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学术前沿 | AJAE2020、2021“新冠”文章汇总
启研学社由知名学者担任学术顾问，高校师生与企研数据科学团队联合组建，以大数据资源及相关技术助力中国学术与智库研究为宗旨的研究组织。团队当前的主要目标是挖掘经济社会大数据资源在学术和智库领域的应用价值，开展学术大数据治理研究，以及探索大数据分析技术融入中国经济社会研究的可行进路。
截至发稿前，AJAE上总刊登了7篇“新冠”文章，其中5篇关注了新冠对食品市场的影响，1篇聚焦了新冠对（依靠移民汇款的）家庭收支的影响，1篇考察了美国的农业部门状况。
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COVID‐19 and Supply Chain Disruption: Evidence from Food Markets in India
Kanika Mahajan
Shekhar Tomar
First published: 04 October 2020
文章链接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajae.12158
Abstract
This paper looks at the disruption in food supply chains due to COVID‐19 induced economic shutdown in India. We use a novel dataset from one of the largest online grocery retailers to look at the impact on product stockouts and prices. We find that product availability falls by 10% for vegetables, fruits, and edible oils, but there is a minimal impact on their prices. On the farm‐gate side, it is matched by a 20% fall in quantity arrivals of vegetables and fruits. We then show that supply chain disruption is the main driver behind this fall. We compute the distance to production zones from our retail centers and find that the fall in product availability and quantity arrivals is larger for items that are cultivated or manufactured farther from the final point of sale. Our results show that long‐distance food supply chains have been hit the hardest during the current pandemic with welfare consequences for urban consumers and farmers.Key words
COVID-19;food;online retail data;prices;supply chain disruptions翻译（仅供参考）
COVID - 19与供应链中断:基于印度食品市场的证据
摘要
这篇论文研究了COVID - 19导致的印度经济停摆对食品供应链造成的破坏。我们使用了最大的在线杂货零售商之一的最新数据集来研究新冠造成的经济停摆（lockdown）对产品缺货和价格的影响。我们发现，新冠造成的经济停摆（lockdown）使蔬菜、水果和食用油的供应水平下降了10%，但对其价格的影响很小。对于农场交货端（farm-gate side，farm-gate price：农场交货价格）而言，与此相对应的是，蔬菜和水果的到货数量下降了20%。之后我们发现，供应链中断是数量下降的主要驱动因素。我们计算了从零售中心到生产区的距离，发现在离最终销售点更远的地方种植或制造的商品，其货物供应水平和到货数量的下降幅度更大。我们的研究结果表明，在当前新冠肺炎大流行期间，长途食品供应链受到的冲击最大，影响到了城市和乡村消费者的福利。关键词
COVID-19；食品；在线零售数据；价格；供应链中断COVID‐19 and the Demand for Online Food Shopping Services: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan
Hung‐Hao Chang
Chad D. Meyerhoefer
First published: 05 November 2020
Abstract
We investigate how the coronavirus pandemic affected the demand for online food shopping services using data from the largest agri‐food e‐commerce platform in Taiwan. We find that an additional confirmed case of COVID‐19 increased sales by 5.7% and the number of customers by 4.9%. The demand for grains, fresh fruit and vegetables, and frozen foods increased the most, which benefited small farms over agribusinesses. The variety of products sold on the e‐commerce platform also increased during the pandemic, which suggests the concentration of sales on niche products could increase as more consumers are drawn to online platforms. Our investigation of mechanisms for the shift to online food shopping indicates that sales were highly responsive to COVID‐19 media coverage and online content.Key words
Coronavirus;COVID‐19;e‐commerce;food demand;online food shopping翻译（仅供参考）：
COVID - 19与网购食品服务需求:基于台湾的经验证据
摘要
利用台湾最大的农业食品电子商务平台的数据，我们调查了新冠肺炎大流行对网络食品购物服务需求的影响。我们发现，COVID‐19的确诊病例增加了5.7%的网上销售额和4.9%的网购客户数量。对谷物、新鲜水果和蔬菜以及冷冻食品的需求增长最快，这使小型农场受益，而非农业综合企业。在大流行期间，电子商务平台上销售的产品种类也有所增加，这表明随着更多的消费者被吸引到网络平台上，细分产品（niche products）可能会增加。我们对食品销售向网上购物转变的机制调查表明，网上销售额对COVID‐19的媒体报道和相关网络内容反应强烈。关键词
冠状病毒；COVID-19；电子商务；食品需求；网上食品购物COVID‐19 Induced Stigma in U.S. Consumers: Evidence and Implications
Brandon R. McFadden
Trey Malone
Maik Kecinski
Kent D. Messer
First published: 21 December 2020
Abstract
Though both the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration claim that there is no evidence that handling and consuming food causes COVID‐19, many consumers may not be convinced. To assess concerns about potential COVID‐19 transmission from food, we surveyed more than 3,000 consumers in May, June, and July of 2020 using a nationally representative panel. Despite evidence to the contrary, consumers express multiple concerns about their food and how and where it is served and transmission of the virus. Between concerns about transmission of COVID‐19 while shopping for food versus consuming food, more consumers were concerned about exposure while shopping; however, the number of consumers concerned about transmission from consuming food steadily increased over the months of data collection. We also found that Black respondents were more concerned about COVID‐19 transmission from certain staple foods, suggesting that COVID‐19 could intensify standing racial inequities related to nutrition and health. Overall, these findings suggest that we may be observing the early stages of evolving food stigmas that could persist in the future and reshape how U.S. consumers shop for food and the foods they consume.Key words
COVID-19;food at home;food away from home;food consumption;food retailing;food stigma;racial disparities翻译（仅供参考）：
COVID - 19引起美国消费者对食品的非议:证据和影响
摘要
尽管美国疾病控制与预防中心(U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)和美国食品和药物管理局(Food and Drug Administration)都声称，没有证据表明处理和食用食物会导致COVID - 19感染，但许多消费者可能并不信服。为了评估食品可能传播COVID-19这一问题，我们在2020年5月、6月和7月使用具有全国代表性的小组调查了3000多名消费者。尽管有相反的证据，但消费者对他们的食物、食物的供应方式和地点以及病毒的传播表达了多种担忧。在购买食品与消费食品时对COVID - 19传播的担忧之间，更多的消费者担心在选购食物时接触到COVID-19；但在收集数据的几个月中，担心食用食物传播的消费者数量稳步上升。我们还发现，黑人受访者更担心COVID - 19病毒从某些主食中传播，这表明COVID - 19可能加剧与营养和健康相关的长期种族不平等。总的来说，这些发现表明，我们注意到对食品的非议正处于早期阶段，可能会在未来持续存在，并重塑美国消费者购买食品和消费食品的方式。关键词
COVID-19；居家就餐；在外就餐；食品消费；食品零售；食品非议；种族差异Economic Impacts of the COVID−19 Lockdown in a Remittance‐Dependent Region
Anubhab Gupta
Heng Zhu
Miki Khanh Doan
Aleksandr Michuda
Binoy Majumder
First published: 07 December 2020
Abstract
The economic impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns on poor and vulnerable households living in rural areas of developing countries are not well understood due to a lack of detailed micro-survey data at the household level. Utilizing weekly financial transaction data collected from households residing in a rural region of India, we estimate the impacts of India’s COVID-19 lockdown on household income, food security, welfare, and access to local loan markets. A large portion of households living in our study region is reliant on remittances from migrants to sustain their livelihoods. Our analysis reveals that in the month immediately after India’s lockdown announcement, weekly household local income fell by INR 1,022 (US$ 13.5), an 88% drop compared to the long-term average with another 63% reduction in remittance. In response to the massive loss in earnings, households substantially reduced meal portions and consumed fewer food items. Impacts were heterogeneous; households in lower income quantiles lost a higher percentage of their income and expenditures, but government food aid slightly mitigated the negative impacts. We also find an increase in the effective interest rate of local borrowing in cash and a higher demand for in-kind loans, which are likely to have an adverse effect on households who rely on such services. The results from this paper have immediate relevance to policymakers considering additional lockdowns as the COVID-19 pandemic resurges around the globe and to governments thinking about responses to future pandemics that may occur.Key words
COVID-19;financial diaries;lockdown;migration;poverty;remittances翻译（仅供参考）：
COVID - 19封城对汇款依赖地的经济影响
摘要
由于缺乏家庭层面的详细微观调查数据，人们不太了解新冠肺炎对生活在发展中国家农村地区的贫困和弱势家庭的经济影响。利用从印度农村地区住户家收集的每周财务交易数据，我们估计了印度COVID-19 对家庭收入、食品安全、福利和当地贷款市场准入条件的影响。生活在我们研究区域的很大一部分家庭依靠移民的汇款来维持生计。我们的分析显示，在印度宣布封锁后的一个月内，每周家庭当地收入减少了1 022印度卢比（13.5美元），与长期平均水平相比下降了88%，汇款也减少了63%。为了应对收入的巨大损失，家庭大幅减少了饭菜的份量，并减少了食品的消费。影响存在一定的异质性；低收入家庭损失的收入和支出比例较高，但政府粮食援助略微减轻了负面影响。家庭损失的收入和支出比例较高，但政府粮食援助略微减轻了负面影响。为了应对收入的巨大损失，家庭大幅减少了饭菜的份量，并减少了食品的消费。影响存在一定的异质性；收入较低的家庭损失的收入和支出的比例较高，但政府的粮食援助略微减轻了负面影响。我们还发现，当地现金借款的实际利率增加，对实物贷款的需求增加，这很可能对依赖此类服务的家庭产生不利影响。随着2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行在全球卷土重来，本文的结果对于考虑进一步封锁的政策制定者以及各国政府考虑应对未来可能发生的大流行具有直接意义。关键词
COVID-19；财务日记；封锁；移民；贫困；汇款Food Consumption and Food Security during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Addis Ababa
Kalle Hirvonen
Alan de Brauw
Gashaw T. Abate
First published: 23 February 2021
Abstract
International humanitarian organizations have expressed substantial concern about the potential for increases in food insecurity resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we use a unique panel survey of a representative distribution of households in Addis Ababa to study both food security and food consumption. In contrast to some other countries in the region, Ethiopia never went into a full lockdown severely restricting movement. Despite subjective income measures suggesting a large proportion of households have been exposed to job loss or reduced incomes, we find that relative to a survey conducted in August and September of 2019, food consumption and household dietary diversity are largely unchanged or slightly increased by August 2020. We find some changes in the composition of food consumption, but they are not related to shocks found in previous phone surveys conducted with the same households. The results therefore suggest the types of subjective questions about income typically being asked in COVID-19 phone surveys may not appropriately reflect the magnitude of such shocks. They also imply, at least indirectly, that in the aggregate food value chains have been resilient to the shock associated with the pandemic.Key words
COVID-19; Food security; Nutrition security; Food consumption翻译（仅供参考）：
COVID-19期间，（埃塞俄比亚首都）亚的斯亚贝巴的食品消费与食品安全
摘要
国际人道主义组织对COVID-19大流行病可能导致粮食不安全状况加剧表示深切关注。在这篇论文中，我们利用亚的斯亚贝巴一个具有代表性的家庭分布的独特小组调查来研究食品安全和食品消费。与该地区其他一些国家不同，埃塞俄比亚从未实行严格限制行动的全面封锁。尽管主观收入指标显示，很大一部分家庭面临失业或收入减少的风险，但我们发现，相对于2019年8月和9月进行的一项调查，到2020年8月，食品消费和家庭饮食多样性基本保持不变或略有增加。我们发现食品消费的构成发生了一些变化，但它们与之前对同一户家庭进行的电话调查中发现的冲击无关。因此，结果表明，在COVID-19电话调查中通常询问的有关收入的主观问题类型可能不能恰当地反映此类冲击的程度。它们还表明（至少是间接地表明）总体而言，食品价值链对与大流行相关的冲击具有弹性。关键词
COVID-19；食品安全；营养安全；食品消费Impact of COVID-19 and Nationwide Lockdowns on Vegetable Prices: Evidence from Wholesale Markets in China
Jianqing Ruan
Qingwen Cai
Songqing Jin
First published: 22 February 2021
Abstract
In this paper, we employ a combination of time regression discontinuity design method (T -RD) and the difference-in-difference method (DID) to identify and quantify the causal effects of the strict lockdown policy on vegetable prices using multiple-year daily price data from 151 wholesale markets of Chinese cabbage. We find that the lockdown policy caused a large and immediate surge in price and price dispersion of Chinese cabbage, though they fluctuated smoothly for the same period in normal years. The DID results further show that the price surge peaked in the 4th week of lockdown but gradually came down to the level of a normal year by week 11. However, the price rose again (though to a much smaller extent) in response to the resurgence of COVID-19 in a few provinces in early-mid April but quickly returned to the normal level in week 15 when the lockdown measures were largely removed. We also find that the supply chain disruption is the driving factor for the price hike. Policy implications are drawn.Keywords
China;Chinese cabbage;COVID-19;nationwide lockdown;price dispersion;time regression discontinuity design;vegetable price; wholesale markets翻译（仅供参考）：
COVID-19和全国停摆对蔬菜价格的影响:来自中国批发市场的证据
摘要
在本文中，我们结合时间断点回归（time regression discontinuity design，T -RD）和倍差法（DID），来识别和量化严格封锁政策对蔬菜价格的因果关系，采用多年151个大白菜批发市场的日价格数据。我们发现，封锁政策导致大白菜的价格和价格波动性立即大幅度上升，尽管它们在正常年份的同一时期内平稳波动。DID结果进一步表明，价格上涨在封锁的第4周达到峰值，但到第11周逐渐下降至正常水平。但是，由于4月中上旬个别省份COVID-19疫情重现，价格再次上涨（尽管幅度较小） ，但在基本取消封锁措施后，第15周时很快又恢复到正常水平。我们还发现，供应链中断是价格上涨的驱动因素。本文提出了相应政策。关键词
中国；大白菜；COVID-19；全国停摆；价格离散度；时间断点回归；蔬菜价格；批发市场The Importance of Agriculture in the Economy: Impacts from COVID-19
Jayson Beckman
Amanda M. Countryman
First published: 22 February 2021
文章链接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ajae.12212
Abstract
Much of the attention from COVID‐19 has been on the impacts on tourism and other service sectors; but there has been a growing interest in some agricultural and food topics, such as the decline in food away from home (FAFH) expenditures. Our work considers the importance of FAFH in the overall economy, and we also consider changes in agricultural production and trade that have occurred because of COVID‐19. We gather data on actual changes to these components, as well as similar shocks to non‐agricultural sectors, and employ a simulation model to estimate the impacts on gross domestic product (GDP). Results indicate that changes from agriculture due to COVID‐19 have had a larger effect on the overall U.S. economy than the share of agriculture in the economy at the beginning of COVID‐19. But the non‐agricultural shocks still outweigh the impacts from agriculture by a magnitude of 3. Breaking the results down along the components, we find that the loss in FAFH expenditures is the largest contributor to the change in GDP resulting from shocks to agricultural markets, and conclude that agricultural production/trade markets have been very resilient during the pandemic. Our results also indicate that our model (computable general equilibrium) does reasonably well in estimating GDP compared to actual changes due to the inclusion of data on actual demand, supply, and fiscal responses to COVID‐19.Keywords
agriculture;CGE;COVID-19;GDP;trade;unemployment翻译（仅供参考）：
农业在经济中的重要性：COVID-19的影响
摘要
COVID-19对旅游业和其他服务行业的影响一直是人们关注的焦点;但现在人们对一些农业和食品话题的兴趣正在提高，例如在外就餐(FAFH)消费支出的下降。我们的工作考虑了FAFH在整体经济中的重要性，同时也考虑了农业生产和贸易因新冠肺炎而产生的变化。我们收集了这些组成部分的实际变化数据，以及对非农业部门的类似冲击数据，并采用模拟模型来估计其对国内生产总值（GDP）的影响。
结果表明，COVID-19导致的来自农业的变化对美国整体经济的影响大于COVID-19开始时农业在经济中的比重。但非农业冲击仍然超过了来自农业的影响，幅度为3。将结果沿各部分分解，我们发现FAFH支出的损失是农业市场冲击导致GDP变化的最大贡献者，并得出结论，农业生产/贸易市场在大流行期间具有很强的弹性。我们的结果还表明，我们的模型（可计算一般均衡模型，computable general equilibrium）在估计GDP方面与实际变化相比表现得相当好，这是因为其中包含了实际需求、供应和财政对COVID-19的反应数据。
关键词
农业；一般均衡模型；COVID-19；GDP；贸易；失业END
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