【老外看中国】印度中国通：中国的新时代已经到来(中英双语)

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作者谢刚（Srikanth Kondapalli）系贾瓦哈拉尔•尼赫鲁大学东亚研究中心主席，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院外籍高级研究员，中文版由杨清清、张缘、金月月翻译，刊于10月11日中国日报网，原标题为《印度学者谈中华人民共和国成立70周年：方向、成就与展望》；英文版刊于9月30日CGTN。

今年是中华人民共和国成立70周年。70年来，中国在经济、社会、政治、军事和科技方面发生了重大变革。中国经济转型最为明显，已成为仅次于美国的全球第二大经济体。2018年中国国内生产总值（GDP）超过13万亿美元，人均GDP约为9000美元，已经达到相当于中等收入经济体的水平。中国提出“两个一百年”的奋斗目标，即2020年全面建成小康社会，2050年建成富强民主文明和谐美丽的社会主义现代化强国。

为实现这一宏伟目标，中国已经走了很长一段路。1949年，中国是世界上最贫穷的国家之一，通货膨胀率高，饱受战争蹂躏，工业基础薄弱。土地改革，以及对初级和职业教育、医疗保健，水坝、运河等基础设施项目的社会部门投资，为下一阶段的工业化带来了红利。尽管在随后的一段时期内遭受了挫折，但其社会工程项目和投资仍保持了增长的势头。

1978年河南农耕  /VCG拍摄

1975年，中国重申全面实现“四个现代化”的战略。1978年聚焦于实现农业、工业、国防和科技的现代化。面向市场的副业生产促进了农业商业化，也推动了粮食生产和收入的增加。乡镇企业通过分散投资和传播急需技术，助力国家发展。1992年邓小平“南巡讲话”后，中国成为外商直接投资的最大目的地之一，促进了合资企业的创办、基础设施项目的投资。

过去三十年间，中国制造业飞速发展，中国已成为“世界制造业中心”，其制造业占比GDP曾一度高达60%。但为了提高竞争力，中国开始调整经济结构，向服务业转型升级。现今，其制造业所占比重已降至近40％。中国平均工资水平在2005至2018年间增长了两倍以上，推动了产业向内陆及“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的转移。

根据2019年政府工作报告，今年中国经济社会发展的主要预期目标是：国内生产总值增长6%—6.5%；城镇新增就业1100万人以上。

由于全球动荡、金融危机和贸易保护主义抬头导致的贸易价值链中断，中国经济增速相对回落，这也是中国经济发展进入新常态、向中高速转变的结果。

近年来，中国推行供给侧结构性改革，刺激国内消费，推进制造业向更环保的服务业和电子商务等转型。

70年来，中国在内部治理方面也取得了实质性进展。中国共产党始终坚持“年轻化”、“正规化”和“现代化”三大方针，为实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦而奋发图强。2017年10月，中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上指出，中国特色社会主义进入“新时代”。

中国在外交领域也取得了辉煌成就。1950年代，在美国的贸易禁运打压下，中国在国际体系中遭到排斥，当时承认中华人民共和国的国家不到50个。如今，中国作为联合国安理会常任理事国，赢得了国际社会的尊重。1971年、1991年、2014年、2018年，中国先后召开了五次中央外事工作会议，中国领导人强调中国外交官要维护国家利益。正如国务委员兼外长王毅近期在《人民日报》撰文表述，这70年来，是中华民族迎来从站起来、富起来到强起来伟大飞跃的70年。王毅还建议中国在国际事务中发挥“引领作用”。如今，中国建设“人类命运共同体”的外交新时代已经到来。

以下为英文版：

70 years of the PRC – directions, achievements and prospects

By Srikanth Kondapalli, Chairman of Centre for East Asian Studies of School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University at New Delhi, and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China(RDCY).

The People's Republic of China is celebrating its 70th birthday this year with pomp and gaiety. In its seven decades, China saw major transformations in its economy, society, political system, military mechanism and technological drive.
The economic transformation of the country is the starkest, with China becoming the second largest in the world, only after the United States. It stands over 13 trillion U.S. dollars in gross domestic product in 2018. Its per capita income levels have increased to nearly 9,000 U.S. dollars making it a relatively middle income economy.
It intends to reach a "well-off society" by the first hundredth anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party in 2021 and realize "socialist modernization" by the founding of the PRC in 2049.
With this ambitious goal in mind, China has come a long way. In 1949, China was one of the most underdeveloped countries in the world with high inflation, a war-ravaged society and with hardly any industry.
Land reforms, collectivization of agriculture and investments in the social sector such as primary and vocational education, health care, infrastructure projects such as dams, canals and other areas paid dividends for the next phase of industrialization.
Despite the setback in the subsequent period, social engineering projects and social investments kept up the momentum.
China launched a Four Modernization program in 1975 but more concertedly in 1978 with focus on agriculture, industry, science and technology and defense. Side-line production for the market triggered commercialization of agriculture but also food production and rising of incomes.
Township and village enterprises further added luster to the country by diffusing investments and much-needed technologies. The 1992 "southern tour" by Deng Xiaoping led China to become one of the largest destinations of foreign direct investments necessary for joint ventures but also infrastructure projects.
In the last three decades of growth, the manufacturing sector expanded substantially, making China the "manufacturing hub of the world" – garnering at one time nearly 60 percent of the GDP.
However, to enhance its competitiveness, China began restructuring the economy towards the services sector and as a result today the manufacturing sector position has been reduced to nearly 40 percent.The average wage labor more than tripled between 2005 and 2018, triggering prospects for relocation of industries into the interior or in the Belt and Road Initiative areas.
The relative decline in China's economic growth rate – that is a shift to medium-high growth rate – is due to the global turbulence, financial crisis and disruptions in trade value chain in light of trade protectionist trends.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced a slew of measures including large-scale tax cuts and fees of about 300 billion U.S. dollars so as to incentivize enterprises to spend more on research development and innovation. Foreign Investment Law was also enacted to deepen reform.
However, problems persist in the economy. China had reduced poverty in the country, although Gini-coefficient index of income inequality between rural and urban incomes is rising.
China's debt to GDP ratio had risen from 147 percent in 2007 to 303 percent in the first quarter of 2019 – suggesting that the global financial stability could exhibit strains given the extensive global trading of China in recent times.
A lighting show is exhibited in Zhongguancun, a technology hub in Haidian District, to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of People's Republic of China in Beijing, China, September 27, 2019.
By 2019, the total debt of China was over 5.2 trillion U.S. dollars, although offset by high domestic savings. FOREX reserves fell from 4 trillion U.S. dollars in 2014 to over 3.1 trillion U.S. dollars by mid 2019. There are also issues related to environment. While undertaking measures for sustainable development, China is confident it can address these issues.
Another area China made substantial progress in the past seven decades is in internal consolidation. With over 90 million members, the Communist Party of China is one of the biggest political dispensations in the world.
It is planning to celebrate its hundredth anniversary, in contrast to many other communist parties across the world, which suffered following the disintegration of the Soviet Union and its Communist Party.
By the three principles of "youthification," "regularization" and "modernization," China's Communist Party is poised to "rejuvenate" the country in order to realize the Chinese Dream.
A third area of significance is in the foreign policy domain of the country.Today as a Permanent Five member at the United Nations Security Council, China commands respect among the comity of nations.
In the five Central Conferences on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs that China had held so far in 1971, 1991, 2014 and 2018, the political leadership directed the diplomats of the country to protect national interests.
As Wang Yi, the Foreign Minister and State Councilor, wrote in the People's Daily recently about the seven decades of diplomatic achievements, China has "stood up, grown rich and become strong" in the international domain. Moreover, Wang suggested, China is playing a "lead role" in international affairs.

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