启研学社由知名学者担任学术顾问，高校师生与企研数据科学团队联合组建，以大数据资源及相关技术助力中国学术与智库研究为宗旨的研究组织。团队当前的主要目标是挖掘经济社会大数据资源在学术和智库领域的应用价值，开展学术大数据治理研究，以及探索大数据分析技术融入中国经济社会研究的可行进路。
《澳洲农业与资源经济学》（《Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics》）2020年正式发表了57篇文章，其中有20篇研究中国的文章，占比达到⅓，原因是2020年第一期为中国农村改革四十年特刊。
以下翻译仅供参考，如有错误，以原文为准
Agricultural and rural development in China during the past four decades: an introductionJikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, Xinkai Zhu, Shiji Zhao, Yu ShengThe past four decades have witnessed unprecedented economic growth and rapidly rising food demand in China. This paper provides an introduction to readers with useful information summarising the development of China’s agricultural sector and the transformation of its rural economy over the 40 years of economic reform. It is, however, impossible to cover all aspects of this recent and rich history in a single journal special issue. Nevertheless, we are of the view that these papers address the most fundamentally important and insightful topics including: land reform and rural development; technology progress and productivity growth; changing food consumption patterns; rural education and human capital accumulation; and poverty alleviation.Key words: agricultural production, rural development in China, 40 years of reform.摘要：过去四十年以来，中国经历了前所未有的经济增长和粮食需求的快速增长。本文向读者概述了中国经济改革四十年来农业部门的发展和农村经济的转型，然而，我们无法在一本期刊的特刊中覆盖这段丰富历史的所有方面。尽管如此，我们认为这些文章涉及最重要和最有洞察力的主题，包括土地改革与农村发展、技术进步和生产率增长、食品消费模式改变、农村教育和人力资本积累以及农村脱贫。Aggregate and distributional impacts of China’s household responsibility systemIt is 40 years since China started to abandon collective farming, with initial rural reforms in 1978 that culminated in adoption of the household responsibility system (HRS). Existing studies of impacts of these reforms do not consider nonrandom spread of the HRS, spillovers from early adopters, or distributional effects. In this paper, the synthetic control method and spatial autoregressive panel models with autoregressive errors are used to estimate impacts of the HRS that account for these features. The HRS had a significant positive effect on grain output and food supply in China, while also helping to reduce regional inequality.Key words: China, household responsibility system, regional inequality, spatial spillovers, synthetic controls.摘要：中国在1978年进行了最初的农村改革，放弃了原有的集体农业，开始采用家庭联产承包责任制（HRS）。现有的关于这些改革影响的研究并没有考虑HRS的非随机扩散、早期HRS采用者的溢出效应或者分配效应。本文使用合成控制法和带有自回归误差的空间自回归模型来估计HRS这些特征的影响。研究结果表明，HRS对中国的粮食产量和粮食供应产生了显著的正面影响，同时也有助于减少地区不平等。关键词：中国，家庭联产承包责任制，区域不平等，空间溢出，合成控制。Property rights reform to support China’s rural - urban integration: household-level evidence from the Chengdu experiment
产权改革支持中国的城乡一体化：来自成都实验的家庭层面的证据Klaus Deininger, Songqing Jin, Shouying Liu, Fang XiaIn 2008, as part of a national experiment, Chengdu prefecture implemented ambitious property rights reforms including complete registration of all land together with measures to ease transferability and eliminate migration restrictions. Results from a difference-in-difference analysis of the National Statistics Bureau’s regular household survey suggest that the reforms increased consumption and income, in particular for less wealthy and less educated households, with estimated benefits well above the cost of implementation. Local labour supply increased with the young shifting towards agriculture and the old towards off-farm employment. The reforms also contributed to higher agricultural yields and profits through three channels, namely: (i) greater rental market activity that transferred land to more productive producers; (ii) substitution of purchased inputs for labour; and (iii) a shift out of grains towards vegetables, corn, and oilseeds all of which offer higher levels of profitability. All of these findings are consistent with the notion that, without reforms, imperfections in factor markets undermined investment and functioning of land and labour markets, preventing highvalue peri-urban land from being used most effectively and reducing job creation.Key words: China, productivity, property rights, time use.摘要：作为全国性试验的一部分，2008年成都市进行了产权改革，包括对所有土地进行注册和度量以便于转让和消除移民限制。本文采用双重差分法对国家统计局的定期住户调查数据进行实证分析，结果表明产权改革增加了消费和收入，尤其是对那些不富裕和受教育程度较低的家庭，产权改革收益远高于实施成本。随着年轻人转向农业而老年人转向非农就业，劳动力的供给有所增加。产权改革还从以下三种渠道促进了农业产量和利润的增长，即：（i）租赁市场活动的增加将土地转向生产率更高的生产者；（ii）用购买投入代替劳动力；（iii）从谷物转向蔬菜、玉米和油料种子，这些都会提供更高水平的盈利能力。以上的结论与如下观点相一致：如果没有产权改革，要素市场的缺陷会破坏投资以及土地和劳动力市场的运作，阻碍高价值的城郊土地得到最有效的利用并减少就业机会。The evolution of the wage gap between rural migrants and the urban labour force in Chinese citiesAn increasing earning gap between rural migrants and urban residents has recently aroused public concern about rising urban poverty asscociated with migration of rural people into Chinese cities. To address the issue, this paper explores the possibility of wage assimilation for rural migrants towards their urban counterparts and its determinants between 1999 and 2009, by applying an economic assimilation model to analyse a repeated cross-sectional data for seven Chinese cites at the individual level. The results show that rural migrants’ earnings do not assimilate to their urban counterparts, although the situation improves gradually over time. This implies that institutional and policy barriers impede the assimilation process of rural migrants, which supports the call for further labour market reforms.Key words: institutional barriers, rural-to-urban migration, wage assimilation.摘要：最近，农村移民和城市居民之间的收入差距不断扩大，这引起了社会公众对中国农村人口向城市迁移而引起城市贫困问题的关注。为了解决这一问题，本文使用经济同化模型分析了中国七个城市个体层面的多个横截面数据，研究了1999年至2009年农村移民向城市居民的工资同化的可能性及其决定性因素。研究结果表明，尽管随着时间的推移这种情况逐渐改善，但农村移民的收入与城市居民的收入并不相称。这表明制度和政策障碍阻碍了农村移民的同化，从而进一步支持了劳动力市场改革的呼声。Measuring agricultural total factor productivity in China: pattern and drivers over the period of 1978-2016衡量中国农业全要素生产率：1978-2016年的模式和驱动因素Yu Sheng, Xiaohui Tian, Weiqing Qiao, Chao PengThe Chinese agricultural sector has experienced a substantial increase in total output since dramatic reforms were introduced in 1978. This paper uses the index method to measure agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) for China’s crop and livestock industries, based on the gross output model from 1978 to 2016. We construct production accounts for the industries using input-output relationships for the 26 main agricultural commodities and commodity groups, which account for over 90 percent of the total agricultural inputs and outputs. The results show that China’s agricultural TFP grew at a rate of approximately 2.4 per cent a year before 2009, which is comparable to the main OECD countries and is double the world average. TFP growth accounts for approximately 40 per cent of output growth, suggesting that input growth was the main driver of output growth in the past. However, average productivity growth slowed down after 2009 though it has gradually recovered since 2012. The slowdown reflects the emerging challenges to existing farm production practices in Chinese agriculture, suggesting the need for further institutional reform.Key words: agricultural TFP, China, index method, institutional reform.摘要：自1978年农村改革以来，中国农业部门的生产总值取得了大幅增长。本文基于1978年至2016年总产出模型，使用指数法来测量中国农作物和畜牧业的全要素生产率（TFP）。本文使用26种主要农产品和产品分类的投入产出关系（这占农业总投入产出90%以上）构建行业的生产账户。研究结果显示，在2009年前中国农业的全要素生产率以每年大约2.4%的速率增长，与主要的经合组织（OECD）国家增速相当，是世界平均水平的两倍。全要素生产率的增长大约占总产出增长的40%，这表明在过去投入增长是产出增长的主要驱动力。然而，2009年之后平均生产率的增速有所放缓，但在2012年后又逐渐恢复。这种增速放缓反应了中国农业现有的农业生产方式所面临的新挑战，表明有必要进行进一步的制度改革。关键词：农业全要素生产率，中国，指数法，制度改革。Four decades of China’s agricultural extension reform and its impact on agents’ time allocation中国农业推广改革的四十年及其对代理商时间分配的影响Jinyang Cai, Yao Jia, Ruifa Hu, Chao ZhangThe Chinese Government has initiated a series of agricultural reforms since the 1970s to encourage agents to provide more services to farmers. In 2006, a new round of agricultural reforms was extended nationwide; however, the effectiveness of these reforms has not been examined. Based on a comparison of survey data sets before and after the reforms, we found that overall they significantly increased the time agents spend on agricultural extension services, although their effectiveness differs among three major components of the reforms. While the financial assurance reform had little impact on agents’ time allocation, the administrative reform actually reduced the time allocation to agricultural extension. However, we found strong evidence that the ‘three rights’ management reform (comprising the rights of personnel, financial and asset management) successfully increased agents’ time allocation to agricultural extension services. We also found that institutional incentives and the Government’s investment did not increase the time agents spent on agricultural extension. The lack of incentives is a problem that needs to be addressed in future reforms. We found that professional agents spent more time providing extension services than their non-professional counterparts. We suggest that local Governments should avoid recruiting nonprofessional agents into agricultural extension stations.Key words: administrative reform, agent, agricultural extension, China, ‘three rights’ Reform.摘要：自20世纪70年代以来，中国政府进行了一系列农村改革，旨在鼓励代理商向农民提供更多的服务。2006年，新一轮的农业改革在全国范围内展开，但是这些改革的有效性并没有得到研究检验。通过对比改革前后的调查数据，本文发现虽然改革的有效性在三大改革中会有所不同，但是改革政策总体上提高了代理商在农业推广服务上所花费的时间。尽管金融保险改革对代理商时间分配影响不大，但是行政改革实际上减少了农业推广的时间分配。然而，有力的证据表明“三权”管理改革（包括人事、金融、资产管理）成功地增加了代理商对农业推广服务的时间分配。本文还发现制度激励和政府投资并没有增加代理商在农业推广上所花费的时间，缺乏激励是未来改革中需要解决的问题。本文发现与非专业的代理商相比，专业的代理商在提供推广服务上会花费更多的时间，因此本文建议当地政府应该避免雇佣非专业的代理商进入农业推广站。关键词：行政改革，代理商，农业推广，中国，“三权”改革。Forty years of irrigation development and reform in ChinaJinxia Wang, Yunyun Zhu, Tianhe Sun, Jikun Huang, Lijuan Zhang, Baozhu Guan, Qiuqiong Huang
This study reviews 40 years of irrigation development in China including the transformation of the institutional and incentive structures in irrigation management. After rural reforms in the 1970s, irrigation investments slowed until the late 1990s. In North China, farmers became major investors in groundwater irrigation, leading to property rights’ transfer of tube wells from collective to private ownership. Despite positive effects in cropping patterns, farmer income and development of groundwater markets, privatisation has accelerated groundwater table deterioration. Since the middle of 1990s, Water User Associations have replaced village collective management of surface irrigation. This approach was adopted by most provinces by early 2001 with mixed results; only institutions with water-saving incentives realised efficient irrigation. The Government is reforming water price policies to provide water-saving incentives to farmers while not hurting their income. While China has focused on water rights and markets, and despite regulations and pilot projects, full implementation of water rights has been slow. Research reveals greater policy scope for expanding irrigation technologies that generate real water saving to rural areas. Given pressure associated with water scarcity and concern for food security, further effective reforms in irrigation and policy incentives are expected. The Government has also initiated some pilot projects to resolve increasing water scarcity problems through adjusting agricultural production activities.Key words: China, incentive mechanisms, institutional innovation, irrigation development, irrigation technologies.摘要：本文回顾了中国灌溉发展的40年，包括灌溉管理制度和激励结构的转变。20世纪70年代农村改革后，直到90年代后期，灌溉投资才逐渐放缓。在中国北方，农民成为地下水灌溉的主要投资者，这导致管井产权从集体所有转为私人所有。尽管私有化对种植模式、农民收入和地下水市场的发展有积极正面影响，但是私有化已经加速地下水位的恶化。自上世纪90年代中期以来，农民用水协会已经取代了乡村对地面灌溉的集体管理。到2001年年初，大多数省份采用了这种方法，这导致了喜忧参半的后果；只有采取节水激励措施制度才能实现高效灌溉。政府正在改革水价政策，以在不损害农民收入的前提之下激励农民采取节水措施。尽管中国一直关注水权和水市场且有法律法规和试点项目，但水权的全面落实却很缓慢。研究表明，应当扩大灌溉技术范围的政策范围，这些技术能够为农村带来真正的节水效果。鉴于与水资源短缺相关的压力和对粮食安全的关注，灌溉及政策激励方面有望进一步有效改革。政府也已开展一些试点项目，通过调整农业生产活动来解决水资源日益短缺的问题。关键词：中国，激励机制，制度创新，灌溉发展，灌溉技术。Meat demand in China: to include or not to include meat away from home?Junfei Bai, James L. Seale Jr, Thomas I. WahlThis study examines meat consumption in China, the world’s largest meat consumer and producer, by considering both meat consumed at home and away from home based upon a diary-based household survey. The results indicate that income growth leads to beef, poultry, other meat and pork away from home consumption to grow more than proportionally to total meat consumption. We also find that meats consumed away from home grow faster than at home counterparts due to higher income elasticities, suggesting that ignoring meat away from home could significantly underestimate current and future meat consumption.Key words: demand analysis, consumer demand, China.摘要：本文通过基于日记的家庭调查数据，考虑家中就餐和外出就餐食用的肉类，研究了中国作为世界上最大的肉类消费和生产国的肉类消费情况。研究结果表明，收入增加会导致牛肉、家禽、其它肉类和猪肉的外出就餐消费增长（比在家消费的）更多，这与肉类消费总量是成比例的。同时，由于更高的收入弹性，外出就餐消费的肉类的增长速度快于在家消费肉类的增长速度，这表明忽略外出就餐消费的肉类会显著地低估当前和未来肉类的消费。Incentivising teachers? Evaluating the incentive effect of China’s teacher performance‐based compensation reform in rural China激励教师？对中国教师绩效的评估—基于中国农村的薪酬改革Jian Zhang, Songqing Jin, Wei Si
In this paper, we evaluate the incentive role of a teacher performance-based compensation reform in rural China. Using the value-added model widely adopted in the education literature, we first estimated the teacher effects on student academic scores with panel data of a large number of students and teachers from rural and urban schools in one county in a south-western province of China. The estimated teachers’ value-add was then allowed us to examine the effectiveness of the 2009 teachers’ compensation reform. We find that despite the strong intent of the performance-based compensation reform to improve student’s academic performance, teachers’ compensations are not closely tied to teachers’ value-add to student academic achievement. This suggests that the performance-based compensation reform is not able to provide strong incentives for teachers to raise students’ test scores and points towards the possible problems with the design and/or implementation of the reform.Key words: China, performance-based compensation reform, teachers, value-added model.摘要：本文估计了在中国农村教师绩效工资的改革对教师的激励作用。本文根据教育相关的文献中广泛采用的价值增值模型，首先使用了中国西南地区某个县中大量的城镇和乡村学校的学生和教师面板数据，估计了教师对学生成绩的影响。估计的教师增值可以检验2009年教师绩效工资改革的效果。本文发现，尽管绩效工资改革旨在提高学生成绩，但是教师工资与教师为学生成绩带来的增加值并没有紧密联系。这表明绩效工资改革无法为教师提高学生成绩提供强有力的动力，并指出了绩效工资改革设计和实施过程中可能存在的问题。The returns to education in rural China: Some new estimatesChengfang Liu, Ye Li, Shaoping Li, Renfu Luo, Linxiu Zhang, Scott Rozelle, Spencer Hagist, Jack Hou
We estimate the rates of return to education in rural China using primary survey data collected in 2016. Estimated average returns to education are 3.1 per cent. However, careful statistical analysis is required when estimating the returns to education. The paper demonstrates that when employment interruptions are accounted for, the measured returns to education rise. Our results also confirm that mismeasurement of the wage rate by using an hourly wage rate (versus daily or monthly earnings) raises the estimation of rates of return to education. Finally, our results suggest that the return to education is nonlinear in education levels but only when it reaches the tertiary level.Key words: experience, mismeasurement, off-farm employment, return to education, rural China.摘要：本文使用2016年的初次调查数据，估计了中国农村教育回报率，估计的平均教育回报率为3.1%。但是，在估计教育回报率时应当进行严格的统计分析。本文的研究表明，如果考虑就业中断的因素，教育回报率会上升。同时，使用小时工资率（相对于日工资或月工资）会错误地衡量工资率，进而使教育回报率的估计结果上升。最后，本文的估计结果表明只有在达到高等教育的水平时，教育回报率在教育水平上是非线性的。关键词：经验；测量不当；非农就业；教育回报率；中国农村。China’s poverty alleviation over the last 40 years: successes and challengesMingyue Liu, Xiaolong Feng, Sangui Wang, Huanguang Qiu
Over the past 40 years, China has made significant progress towards its poverty alleviation goals. The rural population under the current poverty line has decreased by 739.9 million. China has contributed to more than 70 per cent of world poverty reduction. To better promote the new anti-poverty strategy and to serve as a reference for poverty alleviation in other developing countries, this paper summarises the main experiences of China’s poverty alleviation over the past 40 years and then discusses the challenges associated with implementing the targeted poverty alleviation policy in the new era. China’s experience with poverty alleviation includes developmentoriented poverty alleviation, improving self-development capabilities of the poor population, encouraging multiple subjects to participate in poverty alleviation and focusing on innovation and ways to improve poverty alleviation. Although China’s poverty alleviation initiatives have achieved significant successes, there are still several challenges that should be of concern in the coming years, such as the diminishing marginal effect of financial inputs on poverty alleviation, the resulting negative incentives for the poor to improve their internal motivations and the insufficient participation of markets and social forces in poverty alleviation. Given these challenges, this paper provides suggestions for anti-poverty policies beyond 2020.Key words: challenges, China, poverty alleviation, targeted anti-poverty strategy.摘要：在过去的40年中，中国在实现脱贫目标方面取得了重大进步，现行贫困标准下农村贫困人口减少了7.399亿，为世界减贫事业做出了超过70%的贡献。为了更好地宣传新的扶贫战略，并为其它发展中国家提供中国参考，本文总结了中国扶贫40年来的主要经验，讨论了在新时代实施精准扶贫政策所面临的挑战。中国的扶贫经验包括：以发展为导向的扶贫、提升贫困人口的自我发展能力、鼓励多个主体参与扶贫以及注重创新和改善脱贫的方式。虽然中国的脱贫举措已经取得了巨大的成就，但是在未来仍需关注一些挑战，例如财政投入对脱贫的边际效应逐渐减弱、由此产生的对贫困人口改善其内在脱贫动机的负面激励以及市场和社会的力量在扶贫工作中参与不足。基于以上挑战，本文为2020年以后的反贫困政策提供了建议。Do Chinese farmers benefit from farmland leasing choices? Evidence from a nationwide survey中国农民会从农地租赁选择中受益吗？来自全国范围调查的证据Baoling Zou, Ashok K. Mishra, Biliang Luo
Using China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study investigates factors associated with the choice of farmland leasing strategies and the impact of leasing options on farm performance. Particular attention is given to off-farm employment and farm subsidies. Additionally, the study applies a selectivity-based approach to assess the relationship between farmland leasing choices and farm businesses’ performance. Off-farm employment, older and educated operators, large farms and old-age pension plans increase the likelihood of leasing out farmland. Part-time off-farm employment, grain subsidies and mechanised farms increase the likelihood of leasing in farmland. Finally, the selectivity correction terms in the value of crop production are significantly negative in the choices of farmland leasing, indicating the presence of sample selection effects. Accounting for selectivity is essential to ensure unbiased and consistent estimates.Key words: farmland leasing, value of crop production, selectivity correction, Bourguignon-Fournier-Gurgand method.摘要：本文采用中国家庭追踪调查数据（CFPS）调查研究了与农地租赁策略选择有关的因素以及租赁选择对农业绩效的影响。本文特别关注了非农就业与农业补贴。另外，本文采用了基于选择性的方法对农地租赁选择与农场经营绩效之间的关系进行评估。本文发现，非农就业、受过教育且年龄越大的经营者、大型农场和老年退休金计划增加了出租农地的可能性。兼职非农就业、粮食补贴以及农场机械化提高了租赁农地的可能性。最后，在农地租赁的选择中，粮食生产价值的选择性修正项显著为负，这表明存在样本选择效应，而解释该选择性对确保估计结果的无偏性与一致性至关重要。关键词：农地租赁，粮食生产价值，选择性修正，Bourguignon-Fournier-Gurgand方法。Optimal financing and operation strategy of fresh agricultural supply chainBo Yan, Gaodi Liu, Zhenyu Zhang, Chang Yan
Increased market demand and expanded scales of production of fresh agricultural products by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have highlighted the challenge of funding sufficient infrastructure. Additional costs to improve the freshness of produce makes the optimal financial and operational policies different for these enterprises. On the basis of the characteristics of the fresh agricultural supply chain, this paper analyses the financing strategies adopted by SMEs and obtains optimal operational and financing strategies for SMEs in six different situations. The analysis shows that the optimal level of financing by SMEs is not only affected by the financing rate, but also negatively related to the freshness effort cost coefficient, and is positively related to the sensitivity coefficient of market freshness. Moreover, although the cost of improving the freshness level of the producte is only borne by the SME, the supply chain cannot maximise profit from the optimal financial strategies of SMEs. Shouldering the fresh effort cost also lessens the optimal financing requirement of the SME compared with that of the entire supply chain. The difference is affected by the fresh effort cost coefficient.Key words: fresh agricultural product, supply chain management, joint production, financing decision.摘要：中小型企业（SME）市场需求的增加和生鲜农产品生产规模的扩大，凸显了为充足的基础设施提供资金的挑战。改善农产品新鲜程度的额外成本使这些企业的最优融资和经营战略有所不同。基于生鲜农产品供应链的特点，本文分析了中小型企业采用的融资战略，获得了在六种不同情况下中小型企业的最优经营和融资战略。分析结果表明，中小型企业的最优融资水平不仅受到融资率的影响，还与维持农产品新鲜程度所花费成本的相关系数呈负相关，并且与市场新鲜度的敏感性系数呈正相关。此外，虽然提高产品新鲜程度的成本仅由中小型企业承担，但是供应链无法从中小型企业的最优融资战略中获得最大利润。与整个供应链相比，承担农产品新鲜程度的成本也降低了中小企业的最优融资需求。这种差异受到维持农产品新鲜程度成本系数的影响。关键词：生鲜农产品，供应链管理，联合生产，融资决策。Willingness to accept compensation for land fallowing: results from a survey of village representatives in Northern China土地休耕补偿受偿意愿：来自中国华北村庄代表的一项调查结果Alec Zuo, Jinxia Wang, Qiuqiong Huang
Economic instruments have been increasingly adopted by governments around the world to address water scarcity problems because of their potential to achieve environmental outcomes in more cost-effective ways. This is the first study to estimate the willingness to accept compensation for land fallowing in rural China. Using survey data collected from village representatives in Northern China (mainly village leaders, party secretaries and village accountants), our results suggest that in groundwater irrigated sample villages, at least 28 per cent of respondents have a compensation expectation lower than the standard level of 500 yuan/mu/year for one season of fallowing set by the Government. Water scarcity measures such as irrigation supply reliability and depth-to-groundwater within a village are found to have statistically significant effects on the likelihood of fallowing land in groundwater irrigated villages.Key words: contingent valuation method, land fallowing, Northern China, willingness to accept.摘要：世界各国政府越来越多地采用经济手段来解决水资源短缺的问题，这是因为它们有能够以更具成本效益的方式取得环境成果的潜力。本文是估计在中国农村对农地休耕补偿受偿意愿的第一项研究。本文采用了中国北方村庄代表（主要是村领导、村党委书记和村会计人员）的调查数据，研究发现在地下水灌溉的样本村庄中，至少有28%的受访者的补偿期望值低于政府规定的一季休耕500元/亩/年的标准水平。在村庄中，如灌溉供给可靠性和地下水埋深等水资源短缺措施对地下水灌溉村庄的休耕可能性具有显著的影响。关键词：意愿调查法，土地休耕，华北地区，受偿意愿。Land size and productivity in the livestock sector: evidence from pastoral areas in ChinaFang Xia, Lingling Hou, Songqing Jin, Dongqing Li
This article explores the relationship between land size and productivity in the livestock sector. Household panel data from pastoral areas in northwestern China were analysed. Results suggest an inverse relationship (IR) between land size and the number of livestock per ha. IR can be largely explained by labour input intensity, which is negatively correlated with land size. We find that household’s labour demand is not separable from household’s labour supply and households’ decisions to rent land and hire labour for grazing are significantly related to the labour–land endowment ratio. These findings are consistent with the Chayanovian explanation that labour input intensity varies with farm size due to unobserved interhousehold variation in shadow wage rates. In addition, participation in the labour market does not significantly influence the IR for the employer, while the practice of land renting reduces, but does not eliminate, the IR for the lease. These findings point towards the potential for using factor markets to optimise pasture-based livestock production scale, and the need to promote the factor market development to achieve efficiency in resource use.Key words: China, grassland, inverse relationship, labour market, land rental market, livestock摘要：本文采用西北牧场地区家庭面板数据，研究了畜牧业土地面积与生产力之间的关系。研究结果显示，土地面积与每公顷的畜牧量之间存在着反向关系（IR）。这种反向关系在很大程度上可以由劳动强度投入来解释，因为劳动强度投入与土地面积呈负相关。本文发现，家庭的劳动力需求与家庭劳动力供给是密不可分的，并且家庭为放牧而租用土地和雇佣劳动力的决定在很大程度上与劳动-土地禀赋比率相关。这些发现与Chayanovian的解释一致，即由于未能观测到家庭内部影子工资的变化，劳动投入强度会随农场面积变化而变化。此外，对雇主来说，参与劳动力市场并没有显著影响其反向关系，而土地租用的做法会减少但是并不会消除这种反向关系。这些发现表明，使用要素市场来优化基于牧场的牲畜生产规模的潜力，以及促进要素市场发展以实现资源有效利用。关键词：中国，草原，反向关系，劳动力市场，土地租赁市场，畜牧业。Internet Use, Sustainable Agricultural Practices and Rural Incomes: Evidence from China互联网使用，可持续农业实践和农村收入：来自中国的证据Wanglin Ma, Xiaobing Wang
Relatively little is known about the association between Internet use and environmentally-friendly agricultural innovation adoption. To fill this void, this study examines the impact of Internet use on the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs) and their heterogeneous effects on farm income and household income. Unlike previous studies that analyse the dichotomous decision of agricultural innovation adoption, this study captures the number of SAPs adopted. We apply both endogenous-treatment Poisson regression model and unconditional quantile regression model to analyse unique farm-level data collected from China. The empirical results show that Internet use exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on the number of SAPs adopted, and the joint effects of Internet use and SAP adoption on farm income and household income are heterogeneous. In particular, we show that Internet use has a larger impact at the upper tail of household income but it has no significant impact on farm income. SAP adoption is negatively associated with farm income and household income across the selected quantiles.Key words: Internet use, Sustainable agricultural practices, Impact evaluation, Unconditional quantile regression, Rural incomes, China.摘要：现有文献关于互联网使用与环境友好型农业创新之间联系的研究较少，为了填补这一空白，本文研究了互联网的使用对可持续农业实践（SAPs）的影响以及对农场收入和家庭收入的异质性影响。不同于以往的研究分析农业创新的二元决策，本文使用了采用的SAPs数量。同时，本文使用内生性处理的泊松回归模型和无条件分位数回归模型来分析来自中国特有的农场层面数据。实证结果表明，互联网的使用会对采用的SAPs数量产生正向的显著影响，互联网的使用和SAP的采用对农场收入和家庭收入的共同影响是异质性的。具体来说，本文发现互联网使用对家庭收入有更大的右尾影响，但对农场收入却没有显著影响。在选定的分位数中，SAP的采用与农场收入和家庭收入呈负相关。关键词：互联网使用、可持续农业实践、影响评价、无条件分位数回归、农村收入、中国。Effects of local and national advertising across brands: the case of yogurt in China品牌间地方性广告和全国性广告的影响：以中国酸奶为例Bo Chen, Wuyang Hu, Qingjie Zhou
This study examines Chinese consumer’s demand for yogurt and evaluates the effect of advertising on yogurt demand in four first-tier cities in China. An almost ideal demand system augmented with advertising is estimated, and advertising on local media channels is distinguished from that on national media channels. The main findings are that Chinese demand for yogurt is generally elastic, yet local brands tend to have smallest own-price elasticities. More importantly, while local advertising has generally a positive effect on yogurt demand, national advertising is found to decrease demand in Beijing and Guangzhou. This may be due to households’ distinct media preference across cities, as well as advertising cannibalisation within brand. Lastly, advertising one yogurt brand may function similarly as generic advertising in promoting demand for yogurt with other brands. Corresponding marketing implications are drawn for yogurt manufacturers and marketers.Key words: advertising, demand system, local, national, yogurt.摘要：本文研究了中国消费者对酸奶的需求，并且评估了中国四个一线城市的广告宣传对酸奶需求的影响。本文估计了一个几乎理想的广告需求系统，并且在当地媒体上投放的广告不同于在全国性媒体上投放的广告。本文的主要发现是中国对酸奶的需求总体上是具有弹性的，但本土品牌往往拥有最小的自身价格弹性。更重要的是，虽然本地广告通常对酸奶需求有正向影响，但是全国性广告减少了北京和广州的酸奶需求，这可能是由于家庭对不同城市媒体的偏好不同，以及品牌内部的广告蚕食。最后，一种酸奶品牌的广告可能与一般广告在促进其它品牌的酸奶需求方面具有相似的作用。本文据此得出了对酸奶制造商和销售商相应的市场建议。Farm machinery use and maize yields in China: an analysis accounting for selection bias and heterogeneity中国农业机械的使用和玉米产量：选择性偏误与异质性分析Xiaoshi Zhou, Wanglin Ma, Gucheng Li, Huanguang QiuCrop production in developing and emerging countries is increasingly dependent on the usage of farm machinery. However, it remains unclear whether low-productive and high-productive farmers benefit equally from farm machinery use. To address the research gap, this study examines the potential heterogeneous effects of farm machinery use on maize yields, using an unconditional quantile regression model and survey data from China. We employ a control function approach to address the selection bias issue associated with farm machinery use. The empirical results show that the use of farm machinery significant increases maize yields for all the selected quantiles (except for the 80th quantile); the low-productive farmers tend to benefit more from farm machinery use relative to their high-productive counterparts; and farm machinery use reduces the inequality and variability of maize yields.Key words: farm machinery use, maize yield, UQR model, control function approach, China.摘要：发展中国家和新型国家的粮食产量日益依赖于农业机械的使用。然而，低产农户和高产农户能否平等地从农业机械的使用中受益，目前尚不清楚。为了弥补现有研究的足，本文基于来自中国的调查数据，采用无条件分位数回归模型实证研究了农业机械的使用对玉米产量的潜在异质性影响。本文使用控制函数法（CFA）来处理与农业机械使用相关的选择性偏误问题。实证结果表明：农业机械的使用在所有选择的分位数上显著地提高了玉米产量（除了第80个分位数）；与高产农户相比，低产农户往往从使用农业机械中受益更多；农业机械的使用会减少玉米产量的不平等和易变性。关键词：农业机械使用，玉米产量，UQR模型，控制函数法，中国。Agricultural subsidies retard urbanization in ChinaKaixing Huang, Wenshou Yan, Jikun Huang
Although agricultural subsidies are usually seen in high-income countries with small agricultural labour forces, China started to heavily subsidise agriculture when its percapita income was very low and more than half of its population was working in agriculture. A concern is that these abnormal agricultural subsidies may have significantly retarded China’s urbanisation process by reducing rural–urban migration. Based on a panel of county-level data from 1,878 Chinese counties, we found that agricultural subsidies reduced China’s yearly outflow of agricultural labour by 0.68 million people (with a 95 per cent confidence interval of 0.67–0.69) – about 5.7 per cent of the annual rural–urban migration observed during the sample period. We concluded that abnormal agricultural subsidies are a significant cause of China’s widely observed under-urbanisation.Key words: agricultural subsidies, rural, urban migration, urbanisation.摘要：虽然农业劳动力较少的高收入国家经常采用农业补贴，但是中国在人均收入很低并且农业劳动力占总人口超过半数时就开始大力补贴农业。令人担忧的是，这些异常的农业补贴可能会通过减少农村向城市的移民进而极大地阻碍中国的城市化进程。本文基于中国1878个县的县级面板数据，研究发现农业补贴每年会减少68万的农业劳动力外流（95%的置信区间为0.67-0.69），大约占样本观测期间每年农村向城市移民的5.7%。因此本文得出如下结论，异常的农业补贴是导致中国城市化程度不足的重要原因之一。The effect of price support policies on food security and farmers’ income in ChinaJiarong Qian, Shoichi Ito, Zhijun Zhao
The current price support policies in China have positive impacts on grain prices and production costs. These policies mediate the impacts on grain supply and demand, and, in turn, affect food security and farmer income. This paper simulates and empirically establishes the effect of price support policies on food security and farmers’ net incomes through a partial equilibrium model that considers the policy impact mechanism. The results indicate that a 10 per cent support price increase in 2012 may result in (1) an increase of 1.38 and 6.19 percentage points in self-sufficiency rates for rice and wheat, respectively, in the current year and (2) a respective increase of 28.6 and − 18.5 yuan/mu in net income for rice and wheat production in the year. Given the significant growth in grain support prices since 2008, the price support policies have produced a tremendous impact in terms of enhancing grain self-sufficiency, while playing a crucial role in China’s food security strategies. However, due to the increased production costs associated with policy implementation, the income effect of the price support policies is rather small and even negative for wheat production. Hence, increasing farmers’ incomes should rely on other effective measures, such as providing income subsidies.Key words: food security, farmers’ income, partial equilibrium, price support, simulation.摘要：中国目前的价格支持政策对粮食价格和生产成本带来了正面影响，这些政策能够调节粮食供求，进而影响粮食安全和农民收入。本文通过政策影响机制的局部均衡模型，模拟并实证分析了价格支持政策对粮食安全和农民净收入的影响。研究结果表明，2012年支持价格上涨10%会导致（1）近年稻米和小麦的自给率分别上涨1.38和6.19个百分点（2）稻米和小麦的年度净收入分别上涨28.6元每亩和18.5元每亩。自2008年以来粮食支持价格大幅上涨，价格支持政策在提高粮食自给率方面产生了显著的影响，并且在中国的粮食安全战略中发挥着至关重要的作用。然而，由于与政策实施相关的生产成本提高，价格支持政策对收入的影响很小，甚至会抑制小麦的生产。因此，应该通过提供收入补贴等其它有效手段来提高农民收入。关键词：粮食安全，农民收入，局部均衡，价格支持，模拟。四、《澳洲农业与资源经济学》2020年期刊目录汇总
注：“中国学者”指工作单位在国内的学者，“华人学者“指工作单位在国外的学者。
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
翻译 | 陈泽
审核 | 张惠茹 沈梦露
排版编辑丨青酱
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━