海外之声 | 中日呼吁加强亚洲经济一体化（中英双语）
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观点速递
本文作者是货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）主管戴维·马什和OMFIF亚洲主管亚当·考特，原文摘自2018年1月27日的OMFIF评论，OMFIF是一家总部位于伦敦的全球金融智库。
作者指出年初中日领导人的会晤，并认为，即使中日作为近邻在领土和政治上的纠纷较多，但这无法阻挡中日经济深化合作。从中日双方的经济发展可持续的角度来看，加强亚洲贸易伙伴联系和金融合作是必然趋势。
中文译文如下：
中日金融合作
两国领导人呼吁加强亚洲经济一体化
戴维·马什 & 亚当·考特
翻译：李坤夏
审校：肖柏高
世界第二大经济体中国和第三大经济体日本两国金融和货币合作的加强可能是未来12个月的主要趋势之一。
两国的关系还是相当紧张的，尤其反映在领土主张分歧和中国在东亚地区日益增加的军事存在上。然而，中国国家主席习近平和日本首相安倍晋三在过去的几个月里都巩固了国内政权基础。对于两国领导人来说，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普转向单边主义，刺激了两国去寻找共同利益，以及改善区域贸易和金融关系。
中国是日本最大的贸易伙伴，日本是中国第二大贸易伙伴。日本受惠于中国出境旅游热潮，2017年迎接了约500万名中国游客，人数超过任何其他国家的游客。
尽管《日美安保条约》将继续主导日本的外交政策，但两国为遏制朝鲜领导人金正恩的拥核野心都与美国开展了合作，这可能是两国加强合作的另一个因素。合作可能会进一步扩展到双边货币合作，以及为因美国利率走高而遭受资本外流的亚洲国家提供货币支持等领域。
与东南亚国家联盟十国开展的多边合作是焦点之一。在过去的二十年里，这一趋势不断加强，东亚经济合作在“东盟加三国集团（中国、日本和韩国）”的基础上做出了更大的承诺。虽然中日政治争端偶尔在亚洲其他国家引起恐慌，但是其他国家也从两大经济巨擘的相互竞争中渔翁得利。
东盟仅占亚洲国内生产总值的10％左右，而“中日韩三国集团”则占90％。中日之间的竞争是导致“三国集团”次优合作的原因之一，但可能出现变化。
习近平呼吁进一步加强区域经济一体化，加大贸易投资力度。除中国支持的区域全面经济伙伴关系（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership）外，他还提议就中日韩自由贸易协定进行进一步谈判，不包括美国。
与此同时，近70个国家签署了中国的“一带一路”跨境基础设施建设。虽然在政治上是困难的，但是日本对“一带一路”的深入参与将是亚洲的重大推动力量。这可以反映出亚洲开发银行和中国主导的亚洲基础设施投资银行之间的合作在扩大，前者日本在其中扮演主要角色，后者美国和日本都未参与。
尽管北京和东京积累了雄厚的力量和财富，自1800年以来谁都没有足够强大到成为地区主导。日本在第二次世界大战中对东亚霸权的主张失败，其国家的破坏和随后的经济重建，与中国在共产主义的领导下的改革创新以及今年来影响全球金融市场的能力相比，不相上下。
随着中国和日本在技术、金融和工业发展方面的利益逐渐趋于一致，他们也许能够协调合作，实现更广阔的区域合作。路上挫折在所难免，但未来的道路似乎越来越清晰。
戴维·马什（David Marsh）是货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）主席，亚当·考特（Adam Cotter）是OMFIF亚洲主管。
英文原文如下：
Japan-China financial co-operation
Leaders urge greater economic integration in Asia
by Adam Cotter in Singapore
and David Marsh in London
Wed 17 Jan 2018
Enhanced financial and monetary co-operation between China and Japan, the world's second and third largest economies, is likely to be one of the prime trends to follow in the next 12 months.
There remain considerable strains in the bilateral relationship, not least reflecting differences over territorial claims and China's increased military presence across eastern Asia. Yet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have reinforced their domestic political power bases in the last few months. For both leaders, US President Donald Trump's shift towards unilateralism is an incentive to identify shared interests and improve ties in regional trade and finance.
China is Japan's largest trading partner, while Japan is China's second largest. Japan, benefiting from China's outbound tourism boom, welcomed around 5m Chinese visitors in 2017, more than from any other country.
Although the Japan-US security pact will continue to dominate Japan's foreign policy, both countries' engagement with the US to curb the nuclear ambitions of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could be another factor in improving collaboration. This could spread to spheres such as bilateral currency co-operation and monetary back-up for Asian countries suffering capital outflows because of higher US interest rates.
Multilateral co-operation with the 10 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is an important focus. This has intensified in the last two decades, with a greater commitment to East Asian economic co-operation under the so-called Asean Plus Three grouping, which includes China, Japan and South Korea. While Sino-Japanese political disputes have occasionally raised alarm in the rest of Asia, the rivalry has also benefited the region, since countries play the two economic giants against each other to gain better deals.
Asean accounts for only around 10% of the region's GDP, while the 'Plus Three' represents 90%. Competition between China and Japan has been one reason for sub-optimal co-operation among the Plus Three, but this could change.
Xi is urging further regional economic integration and greater efforts on trade and investment. Aside from the Beijing-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, he is proposing further talks on a free trade agreement between China, Japan and South Korea that does not include the United States.
At the same time, almost 70 countries have signed up to China's cross-border Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. Although it would be politically difficult, Japan's greater involvement in the Belt and Road would be a major boost for the region. This could mirror the extended co-operation between the Asian Development Bank, in which Japan plays a major role, and the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, from which both the US and Japan are absent.
For all the strength and wealth Beijing and Tokyo accumulated, since 1800 neither has been powerful enough to claim regional dominance. Japan's failed bid for east Asian hegemony during the second world war, its destruction and subsequent economic reconstruction has been a development no less significant than China's renewal under communism and its more recent capacity to influence global financial markets.
As Chinese and Japanese interests become progressively aligned in technology, finance and industrial development, they might be able to reconcile and work together towards greater regional co-operation. Setbacks along the way are probable – but the future path seems increasingly clear.
David Marsh is Chairman of OMFIF and AdamCotter is OMFIF's Head of Asia.
观点整理 叶祎然
图文编辑 叶祎然
审校 田雯
监制 朱霜霜
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