【独家】美国前副财长眼中的“北京习特会”
后天（11月8日），美国总统特朗普就将抵达北京，开启他上任以来的首次中国之行。
与特朗普同行的还有美国商务部长罗斯率领的由多家企业高管组成的商贸代表团。毫无疑问，经贸问题仍将是此次中美元首会晤的一大重头戏。
作为今年4月“习特会”期间取得的最重要成果之一，中美两国开启了经济合作百日计划，并很快达成了一系列成果。但此后，特朗普重启“301调查”等行动又为两国经贸关系蒙上了一层阴影。特朗普对中国的贸易政策立场是否会通过此次访华有所“软化”？两国此次可能会在哪些领域取得有利成果和突破？
应中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）秘书处之邀，美国财政部前副部长Nathan Sheets发表了他对特朗普访华的看法，以下为中英文访谈实录（注：中文实录由CF40秘书处翻译）。
Nathan Sheets是美国彼得森国际经济研究所（PIIE）访问学者，曾任美国财政部国际事务副部长、花旗集团国际经济研究主管、美联储国际金融部负责人，系美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）三位经济学家之一。他曾就中国经济再平衡与去杠杆等问题发表观点，认为经济再平衡和去杠杆是相互影响和促进的过程，也是中国实现经济可持续发展的关键，中国必须加速市场化改革来推动上述进程。
Nathan Sheets
CF40：您对特朗普总统首次访华有何期待? 特朗普对中国的贸易政策立场会“软化”吗？ 中国需要做什么准备？
Nathan Sheets：世界密切关注特朗普总统的首次访华。特朗普政府仍在努力确立对华经济政策的立场。美国政府内部在对华应采取多么强硬的立场或者是应在多大程度上寻求互惠成果的问题上有多种意见。政府内部的怀疑论者（我认为是错误地）认为，美国和中国之间的互动整体上已经损害了美国的经济。为此，总统访问的基调将具有重大意义。他是否寻求共同点以及有共同利益的领域？还是更重视分歧和抱怨？鉴于所有这些，会晤能够取得的有意义的实际成果的范围是有限的。最好的结果是，像几个月前的海湖庄园会晤一样，这次访问提出了一个关于未来关系的愿景并确定了双方在谈判中关注的问题。
为了取得有利的成果，中国也可能有必要加快推进一些基本的经济改革。特朗普政府会期望中国能够对美国贸易与投资进一步开放市场。另外，中国需要加大力度解决重点行业的产能过剩问题。
CF40：中美有共同利益的领域是什么？潜在的合作领域有哪些？
Nathan Sheets：美国和中国有着共同利益的领域是广泛和多样的。作为世界上最大的两个经济体，两国在全球经济和金融体系的稳定以及世界地缘政治、外交和安全等方面都有重大利益。这些共同的利害关系已经成为两国几十年来双边关系和对话的基础。
鉴于这样的现实，中美之间的关系过去是基于“分离原则”的。双方在有共同利益的领域取得了进展，同时也在意见不合的问题上积极表达诉求。据我所知，这对两国都有好处。
今后的问题是这一模式是否会继续。目前，美国政府更重视经济关系中的分歧，如中国对美国双边贸易顺差的规模、中国在钢铁和铝等行业的产能规模、中国与朝鲜的经济互动等。我们面临的一个现实风险是这些分歧会超出和阻碍其他共同利益领域的进展。
一个正面性的议程应该是什么样的？首先，在上届政府执政末期，双方在高质量的双边投资协定方面取得了良好的进展。这类协议有望使两国受益。这将有助于美国公司在中国获得公平的竞争环境，激励中国的经济改革，同时也使中国公司对在美国参与竞争有清晰的预期。另一个互利的领域是进一步鼓励中国在全球体系中成为负责任的利益相关者。在此方面，双方可以继续共同努力改革和加强货币基金组织、世界银行和其他多边开发银行的运作。一项更加雄心勃勃的工作是共同努力加强多边贸易体系。这些只是从相互合作中受益的一些例子。
CF40：中国在美国的并购遇到了监管障碍，特别是在半导体等高科技行业。 在特朗普访问期间是否有可能在相关问题上取得突破？
Nathan Sheets：中国收购现有的美国公司将受美国外国投资委员会（CFIUS）的审查。 CFIUS的法定职权具体而细致。所考虑的唯一问题是拟议的收购是否会对美国构成任何国家安全威胁。CFIUS的评估过程是受限的，法令中列出了关键的要素。
鉴于CFIUS程序是由美国法律决定的，这不是一个政府有很大谈判灵活性的领域。美方可以努力更好地解释审查如何运作和所期望的情况，但没有国会的行动，政府在修改审查要素方面没有多大余地。但是，截至目前国会提出的建议正好相反。在扩大CFIUS的职权范围，给予其审查过程更大的灵活性甚至拒绝外国投资进入美国方面，已经有很强的政治支持。
有强有力的证据表明，外国投资促进了美国的经济增长和就业。美国必须保持对这种流入的开放态度。同样，美国有合法的国家安全利益需要保护，而考虑到美国投资的外国公司必须认识到这一事实。我认为CFIUS程序的结构在平衡这些顾虑方面做得很好。一个更加棘手的问题是，美国是否也有应该受到保护的经济利益。我的直觉是总的来说允许外资流入对经济有好处。但即使如此，确保美国有工具来应付外国收购某一有关键技术行业中的大批公司的做法也是合理的。
CF40：杰罗姆·鲍威尔领导下的美联储货币政策将走向何方？对中国货币政策、人民币等可能产生哪些潜在影响？
Nathan Sheets：杰罗姆•鲍威尔领导下的美联储货币政策可能会与近年来的政策走向基本一致。考虑到通货膨胀和失业的表现，加息可能会持续，但加息的速度将会是渐进的。无论如何，这都取决于即将到来的经济数据。美联储将继续缓慢削减其资产负债表，并将尽最大努力向公众和市场传达其政策的机理。在金融监管方面，鲍威尔领导下的美联储可能会继续寻求一个强劲、资本充足的金融体系。在此基础上，美联储将会寻找缓和监管要求的机会，只要这样的行动不至于危及金融稳定。这可能包括重新调整强化杠杆率要求、修改沃尔克规则，以及放松美联储的压力测试。
所有这些对中国的影响可能有限。美联储的政策将保持常规性和可预测性，与近期的历史相比不会有什么意外。更大的问题关乎美国经济的总体前景。这方面情况似乎也是相当有利的，在未来的一年里，美国经济预计将继续保持稳健而相对平衡的增长。
英文实录：
CF40:Expectations for President Trump’s first visit to China? WillTrump’s position on trade policy be “softened” when he goes to China? What preparations are needed for China?
Nathan Sheets:The world will be watching closely as President Trump arrives for his first visit in China. The Trump Administration is still workingthrough the stance of its economic policies toward China. There are a variety of views within the Administration as to how strident the United States should be in its relationship with China or, alternatively, the scope for seeking mutually beneficial outcomes. The skeptics in the Administration have argued, incorrectly I believe, that the interactions betweenthe United States and China have on net damaged the U.S. economy. For this reason, the tone of the President’s visit will have great significance. Does he seek common ground and areas of joint interest? Or is there more emphasis on disagreements and complaints? Given all of this, the scope for meaningful concrete deliverables is limited. The bestcase outcome is that, like Mar-a-Lago some months ago, the visit gives rise to a vision for the relationship going forward and identifies issues for the two sides to focus on in their negotiations.
To achieve a favorable outcome,it will likely also be necessary for China to accelerate its progress on some fundamental economic reforms. The Administration will be looking for China to get traction on further opening its markets to U.S. trade and investment. In addition, China will need to strengthen its efforts to address excess capacity in key sectors.
CF40:What are the areas of common interest between China and the United States? Potential areas of cooperation?
Nathan Sheets:The areas of common interest between the United States and China are broad and diverse. As the world’s two largest economies, both countries are deeply invested in the stability of the global economy and financial system, as well as the world’s geopolitical, diplomatic, and security functioning. These over-arching common interests have formed the basis for the bilateral relationship and dialogue between the two countries for decades.
Given this reality, the relationship between the United States and China has in the past functioned according to something of a “separation principle.” The two sides have worked to make progress on areas of common interest, while also vigorously litigating issues of disagreement. By my reckoning, this has served both countries well.
The question going forward is whether this approach continues. At present, the U.S. Administration is placing more emphasis on areas of disagreement in the economic relationship—for example, the size of China’s bilateral trade surplus with the United States, the magnitude of Chinese capacity in industries such as steel and aluminum, and the nature of China’s economic interactions with North Korea. There is a real risk that these issues of disagreement will overshadowand stymie progress on other common interests.
What might an affirmative agenda look like? First, in the closing days of the previous Administration, the two sides were making good progress toward a high-quality Bilateral Investment Treaty. This kind of agreement holds the prospect of benefiting both countries. It would help level theplaying field for U.S. firms in China, motivate reforms in the Chinese economy,and also layout transparently what Chinese firms can expect as they compete in the United States. Further steps to encourage China to act a responsible stakeholder in the global system would also be mutually beneficial. Consistent with this, the two sides could work together to continue to reform and strengthen the functioning of the IMF, World Bank, and other MDBs. A more ambitious undertaking would be joint efforts to bolster and strengthen the multilateral trading system. These are just examples of areas that would benefit from mutual collaboration.
CF40:China’s M&A in the United States has encountered regulatory obstacles, particularly in high-tech industries such as semiconductors. Is it possible to make a break-through on relevant issues during Trump’s visit?
Nathan Sheets:Chinese acquisitions of existing U.S. firms are subject to review under the CFIUS framework. The statutory mandate of CFIUS is specificand concrete. The single issue considered is whether the proposed take over poses any national security threats to the United States. The process that CFIUS u 49 31170 49 15287 0 0 2355 0 0:00:13 0:00:06 0:00:07 2794 49 31170 49 15287 0 0 2134 0 0:00:14 0:00:07 0:00:07 3161ses to evaluate this question is disciplined, with key elements also outlined in statute.
Given that the features of the CFIUS process are determined by U.S. law, this is not an area where the Administration has much negotiating flexibility. The United States can make efforts to better explain how the review works and what is expected, but there is little scope to modify the parameters of the review without action from Congress. To this point, however, there are currently proposals circulating in Congress that would go in exactly the opposite direction. There is significant political support for expanding the remit of CFIUS to give the process greater flexibility to review and, possibly, reject foreign investment into the United States.
There is strong evidence that foreign investment into the United States stimulates U.S. growth and employment. It is imperative that the United States remain open to such inflows. By the same token, the United States has legitimate national security interests that need to be protected, and foreign firms considering investment in the United States must be cognizant of this fact. My feeling is that the structure of the CFIUSprocess has done a good job of balancing these offsetting considerations. A tougher question is whether the United States also has economic interests that should be protected. My instinct is that, in general, the economy is best served by allowing foreign investment to flow. But even there, a case can be made that it is appropriate for the United States to have tools to address a concerted effortby a foreign country to acquire a large swath of an industry that produces some critical technology.
CF40:Fed monetary policy under Jerome Powell? Potential impacts on China’s monetary policy, the RMB, etc.
Nathan Sheets:Federal Reserve monetary policy under Jerome Powell is likely to continue on a trajectory that is broadly consistent with what has been seen in recent years. Given the behavior of inflation and unemployment, rate hikes are likely to continue—but at a pace that will remain gradual and, in any event, that will depend on the features of the incoming economic data. The Fed will continue to slowly pare its balance sheet, and will do its best to communicate the overall rationales for its policies to the public and the markets. On financial regulation, the Powell Fed is likely to continue to pursue policies to encourage a strong and well-capitalized financial system. That said, the Fed will now be looking for opportunities to temper regulatory demands, to the extent that such actions can be taken without jeopardizing financial stability. This could include somere calibration of the enhanced leverage ratio, modifications to the Volckerrule, and some easing of the Fed’s stress tests.
The implications of all of this for China are likely limited. Federal Reserve policy will remain regular and predictable, with few surprises compared with recent history. The bigger question involves the more general outlook for the U.S.economy. This also seems quite favorable,with solid and relatively balanced growth poised to continue through the year ahead and likely beyond.
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