高健：英国政界须慎重思考这三个问题

高健上海外国语大学英国研究中心主任，中国论坛特约专家

近来，英国对华政策意识形态化的特征越发凸显。英方就南海问题发表了颠倒黑白、蓄意挑拨地区国家间关系的错误言论。之前为了给首相赴美访问呈上投名状，英国政府还在最新版《安全、防务与外交政策综合评估》报告中，将中国描述为“划时代的挑战”，不仅首次将中国大陆描述为台湾地区的所谓“威胁”，还扬言“反对片面改变台海现状”，声称中国对英国所谓的“价值观”和利益构成了“系统性挑战”。

极为悖论的是，就在英国外交日益高调的同时，英国国内社会问题却日益严峻。美国《外交政策》杂志的相关文章认为，无论以何种标准衡量，英国都面临着严重的经济危机，如果没有重大的政策转变，这场危机将加剧演变为全面社会危机。文章认为，现在英国的平均实际工资低于18年前，这在该国和平时期的经济史上是前所未有的。根据英国《金融时报》相关专家最近的一项分析，到明年年底，英国家庭的平均收入将低于斯洛文尼亚家庭的平均收入。由于英国是欧洲发达国家中经济增长最为滞缓的代表，一些西方媒体因此给英国冠以“欧洲病夫”的说法，社会知识阶层对英国政府治理能力的评价可见一斑。在国内社会民生问题如此严峻之际，英国政府在外交上却大行挑战中国之举，其中的内在逻辑究竟是什么？

概而言之，英国已从“全球英国”战略构想明显转为以美国马首是瞻的“盎格鲁-撒克逊化”的外交态势。造成这一变化趋势的根本原因是主导当今英国政坛的冷战思维与西方文化优越感。英国保守党内的一些权贵大佬在情感层面上始终无法接纳中国这样一个非西方国家日益富强的客观事实，他们依然陶醉在旧时代帝国辉煌的梦境中，不愿意也不敢正视本国社会政治制度的根本问题。因此，无论中国的现代化道路取得了怎样的成就，中国都需要被定义为对西方制度造成“系统性威胁”的“划时代挑战”，只有如此，那些政客才可以心安理得地在自我构建的“思维茧房”中维持优越感。就客观原因而言，英国政治背后的美国因素是一个强大的主导力量。前首相特拉斯在位时间极为短暂，这在一定程度上可以归因于美国方面对她并不支持。在华为5G技术商用等一系列涉及中英双边关系重要利益的问题上，华盛顿早已从幕后直接跳到台前。在中美博弈日益激烈的背景下，英国想要左右逢源争取本国利益最大化的外交空间日益狭小，基于英美特殊关系的外交传统与僵化单一的外交原则，伦敦选择了放弃卡梅伦时期的外交新思维，沦为美国外交布局中的一枚棋子。

当今英国外交“一边倒”已经不是倾向与趋势，而是事实与现状，它已经牢牢与美国的外交政策绑在一起。美国试图以新冷战的概念重新绑架欧亚盟友，以捍卫西方所谓的“民主自由”为口号，将世界重新划分为“西方”与“非西方”的对立阵营。然而，作为美西方外交战略的思想供给者与忠实追随者，英国外交意识形态化解得了国内日益深重的社会危机吗？

英国政界必须慎重思考以下三个问题：第一，继续以冷战思维应对21世纪的世界发展趋势，是否可行？中国不是上个世纪的苏联，更不是一直以来奉行霸权主义的美国。中国一直秉持相互尊重、平等互利、合作共赢原则，中国经济发展的“列车”正在开足马力全速前进，就中国的经济体量与市场规模而言，英国究竟要不要背弃以往商业立国、贸易立国的原则，不与中国经济列车并行？第二，西方的意识形态牌究竟还能打多久？试想一下，如果英国当前的经济危机进一步演化为全面社会危机与政治危机，如果英国自身的社会民生问题都无法得到有效回应与解决，这种所谓的民主机制的话语权究竟何在？深陷国内社会治理危机的英国面临的最大“划时代挑战”，恰恰来自于危机四伏的英国政治现状。第三，与美国利益紧密捆绑果真可以保证英国的根本利益吗？观察俄乌冲突的发展进程，美国从欧洲的盟友变成实实在在的“损友”，瑞士百年金融信誉遭受重创，德法经济利益成为美国缓解国内经济危机的牺牲品，英国果真可以在所谓“英美特殊关系”中高枕无忧吗？

必须强调的是，英国保守党的政治生命，最终取决于能否有效化解国内社会民生危机。违背英国政治发展的一般规律，背离英国商业立国、贸易立国的基本原则，苏纳克内阁的未来难言光明。

本文2023年4月7日首发于《环球时报》

Increasingly Americanized British diplomacy turns 'Global Britain' strategy into a joke

In recent weeks, leaders from both developed and developing countries and regions, including the EU, France, ASEAN, Germany and Brazil, have visited or are scheduled to visit China. But the UK is absent. 

Since the cancellation of a planned meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the G20 summit, it seems London is determined to follow Washington's path of confrontation.

The ideological features of the UK's policy toward China have become increasingly prominent. In order to present British loyalty before Sunak's visit to the US in March, the UK, in the Integrated Review Refresh 2023, portrayed China as an "epoch-defining challenge." Not only did the document mention the "threat" the Chinese mainland poses to the Taiwan island for the first time, but also it claimed to oppose any unilateral change in the status quo across the Taiwan Straits. Furthermore, Sunak said last November that the UK's "golden era" with China is over and that China posed a "systematic challenge" to UK "values and interests." 

Ironically, while British diplomacy is becoming increasingly high-profile, the country's social problems are becoming growingly severe. It seems that the UK's "global Britain" diplomacy strategy will ultimately turn to be a joke.

An article by Foreign Policy magazine, entitled "Britain Is Much Worse Off Than It Understands," said, "By any criteria, the United Kingdom faces a serious economic and social crisis, one that will deepen without big shifts in policy." It continued that "Average U.K. real wages are now lower than 18 years ago, which is unprecedented in the country's peacetime economic history." 

At a time when domestic social livelihood issues are so grave, why is the UK government challenging China's fundamental diplomatic interests on such a large scale? What is the underlying logic?

In the era of great power competition between China and the US, British foreign policy has shifted significantly from the "Global Britain" strategy toward a more "Anglo-Saxonized" diplomatic trend. The fundamental reason for this development is the Cold War mind-set and Western cultural superiority that dominate the current British politics. 

The powerful figures of the Conservative Party cannot accept the fact of a non-Western country like China becoming increasingly prosperous. They are still enamored with the dream of the imperial glory of the past, reluctant and unable to face the root problems of their own society and political system.

In the context of the increasingly fierce competition between China and the US, the diplomatic space for the UK to maximize its own interests is becoming increasingly narrow. Today's British diplomacy has been firmly tied to the US foreign policy. 

The US is trying to unite its Eurasian allies under the concept of a new cold war, using the slogan of defending Western democracy and freedom as a slogan, and re-dividing the world into opposing camps of "the West" and "non-Western." As an ideological supplier and loyal follower of the diplomatic strategy of the US and the West, can the ideology of British diplomacy really save the increasingly serious social crisis in the country?

British political circles must carefully consider the following three questions: First, is it feasible to continue to respond to the world development trend in the 21st century with a Cold War mentality? China is not the Soviet Union of the last century, let alone the US, which has always pursued hegemony. China practices the development concept of equality, mutual benefit, and win-win cooperation. In terms of the size of the Chinese economy and domestic market, shouldn't the UK, which has always been a country founded on commerce and trade, get on board the fast-moving train of the Chinese economy?

Second, how long can the ideological card of Western liberal democracy be played? Just imagine, if the current economic crisis in the UK further evolves into a comprehensive social crisis and political crisis, if the social and livelihood issues in the UK cannot be effectively responded to and solved, what on earth is the discourse power of this so-called democratic mechanism?

Third, can a close alignment with the US interests really secure Britain's fundamental interests? In the past year's conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the US has gone from an ally of Europe to an actual "bad friend," Switzerland's century-old financial reputation has been destroyed, and the fundamental economic interests of Germany and France have been sacrificed by the US to solve its own domestic economic crisis. 

In this regard, can the UK really rest easy in the so-called "special relationship?" It must be stressed that the political life of the British Conservative Party will be ultimately determined by the attitude of the British people.

The author is a scholar at Shanghai International Studies University and a China Forum Expert of CISS, Tsinghua University. 

This article was first published on GLOBAL TIMES on April 10, 2023

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