【视界】龙兴春：特朗普逆全球化比停普惠待遇更伤印度（中英双语）

全文约2100字，读完约需3分钟。

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作者龙兴春系中国人民大学重阳金融研究院客座研究员，本文的英文版刊于3月12日《Global Times》。

3月5日，美国总统特朗普在给国会的信中称，他有意终止印度和土耳其的贸易普惠制待遇（GSP）。特朗普表示可能在60天后实施，除非这期间双方达成新的贸易协定。如果获得国会批准，印度向美国出口的价值56亿美元商品的零关税待遇将被取消。这是去年3月美国宣布对进口钢铁和铝产品分别征收25%和10%的关税后，特朗普政府对印度又一次贸易报复行动。 

特朗普逼印度开放市场的谈判策略。有分析认为，特朗普这个行动的主要原因，是印度政府前不久实施新的电子交易管制条例，限制美国电商亚马逊和印度电商Flipkart（美国沃尔玛公司持有约80%股份）的营运。印度还迫使MasterCard和Visa等环球信用卡支付公司把数据库移到印度，并提高电子产品与智能手机关税。美国贸易代表办公室指责印度这项规定对美国商业造成负面影响，经过美方交涉后，印度仍然没有采取必要的政策调整。很明显，特朗普这个计划是一种谈判策略，目的是迫使印度改变之前的规定，进一步向美国开放电商和零售等市场。

根据美国的数据2017年美国与印度的贸易逆差为273亿美元，印方数据认为通过美国的GSP待遇，印度每年获得的“实际好处”只有2.5亿美元，取消GSP待遇对印度影响不大。而印度前不久出台的电商规定是国内零售业利益集团压力的结果，除非特朗普政府进一步加大对印度的制裁力度，否则印度不大可能改变这项政策。印方已经声明，不会对特朗普政府这个行动采取报复性措施，印度是去年受到美国钢铁和铝关税冲击的众多国家之一，印度政府曾宣布对价值2.4亿美元的美国商品征收报复性关税，但一直没有执行。 

印度确实应该进一步开放市场和投资。上世纪90年代以来，印度通过经济自由化改革和扩大对外开放，促进了经济的快速发展。早在克林顿政府时期，美国就把印度列为世界十大新兴市场之一，美国商界也对印度市场的潜力充满期待。但由于印度对外资在国家经济发展中的重要作用认识不足，加上国内某些产业、利益集团对关税保护依赖较高，对外资带来的竞争持警惕态度，阻碍了印度扩大开放。如2012年，时任总理曼莫汗.辛格曾做出开放零售业的决定，受到国际社会的普遍欢迎，但因国内零售业利益集团和某些地方政府的强力反对，还没有实施就被迫取消。目前世界主要经济体中，印度的总体关税水平最高，不仅美国，其它很多国家的企业都抱怨在印度生意难做。印度政府和企业需要认识到，扩大开放可能会面临外来竞争的压力，但印度企业可以压力下提高竞争能力，印度消费者还可以因为企业的竞争获得质优价廉的商品和服务。印度企业只有在本土经历国际竞争，才能够提高到世界上参与国际竞争的能力。因此，印度应该把进一步扩大开放作为应对贸易争端和提高印度企业国际竞争能力的重要途径。

对印度构成伤害更大的是特朗普掀起的“逆全球化”。作为一个13亿人口的大国，印度必须发展制造业才能创造大量的就业机会，才能够增强国力。莫迪政府制定了“印度制造”战略，希望在全球化深化的形势下承接国际产业转移，利用外资促进印度制造业的发展。然而，美国总统特朗普上台后，实行“美国优先”政策，大力吸引美国制造业回流，还鼓吹“买美国货，雇美国人”，减少了印度人的H1B签证，限制美国某些服务业对印度外包。在特朗普这种保护主义政策的影响下，欧洲一些国家也出现了逆全球化的趋势。如果这种逆全球化的趋势得不到控制或扭转，将使印度失去部分利用外商投资和国际市场促进经济发展的机会。因此，印度需要和中国以及其它国家一道继续维护全球多边贸易体制和推动全球化向前发展。

美国经济上斤斤计较，让印度怀疑伙伴的可靠性。美国作为人均GDP超过5万美元的世界第一经济强国，印度还是一个人均GDP不到2000且有13亿人口的欠发达国家，但美国却在经贸问题上跟印度斤斤计较。同时，美国在很多国际事务上需要印度的合作，特别是南亚及阿富汗的稳定上离不开印度的协助；特朗普政府推行的“印太战略”，如果离开印度的参与，就无法成为“印太战略”。按照美国过去的传统。在战略上对美国有用的国家，美国通常都会在经贸上给予优惠待遇，甚至经济援助，但特朗普把这些都打破了。单边施压的方式显示美国对印度缺乏尊重，而早前印度邀请特朗普作为主宾出席共和日庆典遭到拒绝，反映出他内心对印度的轻视。虽然印度政府官员表示影响不大，在总体上也不会损害美印战略合作，但特朗普政府的行为无疑会遭至印度社会的不满，美国的自私性会让印度怀疑这个伙伴的可靠性。

English Version

 India’s tariff feud with US exposes fault lines

In a letter to the Congress earlier this month, US President Donald Trump signaled plans to end preferential trade treatment for India that allows duty-free entry for Indian exports worth $5.6 billion. This is another front in his trade war after the US announced 25 percent tariffs on imported steel and 10 percent on aluminum in March 2018.

Some analysts believe the latest move by Trump targets a new set of rules of the Indian government aimed at leveling the e-commerce field in India which could hurt US giants like Amazon and Walmart-owned Flipkart.

India also required global payment giants Mastercard and Visa to store their transaction data in India and raised import tariffs on electronic products such as smartphones. After the Office of the US Trade Representative said the measures had a negative impact on US businesses, India rolled them back.

Obviously, Trump's latest decision to do away with the trade privilege to India is a negotiation tactic which aims to compel India to change its regulations and open its e-commerce and retail markets to US players.

India says the preferential trade treatment brings an "actual benefit" of just $250 million, so ending it will not have a significant impact. The e-commerce regulations issued by the Indian government were the result of pressure from domestic retail interest groups. Unless the Trump administration slaps more sanctions, India is unlikely to review its decision.

But India indeed should open up its commodity and investment markets. In the 1990s, India accelerated its economic growth via reforms and expanding the market. As early as during the Clinton administration, the US listed India as one of the world's top 10 emerging markets. The US business community also had high expectations of the Indian market.

Nonetheless, India did not fully realize the importance of foreign investment for its national economy. Moreover, some domestic industries and interest groups became too dependent on tariff protection and raised the guard on competition from abroad, which hurt the process of India's opening-up.

Among the major emerging economies, India is on top in terms of tariff. Companies from several countries, including the US, have complained of business hurdles in India. The Indian government and enterprises should realize that opening up more could increase competition, leading to lower prices and improved quality. Only when Indian companies experience international competition on their soil can they enhance their competitiveness while going global.

Perhaps what hurts India more is the Trump administration's anti-globalization strategy. As a big power with 1.3 billion people, India must develop its manufacturing industry to create more employment and consolidate its strength. The "Make in India" strategy envisioned by the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi serves the purpose of boosting Indian manufacturing with foreign investment undertaken by way of globalization.

However, since Trump took office, his "America First" policy has made many manufacturing jobs flow back to the US. He also cracked down on the H-1B visa for Indian IT firms and restricted the outsourcing of some services industries to India-based companies. With Trump's intensified protectionist policies, anti-globalization sentiment has also risen in some European countries. If this drive against globalization spirals out of control, India will lose development opportunities.

The US is the world's No.1 economy with per capita GDP over $50,000, while India is a populous and developing country with GDP per capita of less than $2,000. However, the US quibbles over every deal with India, making New Delhi doubt the reliability of Washington.

The US needs India's cooperation in international affairs, especially in South Asia and bringing stability to Afghanistan. And the Indo-Pacific strategy advanced by the Trump administration would not be what it is supposed to without India's participation.

Traditionally, the US accords preferential economic treatment or gives economic assistance to countries that it strategically deems useful. However, Trump has broken the tradition. Unilateral pressure on India exposes the US' lack of respect for New Delhi. Although Indian officials have said that an end to the preferential trade treatment does not significantly affect the country, and it will not impede strategic cooperation between Washington and New Delhi, the moves will lead to resentment against the US in India.

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中国人民大学全球治理研究中心(Global Governance Research Center，RUC)成立于2017年3月9日，是北京巨丰金控科技有限公司董事长马琳女士向中国人民大学捐赠并由中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）负责运营管理的教育基金项目。中国人民大学全球治理研究中心由原外交部副部长、人大重阳高级研究员何亚非领衔，前中国银行副行长、国际商会执行董事、人大重阳高级研究员张燕玲担任学术委员会主任，旨在构建高层次、高水准的全球治理思想交流平台，并向社会发布高质量的全球治理研究报告，努力践行咨政、启民、伐谋、孕才的智库使命。

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