“全球疫情会诊室”：新冠肺炎疫情何时能够结束？

在全球抗击新冠肺炎疫情的过程中，中国与非洲一直相互声援、并肩战斗。国家主席习近平在6月举行的中非团结抗疫特别峰会上也发表重要讲话，呼吁各方统筹资源，团结合作，尽最大努力保护人民生命安全和身体健康，最大限度降低疫情负面影响。

7月2日晚，中央广播电视总台中国国际电视台（CGTN）的“全球疫情会诊室”网络直播节目，邀请北京协和医院和广安门医院的抗疫专家与来自南非和肯尼亚的同行共同探讨了疫情最新热点问题。

据约翰斯·霍普金斯大学的数据，截至目前，南非新冠肺炎累计确诊病例已逾16.8万例，死亡病例2844例，继续位居非洲大陆新冠肺炎确诊病例首位。肯尼亚累计确诊病例6941，死亡152例。

In the latest episodes of CGTN's live stream program "COVID-19 Frontline" held on July 2, CGTN invited medical experts from China and Africa to exchange their views on treating COVID-19 patients and current situation of the pandemic. 

As of now, there have been 10,533,779 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, including 512,842 deaths, according to the WHO. 

中国、南非、赞比亚专家通过视频会议展开交流

 疫情什么时候可能会结束？ 

 When will COVID-19 disappear?  

自暴发以来，新冠肺炎疫情已在全球持续数月，且近期多国疫情出现反弹，防控进入常态化。那么，新冠病毒是否有可能会消失？疫情什么时候可能会结束？一名网友通过CGTN的脸书平台向专家们提出了这个问题。

北京协和医院消化内科副主任医师吴东回答说，从短期来看，疫情仍然在全球蔓延，一些国家的确诊病例数仍然在上升，可见疫情短期内不会结束。但是从长期来看，他表示非常乐观，因为从病毒进化史来看，最终很多病毒是可以和人类共存的，不会致人死亡。比如巨细胞病毒，80%到90%的病毒携带者都没有症状，这意味着该病毒已经适应了人体，可以与人类长期共存，新冠病毒的最终走向可能也会是这样。另外他指出，新冠肺炎疫苗研发也很有希望。

卫健委新冠病毒专家组成员、中国中医科学院广安门医院呼吸科主任医师李光熙对这一观点表示认同。他目前在沙特阿拉伯，为中国在当地的务工人员提供医疗服务。他补充道，此前大家预测随着温度升高，新冠病毒就会消失不见了，现在看来并不是这样。但是，根据他们对中国和沙特阿拉伯病人做的一个症状对比研究，发现随着时间的推移，感染新冠病毒的病人症状越来越轻了，不像一开始武汉有很多重症和危重症患者。因此他们判断，最终新冠病毒会和人类长期共存，病人症状也会越来越轻。

广安门医院呼吸科副主任医师刘志国也表达了类似的观点，他认为短期之内疫情走向还是要看各国政府和公众的防控力度，如果短期控制和治疗做得好，远期的负担就会少一些。另外还要寄希望于新冠疫苗的产生，如果能够研发出有效的疫苗且病毒的变异性不是特别强的话，新冠病毒可能就会被逐渐抑制住。他说，目前业内确实有一个共同的观点，就是随着时间的推移，新冠病毒会和人类长期共存，以后它导致人体产生的疾病可能会是新冠流感，类似于甲流或乙流，每年到冬春流感季节到来时，需要打一些流感疫苗来控制，同时发热门诊还要长期监测是否有不明原因肺炎出现。

As the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc around the world, people are wondering if there is any possibility for COVID-19 to disappear, and if so, when will it happen.

Wu Dong, associate professor from Peking Union Medical College Hospital, said COVID-19 wouldn't disappear in the short term. But he is optimistic about the future as history tells that viruses can coexist with humans.

Li Guangxi, director of Guang'anmen Hospital's Pulmonary Division, said by comparing demographic and clinical characteristics between the patients in Saudi Arabia and China, the symptoms of COVID-19 are gradually becoming less severe as time goes by. The severe patients with COVID-19 are not as many as in Wuhan during the first outbreak. In the long run, humans eventually will coexist with the virus.

Liu Zhiguo, deputy chief physician from Guang'anmen Hospital under the China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, agrees that COVID-19 will coexist with humans in the future. "We can place our hope in the novel coronavirus vaccine to a certain extent. If an effective vaccine is developed and the virus doesn't mutate much, then maybe the novel coronavirus can be gradually suppressed. In the future, we may also need to pay attention to novel coronavirus besides influenza A and B during flu season," Liu said.

 导致新冠肺炎病人死亡的主要原因是什么？ 

 What is the cause of death from COVID-19? 

肯尼亚临床医师联合会主席彼得森·瓦奇拉(Peterson Wachira)在节目里说，目前肯尼亚对新冠肺炎的病理学原理并不了解，他想知道导致新冠肺炎患者死亡的原因究竟是肺炎还是血栓，或者是其它什么原因。

吴东医生曾在武汉抗疫一线奋战了两个多月，主要工作是救治重症和危重症病人。他回答说，根据他们在武汉对五例新冠肺炎死亡病人的尸检结果来看，病人的肺部严重病变是导致死亡的一个重要原因。重症病人和危重症病人的肺部损伤非常严重，出现肺纤维化，尤其是二型肺泡上皮细胞严重受损，同时肺部一些气管也受到很大的影响，还会出现肺部微小静脉血栓，导致病人出现呼吸衰竭。

Peterson Wachira, national chairman of Kenya Union of Clinical Officers, wondered if there were any autopsies done on COVID-19 fatalities in China to further understand the cause of death. Was it due to pneumonia, thrombosis, or other pathophysiological causes?

Wu Dong said that autopsies on five patients in Wuhan showed that the patients had very severe pulmonary lesions. There was fibrosis in the lungs, and some of the air tubes in the lungs were also greatly affected. He considered the pathophysiological change in the lungs an important cause of death.

CGTN主持人邹韵在北京演播室

 导致新冠肺炎病人死亡的主要原因是什么？ 

来自南非的针灸医师安妮特·塞曼（Anette Saaiman）说，在南非，有糖尿病的患者更容易死于新冠肺炎，她想知道中国是否也有类似的情况。

李光熙医生回答，有糖尿病及其它基础疾病的人确实是新冠肺炎的易感人群。他的团队做了一个研究，发现不只是糖尿病，肥胖和有其他基础并发症的人也更容易感染，而且感染后病情更容易恶化。他举例说，当时传出英国首相约翰逊感染新冠病毒的消息后，他们预测到他可能会进入重症监护室，因为他属于肥胖人群，后来约翰逊确实病情恶化进入了重症监护室，所幸经过及时救治痊愈了。李医生补充说，如果是没有基础疾病、体重也正常的年轻人，感染后通常都不会发展成重症病人。

李光熙医生在节目中展示新冠肺炎的易感人群

 经济重启阶段应该采取什么样的公共卫生政策？ 

瓦奇拉医生介绍，肯尼亚正在准备重启经济，但是现在新冠肺炎的确诊病例仍然在迅速增加，他希望中国专家可以分享一下在经济重启阶段应该采取什么样的公共卫生政策来保障人民的生命健康安全。

吴东医生回答说，从个人角度，第一要保持社交距离，第二要戴口罩。从医疗系统从业人员的角度来讲，可以鼓励病人通过电话或网络进行线上诊疗。从政府的角度，可以参考北京市目前的做法，就是对易感人群做到应检尽检，找出所有潜在的病毒携带者和密切接触者，以控制传染源。

李光熙医生补充说，让复工的人在上岗前做核酸检测也是一个重要的举措，复工后也要保持社交距离，还要特别注意手部卫生。他们作为医护人员也会密切关注复工人员的身体健康状况，以便及时发现潜在的病毒携带者。

Peterson Wachira said Kenya has restarted the production for more than 100 days, and the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases is increasing rapidly. So he would like to know some safe management measures that can curb the spread of the virus.

Wu Dong said for individuals, the most important things are to keep a social distance and always wear a mask because you don't know who around you is carrying the virus and who isn't. Non-COVID-19 patients can choose to consult doctors online or by telephone, without necessarily going to the hospital, which can reduce their COVID-19 infection risk. From the government's perspective, susceptible people should be tested, which can help identify potential carriers.

Li Guangxi added that the economy shutdown couldn't last forever. But it's better to avoid crowd gathering. The ultimate goal is to control the infection rate as low as possible.

本场节目持续了一个多小时。自3月份以来，“全球疫情会诊室”节目已多次举办中非专场，邀请经验丰富的中国专家向非洲各国同行分享抗疫经验和复工复产经验，为助力非洲早日走出疫情影响贡献中国智慧和中国方案，受到了非洲专家的一致好评。

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