人工智能，叩响非洲大门

Sharing the latest articles of the UNESCO Courier with you.

与您第一时间分享联合国教科文《信使》杂志的最新文章。

南非科学家和人工智能专家西里达兹·马尔瓦拉（Tshilidzi Marwala）指出，非洲领导人必须借助科技的力量，利用第四次工业革命带领非洲大陆走出贫困，建设更美好的未来。

African leaders must embrace technology and use the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) to drive the continent out of poverty and into a better future, argues leading South African scientist and artificial intelligence (AI) expert Tshilidzi Marwala.

Tshilidzi Marwala, 

interviewed by Edwin Naidu

西里达兹 · 马尔瓦拉；埃德温 · 耐杜 担任采访

《信使》谨以本次访谈纪念5 月25日世界非洲日。

With this interview, the Courier participates in the celebration of World Africa Day, 25 May.

20 世纪80 年代末，中国政府大力发展经济，迄今已经让八亿人口成功脱贫。南非的人口比中国少，在您看来，南非政府能够通过投资发展第四次工业革命取得类似的成果吗？

In the late 1980s, the Chinese government invested in the economy, and has since lifted 800 million people out of poverty. Do you see the South African government being able to achieve similar results, albeit with a smaller population, through investment in 4IR*?

如果我们现在将机器人应用到制造业中，或许可以节省更多成本。这让我担心，一旦第四次工业革命实现了生产过程的全自动化，雇主们可能会觉得人工劳动力的价格过高。

If robots are used in the manufacturing process, it will probably be even cheaper than it has traditionally been in the past. Therefore, I am afraid 4IR may mark the cost of labour as a deterrent to employers, with the complete automation of the production process.

第四次工业革命无疑将为各个工作领域带来改变，因为人工智能机械将接管以往由人类完成的工作。由此造成的结果是，人类的工作机会减少了，工厂会不断裁员，不平等现象将明显加剧。资金充裕的工厂主可以购买工业机器人，用更少的资源生产更多的产品，他们本人也将积累大量财富，而其他人将被排挤到社会边缘。

Undoubtedly, 4IR will change the world of work with artificially intelligent machines performing tasks that were traditionally performed by humans. As a result, the world of work is already shrinking, with factories employing fewer people than before. There will be a marked increase in inequality.

南非乃至整个非洲大陆别无选择，必须抓住第四次工业革命带来的机遇，迎接挑战，并利用这次革命为非洲面临的众多问题寻求解决方案。

Those with adequate capital to buy industrial robots will produce more with fewer resources and will become very wealthy, while the rest will be relegated to the margins of society. South Africa, and the African Continent, have no choice but to embrace 4IR and use it to find solutions to the plethora of problems facing us.

所有非洲国家政府都在投资发展第四次工业革命吗？

Are all African governments investing in 4IR ?

我不这么认为。尽管莫桑比克、刚果民主共和国、肯尼亚、卢旺达和南非等国已经率先起步，取得了一定进展，但要将非洲大陆的54 个国家全部动员起来，投身第四次工业革命，难度是非常高的。中国确实面积辽阔，可毕竟只是一个国家，而非洲国家不仅数量众多，还处在不同的发展阶段，这就使局面变得更加复杂了。

I don’t think that is the case, even though there are some pockets of excellence to be found in Mozambique, Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, and South Africa, to some extent. Mobilizing on an issue like 4IR in a continent with fifty-four countries is a lot more complicated than handling one country, even if it is as big as China. Considering that the countries are at different stages of development makes the situation even more complex.

我认为，第四次工业革命将是一场数据革命——关于人的数据、遗传数据、驱动这场革命的数据。有一个问题我们必须要问：非洲国家拿到数据了吗？答案多半是否定的。在非洲，最大的数据采集者是美国的跨国公司。在数据收集和管理水平上，非洲在1到10 分之间只能拿到3分，这不能不令人担心。

I believe that 4IR is going to be about data – whether it is the data of people, genetic data, or the data that drives 4IR itself. The question we must ask is, are African countries obtaining data? The answer, I am afraid, is no. The biggest data capturers in Africa are United States multinationals. When it comes to data, collection or management, Africa would score three, on a scale of one to ten. This figure is alarming.

第四次工业革命的一大问题是：成王败寇。南非原本有一个本土搜索引擎——Anansi，它能收集大量本土数据，但它不是谷歌的对手，在2011年彻底失败了。若问全球排名第二的搜索引擎是哪个，可能大多数人都答不上来——是微软的必应（Bing）。然而在谷歌的影响之下，即使排名第二也照样举步维艰。

One of the big problems with 4IR is that the winner takes all. In South Africa, we had a local search engine, called Anansi, which aggressively gathered local data, but it was no match for Google – it has since folded, in 2011. Few people can name the world’s number two search engine – the answer is Microsoft’s Bing, but even they’re struggling. There is no room for a number two – the fact that Google is not available in China is a huge advantage for Chinese companies.

不过，与大多数其他公司一样，网络巨头并不会为解决我们的当地问题花费太多时间。例如，谷歌地图连我们当地路线的名称都念不准。假如由本土公司制作国内地图，再配上正确的发音，与谷歌相比就有了优势。赢得竞争的关键在于充分利用本土优势。

However, the web giants, like most corporations, don’t spend a lot of time dealing with local issues. For instance, Google Maps does not pronounce the names on our local routes well. If we produced our own domestic maps with the right pronunciations, we would have an edge over Google. The key to competition is to address challenges locally.

非洲国家与第四次工业革命的技术生产者之间有多大差距？

How far are African countries from becoming producers of 4IR technology?

说实话，我认为非洲国家在技术发明方面并不落后。人们对于埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）和他的特斯拉汽车津津乐道，其实南非曾经生产过的“焦耳”（一种五座电动轿车）同样非常先进。可惜，由于必须售出100万辆才能实现盈利，这项技术被雪藏了。非洲国家注册了多项专利，但因为非洲市场不够大，我们的产品往往夭折在实验室里。无论如何， 必须售出100万辆才能实现盈利的经济学定律是不会变的。所以，我们不仅要开发重要的技术，还需要开创新市场，制定行之有效的出口战略。

I think we produce a lot of technology, to be honest. I hear a lot about Elon Musk, and his Tesla car, but South Africa had the Joule [an electric five-seater passenger car], which was shelved because it would have had to sell a million units to be viable. We register a lot of patents, but our markets are just not big enough, so our products are dying in laboratories. The economics dictate that you need to sell huge amounts to survive. It’s not just creating the technology that matters. We need to create new markets and build an effective export strategy.

在第四次工业革命中，企业是否应与政府建立公私合作伙伴关系，并借此发挥更大的作用？

Should corporations be playing a bigger role through public-private partnerships (PPPs) with governments on 4IR?

毫无疑问，企业必须发挥重要作用。我注意到，尽管不是所有人都这样想，但确实有很多人认为非洲不是开展生产的理想场所。例如，非洲没有一家苹果产品生产商。创办制造工厂，是建立与品牌公司合作关系的第一步，因为比起在其他国家生产、只在此地经销的公司，在本地同时进行生产和经营的公司往往更容易合作。

Absolutely, corporations must play a big role. What I have observed, and this is a controversial view, is that there is a culture that does not consider Africa as a place to produce. For example, there is no plant in Africa making Apple products. Companies that have production in nations they operate in, are much easier to partner with than those merely bringing their products manufactured elsewhere into the country.

为了让跨国公司在非洲大陆投资生产，我们需要提供哪些机制？南非汽车工业就是一个很好的榜样，政府政策规定，在本土生产的汽车公司将得到补贴。

What are some of the mechanisms that we need to put in place for multinationals to invest in production on the continent? In South Africa, the motor industry is a good example, where it is government policy to subsidize automobile companies who produce here.

目前，我们对于参与第四次工业革命的公司还没有采取类似的政策，这一点要在今后做到。为推动第四次工业革命，建立经济特区不失为一个好办法，政府可以为企业提供税收优惠，以促进生产、创造就业机会、拉动经济增长。

Currently, we do not have similar policies for companies participating in 4IR; we need to do that as we move forward. Creating special economic zones with 4IR in mind is a good idea, with governments providing companies with tax incentives that would promote production, job creation and help grow the economy.

这些激励措施不能只惠及外国公司，也应让本土企业能够从中受益。

These incentives should not just be for foreign companies, but local businesses should be able to benefit from them too.

这意味着政治领导人在新技术的引进过程中必须起到重要作用。

This means that political leaders need to play an essential role in the process of introducing new technologies.

非洲首先要做的是拥立懂技术的新一代领导人。卢旺达高速互联网的发展足以证明保罗· 卡加梅（Paul Kagame）总统是懂技术的。在肯尼亚，第四次工业革命催生了大量创业公司，并且推出了数字货币，这让我们知道乌胡鲁· 肯雅塔（Uhuru Kenyatta）总统也是懂技术的。

One of the first things Africa needs to do is to start having leaders who understand technology. In Rwanda, the high-speed internet makes it obvious that President Paul Kagame understands technology. In Kenya, the number of 4IR startups and the launching of the digital currency makes it clear that the President Uhuru Kenyatta understands technology.

此外，南非总统西里尔.拉马福萨（Cyril Ramaphosa）大力倡导科学技术，是第一位将第四次工业革命作为核心国策的领导人。在2018年2月发表的《国情咨文》中，拉马福萨总统谈到了数字工业革命，并支持建立第四次工业革命专家委员会，负责指导相关战略。我们需要制定国家方略，类似于印度的《国家人工智能战略》或《中国制造2025》战略性制造业发展计划，将南非打造成锐意创新的高科技强国。希望在拉马福萨总统的支持下，委员会能够制定方针，动员政治、经济和社会力量，推动经济发展走上正轨。

In South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa is the first leader who has placed 4IR at the forefront of his strategy, and he is a big advocate for science and technology. In his State of the Nation address in February 2018, he talked about the digital industrial revolution, and has committed to the launch of a commission of experts on 4IR to drive strategy. We need a national strategy, like India’s National Strategy for AI or the Made in China 2025 strategic manufacturing plan to transform itself into an innovative hi-tech powerhouse. Hopefully the commission driven by President Ramaphosa will create a strategy, mobilizing political, economic and social forces to put the economy on a good trajectory.

非洲大陆现有13 亿人口，并且这个数字还在增长——就人口来说，非洲的发展是全世界最快的。如果没有第四次工业革命的技术，非洲将无法应对人口爆炸、粮食保障和城市化等问题。

The African continent now has 1.3 billion people and is still growing – it is the fastest-growing continent in terms of population. You are not going to be able to deal with the issues of population explosion, food security or urbanization without 4IR technology.

非洲领导人必须了解技术，并以发展的眼光看待未来。这就必然意味着，我们今后一定要选择并拥立具备这些品质的新一代领导者。

Our leaders must understand technology – they must be developmental in their outlook. And this necessarily means that moving forward, we must start identifying new leaders with these qualities.

END

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