双语 | 希拉里只能活一年？分析她万一“挂掉”，美国大选的三种可能性
“希拉里只能活一年了”,近日，英国媒体《快报》的标题赫然写道。
标题里说，她患的是晚期血管性痴呆病（advanced vascular dementia）。
听起来怕怕的。那么，这是一种什么样的疾病呢？
血管性痴呆（Vascular dementia），亦称多发梗塞性痴呆（multi-infarct dementia），是一系列由于血管性疾病引起的大脑梗塞，通常于晚年发作。血管性痴呆，最终会导致脑组织死亡（brain tissue death），并且不能治愈。
这个诊断并不是空穴来风，近日希拉里在公众场合的几次身体异常状况也引发了媒体和公众的普遍关注。
9月5日，希拉里在个人专机上接受采访时，突然爆发了剧烈的咳嗽，不得不直接中断采访。
9月6日，在克里夫的一场集会上，希拉里再次咳嗽。期间试图想用喝水压住咳嗽，但没有成功，这阵咳嗽持续了2分钟。
前日，在纽约的“911”事件15周年纪念活动上，有人拍到希拉里因为中暑中途离场，上车过程中全靠随行人员搀扶，身体摇摇欲坠，据说还掉了只鞋。事后，新闻报道说她患的是肺炎。
但是，她的状况还远远不止这些，甚至在接受记者采访时，突然就这样了：
和老公在一起时，还有这样的：
你以为她是在搞怪吗？
《快报》发帖的医生说，血管痴呆是一种很难治疗的疾病，因为它影响脑干，而脑干正是控制人体动作的基本功能。
天哪，如果真是这样，我们是不是就只能等待特朗普就职美国总统了？
对此，关注政治与文化问题的美国网站The Right Stuff 给出了一个很及时的分析 ↓
如果希拉里退出总统大选，形势又会发生哪些变化？
By now we’re all aware of Hillary’s medical issue that occurred at the 9/11 ceremony yesterday morning in New York City. Hillary was taken to Chelsea’s apartment instead of a hospital for several reasons: first and foremost, the campaign is already well-aware of what’s wrong with her, and in a close second, they have little to no control over her privacy in a hospital. As one can imagine, there was an enormous political calculus in determining whether or not to pull her out of the ceremony, to an extent that it weighed considerably against her health considerations. The optics of this were extremely damaging to her campaign and the video footage of her being loaded into a Secret Service van like a slab of meat made it exponentially worse.
我们都知道希拉里在纽约的9·11纪念活动上突发健康状况问题。但希拉里为何被送到其女儿切尔西的公寓，而不是直接送到医院？有以下几点原因：首先，至关重要的是，政党对希拉里的健康状况已经了如指掌，如果在短时间内送往医院，就无法很好地控制和保护她的隐私。可想而知，是否选择让她离开纪念活动现场得经过大量的政治成本效益权衡，权衡离场的政治利益是否远远大于对她健康状况的考虑。但这个举动对她的政党来说是个不折不扣的打击，那段希拉里像块肉一样被塞进密勤局车的视频片段也让局势直线恶化。
The pneumonia diagnosis is being used to buy time and leave the public with the impression that she is suffering from something serious, but from which she can recover. With just 15 days until the first debate on September 26th, the decision to cancel her trip to California was a prudent one. The outside temperature was just 75 degrees when Clinton “fainted” this morning and, believe me, that debate stage is going to be much hotter under the lights, for upwards of 90 minutes, pitted against Donald Trump for the very first time.
其实关于肺炎的诊断只是用来拖延时间，让公众认为她现在正处于患病期，假以时日就会康复。距离9月26日的大选首次辩论仅有15天时间，希拉里取消加利福尼亚之行实在是精明之举。今天早上希拉里“晕倒”的时候，室外温度只有75度（约为24℃），而辩论会的演讲台在灯光下将会远远高于这个温度，并且要在台上站不止90分钟，这对于首次应战唐纳德·特朗普的希拉里来说是个严峻的考验。
The mainstreaming of Hillary’s health issues and the seriousness of this morning’s incident have raised many questions: What happens if she becomes incapacitated and drops out–or even dies? What if this happens before the election? What if it happens after, but before the inauguration? Can the party remove her as the nominee?
关于希拉里健康问题的主流声音以及今早晕倒事件的严重性引起了人们对于许多问题的思考：如果她丧失能力并退出竞选，或者甚至死亡该怎么办？如果大选前发生这些状况该怎么办？如果大选之后、就职之前发生这些问题又该如何处理？政党是否会将她从候选人中移除？
There’s been some disinformation floating around about this, including supposition that President Obama could delay the election (he cannot–unless Congress acts, the election is Constitutionally mandated to occur as scheduled) or they could just run Biden. There are also complications given we are now less than 60 days from Election Day and early voting has already started in some states. Based on what we know today, here are some possibilities:
围绕这些问题，涌现出了一批不实的信息，包括奥巴马总统会延迟大选的猜想（他无权实行此举——除非国会立法，否则大选将按照宪法强制如期执行），又或者他们会挺拜登。现在距离选举日只有不到60天的时间，有些州已经开始了前期投票，可能还会有导致情况复杂恶化的其他因素。基于我们至今为止所掌握的信息，会有这些可能：
What happens if Hillary drops out before the election?
如果希拉里在大选之前放弃该怎么办？
If Hillary drops out or dies before the general election, the Democratic National Committee could replace her, but only after reconvening a meeting of the committee members in-person and after a quorum has been reached in that meeting. This is outlined in Article 2, Sections 7 & 8 of the DNC’s bylaws:
如果希拉里在普选前放弃或死亡，民主党全国委员会可以换掉她，但委员们必须亲自再召开会议，并且参会人员必须达到法定人数。关于此项要求在民主党章程第二章第7、8节中有所规定：
Section 7 states:
第7节规定：
A special meeting to fill a vacancy on the National ticket shall be held on the call of the Chairperson, who shall set the date for such meeting in accordance with the procedural rules provided for in Article Two, Section 8(d) of these Bylaws.
填补国家候选人职位空缺的特殊会议须在主席要求下举行，主席应根据此章程第二章第8（d）节中的程序法规则，确定大会举行的时间。
Section 8 states:
第8节规定：
A majority of the full membership of the Democratic National Committee present in person or by proxy shall constitute a quorum, provided that no less than forty percent (40%) of the full membership be present in person for the purpose of establishing a quorum; provided, however, that for purposes of voting to fill a vacancy on the National ticket, a quorum shall be a majority of the full membership present in person.
大多数出席会议的民主党全国委员会正式委员或代理委员应达到法定人数，法定人数中应有不少于百分之四十(40%)的正式委员本人出席。然而参加国家候选人空缺职位选举的法定人数应有大部分正式委员本人出席。
This is different from the RNC rules, which state that the RNC has to either convene a new convention or take an official poll of the RNC’s state representatives in order to determine who would fill the vacated slot on the ticket. It’s likely they would move the VP up to keep the fundraising for the ticket that had already been done.
此规则不同于共和党全国委员会规定，共和党全国委员会规定，对于最终填补国家候选人职位空缺人选的确定，大会必须召集新的集会，或官方选举共和党在每个州的代表。他们很可能把副总统往上推，以此留住已经获得的筹款。
There aren’t currently any rules in place to remove Hillary as the nominee. Ultimately, that decision must be made by her. The takeaway from the DNC rules is that they would not have to reconvene their convention in order to choose a new presidential nominee in the event that the slot was vacated. Similar to the RNC scenario, keeping Kaine on the ticket or moving him up as the presidential nominee would keep the campaign and fundraising done thus far intact. However this is not guaranteed.
现在没有任何规定可以把希拉里从候选人中移除。最终决定只能是她本人来做。我们能从民主党全国委员会规定中知道的是，一旦总统候选人位置空出，他们无需再次召开大会来选择新的候选人。跟共和党全国委员会情况差不多的是，把Kaine放候选人名单上或者把他往上提为总统候选人，可以使目前的竞选和募资都不受影响。不过这种情况也并没有保证。
Who would replace Hillary would obviously be entirely political at this stage of the race, especially with regard to whether or not that person could beat Donald Trump.
大选进程至此阶段，谁会替代希拉里很明显完全是个政治性决断，尤其是考虑到替代者能否打败特朗普成功当选。
Even though this is an option Democrats could exercise up until Election Day, there are open questions related to the legality of changing election ballots and whether or not simply swapping out the nominee is even feasible given early voting has already started in many states. It may not only be too late to reprint them, but it would also violate many state election laws. It’s also entirely possible it may simply be too late. We are in uncharted political territory.
虽然民主党直到大选当日都还可以选择其他接替人选，但是改变选举投票的合法性还是一个公开的问题，并且很多州已经开始早期投票了，中途改变参选人也不太可行。当然重印选票是可以的，但此举本身就违反了很多州的选举法。也有可能根本就来不及重印选票了。
What if she is incapacitated or dies after winning the election, but before the Electoral College convenes in December?
如果她当选总统后，在十二月的总统选举团召集之前丧失能力或死亡呢？
If she is incapacitated or dies between the general election and when members (electors) of the electoral college meet (on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December after the presidential election), according to federal law:
如果她在普选和总统选举团成员集会（十二月总统选举结束后的第二个星期三之后的星期一）之间丧失能力或死亡，根据联邦法律：
If a candidate dies or becomes incapacitated between the general election and the meeting of electors, under federal law, the electors pledged to the deceased candidate may vote for the candidate of their choice at the meeting of electors. Individual states may pass laws on the subject, but no federal law proscribes how electors must vote when a candidate dies or becomes incapacitated.
如果候选人在普选和总统选举团成员会议之间死亡或丧失能力，根据联邦法律选举团成员可在参选人减少的情况下在成员会议中为他们选择的候选人投票。不同的州可能会就此有不同法律，不过没有联邦法律规定选举团成员在其中一个候选人死亡或丧失能力时还必须进行投票。
What if she is incapacitated or dies after the Electoral College electors cast their votes, but before the inauguration?
如果她在总统选举团成员投票以后，就职之前死亡或者丧失能力呢？
Also in the event that she is incapacitated or dies between when the electors cast their ballots and the votes are counted in Congress, federal law states:
要是她在总统选举团成员投票以后，就职以前死亡或者丧失能力，投票在议会仍算作数。联邦法律阐明：
…the Constitution is silent on whether this candidate meets the definition of “President elect” or “Vice President elect.” If the candidate with a majority of the electoral votes is considered “President elect,” even before the counting of electoral votes in Congress, Section 3 of the 20th Amendment applies. Section 3 of the 20th Amendment states that the Vice President elect will become President if the President elect dies or becomes incapacitated.
宪法对候选人是否符合“总统选举”和“副总统选举”并无规定。如果得票更多的候选人被考虑作为“总统选举”，甚至在计算议会投票之前，第3节第20修正案都适用。第3节第20修正案规定如果所选总统死亡或丧失能力，副总统成为总统。
What’s next?
接下来？
Aside from the pneumonia diagnosis and the cancellation of her California trip, we’ve heard little from the campaign. There are, however, rumors floating around about the possibility of the DNC convening an emergency meeting to consider a replacement for Clinton.
除了肺炎诊断和取消加州之行，我们几乎没听到其他希拉里的竞选动态。不过民主党全国委员会可能召开紧急会议考虑克林顿代替希拉里的谣言还是沸沸扬扬。
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