IMF新任驻华首席代表：对全球经济的思考——大金融思想沙龙第157期干货

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9月22日，由中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）、中国人民大学财政金融学院货币金融系主办的“大金融思想沙龙（第157期）暨世界与中国宏观经济形势研讨会”隆重举行。IMF驻华首席代表Steven Barnett出席研讨会，并以“对全球经济的思考”为题发表了主题演讲。他指出当前全球经济正面临着一场空前的危机，各国政府应当在公共卫生政策和财政货币政策上积极响应。同时，他指出疫情后新的问题与旧的问题同时出现，呼吁各国政府能坚持多边主义合作。最后，他希望所有人应该充分地利用这场危机打造一个更加美好的未来。

以下为演讲全文：

非常感谢，这是我六个月以来第一次进行线下的交流和会议。我非常荣幸的能够来到IMI看到很多老朋友和新朋友。首先非常感谢国际货币研究所的邀请。从个人角度来说，我要说两点：首先，我不知道我能不能达到Alfred Schipke的任期记录。希望我任期能够超过七年，这是我的目标。第二点，我来北京非常的开心，不仅有宾至如归的感觉，更是因为在北京美丽的秋季结束了隔离，这非常奇妙。我必须承认，我也喜欢去购物中心、饭店和咖啡馆，这是我过去六个月没有做的事情。我把今天的发言分成五个部分，并以我个人的经历承接第一个观点。一年前，我无法想象我会说诸如“很高兴结束隔离”或“六个月来第一次出门就餐”这样的话。一个微不足道的个人提醒：我们正在经历前所未有的危机。

如果我的第一观点有些令人沮丧，我保证我会以更加乐观的态度结束演讲。我要强调的最后一点是：危机也是机遇，一个为所有人创造更美好未来的机会。我们必须抓住这个机会。

 1

空前的危机

毫无疑问全球经济并不景气。我们正面临着严重的衰退，也经历着前所未有的危机，其衰退的规模、广度和速度都是非同寻常。2009年的全球金融危机造成了历史性大衰退，全球增长几乎为0，这是前所未闻的。然而今年，我们预计将出现急剧的负增长。IMF在6月份发布的预测是，今年全球经济将萎缩近5％。过去在几十年中，新兴市场和发展中经济体一直是促进世界经济增长的引擎，IMF在6月预测中它们今年的增长为负3％。很快新的预测结果也会发布。中国是全球经济增长“相对的”亮点。中国是IMF预测2020年将实现正增长的唯一主要经济体。尽管如此，疫情在中国的经济影响还是很大的，实际上中国今年上半年的增长率为负1.6％。过去我们觉得中国经济增长低于10%很慢。对于发达经济体，我们6月的预测是2020年的增长率为负8％。疫情显然造成了巨大的经济损失。我们预计明年的经济活动将有广泛的反弹，但即便如此，2021年的全球经济仍将大大低于危机前的形势。另一个导致这场危机空前绝后的原因在于产出的下降。这种结果很大程度上归因于疫情防控的必要措施，换言之这是政策的结果。这和过去我们对政策设想是完全相反的。过去我们觉得政府会去强制社交的隔离吗？会进行封城、封市吗？过去大家都会觉得经济低迷时候政府一定会试图出台刺激性政策，但是现在政府由于要遏制病情要进行经济关闭。这场危机的最大原因，在于前景的大量不确定性。除了先前存在的不确定性来源外，还有与病毒有关的大量不确定性。这包括：（1）疫情和封锁需要持续多久？（2）自愿的社会隔离将如何影响支出？（3）失去工作的工人能否在不同部门找到新工作？（4）会有多少经济上不可逆的影响？这些影响会使倒闭的企业和失业的工人难以恢复原有状态。

 2

政策响应

我要说的第二点是当下非同寻常的政策响应。公共卫生政策仍然是目前的重中之重，这也是保护工作、人民和经济所需的。世界各国已采取一些非常特殊的措施来支持个人和工人。在未来，所有经济体都需要确保其医疗保健系统拥有足够的资源。第二，需要继续采取支持性的财政和货币政策，直到危机安全、永久地结束。这些政策目标包括遏制疫情对经济的后续影响，然后促进经济复苏。好消息是各国已对疫情做出有力的反应，许多国家和地区部署了各种各样的财政和金融政策，其中央银行也已采取强有力的行动。例如，许多国家的政策利率已经降低，并且预计未来几年都将在非常低的水平。由十个大型发达经济体央行组成的G10集团，从1月中旬以来其资产增加了六万亿。这已经超过了全球金融危机两年中增长的两倍，而且相当于G10集团GDP的15%，在财政方面，我们也看到了巨大的反响。自4月以来，超过2/3的国家增加了财政支持力度以应对经济冲击，预计今年全球宣布的财政措施支持力度会达到11万亿美元。如果大家对细节感兴趣的话，在我们的网页上，我们有一个政策跟踪器，按照国家和地区列举了政策响应。尽管已经做了很多工作，但仍需继续努力。

 3

疫情后的恢复

由此带来第三点的思考：疫后的恢复，重点讨论一些新的方面与旧的方面。关于新的方面，疫情后的世界可能变得完全不同，关键的挑战将是推行支持转型的政策。一些行业可能会永久萎缩，而另一些行业（例如数字服务）可能会扩张。我们未来的政策必须要促进资源的重新分配，这样才能确保疫情后的经济结构转型能平稳地展开。关于旧的方面，我们很容易忘记，疫情之前世界经济就已经面临挑战，且这种挑战目前依然存在。一些目标在过去和现在始终排在首位，例如：应对气候变化和促进包容性增长。此外，我认为更重要的是促进中期增长的问题。在疫情爆发之前，全球经济已经在与全球增长趋势下行做斗争，这在很大程度上反映了生产力的普遍下降。目前的挑战仍然是采取经济改革措施以提高生产率，这样才能保证未来持续提高全球人民的生活水平、促进全球增长。

 4

多边主义

第四点反思是第三点讨论的延续，也就是多边主义的议题。这次所面临的全球危机需要全球的解决办法，各国必须在多个方面展开合作。首先是健康医疗方面，国际社会需要进一步加强支持各国的举措，这包括：取消对基本医疗用品的贸易限制；向有需要的国家提供财政援助和专门知识；确保足够的资金用于疫苗，能在疫苗准备就绪时保证所有国家能获得其可负担的剂量。除了这次疫情大流行以外，决策者也要通过充分的合作来解决贸易与技术矛盾的问题，比如要加强基于规则的多边贸易体系。另一个领域是气候变化，必须在国际层面进一步加大合作力度，包括通过公平的碳税等各种手段。多边科技援助也较为必要。我们需要团结起来，以帮助最贫穷和最脆弱的经济体，特别是那些背负高债务或受疫情影响严重的国家。这其中，G20的暂停偿债倡议（DSSI）是值得称赞的。同时，还应大力促进私营部门的参与。除DSSI之外，还需要填补国际债务架构的空白，并考虑为许多国家提供更全面的债务减免。国际货币基金组织自疫情发生以来，已向约75个国家提供了紧急资金。同时，我们也加强了基金融资设施的准入限制，并向最低收入成员国提供基于赠款债务减免的待遇。

 5

总结

最后，我想说的是，我们要抓住未来面临的机会。大家经常引用丘吉尔的一句话：“永远不要让一场好的危机白白浪费。”我们当然永远也不想发生危机，毕竟危机发生的经济、人力、社会成本都太高。但是如果危机确实已经来临，我们应该充分地利用它，利用这场危机打造一个更加美好的未来。我希望大家充满希望，世界一定可以充分利用这场危机为所有人打造一个美好的未来。谢谢！

以下为英文原文：

Reflections on the Global Economy

Steven Barnett, Member of IMI International Committee, Senior Resident Representative of IMF China

Introduction

I would like to thank IMI for inviting me to speak today. 

It is a pleasure for me to be here today. And, this is my first in-person event since coming to China. On a personal note, I’m happy to be in Beijing, out of quarantine, and enjoying this beautiful Fall weather. And, I must confess, also enjoying going to malls, restaurants, and cafes. I will make 5 points in my remarks. And, my personal experience is a segue to my first point. A year ago, I couldn’t imagine that I would be saying “happy to be out of quarantine.” A personal and somewhat trivial reminder that: We are experiencing a crisis like no other. Which is my first point. If my first point is a bit depressing, I promise I will end on a more optimistic note. My last and, I would highlight, main point is that the crisis is also an opportunity. An opportunity to build a better future for all people. An opportunity that we must seize. 

Crisis like no other

Perhaps it goes without saying that the state of the global economy is not good. We are in a deep recession and experiencing a crisis like no other. 

The size, breadth, and speed of the decline is extraordinary. In 2009, the world experienced the global financial crisis. It generated a historically large recession, with global growtharound zero. Such low global growth is almost unheard of. Until now. This year, we expect sharply negative growth. Our forecast published in June was for the global economy to shrink by nearly 5 percent this year. All economies are feeling the impact. In emerging market and developing economiesour June forecast was for growth this year of minus 3 percent.China is a relative bright spot, with an emphasis on relative. It is the only major economy where we forecastgrowth in 2020 to be positive. Nonetheless, the economic impact of the pandemic in China has been large. Indeed, in the first half of this year growth was minus 1.6 percent.As for advanced economies, our June forecast was for growth in 2020 of minus 8 percent.The pandemic clearly has done enormous economic damage. We do expect a broad-based rebound in activity next year. But, even with that, the global economy in 2021 will be substantially below the pre-crisis trend. Anotherreason this is a crisis like no other is the reason for the output decline. It is to a large extent a consequence of necessary measures to contain the virus. In other words, it is the result of policies.This, obviously, is not the typical role of economic policy. Usually, in a downturn, we would think of governments trying to stimulate activity. Instead, this time, they were initially focused on virus containment, which required shutting down parts of the economy.And, a final reason this is a crisis like no other relates to the significant amount of uncertainty about the outlook.Aside from pre-existing sources of uncertainty, there is a large amount of uncertainty related to the virus. This includes:-How long the pandemic and required lockdowns will last. -How voluntary social distancing will affect spending.-Whether displaced workers will be able to find new jobs, possibly in different sectors.-How much economic scarring there will be. Scarring that could make it hard for shuttered businesses and unemployed workers to bounce back once the pandemic fades.

Policy response

My second point is that there has been an extraordinary policy response. 

The public health response remains the top priority. This is needed to protect people, jobs, and economic activity. Across the world, countries have implemented exceptional measures to support individuals and workers. Going forward, all economies need to ensure that their health care systems have enough resources. Second, supportive fiscal and monetary policies will need to continue until we can secure a safe and durable exit from the crisis. The goals include containing the economic fallout and then facilitating the recovery. The good news is that around the world, countries have responded forcefully to the pandemic. We have seen large fiscal and financial sector measures deployed in a range of countries. Central banks have taken strong actions. For example, in a number of countries, policy interest rates have been cut and are expected to remain at very low levels for several years. And, as one example of the extraordinary response we can look at the G10 (a group of 10 large advanced economy central banks) central banks. Their assets have increased by about US$ 6 trillion since mid-January. This is more than double the increase we saw during the two years of the global financial crisis. And, it is equivalent to about 15 percent of G10 GDP. On the fiscal front, we have also seen a substantial response. And, since April, more than 2/3 of the countries have increased their fiscal support to deal with the economic fallout. We estimated that the announced fiscal measures globally are nearly 11 trillion US$. On our web page (www.imf.org), we have a policy tracker that catalogues countries’ policy responses. While a lot has been done, efforts will need to continue. 

Post-pandemic

Which brings me to my third point: The post-pandemic recovery. In thinking about the recovery, I will touch upon something new and something old. 

Regarding the new, it is likely that the post-pandemic world will look different. Thus, a key challenge will be to pursue policies that support transformational change.Some sectors may permanently shrink, while others—such as digital services—will likely expand.Policies that facilitate the corresponding reallocation of resources will ensure that this transformational change is as smooth as possible.Regarding the old, it is easy to forget that even pre-pandemic the global economy was facing significant challenges. These have not gone away. High on the list were, and are, goals such as: addressing climate change and fostering inclusive growth. Another, more wonky but in my view extremely important is to boost medium-term growth. Prior to the pandemic, the global economy was struggling with a trend decline in global growth, largely reflecting declining gains in productivity. Thus, a key challenge remains the pursuit of economic reforms to boost productivity, which will be critical for ensuring continued gains in living standards.

Multilateralism

My fourth point is actually a continuation of my last argument on old challenges. But, it is so important that it gets its own point. This is the importance of multilateralism. The global scale of the crisis requires global solutions. Countries, therefore, must cooperate on multiple fronts. 

One is on health. The international community needs to vastly step up efforts to support national initiatives. This includes removing trade restrictions on essential medical supplies; providing financial assistance and expertise to countries that need it; ensuring adequate funding for vaccines, so when ready, affordable dose are quickly available to all countries. Beyond the pandemic, policymakers must cooperate to address underlying issues related to trade and technology tensions. This includes, for example, strengthening the rules-based multilateral trading system. Another area is climate change, where efforts need to be scaled up at the international level, ideally through means such as equitable carbon taxation. Multilateral financial assistance is also necessary. We need to unite to help the poorest and most vulnerable economies, especially those struggling with high debt or dependent on hard-hit sectors. The G20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), for example, has been commendable. Greater private sector participation should also be strongly promoted. Beyond the DSSI, there is a need to fill gaps in the international debt architecture and think about more comprehensive debt relief for many countries. The IMF, I would add, has moved with unprecedented speed. We have provided emergency financing to around 75 countriessince the pandemic hit. We have also enhanced access limits to our emergency financing facilities and provided grant-based debt service relief to our lowest-income members. 

Conclusion

My last and main pointis about the opportunity in front of us. 

A common saying—sometimes attributed to Winston Churchill is: “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” Of course, we never want to have a crisis. The economic, human, and social costs are too high. But, when we have one, we should use it. So, this is my main message. “We can use the crisis as an opportunity to build a better future for all people.” A message which I borrowed from Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director of the IMF.In that spirit, and in conclusion, I will leave you with the hope the world uses this crisis to build a better future for all people.Thank you. 

观点整理  文锡炜

编辑  郭瑞华

责编  金天、蒋旭

监制  安然、魏唯

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中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）成立于2009年12月20日，是专注于货币金融理论、政策与战略研究的非营利性学术研究机构和新型专业智库。研究所聘请了来自国内外科研院所、政府部门或金融机构的90余位著名专家学者担任顾问委员、学术委员和国际委员，80余位中青年专家担任研究员。

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