周波《纽约时报》头版头条：美撤军后的阿富汗是中国的黄金机遇

中国论坛清华大学战略与安全研究中心 2022-10-08

编者按

过去一周，阿富汗局势迎来转折时刻。美军在进入阿富汗20年之后仓促撤退，塔利班重新回到阿富汗首都喀布尔，阿富汗总统加尼前往国外。8月21日，清华大学战略与安全研究中心研究员、中国论坛特约专家周波在《纽约时报》时评版头条发表文章认为，美国撤军后的阿富汗是中国的黄金机遇。中国论坛特转发中英文原文，以飨读者。

塔利班接管阿富汗的速度之快、范围之广，引起了西方的反思：哪里做错了？这场耗费数万亿美元进行的长达二十年的战争，怎么会以如此不光彩的方式走到尽头？中国却正在向前看—准备填补由美国仓促撤退留下的空白，抓住一个黄金机遇。

虽然北京还没有正式承认塔利班为阿富汗新政府，但在周一发表声明说，中国“尊重阿富汗人民自主决定自己的前途命运”，并将发展“与阿富汗的友好合作关系”。

这一信息很明确：北京对与塔利班建立更紧密的关系几无顾虑，并准备在阿富汗这个现在几乎被美国抛弃的国家面前，表明自己是最具影响力的外部参与者。

与美国不同，中国在阿富汗问题上没有包袱。自美国入侵以来，中国就一直在阿富汗问题上保持低调，不愿意在任何强权政治中充当美国的副手。北京眼看着华盛顿在阿富汗的战争变成混乱且代价高昂的泥沼。与此同时，中国向阿富汗提供了数百万美元的援助，用于医疗救助、医院、太阳能发电站等。在此期间，北京一直在促进中阿贸易关系，最终成为阿富汗最大的贸易伙伴之一。

随着美国撤军，中国可以提供喀布尔最需要的政治中立和经济投资。阿富汗同样也拥有中国最看重的基础设施建设和工业建设的机会—中国在这些领域的能力可以说是无与伦比—以及获得价值1万亿美元未开发矿藏的机会，其中包括锂、铁、铜、钴和黄金等关键工业金属。尽管有专家提出，中国在一个安全程度较低的阿富汗进行投资并非战略重点，但我认为并非如此。

中国企业以投资于不太稳定的国家并获得回报而闻名。当然这并非总是一帆风顺，但中国有耐心。尽管美军的存在一定程度上阻止了恐怖组织将阿富汗作为避风港，但美军的撤离也意味着与塔利班长达20年的战争已经结束。因此，中国大规模投资的障碍就消除了。当然，中国是世界工业金属和矿产的主要买家，需要这些矿产资源帮助经济发展。

中国目前的长期战略投资计划之一是“一带一路”倡议，旨在为整个地区的基础设施提供资金和建设。迄今为止，阿富汗一直是这个巨大拼图中具有吸引力但缺失的一块。如果中国能够将“一带一路”从巴基斯坦延伸到阿富汗，例如修建一条从白沙瓦到喀布尔的高速公路，就能开辟一条通往中东市场的较短的陆路。一条穿过喀布尔的新路也会让印度对“一带一路”的抵制变得无足轻重。甚至在接管喀布尔之前，塔利班就承诺要保护中国在阿富汗的投资。

北京现在还可以对阿富汗的政局施加更大影响。这个国家的历史告诉我们，很少有一个派别能控制整个国家。鉴于塔利班闪电式接管，发生一些内乱也有可能。在联合国安理会五个常任理事国中，中国已经是向联合国维和行动派遣人员最多的国家，还向联合国注册了8000名维和待命官兵，这使中国有望成为最大的维和部队派遣国之一。如果联合国维和部队被部署到阿富汗，几乎可以肯定的是，来自友好邻国中国的维和部队将比那些远道而来的外国军人更受欢迎。

在阿富汗发挥影响力还意味着，北京在防止反华组织在阿富汗立足方面处于更有利的地位。中国最主要的担心是“东伊运”。根据中国政府的报告，该组织最初起源于阿富汗。按照联合国的说法，“东伊运”在本世纪初得到了塔利班和基地组织的支持。一些学者和专家怀疑该组织是否有能力煽动暴力或它是否还继续存在。但是，中国外长王毅7月份会见塔利班领导人巴拉达尔时表示，希望塔利班与东伊运“划清界限”，因为该组织对“中国国家安全和领土完整构成直接威胁”。王毅还表示，希望塔利班“树立正面形象，奉行包容政策”—这是一个信号，表明中国希望塔利班兑现其“包容性”治理的承诺。作为回应，巴拉达尔承诺，塔利班决不允许任何势力利用阿富汗领土做危害中国的事情。

当然，阿富汗和平与稳定的关键，部分也在于巴基斯坦。阿富汗前总统卡尔扎伊曾把阿巴形容为“连体婴儿”，表示两国虽然近在咫尺，但并不总是目标一致。在很大程度上，巴基斯坦对阿政策的战略目标是确保喀布尔是一个友好的政府，并削弱印度在阿富汗日益增长的影响力。确保巴基斯坦和阿富汗关系良好符合北京的自身利益，尤其有利于“一带一路”的成功。

中国在巴基斯坦拥有巨大的影响力并不是什么秘密。中国知道自己的分量，也知道未来的需求，在6月份就承诺将继续帮助巴阿两国发展和改善关系。

最后，即便美国正在撤离，北京和华盛顿仍有机会为建设一个稳定的阿富汗共同努力。尽管中美之间存在分歧，两国在阿富汗问题上已经开展了一些合作，例如联合培训外交官和技术人员。两国都不希望看到阿富汗陷入内战。两国都支持“阿人主导、阿人所有”的政治解决方案。因此，阿富汗有望成为两个竞争巨人的合作点。周一，王毅在与美国国务卿布林肯通话时表示，中国愿同美国合作，“推动阿富汗问题实现软着陆”。

阿富汗一直被视为“帝国坟场”—从亚历山大大帝、大英帝国，到苏联和今天的美国，概莫能外。现在中国来了，带来的不是炸弹，而是建设蓝图。中国有机会证明这一诅咒能被打破。

英文原文刊载于纽约时报8月21日版，截图来自《纽约时报》

In Afghanistan, China Is Ready to Step Into the Void

The speed and scope of the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan have prompted introspection in the West over what went wrong, and how, after billions of dollars spent on a 20-year war effort, it could all end so ignominiously. China, though, is looking forward. It is ready to step into the void left by the hasty U.S. retreat to seize a golden opportunity.

While Beijing has yet to formally recognize the Taliban as Afghanistan’s new government, China issued a statement on Monday saying that it “respects the right of the Afghan people to independently determine their own destiny” and will develop “friendly and cooperative relations with Afghanistan.”

The message here is clear: Beijing has few qualms about fostering a closer relationship with the Taliban and is ready to assert itself as the most influential outside player in an Afghanistan now all but abandoned by the United States.

Unlike the United States, China brings no baggage to the table in Afghanistan. China has kept a low profile in the country since the U.S. invasion, not wishing to play second fiddle to the United States in any power politics. Beijing watched as Washington’s foray in Afghanistan became a messy and costly morass. In the meantime, China provided Afghanistan millions of dollars in aid for medical assistance, hospitals, a solar power station and more. All the while, Beijing was fostering stronger trade relations, eventually becoming one of Afghanistan’s largest trading partners.

With the U.S. withdrawal, Beijing can offer what Kabul needs most: political impartiality and economic investment. Afghanistan in turn has what China most prizes: opportunities in infrastructure and industry building — areas in which China’s capabilities are arguably unmatched — and access to $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits, including critical industrial metals such as lithium, iron, copper and cobalt. Though critics have raised the point that Chinese investment is not a strategic priority in a less secure Afghanistan, I believe otherwise.

Chinese companies have a reputation for investing in less stable countries if it means they can reap the rewards. That doesn’t always happen so smoothly, but China has patience. Although the presence of U.S. troops went some way toward preventing armed groups from using Afghanistan as a haven, their exit also means that a 20-year war with the Taliban has ended. Therefore the barriers for Chinese investment on a large scale are removed. China is of course a major buyer of the world’s industrial metalsand minerals to fund its economic engine.

One of China’s current long-term strategic investment plans is the Belt-and-Road Initiative, an effort to finance and build infrastructure across the region. And Afghanistan until now has been an attractive but a missing piece of the enormous puzzle. If China were able to extend the Belt-and-Road from Pakistan through to Afghanistan — for example, with a Peshawar-to-Kabul motorway — it would open up a shorter land route to gain access to markets in the Middle East. A new route through Kabul would also make India’s resistance to joining the Belt-and-Road less consequential.

Even before its takeover of Kabul, the Taliban had promised to protect Chinese investments in Afghanistan.

Beijing is now also positioned to hold greater influence over the country’s political landscape. Afghanistan’s history tells us that one group is rarely in control of the entire country, and given the Taliban’s lightning takeover, it’s reasonable to expect some civil strife. China — already the largest troop contributor to U.N. peacekeeping missions among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council — has also registered a peacekeeping standby force of 8,000 troops — a move that could make it one of the largest contributors overall. If a U.N. peacekeeping mission is deployed to Afghanistan, Chinese peacekeepers, coming from a friendly neighboring country, will almost certainly be more welcome than those from afar.

Becoming an influential player in Afghanistan also means that Beijing is better positioned to prevent what it considers anti-Chinese groups from gaining a foothold in the country. A primary concern of China is the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. According to a Chinese government report, the group had early roots in Afghanistan. According to the U.N., it received Taliban and Al Qaeda support in the 2000s. Some scholars and experts question whether the group has the capacity to instigate violence, or whether it even continues to exist. Still, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, said in a July meeting with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the deputy leader of the Taliban, that he hoped the Taliban would “make a clean break” with the East Turkestan group because it “poses a direct threat to China’s national security and territorial integrity.” Mr. Wang also expressed hope that the Taliban would “build a positive image and pursue an inclusive policy” — a signal that China wants the Taliban to make good on its promise of “inclusive” governance.

In response, Mr. Baradar promised that the Taliban would never allow any group to use the Afghan territory to engage in acts harmful to China.

The key to Afghanistan’s peace and stability, of course, also lies partly in Pakistan. Despite their proximity, the “conjoined twins,” as described by the former Afghan president Hamid Karzai, don’t always look in the same direction. Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy is driven largely by the strategic goals of ensuring a friendly government in Kabul and undercutting India’s increasing influence in Afghanistan. It is in Beijing’s own interest — not least for the success of Belt-and-Road — to ensure that Pakistan and Afghanistan are on good terms.

It is no secret that China already enjoys strong influence in Pakistan. Anticipating a more prominent role and future necessity, Beijing pledged in June to continue helping develop and improve relations between the two countries.

Finally, even though the United States is leaving, there is an opportunity for Beijing and Washington to work together for a stable Afghanistan. China and the United States, despite their differences, have enjoyed some cooperation in Afghanistan already — for example, jointly training diplomats and technicians. Neither country wishes to see Afghanistan slide into a civil war. Both of them support a political solution that is Afghan-led and Afghan-owned. Therefore, Afghanistan provides an area for the two competing giants to find some common cause.

When Mr. Wang spoke to Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday, he said China stood ready to work with the United States to “push for a soft landing of the Afghan issue.”

Afghanistan has long been considered a graveyard for conquerors — Alexander the Great, the British Empire, the Soviet Union and now the United States. Now China enters — armed not with bombs but construction blueprints, and a chance to prove the curse can be broken.

翻译：中国论坛韩桦