同异 ｜拜登的“小心思”：上台一年通过军事重返亚太
Ryan Hass, the senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, described the current China-U.S. relationship as in a state of "mutually tolerable friction," that there's a "renewal of a certain sense of professionalism" in conducting it.
布鲁金斯学会高级研究员何瑞恩（Ryan Hass）形容目前的中美关系处于“双方可接受的摩擦”状态。在处理双边关系方面，双方的专业性“有一定程度的回归”。
This is pretty much the consensus after a year into Joe Biden's administration. In my last video, I described his China policy as a Cold War strategy with realistic tactics. And the realistic tactics worked. There's the sense that tension is cooling across the board.
在拜登政府上任一年之际，这种看法基本上已经成为共识。在上一期的节目中，我称拜登的对华政策是带有一些现实策略的冷战政策。现实的手段确实奏效了，双边关系紧张的状态似乎正在全面缓和。
But there's one thing in the first year of Biden's Presidency that went against the sense. And that is the military encirclement of China.
但拜登政府在执政期间的一个举措却与这一趋势背道而驰，那就是对中国的军事包围。
Now, if you recall, when Biden was the vice president in the Obama administration, he was part of the so-called "Pivot to Asia" strategy. It was represented in a major trade agreement – the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – mainly an economic "counter" to China's growing influence.
大家可能还记得，拜登任职美国副总统期间，美国政府推出了所谓的“重返亚太”战略。《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》正是该战略的产物。这个贸易协定实质上是通过经济手段来“对抗”中国日益增加的影响力。
Today, instead of using trade as its face, it is now military.
如今，该战略由贸易主导转向了军事主导。
Here are some things the United States has done in Biden's first year.
我们来回顾一下拜登上任一年来美国政府的一些动作。
"The American military flew a record number of spy planes over the South China Sea in November."
“11月，飞越南海上空的美国军事侦察机数量创下新高。”
"The U.S. has also expanded its flight range last month by sending a patrol aircraft over the Taiwan Strait that came within about 16 nautical miles (29 kilometers, 18 miles) of China's territorial waters."
“过去一个月中，美国还扩大了其军机飞行范围，曾派出一架巡逻机飞越台湾海峡，距离中国大陆领海基线约16海里（29公里、18 英里）。”
"The Commander of the U.S. Seventh Fleet, Vice Admiral Karl Thomas, based in the Pacific region, called for a big increase in aircraft carriers for the region."
“驻扎在太平洋地区的美国第七舰队司令卡尔·托马斯中将呼吁大幅增加该地区的航母数量。”
And take a look at this.
我们再来看一下这张图。
In these 12 months of Joe Biden in office, these military alliances have come to the forefront.
在拜登上任以来的12个月里，这些军事同盟纷纷活跃起来。
Here's the Quad, made up of the United States, Japan, India and Australia.
比如美日印澳四国机制。
The AUKUS between the U.S., UK and Australia.
美英澳三边安保联盟协议。
The U.S. and Japan are close to signing a new five-year pact for Japan to support U.S. military forces in the country and a new agreement to research and develop new defense technologies.
美国和日本即将就日本为驻日美军提供支持签署一项新的五年协议。此外，两国还将针对研发新的国防科技签署新协议。
The Quad members, along with Canada and South Korea, have conducted a multinational exercise Sea Dragon at Guam.
四国机制成员与加拿大和韩国在关岛开展了代号“海龙”的联合军事演习。
Japan and Australia signed the Reciprocal Assessment Agreement.
日本和澳大利亚签署了《互惠准入协定》。
This list is by no means exhaustive. But already, you can see the map getting smudged by all kinds of colors. Think about this. What are you going to do if you have guns pointed at your house from all sides?
这些只是其中的几个例子。但大家可以看到，地图上已经布满了各种颜色。试想一下，如果四面八方都有枪对准你的房子，你会怎么做？
This is where that "mutually tolerable friction" could become intolerable. The nature of a military encirclement is to impose a direct threat on the target's national security. It's a classic play in international relations. At every turn of negotiation on any subject, there's going to be the constant reminder at the back of the head that there's a fleet of ships or a squadron of aircraft out there loaded with destructive materials pointed at you.
在这样的背景下，“双方可接受的摩擦”就会变得不可接受。军事包围的本质是对目标国的国家安全构成直接威胁。这是国际关系中的惯用手段。军事包围下，目标国在任何谈判中，总会下意识地想到有装载着杀伤性武器的舰队或飞机编队正在瞄准着自己。
And China has staunch territorial claims in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits.
并且，中国对南海和台湾海峡都拥有合法主权。
National security and territorial integrity; could you think of anything touchier than this? Is there anything that could more easily lead to war?
国家安全和领土完整——还有比这更敏感、更容易引发战争的话题吗？
Former Chinese Defense Ministry official, Senior Colonel Zhou Bo said that "When we come to the China-U.S. military relationship, I would say there is something in common that is neither side wants a conflict. But the reality is that all American ships sail in China's water and all American aircraft fly in China's Exclusive Economic Zone, and it's not the other way around. So if you do not want the water to boil, so why would you throw wood into the fire?"
中国国防部前官员 周波大校曾说：“谈到中美军事关系，我认为双方有一个共同点，就是都不希望发生冲突。但在现实中，是美国军舰频繁驶入中国海域，美国军机频繁闯入中国专属经济区，而不是反过来……既然你不希望局势升温, 为什么还要火上浇油呢？”
Why indeed.
是啊，为什么呢？