政府如何推动新蛋白发展
【编者按】
一个具有“未来意义”的新兴行业的发展，离不开政府的助力， 有了各项政策的支持，行业发展会如虎添翼。本文详细讲述了新蛋白行业新兴伊始，各国政府的财政投入以及政策推动。
正文中列举了各政府机构对清洁能源的财政及政策支持，使得这个行业在10年当中有了卓越的发展，这个过程也让新蛋白行业的发展有了参照物。
作为专注新蛋白行业的影响力投资机构，道夫子也把新蛋白行业的生态建设作为工作重点，我们积极寻求和中国各地政府的合作，推动新蛋白行业的发展。
目前我们正计划的2023年首场“中国新生代好食品创业汇“，也是道夫子迄今为止举办的第7期创业汇，将和江苏省如皋市政府合作举办，活动将由中共如皋市委、如皋市人民政府主办，如皋市高新区和道夫子承办。如皋市是江苏历史文化名城，世界长寿之乡，全国实力百强县（市）2022年如皋排名23。政府代表将出席创业汇，道夫子创始人线上出席， 各路演企业，投资机构将进行线下交流。
详细参会信息会在近期放送，期待与您相见！
01
荷兰承诺用6000万欧元建立一个细胞农业基础设施，澳大利亚正在投资1.13亿美元，以加强澳大利亚在全球植物基食品价值链中的地位，丹麦正在拨款1.75亿美元用于研究、开发和生产植物基食品，加拿大、新加坡和以色列政府也都在资助类似的举措。
The Netherlands is promising €60M to build a cellular agriculture infrastructure. Australia is investing $113M to “supercharge Australia’s place in the global plant-based food value chain.” Denmark is allocating $175M to research, develop, and produce plant-based foods. Canada, Singapore, and Israel are all funding similar initiatives.
我们估计，世界各国政府目前已投入近10亿美元用于新蛋白的研究、基础设施建设和初创企业的支持（如下图）。他们仅在过去三年里就拨放了其中的大部分资金——目前丹麦、加拿大和澳大利亚的投入分别排名前三，新加坡和以色列排名分别是第六和第七。
We estimate that the world’s governments have now committed almost a billion dollars to alternative protein research, infrastructure, and startups (see chart below). They've committed most of this funding in just the last three years.
世界各大政府机构可能很快就会于此增加支出。从中国的新生物经济五年规划（2022年5月10日，国家发展改革委发布《“十四五”生物经济发展规划》。这是我国首部生物经济五年规划。）以及习近平总书记提出的观点看，中国要发展“新食品”，比如“人造蛋白”。根据白宫的一份简报称，美国将通过其新的生物技术计划，支持“通过细胞基培养生产的食品”。欧盟将“增加新蛋白的可用性和来源”视为其100亿欧元农业研究议程中的“关键研究领域”。
The world's biggest governments may soon spend more. China wants to “develop new foods such as ‘artificial protein',” per its new Bio economy five year plan and comments from President Xi. The US will support “foods made with cultured animal cells” through its new Biotechnology initiative, according to a White House briefing. And the European Union sees “increasing the availability and source of alternative proteins” as a “key area of research” under its €10B agricultural research agenda.
为何如此呢？
What's going?
分别来自好食品研究所（GFI)、农场动物投资风险与回报机构(FAIRR) 和新西兰新兴蛋白（Emerging Proteins NZ) 的三大新报告说明了三个主要因素。粮食安全似乎正在激励那些没有太多农田的国家去发展新蛋白，如新加坡、以色列和卡塔尔。从种植用于植物蛋白的作物中获利的机会，则激励着拥有大量农田的国家，如澳大利亚和加拿大。而气候问题似乎正在激励相关政治更激进的国家，特别是在欧洲。
Three great new reports — from the Good Food Institute, FAIRR, and Emerging Proteins NZ — identify three main forces at work. Food security seems to be motivating countries without much farmland, like Singapore, Israel, and Qatar. The opportunity to profit from growing the crops used in plant proteins seems to be motivating countries with lots of farmland, like Australia and Canada. And climate concerns seem to be motivating politically progressive countries, especially in Europe.
那么我们该如何加速和引导这样趋势? 但是第一，我们要知道，为什么我们首先需要政府的支持?
So what can we do to accelerate and direct this trend? But, first, why do we need government support in the first place?
[各政府对新蛋白下拨基金近10亿美元，来进行投资、基础设施建设和研究，以此来推动植物基、发酵基和替代动物产品的培养基的发展。
来源：GFI, FAIRR,Emerging Proteins NZ 和一些独立调研
Governments have now committed almost a billion dollars to investments, infrastructure, and research to advance plant-based, fermented, and cultivated alternatives to animal products. Sources: our estimates based on GFI, FAIRR, Emerging Proteins NZ, and independent research.]
02
新蛋白融资
Alternative Financing
直到最近，我们发现新蛋白似乎并不需要“政府急救”。凭借数十亿美金的销售额、全球最大的食品跨国公司的影响力以及近百亿美元的私人投资，使得该领域现金充裕。
Until recently, it seemed like alternative proteins might not need government aid. The space was awash with cash, thanks to billions in sales, the heft of the world’s largest food multinationals, and almost $10B in private investments.
但市场是多变的。植物肉的销售额正在下降：单去年美国零售渠道就下降了5%，全球范围内的降幅可能更大——Beyond Meat上季度的全球销售额约为去年同期的一半。(为什么?我推荐Michal Klar的这篇分析文章。) 一些食品跨国公司正在”撤退 ”: 全球最大的肉食品加工商JBS最近关闭了它在美国的植物肉事业部；无独有偶，加拿大肉类生产巨头Maple Leaf Foods —— 植物基品牌Lightlife和Field Roast的所有者，削减了25% 的植物基部门。( 雀巢和联合利华是明显的例外。) 而投资者，包括“影响力”类别的投资者，最近都在犹豫是否投资。
But markets are fickle. Plant-based meat sales are down: by 5% in US retail over the last year and possibly more globally — Beyond Meat’s international sales last quarter were about half what they were in the same quarter last year. (Why? I recommend Michal Klar’s analysis.) Some food multinationals are retreating: JBS recently shuttered its US plant-based meat arm, while Maple Leaf Foods, owner of Lightlife and Field Roast, cut 25% of its plant-protein division. (Nestle and Unilever are notable exceptions.) And investors, including the “impact” variety, are newly hesitant to invest.
政府无法解决销售面临的低迷，但他们可以增加新蛋白未来成功的几率。尤其，它们可以帮助解决新蛋白面临的三个最大挑战：
Governments can’t solve this downturn, but they can increase the odds of alternative proteins’ future success. In particular, they can help solve three of alternative proteins’ biggest challenges:
■ 一是成本。
植物肉价格昂贵: 在美国，其零售价约为其他肉类的两倍; 在其他地方，它甚至更贵。这很重要: 研究表明，人们对植物肉的需求和其它肉类相比，在价格方面更加敏感。创业公司正在取得进展——去年美国植物肉类价格仅上涨1.4%，远低于通货膨胀——但这还不够。政府可以通过税收优惠、公共采购和贷款补贴来压低价格。
Cost.
Plant-based meat is pricey: in the US, it retails for about twice the price of other meat; elsewhere, it’s even dearer. That matters: studies suggest that demand for plant-based meat is much more sensitive to prices than demand for other meat. Startups are making progress — US plant-based meat prices rose just 1.4% over the last year, much slower than inflation — but not yet enough. Governments could drive down prices through tax incentives, public procurement, and subsidized loans.
■ 二是质量。
最好的植物肉也还不足够好：在最近一组对86个学生的盲测中，牛肉汉堡轻松击败了Beyond 和 Impossible的汉堡。最便宜的植物肉往往表现更糟糕——乐购的 ”植物主厨系列“ 最近达到了与肉类持平的价格，但是一些顾客的评论显示，他们认为它更像硬纸板的替代品，而非肉的替代品。政府有超出私人投资者对时间和风险的承受能力，政府可以通过资助开源性研究来提高植物肉的质量。
Quality.
The best plant-based meats still aren’t good enough: in a recent blind taste test of 86 students, a beef burger easily beat out the Beyond and Impossible burgers. The cheapest plant-based meats are often worse — Tesco’s Plant Chef range recently hit price parity with meat, but reviews suggest some customers view it as a closer substitute for cardboard than meat. Governments could improve quality by funding open access research beyond the timelines and risk tolerance of private investors.
■ 三是基础设施。
植物肉品牌的“扎堆儿现象”——仅美国零售市场至少就有60个——掩盖了该行业对少数代工生产设施的依赖，这些代工生产设施大多数是为加工肉类而建造的。这阻碍了植物肉的专业化生产，并使该行业容易受到供应链的冲击。与此同时，培养肉和发酵行业几乎需要从零开始建立生物制造能力。政府可以像澳大利亚、加拿大和丹麦那样，通过建设大规模的基础设施来提供帮助。
Infrastructure.
The profusion of plant-based meat brands — at least 60 in US retail alone — hides the industry’s reliance on a handful of co-manufacturing facilities, most of which were built to process meat. This prevents specialization and makes the industry vulnerable to supply shocks. Meanwhile, the cultured meat and fermentation industries need to build biomanufacturing capacity almost from scratch. Governments could help by building large-scale infrastructure, as Australia, Canada, and Denmark are doing.
政府的这一系列大规模举措是有先例可循的。在过去十年中，清洁能源、电动汽车和电池的价格都大幅下降，质量都有所提高，这在一定程度上要归功于政府在研发、税收优惠和基础设施方面的投资。这些投资是巨大的：仅2009年的《美国复苏法案》(American Recovery Act) 就向清洁能源（包括可再生能源和电动汽车）投入了900亿美元，而中国在接下来的十年里可能投资更多。
There’s precedent for governments doing all this on a large scale. Clean energy, electric vehicles, and batteries have each seen steep price declines and quality improvements over the last decade, partly thanks to government investments in research, tax incentives, and infrastructure. Those investments were huge: the American Recovery Act of 2009 alone poured $90B into clean energy, including renewables and electric vehicles, while China likely invested much more over the following decade.
【太阳能和风能的电价在十年内分别下降了89%和70%，这在一定程度上得益于政府的支持。
PS: 过去可替代能源成果不代表未来新蛋白的表现。来源：Our World in Data.
Solar and wind electricity prices declined by 89% and 70% respectively in one decade, thanks partly to government support.
Note: past alternative energy results do not predict future alternative protein performance. Source: Our World in Data.】
03
培养政府支持
Cultivating Government Support
新蛋白倡导者有充分的准备去加速政府资助这一趋势。当这样做的时候，我认为有必要记住一些原则:
Advocates are well-positioned to accelerate this trend. As we try to, I think it’s worth keeping a few principles in mind:
■ 政府可以在很多方面提供帮助。
Emerging Proteins NZ的报告概述了政府可以使用的许多工具，从研究资助和奖学金，到税收激励、监管改革和补贴或担保贷款。（见下图）清洁能源技术也受益于分期付款、买方俱乐部和市场预期承诺等创新手段。
Governments can help in lots of ways.
The Emerging Proteins NZ report outlines the many tools at governments’ disposal, from research grants and scholarships, to tax incentives, regulatory reform, and subsidized or guaranteed loans. (See chart below.) Clean energy technologies also benefited from novel instruments like milestone payments, buyers’ clubs, and advance market commitments.
■ 一些政府的帮助更有价值。
GFI认为新加坡和以色列（在文章开始提到的投资图表中仅排名第6和第7）的政府政策最有影响力。这是因为他们将有针对性的研究资金与对该领域的全面支持结合起来，并取得了巨大的成功：这两个小国家现在的新蛋白初创企业在全球占据了相当大的份额。
Some government help is much more valuable.
GFI credits Singapore and Israel (only #6 and #7 in the funding chart at the beginning of the article) with the most impactful government policies. That’s because they’ve paired targeted research funding with comprehensive support for the sector — with great success: the two tiny countries now account for a considerable share of the world’s alternative protein startups.
■ 昆虫不属于新蛋白。
昆虫养殖并不是工业化畜牧业养殖的替代；它是供应商。这也是一场潜在的道德灾难：尽管越来越多的证据表明昆虫可能是有知觉的，但这个行业每年饲养超过一万亿的昆虫，几乎不关心它们的福利。然而，昆虫养殖者却已经在许多新蛋白资助计划中获得了一席之地，比如欧盟的计划。扭转这一趋势应该是致力于新蛋白事业的倡导者的首要任务。
Insects aren’t alternative proteins.
Insect farming isn't an alternative to factory farming; it’s a supplier. It’s also a potential moral catastrophe: the industry already raises over a trillion insects annually, with little concern for their welfare, despite increasing evidence that they may be sentient. Yet insect farmers have secured their inclusion in many alternative protein funding schemes, like the EU’s. Reversing this trend should be a top priority for advocates working on the issue.
■ 你也可以助力。
你可以要求你的政府代言人和政府机构支持新蛋白。如果你是一位政治捐助者或志愿者，你的声音可能会特别有影响力——美国的政治捐助者可能也想与Food Solutions Action联系起来。你可以加入倡议活动以争取政府的支持。我们一起行动，有希望让新蛋白成为下一个新能源，这样有一天，“新”就会成为“默认”状态。
You can help.
You can ask your political representatives and government agencies to support alternative proteins. If you’re a political donor or volunteer, your voice may be especially influential — US political donors may also want to reach out to Food Solutions Action. You can support initiatives campaigning for government support. Together we can hopefully make alternative proteins the next alternative energy, so that one day the “alternative” becomes the default.
END
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#1 新蛋白创业者招募
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#3 往期回顾
道夫子食品国际公司 （Dao Foods International） 是一家专注于新蛋白食品创新的影响力投资和孵化机构，我们旨在帮助创业者面向中国市场开发激动人心的新生代蛋白质产品，从而减少大众消费者对于传统动物养殖业的依赖。我们相信，通过支持优秀的创业者，瞄准4亿中国年轻人市场，开发和推广新颖和美味的新蛋白食品，不仅是一个巨大的商业机会，更会为社会和环境带来广泛的正面影响力。道夫子2018年被行业知名杂志The Grocer选为15家未来改变全球肉类行业的创新公司之一，并于2019年荣获卢森堡国际气候金融加速器的特别奖。