对话美国财政部前官员：现在货币政策已不再是最重要的工具
带着种种疑问，我们近日与国际经济学者连线进行深度分析解读，今日推出该系列第一篇，访谈对象为美国智库大西洋理事会高级研究员、美国财政部原亚洲事务副助理部长Robert Dohner，他于北京时间3月23日早7点带来他对金融市场和美联储政策效果等最新解读。预告：3月29日（周日）20:00，浦山讲坛第八期，上海浦山新金融发展基金会理事长、中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员张斌，将为大家带来“刺激政策得与失”讲座，欢迎大家准时收看！
Q：美国金融市场近期持续巨幅震荡，其根本原因是什么？
A：过去几周的波动反映出金融市场正在努力应对100多年来最严重的全球性流行病可能造成的影响。无论是Covid-19的扩散路径、对美国和全球经济造成的影响、还是政策应对措施的出台速度和有效性，都存在高度不确定性。包括拟议的政策措施在内，每天我们都会收到新的信息，金融市场对此都会做出反应。
但巨大的价格波动也表明市场处于压力之下，不再具有足够的深度和流动性来支持投资者的预期行动，而机构“做市商”也不愿承担在高度不确定的情况下进行买卖的风险。买方报价和卖方报价之间急剧增加的价差等指标表明，市场交易深度比以前要小得多。
The fluctuations that we have seen in the past few weeks reflect financial markets trying to come to grips with the likely effects of the most serious global pandemic in over 100 years. There is a high degree of uncertainty about the spread of Covid-19, how serious its impact will be on the U.S. and global economies, and the speed and effectiveness of policy measures taken to deal with this crisis. New information – including about proposed policy measures – arrives every day and financial markets react to it.
But large price fluctuations also indicate markets that are under stress and no longer have the depth and liquidity to easily support the desired actions of investors and the reluctance of institutional “market makers” to bear the risks of being willing to either buy or sell in the current, highly uncertain circumstances. Measures such as the sharply increased spread between bid and ask prices indicate markets that have much less trading depth than before.
Q：本轮震荡将是一场影响深远的金融危机，还是一次相对短暂、影响可控的波动？为什么？
A：这是一场影响深远的危机，我们正陷入与2008-2009年全球金融危机一样的全球性衰退，如果足够走运、政策应对得当，这次衰退可能不会持续那么长时间。随着新冠肺炎在世界范围内的蔓延，即使是那些已经越过疫情高峰并且经济开始复苏的国家，仍然会受到外部需求下降带来的打击。
金融市场也是全球性的，不仅体现在各国的资产价格普遍下跌，还体现在一个市场的流动性趋紧会导致资金从其他市场回撤。美国金融市场在这里扮演着至关重要的角色，不仅是由于美国经济和美国市场的规模巨大，还因为美国境外离岸美元信贷规模巨大，以及美元融资在对全球生产链的支持中发挥了巨大作用。一个令人安心的迹象是，美联储已迅速采取行动，恢复了在全球金融危机期间曾采用的央行间美元掉期额度安排，期间几乎没有大张旗鼓的宣传或遭到国内政治反对。
This is a far-reaching crisis, and we are entering a global recession as deep as that during the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, although with luck and good policy it may not last nearly so long. As the pandemic spreads around the world, even those countries who have seen their infections peak and economies begin to recover will still be hit by the fall in external demand for their products.
Financial markets are also global, not simply in the fact that asset prices have fallen generally across countries, but also because liquidity strains in one market tend to draw funds from other markets. U.S. financial markets play a crucial role here, not simply due to the size of the U.S. economy and U.S. markets, but also because of the large volume of offshore dollar credit extended to corporate borrowers outside the United States and the huge role that dollar finance plays in supporting global production chains. One reassuring sign is that the Federal Reserve has acted quickly to restore central bank dollar swap lines that it extended during the Global Financial Crisis, with little fanfare or domestic political opposition.
Q：本轮动荡中，罕见地出现了如黄金一类的避险资产和风险资产共同下跌的现象，政府债券也遭遇大规模抛售，原因是什么？
A：资产（股票、债券、国债和黄金）价格的普遍下跌在一定程度上反映了寻求摆脱所有风险资产的散户投资者的恐慌性抛售，但更不祥的是，反映出在流动性短缺的情况下，对流动性的需求激增。
这里面有一部分市场结构的原因。购买国债并出售国债期货合约，是一种很普遍的总量巨大的交易行为，但这突然之间变得不经济了，于是导致了国债的大量抛售。但是随着美国经济进入一种严重程度和持续时间尚不能确定的衰退，人们更普遍地希望去杠杆并增加现金持有。
The general fall in asset prices – equities, bonds, Treasury securities, and gold – reflects to some degree panic selling by retail investors seeking to get out of all risk assets, but, more ominously, a spike in liquidity demand when liquidity is in short supply.
There were some market structure reasons for this. A widespread, and in aggregate quite large trade in which investors purchased Treasuries and sold Treasury futures contracts suddenly became uneconomic, leading to large sales of Treasury securities. But there has been a more general deleveraging and desire to have cash on hand as the U.S. economy enters a recession of uncertain depth and duration.
Q：如何理解美联储创建的新货币政策工具——货币市场共同基金流动性便利工具（MMLF）？它解决的主要问题是什么？
A：货币市场共同基金（mmf）是高流动性的投资基金，通常本金为每股1美元，被美国投资者认为是相对银行存款具有更高收益的替代投资工具。美国货币市场基金运营着约4万亿美元的资产，投资于各种短期债务，包括政府债券、银行定期存单和商业票据。对货币市场基金对其可购买资产的类型和期限有限制，但没有银行存款能提供的存款保障。大量资金流出，例如上周从主要货币市场基金撤出的超过1000亿美元，不仅限制了借款人的可以获得的信贷数量，而且（鉴于mmf对资产收益的安全性预期）也加剧了人们对金融资产总体安全的担忧。
美联储的货币市场共同基金流动性便利工具（MMLF）为货币市场基金提供了后盾，帮助他们满足投资者的撤资要求，这与美联储在上次全球金融危机期间建立的货币市场基金便利工具很相似。美联储迅速介入提供支持并不奇怪。但令人担忧的是，尽管经历了几次改革，货币市场基金仍然导致了十年前相同的问题。
Money market mutual funds (mmf) are highly liquid investment funds, usually with constant principal value of $1 per share, that U.S. investors view as a higher-yielding substitute for bank deposits. U.S. money market funds have about $4 trillion in assets and invest in a variety of short-term obligations, including government bonds, bank certificates of deposit, and commercial paper of companies which use the funds raised to finance their operations. Money market funds have restrictions on the type and duration of assets they can buy, but don’t have deposit protection that bank deposits do. Large outflows, such as the over $100 billion withdrawal from prime money market funds last week, not only restrict available credit for borrowers, but also – given mmf’s expectation of safety – heighten anxiety about the safety of financial assets generally.
The Federal Reserve’s Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) provides a backstop for money market funds, allowing them to meet investor withdrawals, much in the way that a similar facility set up by the Fed supported money market funds during the Global Financial Crisis. It’s not surprising that the Fed would step in quickly to shore up this part of the financial system. But it is dismaying that, after several reform efforts, money market funds are the source of the same problems as a decade ago.
Q：如何评价联邦政府拟推出的万亿刺激计划？方向准确吗？力度够大吗？您认为其能在多大程度上安抚市场并提振经济？
A：美国参议员和国会议员现在正在讨论一项包括财政支出、转移支付和贷款计划在内的2万亿美元刺激方案（几乎占美国GDP的10％）。该一揽子计划以及更广泛意义上的财政政策和美国政府政策正处于金融市场关注的焦点，无论一揽子计划离我们越来越近还是越来越远，都将引起市场大幅波动。
一揽子刺激方案力度是否足够，取决于大流行病造成的经济损失，其规模目前尚不清楚。但是，更重要的是一揽子计划如何设计和政府总体上如何应对。这场危机与标准意义上的衰退或金融危机不同，经济中的很大一部分，例如餐馆、体育馆、音乐会场所、度假村等，是强制关闭以减缓病毒的传播的。但波及到的从业人员仍然需要收入来养家糊口和偿还债务。
政策面临的挑战是竭尽所能提供医疗保健用品和设施，保护医务工作者，同时努力减缓疫情的蔓延，以使医疗保健系统不致不堪重负。未来几个月公众赖以生存的一些经济环节会承受巨大压力，如食品、药品生产和运输公司，公用事业和电信部门，以及快递公司员工和服务。保持这些供应线正常运转并维护这些部门员工的健康将是至关重要的任务。
同时，现在政策面临一个独特挑战是如何帮助因隔离政策而关门的企业度过最艰难的营业停滞阶段，最大程度地减少物力和人力损失，并提供收入和信贷支持帮助他们渡过难关。
随后，我们需要决定何时以及如何重启经济活动。在这方面，就像在如何应对病毒爆发时一样，中国可能为美国和其他国家提供宝贵的经验教训。
U.S. Senators and Members of Congress are now discussing a stimulus package of $2 trillion dollars (almost 10 percent of U.S. GDP) in a combination of expenditure, transfers, and lending programs. This package, along with fiscal policy and U.S. government policy more generally, are right at the center of financial market focus, with big market swings as a package appears to be more or less likely.
Whether the stimulus package is sufficient depends on the size of the economic damage from the pandemic, which is still unknown. But even more important is the design of package and the overall government response. This crisis is not like a standard recession or financial crisis, in that a substantial portion of the economy – restaurants, stadiums, concert venues, resorts, etc. -- is being deliberately shut down to slow the spread of the virus. But the need for income to support families and to make debt payments still remains.
The challenges for policy are to do all that we can to provide health care supplies and facilities and protect health care providers, while trying to slow the outbreak so that the health care system is not overwhelmed. The coming months will also place great stress on parts of the economy on which we will now all depend -- those producing and distributing food and medicine, utilities and telecommunications, and delivery workers and services. Keeping these supply lines functioning and maintaining the health of employees who work in these sectors will be critical tasks.
But the unique challenge for policy is to place those parts of the economy that are shutting down as result of self-isolation into a kind of suspended animation through the worst of the pandemic -- minimizing hardship and loss of physical and human capacity, and providing income and credit support to make it through to the other end.
And, at a later point, we will need to decide both when and how to restart the economy. Here, as in dealing with the outbreak of the virus, China may provide valuable lessons for the United States and others as we all deal with this pandemic.
Q：正如我们所看到的，全球央行竞相降息，我们已经实质上进入了零利率时代。零利率将会引发哪些问题？
A：自全球金融危机以来，零利率可能引起的任何问题，现在都不再是问题了。在一个投资者越来越不愿承担风险并为未来进行投资的世界中，中央银行尽可能降低利率是完全合适的。
问题在于，降低利率的起点太低了。而且，在当前情况下，由于供应缩水以及需求不足，中国以外的经济体不断削弱，零利率政策本身并不能取得多大效果。
现在，更为重要的是央行采取行动以维持市场的流动性，并为未来几个月内会受到打击的一众公司和个人提供信贷支持。美联储已采取了许多重要措施来支持金融市场的流动性，包括周一（3月23日）宣布的无限量购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的承诺，这远比零利率政策重要。
但现在货币政策已不再是唯一或最重要的工具。在这个时候，政府、特别是美国和欧洲的政府，应该积极采取行动，为个人提供直接援助，支持公共卫生系统，并增加财政支出。
Whatever problems zero interest rates may have caused since the Global Financial Crisis, they are not problems now. In a world that is increasingly reluctant to absorb risks and make investments for the future it is entirely appropriate that central banks make the largest rate cuts that they can.
The problem is that the starting point for interest rates was so low to begin with. And, in the current circumstances where economies outside of China are weakening because of shrinking supply as well as inadequate demand, zero interest rates can’t help very much on their own.
Far more important now are central bank actions to maintain liquidity in markets and support credit provision to the many firms and individuals that will be hit in the next few months. The Federal Reserve has taken a number of major steps to support liquidity in financial markets, including an open-ended commitment to buy Treasury and mortgage-backed securities announced on Monday (March 23), that will be far more important than the move to zero interest rates.
But central banks are no longer “the only game in town” nor are they now the most important. This is a time when governments must step up, particularly in the United States and in Europe – through direct aid to individuals, through support of public health – as well as through conventional fiscal spending.
Q：当前您最担心的问题是什么？
A：我担心的问题有很多。我相信我们会找到更有效的治疗和护理手段，并且很可能会及时研发出疫苗。但是我担心在此之前卫生保健系统可能不堪重负，特别是在公共卫生系统薄弱的较贫穷国家中。
在美国，由于其强烈的个人主义和分裂的政治文化，成功遏制住病毒将是一项特别的挑战。我担心美国许多人会在病毒传播刚得到有效控制的那一刻就放弃遵守扩大社交距离的政策。
最后，我担心应对病毒的努力会助长民族主义和分裂势力，而不是推动国际社会为应对全球性流行病协同作战。疾病、经济和金融市场本质上都是全球性的，需要各国共同努力，就像二十国集团在十年前应对全球金融危机时所做的那样。
There are a lot of worries to choose from. I do think we will come up with more effective means of treatment and care, and quite possibly a vaccine in time. But I worry that health care systems may be overwhelmed before then, particularly in poorer countries where public health systems are weak.
Successfully containing the virus will be a particular challenge in the United States, with its strongly individualistic and politically divided culture. I worry that many in the United States will give up on social distancing policies just at the point at which they might have been effective in limiting the spread of the virus.
Finally, I worry that efforts to deal with the virus will strengthen forces of nationalism and division, rather than spurring international efforts to deal with this global pandemic. Diseases, economies, and financial markets are all global in nature, and require countries to work together, just as the G-20 countries did a decade ago in dealing with the Global Financial Crisis.
预告：
3月29日（周日）20:00，浦山讲坛第八期，上海浦山新金融发展基金会理事长、中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员张斌，将为大家带来“刺激政策得与失”讲座，欢迎大家准时收看！更多预告内容，请持续关注我们。