欧央行原行长特里谢：全球新旧挑战交织，外滩金融峰会的召开恰逢其时
* 以下为特里谢在第五届外滩金融峰会上的致辞全文，中文翻译仅供参考。
”尊敬的上海市政府领导，尊敬的外滩峰会组织委员会执行主席屠光绍先生，尊敬的外滩峰会组织委员会联席执行主席毕井泉先生，女士们，先生们：
我很荣幸在外滩峰会开幕式上发表开幕致辞。这是一个荣誉、一种巨大的乐趣和一份重要的责任，原因如下：
首先，因为如今所有参会者都有机会面对面交流。我知道一些专家声称，凭借新技术的巨大成功，我们可以通过数字手段和平台组织所有的会面，不再需要面对面交流。我完全不同意这个观点！我深信，没有什么可以替代面对面的交流。如果没有亲身经历，就不可能有计划外的“走廊会谈”，自发的、围绕新愿景的新的“思想碰撞”，这些都是非常重要的，也是促成新概念的意外发现，即所谓的“偶然性”的关键所在。我相信本次外滩峰会将在探索新趋势和开展富有成果的对话方面取得丰硕的成果。
其次，因为峰会在关键时刻召开，此时国际社会必须应对如此多的严峻和棘手的新旧挑战。
欧洲的战争和许多国家日益增加的地缘政治紧张局势正在国际舞台上投下不确定的阴影。
许多经济学家认为在2008年金融危机和新冠危机之间已经消失的通货膨胀在两年前卷土重来。
包括人工智能在内的科学技术突飞猛进，正在推动经济和金融的深刻变革，这需要我们充分理解和妥善应对。
一些人认为，需要对与全球供应链以及随之而来的“脱钩”“脱险”和“重新配置”相关的所有风险进行对冲，从而重新评估贸易全球化。这种对全球化的新视角显然与前面提到的地缘政治紧张关系有关。如果处理不当，将对经济和金融稳定以及全球经济增长构成重大威胁。
人口老龄化在许多国家尤其具有威胁性，包括中国以及一些亚洲和欧洲国家。预计在未来25到30年内，活跃的人口将大幅度缩减。
当今全球债务水平高涨，包括公共和私人的债务，约占全球GDP的238%，而在2008年金融危机前的2007年，这个比值仅为190%。与此同时，实际和名义利率也大幅提高。这种脆弱性体现在金融市场高杠杆化的私营部门以及公共部门，尤其是债务水平较高的欧洲、中东和北非经济体。
气候变化是老生常谈的问题，但正如我们所知，人们对它的认识相对较晚。我们意识到一个简单的事实：全人类共享一艘宇宙飞船，即地球，而这艘飞船正面临着巨大的危险。
再次，非常幸运的是，本次外滩峰会的主题是“中国与世界”，所有对国际社会具有决定性意义的重大问题都将在会上得到讨论。令人瞩目的是，本次峰会能够汇聚如此众多的知名经济学家、商界领袖以及在私营和公共机构拥有深厚经验的人士，他们不仅来自中国，而且来自世界各地。我想告诉每一个人，我很高兴在这里看到你们，特别是我的国际顾问委员会的同事们。
正如我所说的，我们生活在一个非同寻常的时期，新旧威胁和挑战比以往任何时候都更加严峻和繁多。
我既不是乐观主义者，也不是悲观主义者，我是现实主义者。在这方面，请允许我与大家分享三点观察和三点结论性看法。
1.个人记忆
我第一次来中国是1982年，为了探讨中法之间的外国直接投资问题。在邓小平提出新的战略方针仅四年后，我就来到了北京。当时除了上海外滩的老建筑外，北京乃至整个中国大陆还没有一座高楼大厦。今天当我再次来到中国，看到这个国家在各个领域，以及整体生活水平在40年内的提高，绝对是非同一般的。这证明，当我们把卓越的人力资源与适当、高效和有效的经济和金融规则相结合时，我相信这个国家和我们所有人可以做成任何事。
2.气候变化
我们脆弱的宇宙飞船——地球——面临着巨大的挑战：我很高兴外滩金融峰会如此重视并深入探讨了这一问题。从这个角度来看，无论面临多少困难，我都认为我们能够建立新的国际可持续发展准则理事会（ISSB）是国际社区团结一致的重要表现。在这个新的理事会中，国际社区的各个部分都是成员之一：中国是一个非常积极的参与者，北京是一个重要的中心。我认为这是体现国际合作和凝聚力的一个积极迹象。
3.通货膨胀
在这方面，我们也面临着很大的困难。物价稳定是全球持续繁荣的必要条件。维持价格稳定的战斗尚未取得胜利，但所有相关的中央银行都在为此努力。
请允许我在此强调一些我认为非常重要的事情。考虑到特别提款权（SDR）如今和未来的重要性——一个包括四大发达经济体的可兑换货币和人民币组成的一篮子货币——我感到欣慰的是，这四种可兑换货币有史以来第一次就价格稳定的定义达成共识，即中期价格稳定在2%。自美国和日本在2012年和 2013年与2%的目标保持一致以来，这四国的中期目标是一致的，这与中国对物价稳定的理解并不矛盾。
如果在未来，特别提款权被视为一个可靠的未来全球货币锚，我相信，共享相同的物价稳定目标仍将是特别提款权的宝贵财富。
今天，我认为美元、欧元、日元和英镑在中期内对价格稳定的定义（2%）是相同的，再加上将人民币纳入一篮子货币中，这是自五十年前1973年3月布雷顿森林体系最终瓦解以来国际货币体系（IMS）最重要的实际改革。
感谢聆听。
英文演讲全文
Dear Leader of Shanghai Municipal Government,
Dear TU Guangshao, Executive Chairman of the Bund Summit Organizing Committee,
Dear BI Jingquan, Co-Executive Chairman of the Bund Summit Organizing Committee,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is an honour to deliver these opening remarks in the occasion of the Bund Summit Opening Ceremony. It is an honour, a great pleasure and an impressive responsibility for many reasons.
Firstly, because all participants have now the possibility to meet in person. I know that a number of experts are claiming that, with the formidable success of the new technologies, it is possible to organize all encounters through digital means and platforms, and that we do not need any more to meet and discuss in person. I totally disagree with this thesis! I profoundly trust that nothing can replace meeting in person. Without a physical presence, you cannot have the unplanned “corridor talks”, the spontaneous, the new“meeting of minds”around new visions that are so important and of the essence to contribute to the emergence of unplanned fortunate discoveries of new concepts, what is called “serendipity”. I am confident that the present Bund Summit will be particularly productive in exploring new trends and generating many fruitful dialogues.
Secondly, because the Summit takes place at a crucial time: when the international community has to cope with so many acute and difficult challenges, new and old.
New challenges:
The war in Europe and rising geopolitical tensions in many countries are casting a shadow of uncertainty in the international arena.
The inflation that many economists considered having disappeared in between the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID crisis came back with a vengeance 2 years ago.
The extraordinary surge of Science and Technology, including Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) that is driving a profound transformation of economy and finance that needs to be fully understood and properly addressed.
A new assessment of trade globalisation calling, in the view of some, for hedging against all the risks associated with long global supply chain and the ensuing “de-coupling”, “de risking” and “re-configuring”. This new look at globalisation is clearly associated with the geopolitical tensions already mentioned and represents, if not handled correctly, a significant threat for economic and financial stability, and for the global growth through fragmentation of the global economy.
Old challenges:
Population aging which is particularly threatening in many countries, including China and a number of Asian and European countries with the prospect of an active population shrinking quite dramatically over the next 25 to 30 years.
Vulnerability of global economy and finance due to the collision between a very high level of global outstanding debt, public and private – which represents today around 238% of global GDP when it was only 190% in 2007, just before the GFC of 2008 – and, at the same time, significantly higher real and nominal interest rates. This vulnerability is visible in the private sector as regards the highly leveraged segments of the financial markets as well as the public sector, in particular for highly indebted EMDE economies.
Climate change, old preoccupation but, as we know, relatively recent in terms of awareness. We are aware of the simple fact that all humanity is sharing a single spaceship, Planet Earth, and that this spaceship is in great danger.
Thirdly, highly fortunately, all major issues for the international community that are decisive“for China and for the world”, title of this Bund Summit, are to be addressed in the meeting. And it is remarkable that this Summit could gather so many eminent economists, business leaders and personalities having a profound and deep experience in private and public institutions, not only from China but coming from all the world. I would like to tell each of them how happy I am to see them here, with a particular mention of my colleagues members of the International Advisory Council.
As I said, we are living in an extraordinary period of time where new and old threats and challenges are more demanding and numerous than ever.
I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic; I am realistic. In this respect, let me share with you three observations, three concluding remarks.
1. Personal memory
The first time I came in China was in 1982 to negotiate a Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)agreement between China and France. It was fascinating to be in Beijing only 4 years after the new strategic drive of Chairman Deng Xiaoping. At that time, there was not a single high-rise building in Beijing nor in the whole mainland China, apart from the old buildings of the Shanghai Bund. When I am in China today, the transformation of the country in 40 years in all domains and the rise of the overall standard of living is absolutely extraordinary. It is a testimony to what this country and, I trust, all of us can do when we combine remarkable humanresources with appropriate efficient and effective rules in economy and finance, in particular.
2. Climate change
The challenges for our fragile spaceship – namely Planet Earth – are gigantic: I am very happy that the Bund Summit took this issue so importantly and thoroughly. From that standpoint, whatever the difficulties, I take it as an important demonstration of the unity of the international community that we could set up the new International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB). In this new Board, all parts and parcels of the international community are members: China is a very active participant and Beijing, an important hub. I see there a silver lining for international cooperation and cohesion.
3. Inflation
There also, we have major difficulties. Price stability is a necessary condition for global sustained prosperity. The battle for price stability is not won yet, but all Central banks concerned are fighting.
Let me there stress something that I think is very important. Taking into account the importance of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) today and tomorrow – a basket of currencies comprehending the four convertible currencies of the major advanced economies and the renminbi – I feel reassured that for the first time in history, these four convertible currencies have a consensus on their definition of price stability, namely 2% in the medium term. This medium term same goal, shared by all four since the USA and Japan aligned with the 2% goal in 2012 and 2013, is not incompatible with the Chinese understanding of what is price stability.
If the SDR are called, when time comes, to be a reliable future global currency anchor, which I trust, the sharing of the same price stability goal will remain a remarkable asset for the SDR.
Already today, I consider the fact that the dollar, the euro, the yen and the sterling have the same definition of price stability (2%) in the medium run – together with the introduction of the renminbi in the basket – is the most important de facto reform of the International Monetary System (IMS) since the definitive collapse of Bretton Woods in March 1973, almost exactly 50 years ago.
I thank you for your attention.
版面编辑：瑟瑟｜责任编辑：瑟瑟
视觉：李盼 东子