同努力。
讲座现场
在嘉宾点评与研讨环节，各位与会研究人员畅抒己见，与甘思德教授展开深入互动。人大重阳高级研究员、全球治理研究中心副主任张胜军认为，关于中美关系中谁是施动者，并不能一概而论，因变量和自变量都在发生变化。但中国没有变，也没有证据证明中国的改革是朝着反市场、反自由主义秩序的方向迈进的，相反中国的学习曲线一直是上扬的，中美之间的民意基础是非常广泛和深厚的。同时，中国并不是在改变国际规则，而是希望推进国际规则更加良性发展。中美关系眼前的波折和担忧是暂时的，未来一定会愈加走向理性。人大重阳高级研究员周戎认为中国改革开放是与中美合作同步进行的，双方都是受益的。中国是美国最值得帮助的国家，政策收紧和关系紧张不利于双方的共同利益，中美合作的利益空间是巨大的。人大重阳国际研究部主任陈晓晨认为双方学者应加强互动，不仅局限于华盛顿精英圈，更应加强与美国中西部、商会或者其他第三方探讨中美经贸合作，尤其是"一带一路"领域，广阔天地将大有作为。
本场讲座现场座无虚席，与会听众与甘思德先生进行了深入的互动，甘思德先生就现场提问也一一予以回应，讲座在热烈的气氛中落下帷幕。
甘思德教授的观点属于个人学术意见，不代表人大重阳观点。
On the afternoon of March 6th, the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China (RDCY) successfully held its 101st seminar, entitled: “Scott Kennedy: The Crumbling Foundations for US-China Cooperation.” Deputy Director of the Freeman Chair in China Studies and director of the Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy at CSIS, keynote speaker Professor Scott Kennedy engaged in profound and thought-provoking discussions with attending scholars, audience and the media about Sino-American cooperation and future trends. As a base for the research of Sino-American cultural exchange designated by the Ministry of Education, leaders from the Department of international cooperation and exchange of the Ministry of Education also attend the lecture. Ms Yang Qingqing, member of the Council and Director of Research Cooperation Department at RDCY, acted as moderator.
As the lecture began, RDCY Executive Director Wang Wen extended a warm welcome to Professor Kennedy, for him a seasoned ‘China hand’ and one of the most preeminent scholars of the middle generation, having long engaged in studying China’s domestic and foreign economic policy. Exchanges between think-tank scholars should be insulted from subjective perceptions about the current state of Sino-American relationships, whether optimistic or pessimistic. Rather, we should engage in deeper discussion through dialogue and exchange, look to the future of bilateral relations between the two countries through an objective and long-term lens, and endeavor to promote common and mutually-beneficial growth.
Next, Professor Kennedy proceeded to deliver his speech in fluent Chinese. As regards the current quandary in which Sino-American cooperation finds itself, he noted that it is based less on economic and trade considerations, but the free-trade multilateral order guaranteed by US military might. 2018 marks the 40th anniversary of ‘Reform and Opening Up’, and 2019 is a similar milestone in the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries. During this period, China’s economic achievements, made possible by reforming the economic system and market development, gained world-wide recognition. At the same time, China sought a more active part in the making of international rules, which explains its gradual loss of interest in the free-trade multilateral order brokered by the US. In the global governance system, the US’ vision of a ‘free’ multilateral order contrasts with China’s advocacy of an ‘open’ multilateral order. Moreover, he mentioned that Sino-American trade relations are likely to continue being tense in the future. Should the US government raise tariffs on imported Chinese goods, restrict Chinese investment and strengthen control over high-tech products, China will also take corresponding measures. This is a situation which no one wants to see.
Professor Kennedy also expressed concern at the current US political environment. After the change in government, the Trump administration’s thinking, ideology, and managerial method have keenly impacted upon the US’ foreign and international policy, as well as its diplomatic stance. The new politico-economic paradigm means that the basis for Sino-American cooperation has changed, at least to an extent.
Finally, Professor Kennedy proposed that Sino-American think-tank scholars should deepen their understanding of each other’s country by adopting the ‘up into the mountains and down into the countryside’ model of field research. In this way, the voices of the common people, as well as that of the elite, can be heard. Doing so enables a more comprehensive and objective understanding of the state of the nation of both China and the US, and a more solid foundation for future cooperation is built upon common effort.
During guest commentaries and discussions, participating research personnel were most candid in sharing their ideas and engaging in critical discussion with Professor Kennedy. Zhang Shengjun, Senior Fellow of RDCY and Deputy Director of the Global Governance Research Centre remarked that no generalizations can be made regarding the principal actor in China-US relations, as both the dependent and independent variables are in flux. What has not changed is China, with a dearth of evidence supporting allegations that its reforms are anti-market and anti-free trade. On the contrary, China’s learning curve has always been positive, and there broad, deep understands between the public opinion in the two countries. Nor can it be said that China is seeking to work a subversion of international rules, when it is in fact hoping to see more positive development therein. For RDCY Senior Fellow Zhou Rong, China’s ‘Reform and Opening Up’ was contemporaneous with Sino-American cooperation, and this has been to the benefit of both parties. China is the country most worthy of US aid, with policy tightening and tensions not conducive their common interests, especially given the huge space for cooperation between the two. Chen Xiaochen, Director of the International Research Department of RDCY believes that scholars from both sides should strengthen interaction, rather than confining themselves to the political elite in Washington. Moreover, it will also be necessary to strengthen discussions with the US Mid-West, chambers of commerce and other interested third-parties on Sino-American economic and trade cooperation, especially in the field of the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’.
The seminar was packed to the rafters, with the audience making the most of the opportunity to engage in an in-depth discussion with Professor Kennedy, who patiently answered every question asked. The seminar ended on a positive note.
Professor Scott Kennedy’s Opinions belong to his individual academic opinions and do not represent the views of RDCY.
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中国人民大学全球治理研究中心(Global Governance Research Center，RUC)成立于2017年3月9日，是北京巨丰金控科技有限公司董事长马琳女士向中国人民大学捐赠并由中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）负责运营管理的教育基金项目。中国人民大学全球治理研究中心由原外交部副部长、人大重阳高级研究员何亚非领衔，前中国银行副行长、国际商会执行董事、人大重阳高级研究员张燕玲担任学术委员会主任，旨在构建高层次、高水准的全球治理思想交流平台，并向社会发布高质量的全球治理研究报告，努力践行咨政、启民、伐谋、孕才的智库使命。
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