Fudan Monthly Briefing | 2020年3月第2期

Fudan Monthly Briefing

Volume I, Issue 2丨March 20th, 2020

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《Fudan Monthly Briefing》为复旦发展研究院选编的英文报告集，自2020年2月起，以月刊形式呈现。内容选自复旦大学各领域专家学者在国内外学术期刊、媒体发表的研究观点，旨在传播国内前沿议题，促进海外学者与智库专家对中国的了解。点击“阅读全文”可下载本期报告的PDF版本。

Page 01

Children's sleep duration affects mental health

Page 03

How can SMEs survive the epidemic

Page 06

Cooperation can strengthen global immunity to epidemics 

Page 09

Cyber colonialism and COVID-19: an (almost) Global Informative Pandemic

Page 13

Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees

Page 16

‘Butterfly Effect’ of COVID-19 in International Affairs

Page 18

Containment and solidarity

Children's sleep duration affects mental health

Feng Jianfeng, Published in Xinhuanet on 03 Feb, 2020

Although the scope of the coronavirus outbreak exceeds that of SARS in 2003, current data suggest that the epidemic will likely reach a turning point in the next two weeks. That would mean China might conquer the virus in the first quarter, which is essential to mitigating the epidemic’s impact on overall growth in 2020.

The study, led by Feng Jianfeng, a professor from Fudan University in Shanghai, examined the relationship between sleep duration and brain structure based on the data of 11,000 children aged 9 to 11.

"The children who sleep for less than seven hours were 53 percent more likely to have behavioral problems, while their cognitive total score was 7.8 percent lower on average compared to those with 9 to 11 hours' sleep," Feng said.

The study highlights the importance of getting enough sleep for both cognition and mental health in children, at a time when sleep disturbances are common among children and adolescents around the world, he noted.

Shorter sleep duration is associated with lower brain volumes of brain areas including the orbitofrontal cortex, prefrontal and temporal cortex, precuneus, and supramarginal gyrus, the team found.

The recommended amount of sleep for children 6 to 12 years of age is 9 to 12 hours, according to the team.

The results of the study have been published in the journal Molecular Psychiatry.

Full text link

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/13/c_138780570.htm

To read the results of the study

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41380-020-0663-2#auth-1

How can SMEs survive the epidemic?

Guobing Shen, Published in FDU Wechat on10 Feb, 2020

Resume operation and production, and increase trade and employment

Although China, as the world’s largest trader of goods and 2nd largest consumer of goods, cannot simply be “unpegged” from the rest of the world, it’s reported that the virus outbreak in China has triggered a severe global demand shock, posing a risk for almost every type of bulk commodity trade.

For China, its foreign trade has been mainly with the U.S., European and Japanese markets for their high-tech quality products, advanced equipment and expertise, as well as their well-developed economic systems. Therefore, it’s urgent for China to roll out feasible standards for the operation resumption, while keeping a tight grip on epidemic prevention at workplace at home. Intellectual property protection and institutional innovation should be further strengthened to improve the business environment and restore market confidence, so that more foreign investment and trade will come in and effectively help stabilize the employment rate.

Cut taxes and fees for the affected enterprises to pump liquidity

As of Feb. 6, China has adopted more than 10 fiscal measures to alleviate the burden of enterprises and individuals in the affected areas. These measures can help buttress epidemic-related expenditure, medical R&D investment, and emergency medical supply import; provide subsidies to front-line medical workers and medical supply manufacturers, and reduce or exempt the medical expenses of patients; and disclose information in a timely manner to prevent social unrest. On Feb. 3 and 4, China’s central bank conducted open market operations, injecting 1.7 trillion yuan ($1.19 trillion) to keep the liquidity of China’s banking system at a sufficient level.

Given such situation, the following approaches can be taken into account:

1.To reduce tax/fee, rent and social security payments for the affected enterprises in virus-hit areas;

2.To provide discount interest for enterprises producing epidemic-relief supplies;

3.To increase special refinancing, implement preferential interest rates, and strengthen financial support for manufacturers of medical supplies and daily necessities;

4.To enhance targeted liquidity support and financial support for small and micro businesses, private sectors and manufacturing industry;

5.To offer more credit loans (especially medium- and long-term loans), extend the repayment period for enterprises, and ensure enterprises in industries severely affected by the epidemic receive credit loans.

Promote trade and investment facilitation and public goods service

At this moment, commercial departments, financial institutions, local governments and chambers of commerce need to promote trade and investment facilitation and public goods service to support enterprises in market expansion.

1.China’s commercial counselors stationed abroad should work with cross-border e-commerce enterprises and their overseas branches to open “green channels” thereby facilitating the logistics of medical supplies and mobilizing both domestic and international markets and resources in this virus fight. Fees for customs clearance of medical supplies could be lifted under special circumstances.

2. Commercial and legal service departments need to better understand through dialogues the predicaments facing business owners, especially those engaged in foreign trade. The enterprises unable to resume production should be given necessary legal advice and information. Force majeure certificates can be issued for foreign trade enterprises failing to deliver on time due to the epidemic.

3.Commercial departments, financial institutions, local governments and chambers of commerce should keep in close contact with enterprises via the Internet, providing information on trade liberalization and investment facilitation and assisting qualified and competitive enterprises to expand their business in international markets.

Full text link

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/qY4qONBqRcugkpt5oserlA

Cooperation can strengthen global immunity to epidemics

Geeta Kochhar, published in China Daily on 11 Mar, 2020

Spring Festival is the most important festival in China. It is the Chinese New Year, and the holiday is an opportunity for a large number of Chinese people, both at home and abroad, to return to their hometowns to see out the old year and ring in the new with family and relatives. However, this year began on a very depressing note for many Chinese, just when they were busy preparing for Spring Festival. The news of a deadly virus hitting Wuhan and within days spreading like wildfire, caused fear and panic.

Although, it is not the first time China has faced a national level epidemic; the scale of the novel coronavirus worried even the most ordinary citizens living far away from Wuhan, Hubei province, where the virus emerged. Earlier, between November 2002 to July 2003, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak had a huge human cost in China. But the Chinese government and people were able to effectively control it and since 2004 there was no nationwide epidemic reported. The key questions are what has made the novel coronavirus epidemic such a global threat and what has China done to control it? In particular, are there any lessons for other countries to deal with the epidemic on their soil? No state is an exclusive entity in the present day world and the more we advance to a globalized interconnected world, the more local issues and problems no longer remain within the territorial domain of a particular state. Thus the current spread of the novel coronavirus is an issue of common concern and China's actions are worth assessing.

Building a large makeshift hospital in just 10 days to provide basic medical assessment and care of suspected cases of infection was unprecedented in the history of any nation. But, there are issues that need due attention in the present crisis. We need to understand that control or management of a particular disease does not mean that in future some new unknown disease will not threaten us. The chances of the epidemic reemerging remains high even if there seems to be a sharp decline in the number of new infections in China, as reports also suggest some cases where the treated patients show signs of reemergence of the disease. Environmental conditions and dietary habits need to be constantly checked to avoid animal-to-human transfer of diseases. Complete isolation from the world is impossible, and as the disease gets controlled in one area, the number of new cases may rise elsewhere, which is where the main challenge to all counter-measures lies.

In lieu of the above considerations, we need to be prepared for all kinds of disasters that threaten human existence, armed with a focus on deeper scientific research. As China has experience in successfully dealing with the SARS outbreak and has even managed to restrict the novel coronavirus death rate to only 2 to 3 percent of the total more than 80,000 affected cases, there surely are lessons for many other countries to learn. China's fight against the coronavirus outbreak has shown that individual's awareness along with timely intervention of local actors as well as state bodies can prevent the spread of a pathogen to a large extent. It has been proven that the collective efforts of communities and ruling authorities are the need of the hour to control the scale of the epidemic. The novel coronavirus outbreak has raised the public health consciousness of people around the world and rooted the notion of people-centric development as one of the underlining requirements for human security.

While development and security goals have been the main priorities for almost all developing countries, especially China and India; the objectives of development need to be broadened from just rooting out poverty to the overall well-being of citizens. The United Nations Human Development Report of 1994 calls for expanding the notions of threats to human existence in contemporary times by including both "freedom from fear" and "freedom from want".

Protection and advancement of individuals within societies is significant to counter the new challenges nature and evolving human societies face in changing times. As our social environment undergoes change, our ability to adapt many times falls short of what is required for the severe challenges around us.

Therefore, sustainable protection against diseases and access to healthcare facilities should be made globally available. As countries pursue goals to ensure the material well-being of their citizens, the nature of unforeseen and unknown diseases create existential vulnerabilities that individual states cannot deal with on their own. Hence management networks are needed both regionally and globally to produce a pool of resources, comprising medical practitioners, medical equipment and medicines and services. China, which has rich experience in countering epidemics, can and should be a pioneer in advancing such networks for the well-being of humanity.

Full text link

https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/11/WS5e6821a6a31012821727dfa6.html

Cyber colonialism and COVID-19: an (almost) Global Informative Pandemic

Daniel Barredo Ibáñez, published in People’s Daily wechat on 13 Mar, 2020

In Colombia, so far this year, there have been 23 deaths from dengue -a disease transmitted by a mosquito bite-, and about 12,217 cases reported by the National Institute of Health. Meanwhile, a single case of death or infection by coronavirus or COVID-19 has not yet been registered. However, when typing in a popular western search engine "dengue Colombia", only 47 news items associated with this "epidemic" appear. While typing "coronavirus Colombia", we located 6,310 informative results.

What's going on? Why is there so little interest in an issue that affects the country, to the point that the Colombian health authorities describe it as an "epidemic" -we refer to dengue-, and, instead, there is an informational coverage overrepresented in another issue in which there is still no record of infected people?

The origin of this controversy is in the dynamics of the so-called digital public opinion, that is, that collective space of participation that has been globalized through information and communication technologies. This enclave is increasingly important for most of the population of the globe, due to aspects such as the reduction of the technological gap, greater digital literacy, and an interconnection between the professional sphere and the private sphere.

Instead of tending to fragmentation, to the consolidation of options linked to a greater diversity of communities or groups, the Internet has been configured as a fertile ground for cultural domination, through what some authors have called “cyber colonialism". That is, the adaptation of colonialist and imperialist practices to technological mediation.

This domination is supported, in the first place, by the concentration of access to the audiences: as it was stated in a report of the Reuters Institute, of 2018, "platform companies control access to audiences" against the media. In addition, these platforms tend also to concentrate areas such as the advertising market: in the case of the United States, only 5 companies (Google, Facebook, Twitter, Microsoft and Yahoo!) obtained in 2016 about 7 out of every 10 dollars of online advertising investment, according to the Pew Research Center.

But, secondly, there is a reciprocal relationship between these platforms and the United States government. Just to give a collaborative example, in 2016 there was a leak of data from 50 million Facebook users - in the case of Cambridge Analytica. These data were used to guide persuasive strategic tactics in favor of the candidate Donald Trump, in the US presidential campaign celebrated that year.

For its part, the government of Donald Trump returns these favors by overreacting against countries that discuss the (almost) global hegemony of that country's technology. In 2019, for example, the government of the United States announced tariffs of 100% of the products of France for the impulse of this country to the so-called "Google rate". This rate advocates imposing a special tax for major American technology companies.

The Internet, in the western case, has become a geostrategic enclave. Cyber colonialism tries to erode differentiated, heterogeneous perspectives, in order to implement a uniform approach that helps to extend the benefits of cultural industries and, with them, the popularity of the government that shelters them. From that angle, the aim is to facilitate the sale of products and services by exporting the usage profiles to other companies. That is, convert citizens into consumers, with the elimination of cultural differentiation, the development of compact political ideals, and the establishment of universal information agendas.

Cyber colonialism employs numerous tactics to promote the cultural appropriation of the world imaginaries. Among them, the massive implementation of social bots stands out. They are automated communication systems that are responsible for recirculating content, monitoring dissenting content, interacting with other users, ultimately building an artificial participation, responsible for generating chaos and misinformation. According to the "Bot Traffic Report 2016", in fact, in 2016, it was observed that more than half of internet traffic in western countries could be a contribution of these social bots.

One of the tasks of these bots is the dissemination of the so-called fake news, which are content originated by the need to dilute the promotion or promote the generation of simulated opinion currents. These contents have gained prominence, with the progressive transfer of the audiences -and, with them, of the advertisers-, to the Internet. According to the "Technological Predictions for 2018", a report by Gartner consultant, in 2022 there will be greater consumption of fake news in western countries than of authentic news. Through the persistent dissemination of these contents created with spurious interests, there is an attempt to silence objectivity, create an atmosphere of artificial public opinion, or even generate social alarmism, as it seems to be the case with COVID-19.

Cyber colonialism is precisely one of the lessons that the emergence of COVID-19 is leaving us. For that reason, western countries should be vaccinated by establishing greater internet regulation. From that regulation, those technological platforms that do not verify the contents they disseminate, and that exclude the recognition of the realities of some countries to impose tactics mediated by a neo-colonial vision, should be strongly penalized. Interestingly, internet regulation must be understood as a liberating aspiration, encouraging more recognition of one's own problems, and the transformation of internet consumers into citizens.

In that sense, the western countries must learn from the Chinese example, whose economic miracle is partly explained because from decades ago, it was understood that the network is not a neutral or a massive space. On the contrary, in the western countries access to audiences has been built through large technological platforms that are responsible for contributing to mass espionage, data filtration, covert promotion of organizations and institutions, and instability of political systems. China, to combat these neocolonial mechanisms, built its own internet, with cultural specificity, and respect for its history and society.

Thanks to the regulation of the Internet, we hope that in the near future public opinion in countries such as Colombia, people can access to more contents that, as with dengue, have a sad deadly impact; instead of those other contents whose massification seems an artificial symptom stimulated by the contemporary geostrategic battlefield: cyberspace.

Full text  (in Chinese) link

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/BjjV0jUB-YUmrjp9BdXFHA

Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees

Shibo Jiang, published in Nature on 16 Mar., 2020

Some fear that China’s coronavirus outbreak will be a major drag on China’s and global growth rates. But three important factors may limit the virus’s impact.

Around the world, I am seeing efforts to support ‘quick-fix’ programmes aimed at developing vaccines and therapeutics against COVID-19. Groups in the United States and China are already planning to test vaccines in healthy human volunteers. Make no mistake, it’s essential that we work as hard and fast as possible to develop drugs and vaccines that are widely available across the world. But it is important not to cut corners.

Vaccines for measles, mumps, rubella, polio, smallpox and influenza have a long history of safe use and were developed in line with requirements of regulatory agencies.

I have worked to develop vaccines and treatments for coronaviruses since 2003, when the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak happened. In my view, standard protocols are essential for safeguarding health. Before allowing use of a COVID-19 vaccine in humans, regulators should evaluate safety with a range of virus strains and in more than one animal model. They should also demand strong preclinical evidence that the experimental vaccines prevent infection, even though that will probably mean waiting weeks or even months for the models to become available.

That is time well spent. Work with the SARS virus shows that worrying immune responses were seen in ferrets and monkeys, but not in mice. Also, some viral protein fragments can elicit more potent or less risky immune responses than others, and it makes sense to learn this in animal studies before trying them in people.

Governments are understandably desperate for anything that would forestall the deaths, closures and quarantines resulting from COVID-19. But combating this disease demands a vaccine that is safe and potent. The fatality rate is low (3.4% by the World Health Organization’s latest estimate, although this is highly uncertain), yet transmission rates are high and the spread is difficult to track. That means many people — perhaps the majority in hotspots — would need to be vaccinated to stop the spread and prevent deaths. By contrast, Ebola virus has very high fatality rates (averaging around 50%, but varying from 25% to 90%), yet is less contagious, so vaccination can be more targeted.

Decades ago, vaccines developed against another coronavirus, feline infectious peritonitis virus, increased cats’ risk of developing the disease caused by the virus (T. Takano et al. J. Vet. Med. Sci. 81, 911–915; 2019). Similar phenomena have been seen in animal studies for other viruses, including the coronavirus that causes SARS (Y. W. Kam et al. Vaccine 25, 729–740; 2007).

Regulators must continue to require that vaccine developers check for potentially harmful responses in animal studies. They must also be careful to assess healthy human volunteers for antibodies against any coronaviruses before enrolling them in safety trials. Funders should beware of hype, and release more grants for appropriate tests for coronavirus drug and vaccine development.

China is advancing several COVID-19 vaccines of different types, and has announced plans to have products in human tests or emergency use in healthy people in April. My worry is that this could mean a vaccine is administered before its efficacy and safety have been fully evaluated in animal models or clinical trials. And in the United States, the biotechnology company Moderna in Norwood, Massachusetts, has shipped an experimental vaccine based on messenger RNA to the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) in Bethesda, Maryland, for testing in a clinical trial. The mRNA-based platform for delivering vaccines has been shown to be safe in humans, but this COVID-19 vaccine has not. The NIAID argues that the risk of delaying the advancement of vaccines is much higher than the risk of causing illness in healthy volunteers, but I worry that vaccine developers will rush in too hastily if standards are lowered.

More than 100 COVID-19 treatments are listed in China’s public clinical-trials registry. Most of these involve a drug that has already been approved for another disease. That means that they do not act specifically against human coronaviruses and have not been tested in COVID-19 animal models, even though that would usually be required by Chinese regulators. What is more, trials done to gain approval of the treatment for other diseases often do not consider combinations with other drugs. The potential for synergistic toxicity needs to be assessed before such ‘old’ drugs enter COVID-19 treatment regimes.

Another factor should also be considered: the potential for emerging and re-emerging coronaviruses to cause future outbreaks. The virus behind COVID-19 might well mutate in ways that would make previously effective vaccines and antivirals useless. Therefore, any regulatory agency considering ways to accelerate treatments into testing should also weigh up how likely these drugs are to work beyond this particular coronavirus.

Testing vaccines and medicines without taking the time to fully understand safety risks could bring unwarranted setbacks during the current pandemic, and into the future. The public’s willingness to back quarantines and other public-health measures to slow spread tends to correlate with how much people trust the government’s health advice. A rush into potentially risky vaccines and therapies will betray that trust and discourage work to develop better assessments. Despite the genuine need for urgency, the old saying holds: measure twice, cut once.

Full text link

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00751-9

‘Butterfly Effect’ of COVID-19 in International Affairs

Feng Yujun，published in Valdai Discussion Club on 16 Mar, 2020

The spread of COVID19 has caused global tension and had a huge and widespread impact on international affairs. A number of important diplomatic events have been cancelled, which of course leaves important issues on the back burner without timely discussion. However, technologies such as online video conferencing can also help us to some extent overcome difficulties: that we cannot discuss face to face, communicate on urgent and important issues such as joint efforts against coronavirus, and develop international cooperation. At the same time, the forced cancellation of some diplomatic activity is not all bad. Russia’s initiative to convene consultations among the heads of the five great powers at the UN General Assembly in 2020 may also be off the table, but what’s the point of sitting around and even bickering when the big shots lack a basic consensus on some major issues? Better to sit at home and have a cup of tea and think calmly about how to solve these big problems.

Compared with many polite diplomatic activities, the COVID-19 outbreak is an “acute shock” to the world economy and the process of globalization, and its impact will be far-reaching and extensive. One is that the already slowing world economy will take a further hit, with many countries facing multiple risks of an oil price crisis, a financial crisis and recession. Second, there will be a large decline in international trade, and the global supply chain model is being more and more questioned. In the future, the trend of localization of production and supply chains will be strengthened, which will profoundly affect the picture of the globalized world after the end of the Cold War, and the scale and speed of the global free movement of goods, services and capital will be greatly reduced. Third, the large-scale cross-border personnel exchanges after the end of the Cold War may also encounter obstacles. Will the Schengen area still exist in the future? Will the flow of people within the EAEU continue?

We have to worry that the global spread of COVID-19 is like a butterfly, and that it could cause hurricanes that are longer and stronger than we can currently predict.

Full text link

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/butterfly-effect-of-covid-19/

Containment and solidarity

Alessandro Albana, published in China Daily on 19 Mar, 2020

Italy and the rest of Europe have much to learn from China's fight against the novel coronavirus

When President Xi Jinping visited Wuhan, capital of Hubei province, on March 10, it signaled that China's efforts to contain the coronavirus had paid off and the worst was believed to be over. For Italy, the contrary has happened, and the situation has worsened to the extent that government has declared a nationwide lockdown after the number of infected citizens reached more than 10,000.

Not long before, China had been subject to wide international criticism for the toughness of its containment measures in Wuhan and Hubei province. But after the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus worldwide, and the World Health Organization declaring it a pandemic, China's containment and mitigation strategy is no longer subjected to criticism.

If Italy was the first country to impose a nationwide lockdown, partly enacting measures already implemented by the authorities in Wuhan and Hubei province, the approach now seems to have become the model for the entire European Union, although not all countries are complying in the same manner and at the same speed.

However, at this stage, limiting people's physical interactions is probably the only viable option to slow down the spread of the virus and avoid the collapse of national healthcare systems. Way before this epiphany occurred, the WHO after its fact-finding mission in China in February, remarked that "China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history". In their comprehensiveness and toughness, China's efforts to contain the virus have now gained international recognition for their success and become the model for tackling the spread of the virus.

In locking down Hubei province and swiftly mobilizing medical personnel to converge there, along with the swift construction of makeshift hospitals, China succeeded in preventing the virus spreading freely from Hubei to other provinces, preventing a potential catastrophe for China's healthcare system nationwide. Importantly, it should be remembered that all this occurred on the eve of the Chinese New Year, a national holiday that entails the largest human migration in the world, involving hundreds of millions of people.

It seems again a lesson to be learned carefully by Italy, where the poorer Southern regions lag way behind the North of the country in terms of facilities and number of medical personnel and intensive-care beds. The bottom line here is that, if the novel coronavirus hits Southern Italy as it did the North－and it is worth noting that Emilia-Romagna, Veneto and most of all Lombardy, which are the epicenter of the outbreak in the country, have the best healthcare facilities in Italy－the risk of a collapse of the healthcare system in those regions is real and that has catastrophic implications for the national healthcare system and the safety of the population. It is not to be forgotten that, when news of the lockdown measures to be implemented only in Lombardy were improperly leaked by the press before their final approval, tens of thousands of migrant workers and students literally assaulted train and bus stations－mostly in Milan, the region's main city－to return to their hometowns in the South, which could result in the spread of the coronavirus to Southern regions. Here also there is much to learn from China, where the population demonstrated commitment, responsibility and cohesion in complying with the painful but necessary measures. As the WHO has recognized, the Chinese population demonstrated "an exceptionally high degree of understanding and acceptance of these measures" and a profound commitment to act in a collective manner in order to tackle a common threat.

Last, but certainly not least, a lesson Europe and Italy should learn thoroughly if they want to turn the ongoing crisis into an opportunity, is provided by China's commitment to global solidarity and cooperation. After a phone call between China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Italian counterpart Luigi Di Maio, a charter flight from China arrived in Rome in the night of March 12, carrying nine Chinese medical experts in the fight against coronavirus and tons of medical equipment such as 100,000 high-tech masks and 20,000 protective suits, 50,000 swabs and 1,000 pulmonary ventilators. At the same time, videos and messages of support from Chinese people have spread on social networks, websites and news outlets, making Italians acquainted with "Zhongguo Jiayou" (Stay strong, China) and "Yidali Jiayou" (Stay strong, Italy). All of that was happening while other EU countries were shutting their borders with Italy and EU institutions took quite a long time to agree on a clear and reasonable financial commitment to help the country mitigate the catastrophic effects of the coronavirus on its already unsteady economic system.

As the global scale of the novel coronavirus outbreak was no longer a matter of debate, China made quick and concrete actions to help Italy. A lesson to be learned, remembered and replicated every time the need arises.

Full text link

https://epaper.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/19/WS5e72caf0a310a2fabb7a30ad.html

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