海外之声 | 中国时刻——区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）正式签署
导读
经过为期八年的谈判，11月15日，区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）正式签署。协议覆盖中国与东盟十国以及日本、韩国、澳大利亚和新西兰共15个国家，涉及的人口数量约22亿，约占全球GDP的30％，在规模、价值和重要性上都是前所未有的。
RCEP协议的真正美学在于，尽管外部环境有种种不利因素，它的谈判和签署一直在稳步推进。事实上，RCEP可以在经贸关系上整合庞大的欧亚大陆，覆盖西欧、中东、北非、亚洲，面积约5500万平方公里，这可以说是协议的一个副产品。协议的关键之处在于，贸易结算将使用当地货币或人民币，这将加剧亚太地区乃至全世界的去美元化趋势。“一带一路”基础设施投资的大部分是由美元以外的其他货币提供资金。中国计划推出的央行数字货币将作为国际支付的法定货币，这更将大大减少美元的使用。新的数字人民币将受到许多遭受美国制裁的国家的欢迎，使得他们不再因某些国际行为有违美国旨意而受到惩罚和经济封锁。中国的人民币是由其稳定的经济发展所支撑的。如今美元已逐渐在走下坡路。20到25年前，全球储备资产中约有90％以美元计价，这一比例到今天已经缩减到60％以下，并且还在不断下降。中国经济的发展和人民币的崛起，加之RCEP的签订以及“一带一路”倡议的推行，可能进一步加速去美元化和去霸权化。同时，数字人民币也将逐渐取代全球的美元和欧元储备。按照中国的哲学，单边世界将最终转变为多极世界。RCEP和“一带一路”倡议的结合将加速这一崇高目标的实现，并为世界带来更多的平衡。总而言之，RCEP是具有中国特色的中国杰作，它为构建人类命运共同体铺平道路，在和平的环境中实现主权、生存、工作、建设、创新、文明之间的相互促进。作者| Peter Koenig，Centre for Research on Globalization（CRG）研究员
英文原文如下：
The China Moment
Peter Koenig, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization.
On top of being the largest such trade agreement in human history, it also associates with and binds to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), or One Belt, One Road (OBOR), or also called the New Silk Road, which in itself comprises already more than 130 countries and more than 30 international organizations. In addition, China and Russia have a longstanding strategic partnership, containing bilateral agreements that also enter into this new trade fold – plus the countries of the Central Asia Economic Union (CAEU), consisting mostly of former Soviet Republics, are also integrated into this eastern trade block.
The conglomerate of agreements and sub-agreements between Asian-Pacific countries that will cooperate with RCEP, is bound together by for the west a little-understood Asian Pact, called the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), founded on 15 June 2001 in Shanghai as an intergovernmental organization composed of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The SCO’s purpose is to ensure security and maintain stability across the vast Eurasian region, join forces to counteract emerging challenges and threats, and enhance trade, as well as cultural and humanitarian cooperation.
Much of the funding for RCEP and BRI projects will be in the form of low-cost loans from China’s Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB) and other Chinese and participating countries’ national funding sources. In the hard times emerging from the covid crisis, many countries may need grant assistance to be able to recover as quickly as possible their huge socioeconomic losses created by the pandemic. In this sense, it is likely that the new Silk Road may enhance a special “Health Road” across the Asian Continent.
The real beauty of this RCEP agreement is that it pursues a steady course forward, despite all the adversities imposed by the west, foremost the US of A. In fact, the RCEP may, as “byproduct”, integrate the huge Continent of Eurasia that spans all the way from western Europe to what is called Asia and covering the Middle East as well as North Africa, of some 55 million square kilometers.
The crux of the RCEP agreement’s trade deals is that they will be carried out in local currencies and in yuan – no US dollars. The RCEP is a massive instrument for dedollarizing, primarily the Asia-Pacific Region, and gradually the rest of the world.
Much of the BRI infrastructure investments, or New Silk Road, may be funded by other currencies than the US dollar. China’s new digital Renminbi (RMB) or yuan soon being rolled out internationally as legal tender for international payments and transfers, will drastically reduce the use of the dollar. The new digital RMB will become attractive for many countries which are fed up with being subjected to US sanctions, because using the US-dollar, they automatically become vulnerable to being punished with dollar blockages, confiscations of resources, whenever their international “behavior” doesn’t conform with the mandates of Washington’s.
Even country reserves can be stolen, a crime perpetrated by Washington with impunity and with the help of the UK, in full sight of the world, stealing 1.2 billion dollars’ worth of Venezuelan gold deposited with the Bank of England. Only a cumbersome lengthy legal process in UK courts initiated by Venezuela could eventually free the funds to be returned to the jurisdiction of Caracas. This is a warning for many countries, who want to jump the fiat-dollar-ship and join an honest trading and reserve currency, offered by China’s solid and stable economy-backed RMB / yuan.
The dollar is already today in decline. When some 20-25 years ago about 90% of all worldwide held reserve-assets were denominated in US dollars, this proportion has shrunk by today to below 60% - and keeps declining. The emerging international RMB / yuan, together with a RCEP- and BRI-strengthened Chinese economy, may further contribute to a dedollarization, as well as dehegemonization of the United States in the world. Simultaneously and progressively the international digital RMB / yuan may also be replacing the US-dollar / euro reserves in countries’ coffers around the globe.
The US-dollar may eventually return to be just a local US-currency, as it should be. Under China’s philosophy, the unilateral word will transform into a multi-polar world. The RCEP and New Silk Road combination are rapidly pursuing this noble objective, a goal that will bring much more equilibrium into the world.
For the west adapting to this new reality may not be easy. Cooperation instead of competition has never been a western concept or philosophy. For hundreds if not thousands of years the western dominance has left a sad legacy of exploitation of the poor by the rich colonial masters and of bloody wars.
Cooperation instead of competition and warrying for power, is a concept not easily adhered to by the west. It is clearly visible by US-instigated trade wars, and possibly a currency war between the US and China may already be in the making.The FED has vaguely expressed its plans to also launch a digital, possibly cryptic, blockchain-based currency to counter the new RMB / yuan – not yet even launched internationally. Details of the FED’s plans are at the time of this writing not clear.
Having to adapt to the new RCEP, conforming to an agreement among equals, will not come easy for the west. The west will not let go and may use to the utmost possible, its creation and western biased World Trade Organization (WTO), to sabotage as much as possible the RCEP’s trade deals and BRI-infrastructure, as well as cross-border industrial development advances.
The west, led by the US – and always backed by the Pentagon and NATO, may not shy from threatening countries participating in China’s projects, but to no avail. Under Taoist philosophy, China will move forward with her partners, like steadily flowing water, constantly creating, avoiding obstacles, in pursuit of her noble goal – a world in Peace with a bright common future.
In conclusion, the RCEP is a Chinese Masterpiece with Chinese characteristics and is paving the way for further progressing towards a world community with a shared future for mankind. The underlying principle is a community of sovereign nations, living, working, building, inventing, creating and culturally enriching each other in peace.
编译 董熙君
编辑 易景阳
来源 CRG
责编 李锦璇、蒋旭
监制 安然、魏唯
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