双语 | 快速看懂“最无聊德国大选”来龙去脉 其实暗藏玄机

上周末，德国大选吸引了全世界的目光。据美联社9月24日报道，德国官方正式确认大选结果，默克尔所在的政党以33.0%的得票率位居第一，已经连任12年的总理默克尔将开启她的第4个任期。

本次德国大选被评为“史上最无聊大选”，然而看似“无聊”实则暗藏玄机。Yee君这就带你一探究竟。

Cliffhangers in America, France and The Netherlands had made the German vote look less interesting - especially as Angela Merkel was certain to return as chancellor.

美国、法国和荷兰大选的悬疑剧情曾使得德国大选一度黯然失色，特别是安吉拉·默克尔板上钉钉地将继任总理。

But it is clear that, behind her re-election, there have been some dramatic, historic changes to German politics this weekend.

但有一点很清楚的是，在她周末的再次当选背后，德国的政治正经历着戏剧性且历史性的变化。

Some key takeaways:

主要有以下几点：

Historic and controversial gains for the far-right?

对于极右翼来说，是否既是历史性的胜利同时又备受争议？

Yes - exit polls say the Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) party have won more than 13% of the vote, making them the third most popular party in Germany.

是的。——出口民调（译者注：出口民调是私营调查机构在投票站出口处对刚刚走出投票站的选民进行的一项调查 ，通过直接询问选民投给谁来预估选举结果）显示，德国选择党获得了超过13%的选票，成为德国第三大获得民众支持的政党。

This is an extraordinary achievement for a party only formed four years ago and, for many, it will be seen as a hugely controversial achievement given Germany's history.

这对于一个成立时间仅为4年的政党来说是个巨大的胜利，而对于许多人来说，从德国历史来看，这也是个颇具争议的结果。

▲德国选择党联合领袖艾丽斯·魏德尔（Alice Weidel）和亚历山大·高兰（Alexander Gauland）

Many will blame Merkel for the AfD success.

许多人将德国选择党的胜利归咎于默克尔。

Her open door policy towards refugees and migrants caused significant concern across Germany, with many questioning if the country could cope with the influx.

她对难民和移民的开门政策引发了德国人民的深切担忧，许多人都质疑国家是否能应付这么多人流的涌入。

The AfD, which was formed predominately as a euro-sceptic party, shifted its focus onto anti-immigrant, anti-Islam - which has clearly resonated with a proposition of the population.

德国选择党主要由欧洲怀疑论者组成，但他们将重心转移到了反移民、反伊斯兰，因此显而易见，他们和人民的观点产生了共鸣。

In the last federal election in 2013 - the year the AfD was formed - they achieved just 4.8% of the vote.

在上次2013年的联邦大选中——德国选择党成立的同年，他们仅获得了4.8%的选票。

Their radical politics have resonated.

他们的激进政治观点引发了人民的共鸣。

It looks as though the AfD did extremely well in what was once East Germany - perhaps even becoming the second largest party there.

德国选择党似乎在曾经的东德地区有很大影响力，甚至可能会成为那儿的第二大党。

Economically, the eastern half of Germany is less well-off and has prospered much less since reunification.

德国东半部地区的经济相对落后，直至德国统一后，其经济增长也收效甚微。

More broadly an increased vote for extreme parties?

极端党派获得的票数越来越多？

Again - yes.

答案还是——是的。

It defies convention that, at a time when Germany is largely prosperous and with low unemployment (a recent poll suggested that more than 80% of people were content economically), exit polls suggest that more than 22% of voters have chosen to edge far to the left or right.

这种现象打破了常规。德国总体经济发展良好，失业率低（最近民调显示，超过80%的人民对经济状况感到满意），然而出口民调显示，超过22%的选民倾向左翼或右翼。

▲德国绿党支持者在得知第一轮出口民调结果时的反应

That's up from just over 12% in 2013.

而在2013年，他们的支持率刚刚超过12%。

It's likely that voting abstentions helped add to the gains by more radical parties.

也许弃权票增加了更多极端党派的胜算率。

But on the flip side - around 86% of voters still chose moderate parties.

但反过来说，大约有86%的选民依然选择温和党派。

And as the former editor of Die Zeit hinted at on Sunday night it's notable that Merkel won in spite of (or for a huge proportion because of) her decision to allow more than one million refugees into the country.

德国时代周报前编辑24日晚提及，尽管（或者很大程度上因为）默克尔决定允许逾百万难民进入德国，她的成功当选还是很重要的。

A further four years for Europe's most powerful and influential leader?

欧洲最有权势且最具影响力的领导人默克尔将迎来下一个4年？

Yes - Barring something unexpected, Merkel will now be Germany's leader until 2021 - 16 years in power.

的确如此。如无意外，默克尔将连续16年执政，一直担任德国总理至2021年。

She is already Europe's most influential leader and the world's most powerful woman. However, she is significantly weakened by this election.

默克尔早已是欧洲最具影响力的领导人，也是全球最有权势的女性。然而，这次大选却极大地撼动了她的地位。

▲默克尔说结果没有她想象的好

Her monopoly on power has been dented with voters turning further to the right and to the left.

随着选民进一步偏向支持左派与右派，默克尔对权力的垄断力量已被削弱。

The polls didn't predict a dent this big. It is the second worst result for the CDU since 1949.

民意调查并没有预测到削弱的程度如此之大。对基督教民主联盟（简称“基民盟”）而言，这是自1949年以来第二个最糟糕的结果。

A terrible night for the SPD?

社会民主党的惨痛之夜？

Yes - they will see it as a lesson on the damage a grand coalition can do to the junior partner.

事实正是如此。他们会将它看作是一个大联盟对初期合作伙伴所能造成的打击，而从中吸取教训。

For the past four years, the SPD have partnered with Merkel's CDU.

在过去四年里，社会民主党（简称“社民党”）一直与默克尔领导的基民盟合作。

▲社民党总理候选人马丁·舒尔茨（Martin Schulz）

Because of this, SPD leader Martin Schulz has struggled to differentiate himself and his party from Merkel's CDU.

正因如此，社民党领导人马丁·舒尔茨一直努力将其本人和其政党与默克尔领导的基民盟区分开来。

The same happened to the FDP liberal party in 2013.

2013年，自由民主党也遭遇了同样的情况。

They had been in coalition with Merkel for the previous four years and were wiped out in 2013 as a result.

在2013年大选中，自由民主党被踢出局。而在之前的四年中，自由民主党则一直是默克尔的合作党派。

The FDP - liberals - have made a comeback this time though?

自由民主党这次能否东山再起？

Yes - time out from government has helped.

答案是肯定的。远离政治中心的那段时期对自由民主党大有裨益。

They scored 4.8% of the vote in 2013 - short of the 5% threshold to get seats in the parliament.

2013年大选中，自由民主党得到4.8%的选票，但只有获得5%以上的选票才可取得议会席位。

This time they secured more than 10%. Still less than the AfD - but a success nonetheless.

今年大选中，自由民主党所获选票在10%以上，虽然比德国选择党的选票要少，但也是一大胜利。

▲自由民主党领袖克里斯汀·林德纳（Christian Lindner）

So what now?

现在局势如何？

Either a coalition or a CDU minority government.

目前有两个选择，一是组建联合政府，二是组建基民盟少数派政府。

The SPD have decided they want time in opposition now (given their battering) and have ruled out another grand coalition.

社民党表明他们将成为反对党（鉴于之前受到的打压），并排除了组建另一个大联盟的可能性。

Merkel could look to form a Jamaica Coalition (so-called because of the colours of the parties who make it up).

默克尔将有可能组建“牙买加联盟”（联盟成员为联盟党、自由党、绿党，其代表色分别为黑、黄、绿，而“黑黄绿”三种颜色正好是牙买加国旗的颜色）。

If she can persuade the Greens and the FDP to come into government, then she'll have her coalition.

如果默克尔可以说服绿党和自由党加入政府，她便可以成功组建自己的联合政府。

▲默克尔是否能说服绿党和自由党加入政府？

The problem is that their policies are not all that aligned - greens and conservatives are not natural allies.

问题在于他们的政策并非都是一致的，绿党和保守党不是天生的盟友。

The other option is a minority CDU government propped up by SPD support.

另一个选择是在社民党的支持下组建基民盟少数派政府。

The SDP decision not to join a coalition and instead sit on the opposition side makes them the main opposition party.

社民党决定不加入联盟，反而站在反对派的一边，使其成为最主要的反对党。

Had they gone into government with Merkel, the main opposition party would have been the far right AfD.

如果社民党加入政府并与默克尔合作，主要的反对党则为极右翼的选择党。

The influence on Brexit?

对英国脱欧的影响如何？

Everything from a British perspective is now seen through the prism of Brexit.

从英国的角度看，如今任何事情都要经过 “脱欧”棱镜的折射。

The British government has repeatedly suggested that once the German election is over, Merkel's focus will return to Brexit and her pan-EU influence will allow for compromises in favour of the UK.

英国政府多次提到，一旦德国大选结束，默克尔的关注点将重新回到英国脱欧上，而她的泛欧盟政策的影响力也将容许有利于英国的折中方案。

But that's not necessarily true.

但那不一定是真的。

▲大选结果对于法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）来说是个坏消息

If she goes for the Jamaica coalition option, there are still many weeks or even months of coalition building to be done before a government is formed. It is likely to be the New Year at the earliest.

如果她选择了“牙买加联盟”，那么，在组建政府之前，还需要几个星期甚至几个月进行联盟建设。最早可能也得到新年了。

In that instance, there is a chance that once the government is formed, the pro-business FDP will put pressure on Merkel to cut the UK some slack to ensure that German business isn't damaged by a hard Brexit.

在这种情况下，一旦政府组建完成，重商的自民党可能会向默克尔施压，给英国一些通融，以确保德国的商业不被硬脱欧损害。

However, the counter argument is that Germany will put the integrity of the single market over a short-term hit on the German economy.

然而，也有相反的观点认为，较之德国经济受到短期打击，德国将更看重单一市场的完整性。

A minority CDU government with SDP support is unlikely to change the German position on Brexit from its present one.

一个由社会民主党支持的少数的基督教民主联盟领导的政府，也不太可能改变当前德国在英国脱欧问题上的立场。

What does it mean for the rest of Europe?

对于欧洲其他地方来说，意味着什么？

France's Emmanuel Macron will be upset.

法国总统埃马纽埃尔•马克龙将会心烦意乱。

He wanted a stronger Merkel to help him push through eurozone reforms. This will now prove more complicated. German politics has just become more fragmented.

他本希望默克尔能更强有力地帮他促成欧元区的诸项改革，但现在，事情变得更麻烦了，德国政治已经变得更加支离破碎。

编译：Yee君

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