海外之声 | 美国财政政策可能刺破资产泡沫：艰难的信贷重新定价将损害新兴市场
观点速递
本文作者是美国企业研究所驻所研究员，曾担任国际货币基金组织政策发展与研究部副主任，以及所罗门美邦公司的新兴市场首席经济顾问德斯蒙德·拉赫曼。
作者认为，特朗普无视了健全的财政管理原则，追求“美国优先”财政政策，可能带来一系列风险。同时他在贸易政策上的保护主义立场进一步恶化了国际局势，影响世界经济发展。
中文译文如下：
美国财政政策可能刺破资产泡沫
艰难的信贷重新定价将损害新兴市场
德斯蒙德·拉赫曼
翻译：尹柔茜
审校：熊若洁
2018年7月2日
去年，当美国经济达到或超过充分就业时，总统唐纳德·特朗普选择推行极具扩张性的财政政策。而今年特朗普政府忽视国外的经济问题，进一步巩固“美国优先”政策，增加了其贸易伙伴的报复风险。
健全的财政管理原则理应如下：经济疲软时赤字财政或许行之有效，但经济强劲时不应再运用此法，否则政府债务将不断攀升。而且如果经济强势时期一味扩大财政赤字，日后经济形势走弱，政府将失去财政政策刺激的转圜余地。
特朗普政府似乎无视这些原则，于2017年推出了缺乏财力支持的减税政策，未来10年美国政府债务将因此增加约1.5万亿美元。特朗普政府也支持国会增加3000亿美元公共支出。
世界主要央行经年宽松的货币政策已导致国际股市和楼市估价过高，与此同时，全球流动性充沛也导致全球市场信贷风险被严重错误定价。
追求扩张性财政政策风险会导致长期利率陡增，而随着美联储收缩膨胀的资产负债表，财政赤字扩大必然使长期利率进一步攀升。
这可能带来一系列风险，如资产价格泡沫破裂，全球信贷艰难地重新定价，面向新兴市场的资本流动突然停止，这对阿根廷，巴西，印度尼西亚，南非和土耳其等国家极具破坏力。
特朗普在贸易政策上的保护主义立场进一步恶化了国际局势，他的保护主义政策远不止对中国的惩罚性贸易行动，这些措施可能有情可原。相反，还包括对美国在美洲和欧洲的盟友征收钢铁和铝的进口关税，甚至包括在围绕北美自由贸易协定的谈判中采取更加强硬的立场，排斥一般贸易协定，以及威胁对进口德国汽车征收更高关税。
政府对抬高进口关税给出的理由是希望消除贸易逆差，但这与其扩张性财政政策自相矛盾。
如果几乎所有经济学家都同意一点，那就是一个国家的贸易差额是其储蓄和投资率之间的数值之差。通过遵循增加预算赤字和降低国家储蓄率的政策，美国政府正在增加重返20世纪80年代“双赤字”的可能性。反过来，当贸易逆差扩大时，这也增加了政府加强其贸易保护主义的可能性。
美国政府“以邻为壑”的政策对欧洲尤其不利。现在意大利形势的发展可能导致欧洲主权债务危机重演，因而欧洲最不需要的就是与美国的贸易战，因为贸易战会进一步削弱投资者信心。
如果特朗普的财政和贸易政策引发全球经济衰退，美国有望被迫与贸易伙伴合作，以促进经济快速复苏。但鉴于特朗普政府在宏观经济政策上的误判和对美国盟友的高压态度，这种乐观的期待恐怕要落空了。
英文原文如下：
US fiscal policy may burst asset bubble
Painful repricing of credit will damage emerging markets
Desmond Lachman
2 July 2018
Last year, President Donald Trump opted for a highly expansionary budget policy stance at a time when the US economy was at or beyond full employment. In 2018, ignoring economic troubles abroad, the administration is reinforcing its commitment to 'America first' policies, raising the risk of retaliation from trade partners.
The principles of sound budget management dictate that while budget deficits might be helpful during times of economic weakness, they should not be tolerated in times of strength. If not, the government's debt would be on an ever increasing path. In addition, as the budget deficit widens during times of strength, the government would not have the room for fiscal policy stimulus in times of weakness.
Seemingly oblivious to these principles, the Trump administration opted in 2017 for an unfunded tax cut that will increase the public debt by an estimated $1.5tn over the next decade. The administration also assented to a $300bn congressional increase in public spending.
Years of easy monetary policy by the world's major central banks have led to overvaluation in global equity and housing markets. At the same time, ample global liquidity has caused credit risk to be seriously mispriced around the world.
Pursuing expansionary fiscal policy risks causing long-term interest rates to rise sharply. As the Federal Reserve shrinks its bloated balance sheet, an increase in the US budget deficit is bound to push long-term rates markedly higher.
That threatens to burst asset price bubbles and could lead to a painful repricing of credit around the world. It risks suddenly halting capital flows to emerging markets. That could be especially damaging for countries like Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey.
Escalation in Trump's protectionist posturing on trade policy further exacerbates already tense global conditions. This goes well beyond taking punitive trade actions against China, where such measures might well be justified. Rather, it includes the imposition of steel and aluminium import tariffs on US allies in the Americas and Europe. It also includes the adoption of a much tougher stance in negotiations around the North American Free Trade Agreement, an antipathy towards trade agreements in general, and the threat of much higher tariffs on imports of German cars.
The reason given for increasing import tariffs is that the administration wishes to eliminate the country's trade deficit. But this contradicts its expansionary budget policy.
If there is one point on which almost all economists can agree, it is that a country's trade balance is arithmetically the difference between its savings and its investment rates. By following policies that increase the budget deficit and reduce the country's savings rate, Washington is increasing the probability that the US will return to the twin deficit problem of the 1980s. That, in turn, raises the chances that the administration will intensify its protectionist stance on trade policy when the country's trade deficit widens.
The timing of Washington's beggar-thy-neighbour policies is especially unfortunate for Europe. At a time when developments in Italy threaten the return of the European sovereign debt crisis, the last thing the region needs is a trade war with the US that might further undermine investor confidence.
If Trump's budget and trade policies trigger a global economic recession, the US will hopefully be compelled to co-operate with trade partners to promote a quick recovery. However, such optimism seems misplaced in the light of the administration's major macroeconomic mistakes and high-handed treatment of US allies.
内容整理 罗梦宇
图文编辑 罗梦宇
审校 田雯
监制 朱霜霜
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