掸邦北部停火后，实皆省和马圭省可能会爆发严重战事
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本文译自缅甸缅文媒体cni myanmar
Battles might break out severely in Sagaing and Magway Regions after a ceasefire between the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan State, said military and political analysts.
军事和政治分析人士说，在缅军与掸邦北部的三兄弟联盟停火后，实皆省和马圭省可能会爆发严重战事。
When it was over two months since the Operation-1027 was launched on 27th October, discussions were held from 9th to 11th January after which the Tatmadaw and the Three brotherhood Alliance agreed to temporary ceasefire.
自10月27日启动1027行动以来，已经过去了两个多月，1月9日至11日举行了讨论，之后缅军和三兄弟联盟同意暂时停火。
The People Defense Force (PDF) troops who went and joined in the Operation-1027 led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance would come down to the mainland and there was also concern about the election, U Thet Zaw, a political commentator, told CNI News.
政治评论员U Thet Zaw告诉CNI新闻，参加由三兄弟联盟领导的1027行动的人民国防军（PDF）部队将前往大陆，并且对选举也感到担忧。
" Because the ceasefire has been conducted in northern Shan State, PDFs who went and joined in the Operation-1027 will come back to the mainland. To tell you frankly, PDFs don't like that a civilian government will arise.
“由于停火是在掸邦北部进行的，参加1027行动的PDF将返回大陆。坦率地说，PDF 不喜欢文职政府出现。
The NUG/CRPH, behind them, will push the PDFs so as not to enable the State Administration Council (SAC) to hold the election for their existence. So, it will be worrisome for the election.
在他们身后的NUG/CRPH将推动PDF，以免国家行政委员会（SAC）为他们的存在举行选举。因此，选举将是令人担忧的。
When the PDFs went and joined in the operation, the fighting in Sagaing and Magway Regions was much less. But now they are about to come back. If battles broke out again like in the past, it wouldn't be good." he said.
当PDF加入行动时，实皆省和马圭省的战斗要少得多。但现在他们即将回来。如果像过去那样再次爆发战斗，那就不好了，“他说。
The Operation-1027 led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA, TNLA and AA) contains the Bamar People Liberation Army (BPLA), the Mandalay People's Defense Force (MDY-PDF), the Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA) and the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
由三兄弟联盟（MNDAA、TNLA和AA）领导的1027行动包括巴马人民解放军（BPLA）、曼德勒人民国防军（MDY-PDF）、缅甸民族革命军（BNRA）和人民解放军（PLA）。
Most of the townships in northern Shan State have been captured by the Three Brotherhood Alliance and it could be generally said that their military objective has been achieved, U Than Soe Naing, a Myanmar political commentator, told CNI News.
掸邦北部的大多数城镇已被三兄弟联盟占领，可以普遍说他们的军事目标已经实现，缅甸政治评论员U Than Soe Naing告诉CNI新闻。
" Except for Lashio in northern Shan State, all the remaining regions have been controlled by the Three Brotherhood Alliance and their military objective is generally achieved. They might tackle Lashio like Laukkai. After the ceasefire, the city has been surrounded.
“ 除掸邦北部的腊戍外，其余地区均由三兄弟联盟控制，其军事目标大体上已实现。他们可能会像劳凯一样对付腊戍。停火后，这座城市被包围了。
Their military objective in northeastern part of the cuntry has ended. The operation has reached Naunghkio now. And then, it might reach Pyin Oo Lwin and Mandalay. The implemantation of that military objective was not included in the ceasefire agreement.
他们在该国东北部的军事目标已经结束。该行动现已到达Naunghkio。然后，它可能会到达彬乌伦和曼德勒。停火协定中没有包括实现这一军事目标。
At the same time, PDFs in Sagaing and Magway Regions might promote their military activities against the Tatmadaw and vice versa, I think." he said.
与此同时，实皆省和马圭省的PDF可能会促进他们对缅军的军事活动，反之亦然。
During the Operation-1027, the Three brotherhood Alliance has captured Laukkai, Kon Kyan,Kung Lon, Pangsai, Mong Ko, Phaung Sai, Theinni, Chin Shwe Haw, Namkham, Kutkai, Mang Ton, Nansang, Namtu, Mong Lon and Mong Ngor.
在1027年行动中，三兄弟联盟占领了Laukkai、Kon Kyan、Kung Lon、Pangsai、Mong Ko、Phaung Sai、Theinni、Chin Shwe Haw、Namkham、Kutkai、Mang Ton、Nansang、Namtu、Mong Lon和Mong Ngor。
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