“外卡”之年:两党极化背景下的独立参选者如何撬动2024大选?
The following article is from 复旦中美友好互信合作计划 Author 潘弘林
* “中美友好互信合作计划”是由复旦发展研究院和丰实集团共同打造的中美关系研究的学术平台
在两党极化背景下,由于选民不希望看到特朗普-拜登对垒再次出现,以及公众对两人年龄的担忧,2024年大选的独立候选人正在吸引越来越多的支持。总体而言,目前的独立候选人更有可能分走拜登的选票,在摇摆州对民主党选情产生更大的负面影响。
已知的独立参选者:他们会分走谁的选票?
政治极化加剧,中间选民期待更多候选人
1948选举再现:拜登和特朗普将如何动员整合各自联盟
“Biden Targets Trump in Speech, Defending Democracy as “Sacred.”” Voice of America, 5 Jan. 2024, www.voanews.com/a/biden-targets-trump-in-speech-defending-democracy-as-sacred-cause-/7428978.html. Accessed 18 Feb. 2024.
“Biden Turns 81 as Questions about Age Continue to Dominate 2024 Race.” ABC News, abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-turns-81-questions-age-continue-dominate-2024/story?id=104984287.
“Bloomberg - Are You a Robot?” Www.bloomberg.com, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-15/third-party-candidates-in-2024-election-face-an-uphill-battle-ralph-nader-says. Accessed 18 Feb. 2024.
Fortinsky, Sarah. “Manchin Promises Not to Be 2024 Election “Spoiler.”” The Hill, 14 Jan. 2024, thehill.com/homenews/senate/4408131-manchin-promises-not-to-be-2024-election-spoiler/. Accessed 18 Feb. 2024.
Huynh, Anjali. “Young Voters Are Voicing Discontent: “I Don’t Want a Biden-Trump Rematch.”” The New York Times, 5 Jan. 2024, www.nytimes.com/2024/01/05/us/politics/young-voters-biden-trump-2024.html.
“Many Americans Feel Represented by the Two Major Parties, but a Sizable Share Wish They Had Other Choices.” Pew Research Center - U.S. Politics & Policy, www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/how-well-the-major-parties-represent-americans-the-publics-feelings-about-more-political-parties/pp_2023-09-19_views-of-politics_09-01/. Accessed 18 Feb. 2024.
Mason, Jeff, et al. “How RFK Jr. Could Hurt Biden, Trump in 2024 Election with Independent Bid.” Reuters, 3 Oct. 2023, www.reuters.com/world/us/how-rfk-jr-could-hurt-biden-trump-2024-election-with-independent-bid-2023-10-03/.
“New Poll Finds Many Americans Feel Biden, Trump Are Both Too Old to Be President.” ABC7 Chicago, 12 Feb. 2024, abc7chicago.com/presidential-election-2024-age-biden-trump-polls/14414171/. Accessed 18 Feb. 2024.
O’Brien, Rebecca Davis. “Why the Age Issue Is Hurting Biden so Much More than Trump.” The New York Times, 10 Feb. 2024, www.nytimes.com/2024/02/10/us/politics/biden-trump-aging.html.
PEOPLES, STEVE . “Progressive Activist Cornel West Leaves the Green Party and Will Run for President as an Independent.” AP News, 5 Oct. 2023, apnews.com/article/cornel-west-president-independent-green-party-2024-57dd7dbc0bccc10ea866005663398823.
Rakich, Nathaniel . “Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Spoil the Election for Biden — or Trump?” ABC News, abcnews.go.com/538/robert-kennedy-jr-spoil-election-biden-trump/story?id=103958584.
Salam, Erum. ““Grumpy Old Men”: Nikki Haley Targets Biden and Trump’s Age in New Ads.” The Guardian, 1 Feb. 2024, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/31/nikki-haley-new-ads-joe-biden-donald-trump-age. Accessed 18 Feb. 2024.
States, Donald J. Trump 45th President of the United. “Donald Trump: I Will Make America Great Again for Young People.” Newsweek, 29 Nov. 2023, www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-i-will-make-america-great-again-young-people-opinion-1847738. Accessed 18 Feb. 2024.
“Third-Party Candidates Pose New Threat to Biden Re-Election Bid.” Www.ft.com, www.ft.com/content/212c5b12-ec60-42c6-9fcf-04058a143be0.
“Will Cornel West Turn the 2024 Presidential Election into a Rerun of 1948?” Brookings, www.brookings.edu/articles/will-cornel-west-turn-the-2024-presidential-election-into-a-rerun-of-1948/.
欢迎关注公众号!微信编辑:那一佳如有投稿,请直接发至xinyanyan@fudan.edu.cn或zhongmeihuxin@163.com。一经录用将有稿费奉上。
巴基斯坦大选:未定的未来和美国的沉默
从国会山到白宫:“工具化”的边境法案如何牵动选情?
美国芯片制造业回流项目难达预期,根源还是在自身
沙利文的这次“交底”,揭示了美国对华“新战略”
旧金山愿景在曼谷:王毅与沙利文会晤后的中美关系新动向
往期回顾