小诺贝尔奖最新研究"什么样的家庭出学霸?"
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前不久，推荐了《AEA的小诺贝尔经济学奖公布, 41位青年才俊做了些什么》，从中了解到很多40岁以下的青年才俊。今天，咱们将给圈友引荐的主题的作者恰恰是2003年的克拉克奖项获得者，其研究领域非常广泛并著有《魔鬼经济学》一书。
Steven D. Levitt被誉为"当今美国40岁以下最负盛名的经济学家"(现在年龄不止40)
父母究竟有多重要，仍然是个好问题，这一问题也错综复杂。要确定父母的影响，需要衡量儿童的哪一方面呢？性格？学校成绩？品行？创新能力？成年后的工资？
显然，影响儿童表现的因素众多：基因、家庭环境、社会经济发展水平、学校、歧视、运气、疾病，等等。那这些因素的权重又该如何划分呢？
虽然儿童在某些方面的表现，如性格或创造力，不易用数据衡量，但学校成绩却可以。而且，多数家长都认为教育是儿童成长的核心所在，因此研究一组发人深省的学校数据，是合理可行的切入点。
对于儿童在上学初期的表现，哪些因素有影响，哪些没有？
20世纪90年代末期，美国教育部开展了一个意义深远的项目，名为“童年早期的纵向研究”。该项目意在测算2万多名儿童从幼儿园到五年级期间的学业进展，研究对象从全国各地抽取，准确体现了美国小学生的构成结构。
该项目统计了学生的学习成绩，还收集了每名儿童的一般调研信息：种族、性别、家庭结构、社会经济地位、父母的教育水平，等等，但该项研究的调查内容远远不止这些基本信息，还包括对学生家长以及教师和学校行政人员的采访。采访问题很多，且内容比普通的政府采访更为私密：父母是否打孩子、多久打一次；父母是否带孩子去图书馆或博物馆；孩子看电视的时间有多长。
结果，他们得到了一组极其丰富的数据，只要问题能问到点子上，这些数据就能呈现出出人意料的规律。
以下是与考试分数高度相关的8个因素：
父母学历高
父母拥有较高的社会经济地位
母亲在生育第一胎时的年龄为30岁或30岁以上
出生体重低
父母在家讲英语
是被收养儿童
父母参加家长教师联谊会
家中藏书多
以下是无关的8个因素：
家庭完整
父母最近搬入了条件较好的小区
母亲在孩子出生后至上幼儿园之前不工作
参加过启智计划
定期随父母去博物馆
经常被打
经常看电视
几乎每天都听父母读书
接下来我们依次成对分析：
有关：父母学历高
无关：家庭完整
拥有高学历父母的儿童通常在学校成绩优异，这是意料之中的事。教育水平高的家庭往往很看重教育，或许更为重要的一点是，智商较高的父母往往教育水平也较高，而智商具有高度遗传性。
但儿童的家庭是否完整似乎并无影响，前文引用的研究表明，家庭结构对儿童性格并无影响。同理，家庭结构对儿童的学业水平似乎也毫无影响，至少在低年级阶段确实如此。这并不是说好好的家庭应该说散就散，而是说美国约2000万名单亲家庭儿童应该感到些许慰藉。
有关：父母拥有较高的社会经济地位
无关：父母最近搬入了条件较好的小区
社会经济地位高与考试分数高高度相关，这似乎合情合理。总的来说，社会经济地位是成功的重要表现，这说明此人智商较高且教育水平较高，所以事业有成的父母所养育的子女，获得成功的概率也较高。
但搬入条件较好的小区对儿童的学校成绩并无帮助，这可能是因为搬家本身存在负面作用，更有可能是因为，正如换了好鞋不会跳得更高，好房子也无法提高数学或阅读成绩。
有关：母亲在生育第一胎时的年龄为30岁或30岁以上
无关：母亲在孩子出生后至上幼儿园之前不工作
假如一名妇女30岁之后才要第一个孩子，这个孩子在学校成绩好的概率会较高。这样的母亲往往是想接受高等教育或在事业上有所成就，她们很可能也比未成年妈妈更想要孩子。
但这并不是说，只要初为人母时年纪较大，就一定是更加称职的母亲，而是说这样的母亲为母子双方创造了更加优越的条件。（值得注意的是，如果是未成年妈妈，即便等到30岁之后再要第二胎，也不具备这种条件。“童年早期的纵向研究”的数据表明，她们的第二胎并未优于第一胎。）
与此同时，母亲在孩子上幼儿园之前都辞职在家，似乎毫无帮助。养育过度的父母或许会觉得二者毫无关联这一点令人泄气，如此一来，那些母子课程还有什么意义？但数据表现出来的规律确实如此。
有关：出生体重低
无关：参加过启智计划
低体重儿往往在学校成绩不佳。这或是因为早产对儿童的整体健康有害，或是因为出生体重低预示着父母极有可能会养育不当，毕竟怀孕期间抽烟、喝酒或虐待腹中胎儿的母亲，不会因为孩子出生就幡然悔悟。因此，低体重儿成为贫困儿童的概率较高，因而参加启智计划的概率也较高。
启智计划，是联邦政府推行的学前教育计划，但“童年早期的纵向研究”的数据表明，启智计划对儿童未来的考试成绩毫无帮助。尽管启智计划广受好评（本书作者之一曾是特许学校的学生），我们也得承认，事实已经一次次地证明，该计划从长期来看，收效甚微，以下是可能的原因之一：
一般而言，参加启智计划的儿童白天虽然不用和自己教育水平低、劳累过度的母亲在一起，却得和别的教育水平低、劳累过度的母亲在一起。（还有一屋子同样贫困的儿童。）
实际上，启智计划的教师仅有不到30%有学士学位，且这个岗位收入微薄——启智计划的教师年收入约为21,000美元，而公立幼儿园教师的年收入则为40,000美元——又难以在短期内招到素质更高的教师。
有关：父母在家讲英语
无关：定期随父母去博物馆
父母讲英语的儿童在学校的成绩要优于父母不讲英语的儿童。这也不足为奇。在“童年早期的纵向研究”中，拉美裔学生的成绩进一步佐证了这一相关关系，拉美裔学生的整体成绩偏低，同时父母不讲英语的比例也较高。（不过，他们往往能在高年级迎头赶上。）
那么反面例子又如何？假如父母不仅讲英语，还会在周末带孩子参观博物馆以拓展文化视野，结果会怎样？抱歉。填鸭式的文化教育或许是养育过度的一个基本信条，但“童年早期的纵向研究”的数据表明，参观博物馆与考试成绩并不相关。
有关：是被收养儿童
无关：经常被打
被收养与学校考试成绩高度负相关。为什么？研究表明，亲生父母的智商对儿童的学业水平造成的影响远高于养父母的智商，而将自己孩子交予他人收养的母亲智商往往明显低于收养者。
被收养儿童成绩平平的另一个原因听起来或许令人反感，它与主张人性自私的基本经济学理论有关：想弃养孩子的母亲可能不会像想要孩子的母亲一样认真做产前保健。（区别类似—以下推论可能更加令人反感—你如何对待自家车与租来的过周末的车。）
不过，虽然被收养儿童往往考试成绩不佳，经常被打的儿童则不然。这或许有些出人意料，不是因为打孩子本身难免会造成伤害，而是因为传统观念认为，打孩子是不文明的做法。我们可能会因此认为打孩子的父母在其他方面也不文明，或许事实并非如此，打孩子或许另有内情。
请记住，“童年早期的纵向研究”这一调查包含对儿童父母的直接采访，因此父母要同政府调查人员促膝而谈，当面承认自己打孩子。这表明，坦白这种行径的父母要么是不文明，要么本性诚实。或许诚实作为正确育儿方式的一部分，影响要大于打孩子这种不当的育儿方式。
有关：父母参加家长教师联谊会
无关：经常看电视
父母如果参加家长教师联谊会，孩子往往能在学校取得好成绩，这很可能表明，与教育行业息息相关的父母才会参加家长教师联谊会，但参加联谊会本身并不会提高孩子的成绩。
与此同时，“童年早期的纵向研究”的数据表明，儿童的考试成绩与看电视的时间并不相关。这虽与传统观念相悖，但看电视显然不会让儿童的大脑变成一团糨糊。（芬兰的教育系统名列全球最佳，多数芬兰儿童7岁才开始上学，但在上学之前，就已经通过看配有芬兰语字幕的美国电视节目自学了识字。）
不过，在家里用电脑也不会让孩子成为爱因斯坦：“童年早期的纵向研究”的数据表明，使用电脑与学校考试成绩并不相关。
有关：家中藏书多
无关：几乎每天都听父母读书
家中藏书多的儿童确实在学校考试中能取得好成绩，但经常给孩子读书却对童年早期的考试成绩并无影响。这似乎有些蹊跷，让我们回到最初的问题：父母的作用究竟有多大，以及体现在什么方面？
首先，看存在正相关关系的因素：家中藏书多，考试成绩更好。多数人看到这对相关因素，会以此推断出其中存在显而易见的因果关系。
举个例子，男孩艾赛亚家里有很多藏书，他在学校的阅读考试中取得了优异的成绩，这一定是因为他的父母经常读书给他听。艾赛亚的朋友埃米莉家里也有很多藏书，但她几乎连碰都没碰过这些书，她更喜欢打扮她的布拉茨娃娃或看动画片，但她的考试分数与艾赛亚不相上下。相反的，艾赛亚和埃米莉的朋友里基家里一本书都没有，但里基每天都跟妈妈一起去图书馆，可他在学校的考试成绩却不及埃米莉或艾赛亚。
这如何理解？如果读书对童年早期的考试成绩并无影响，那是否仅仅家中有藏书就可以让儿童变聪明？书籍是否对儿童的大脑有某种潜移默化的神奇影响？要真这样，可能会有人打算装上一卡车的书，给所有育有学龄前儿童的家庭发书。
实际上，这正是伊利诺伊州州长的计划。2004年初，罗德·布拉戈耶维奇州长宣布该州计划每月寄一本书给每名已出生，但未到上幼儿园年龄的儿童。该计划每年将耗资2,600万美元，因为布拉戈耶维奇认为，伊利诺伊州有40%的三年级学生阅读水平不达标，此举是至关重要的干预措施。
“一旦你有了（书），书籍为你所有，”他说，“变成你生活的一部分，这些都会让你意识到，书籍应该成为你生活中的一部分。”
因此，所有出生在伊利诺伊州的儿童到入学之时，家里都会有约60本藏书。这是否意味着他们的阅读成绩会有所提高？
想必不会。（不过我们或许永远无法证实这点。最后，伊利诺伊州的立法机关驳回了图书计划。）毕竟，“童年早期的纵向研究”的数据无法说明家中藏书导致了考试高分，只能说明二者存在相关关系。
如何解读这种相关关系？以下为可能的理论之一：会买大量童书的父母多数本身便聪明睿智、学历很高。（而且他们将自己的智慧和工作理念传授给了自己的孩子。）抑或他们本身便很注重教育，也关怀子女的总体发展。（他们创造了鼓励学习、学有所获的环境。）这样的父母或许—和伊利诺伊州州长一样笃定不移地—认为所有童书都是开发儿童智力的不二法宝。但他们很可能错了，实际上，书籍并非智力提高的原因，而是智力出众的表现。
那么，这一切又如何解释育儿之道的总体效果呢？再来看一下“童年早期的纵向研究”中与学校考试成绩相关的8个因素以及无关的8个因素。
笼统地讲，前8个因素是对父母特点的描述，后8个因素是对父母行为的描述。
高学历、事业有成、身体健康的父母所生育的子女往往能在学校取得优异成绩；但儿童是否去博物馆、是否被打、是否参加启智计划、是否经常听父母读书，或是否坐在电视机前不离身似乎并无影响。
对于喜欢钻研养儿育女之道的父母和育儿专家来说，这或许是值得深思的发现。事实上，这些育儿之道似乎被严重高估了。
但这并不是说父母毫无影响，显然，父母对育儿而言关系重大。难点在于，当多数人准备拾起育儿经的时候，为时已晚，因为真正重要的因素—身份、配偶、生活方式早已注定。
如果你天资聪颖、踏实肯干、教育水平高、收入颇丰且配偶也条件相当，那你的孩子就有更大的概率能在生活中有所成就。（正直诚实、体贴周到、富有爱心、对世界充满好奇心想必也不会有害处。）而至于你的所作所为则并无太大影响，重要的是你本身的特质。
在一篇名为《经济成果的先天与后天学说》的论文中，经济学家布鲁斯·萨克多特对后天养育的长期影响进行了量化分析，他引用了三项收养儿童研究，其中两项来自美国，一项来自英国，三项研究均包含有关被收养儿童、养父母和亲生父母的详尽数据。
萨克多特发现，收养儿童的父母在智商、学历和收入方面往往优于儿童的亲生父母，但养父母的优点对儿童的学校成绩影响甚微。“童年早期的纵向研究”的数据也表明，被收养儿童的学校成绩相对较差，而养父母施加的任何影响似乎都敌不过基因的力量。
但萨克多特也发现，养父母并非永远无能为力，当被收养儿童长大成人时，他们已经摆脱了智商的限制，走上了完全不同的人生道路。与条件相似但未被收养的儿童相比，他们上大学、找到高收入工作、成年后结婚的概率明显更高。
萨克多特断定，扭转这一切的是养父母的影响。
下面就是这位高产经济学家的有趣研究，建议圈友们读一读，多培养几个学霸。
Business
"White-Collar Crime Writ Small: A Case Study of Bagels, Donuts, and the Honor System."American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, May 2006, 96(2), pp. 290-294.
"Why Are Gambling Markets Organised So Differently from Financial Markets?" Economic Journal, 2004, 114(495), pp. 223-46. Download
"Is no News Bad News? Information Transmission and the Role of "Early Warning" in the Principal-Agent Model." The Rand Journal of Economics, 1997, 28(4), pp. 641-61. (with Snyder, Christopher M.) Download
"Optimal Incentive Schemes when Only the Agents' "Best" Output Matters to the Principal." The Rand Journal of Economics, 1995, 26(4, Symposium on the Economics of Organization), pp. 744-60. Download
Crime
"Economic Contribution to the Understanding of Crime."Annual Review of Law and Social Science.December 2006, Vol.2: pp.147-164. (with Miles, Thomas) Download
"Measurement Error, Legalized Abortion, and the Decline in Crime: A Response to Foote and Goetz." Politics & the Life Sciences, 2008, 123(1), pp. 425-440.(with Donohue, John) Download
"The Case of the Critics Who Missed the Point: A Reply to Webster et al." Criminology and Public Policy, 2006, 5(Issue 3), pp. 449-460. Download
"Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors That Explain the Decline and Six That Do Not." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004, 18(1), pp. 163-90. Download
"An Empirical Analysis of Imprisoning Drug Offenders." Journal of Public Economics, 2004, 88(9-10), pp. 2043-66. (with Kuziemko, Ilyana) Download
"Further Evidence that Legalized Abortion Lowered Crime: A Reply to Joyce." Journal of Human Resources, 2004, 39(1), pp. 29-49. (with Donohue, John J., III) Download
"Prison Conditions, Capital Punishment, and Deterrence."American Law and Economics Review, 2003, 5(2), pp. 318-43. (with Katz, Lawrence and Shustorovich, Ellen) Download
"Testing the Economic Model of Crime: The National Hockey League's Two Referee Experiment." Contributions to Economic Analysis and Policy, 2002, 1(1), pp. na. Download
"Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime." The American Economic Review, 1997, 87(3), pp. 270-90. Download
"Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply." American Economic Review, 2002, 92(4), pp. 1244-50. Download
"Alternative Strategies for Identifying the Link Between Unemployment and Crime." Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2001, 17(Issue 4), pp. 377. Download
"Growing Up in the Projects: The Economic Lives of a Cohort of Men Who Came of Age in Chicago Public Housing." American Economic Review, 2001, 91(2), pp. 79-84. (with Venkatesh, Sudhir A.) Download
"How Dangerous Are Drinking Drivers?" Journal of Political Economy, 2001, 109(6), pp. 1198-237. (with Porter, Jack) Download
"The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2001, 116(2), pp. 379-420. (with Donohue, John J., III) Download
"The Impact of Race on Policing and Arrests." Journal of Law and Economics, 2001, 44(2), pp. 367-94. (with Donohue, John J., III) Download
"Are we a family or a business?" History and disjuncture in the urban American street gang." Theory & Society, 2000, 29(Issue 4), pp. 427. (with Venkatesh, Sudhir A.) Download
"An Economic Analysis of a Drug-Selling Gang's Finances." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2000, 115(3), pp. 755-89. (with Venkatesh, Sudhir A.) Download
"The Limited Role of Changing Age Structure in Explaining Aggregate Crime Rates." Criminology, 1999, 37(Issue 3), pp. 581. Download
"The Changing Relationship between Income and Crime Victimization." Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 1999, 5(3), pp. 87-98. Download
"Using Sentence Enhancements to Distinguish between Deterrence and Incapacitation." Journal of Law and Economics, 1999, 42, pp. 343-63. (with Kessler, Daniel) Download
"Crime, Urban Flight, and the Consequences for Cities." Review of Economics and Statistics, 1999, 81(2), pp. 159-69. (with Cullen, Julie B.) Download
"Why Do Increased Arrest Rates Appear to Reduce Crime: Deterrence, Incapacitation, or Measurement Error?" Economic Inquiry, 1998, 36(3), pp. 353-72. Download
"The relationship between crime reporting and police: Implications for the use of uniform crime reports." Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 1998, 14(1), pp. 61-81. Download
"Juvenile Crime and Punishment." 1998, Journal of Political Economy , 106 (December): 1156-1185 Download
"Guns, Violence, and the Efficiency of Illegal Markets." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 1998, Vol. 88 No. 2: pp. 463-67. (with Donohue, John J., III) Download
"Measuring Positive Externalities from Unobservable Victim Precaution: An Empirical Analysis of Lojack." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1998, 113(1), pp. 43-77 (with Ayres, Ian) Download
"Incentive compatibility constraints as an explanation for the use of prison sentences instead of fines." International Review of Law and Economics, 1997, pp. 179-92. Download
"A skeptical but sympathetic appraisal of the prospects for nurturant crime-control policies." Politics & the Life Sciences, 1997, 16(Issue 1), pp. 34. Download
"The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation." The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1996, 111(2), pp. 319-51. Download
"Review of Drug War Heresies by MacCoun and Reuter." Journal of Economic Literature, 2003, 41(2), pp. 540-44. Download
"Comment on Ludwig and Raphael's Analysis of 'Project Exile.'" in Evaluating Gun Policy: Effects on Crime and Violence, edited by Jens Ludwig and Phil Cook, November 2002, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press. Download (coming soon)
"The Determinants of Juvenile Crime." in Risky Behavior by Youths, edited by Jonathan Gruber, University of Chicago Press, 2000. (with Lance Lochner) Download (coming soon)
"Deterrence." In Crime, edited by James Q. Wilson and Joan Petersilia. San Francisco: ICS press. 2001. Download (coming soon)
"Understanding Colombia's Crime Situation and the Institutional Reforms Required to Alleviate the Problem." For a volume edited by Alberto Alesina, 2000. (with Mauricio Rubio) Download (coming soon)
"The Economics of Inmate Labor Participation." 1999. Download (coming soon)
Cheating
"Market Distortions when Agents are Better Informed: The Value of Information in RealEstate Transactions."Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2008, Vol.90, No.4, pp. 599-611. (with Syverson, Chad) Download
"White-Collar Crime Writ Small: A Case Study of Bagels, Donuts, and the Honor System."American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, May 2006, 96(2), pp. 290-294.
"Rotten Apples: An Investigation of the Prevalence and Predictors of Teacher Cheating." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2003, 118(3), pp. 843-77. (with Jacob, Brian A.) Download
"Catching Cheating Teachers: The Results of an Unusual Experiment in Implementing Theory." Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs, 2003, pp. 185-209. (with Jacob, Brian A.) Download
"Winning Isn't Everything: Corruption in Sumo Wrestling." American Economic Review, 2002, 92(5), pp. 1594-605. (with Duggan, Mark) Download
"To Catch a Cheat." Education Next. Winter 2004. (with Jacob, Brian) Download
Economics Profession
"An Examination of the Influence of Theory and Individual Theorists on Empirical Research in Microeconomics." American Economic Review, 2003, 93(2), pp. 151-55. (with Chiappori, Pierre-Andre) Download
"Honoring James Heckman's Contributions to Economics: Identification, Heterogeneity, and Economic Models." Law & Social Inquiry, 2002, 27(Issue 1), pp. 35. Download
Education
"Exploring the Impact of Financial Incentives on Stereotype Threat: Evidence from a Pilot Study."AEA Papers and Proceedings,2008, Vol.98, Issue 2, pp. 370-375. (with Fryer, Roland and List, John)
"What Does Performance in Graduate School Predict? Graduate Economics Education and Student Outcomes."American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 2007, 97(2), pp. 512-518. (with Athey, Susan, Katz, Lawrence F., Krueger, Alan B., and Poterba, James.) Download
"The Effect of School Choice on Participants: Evidence from Randomized Lotteries."Econometrica, 2006, 74(5), pp. 1191-1230. (with Cullen, Julie and Jacob, Brian) Download
"The Black-White Test Score Gap Through Third Grade"; Forthcoming, American Law and Economics Review, 2005. (with Fryer, Roland G.) Download
"The Impact of School Choice on Student Outcomes: An Analysis of the Chicago Public Schools", 2004, Forthcoming Journal of Public Economics Download
"Understanding the Black-White Test Score Gap in the First Two Years of School." Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, 86(2), pp. 447-64. (with Fryer, Roland G., Jr.) Download
"Rotten Apples: An Investigation of the Prevalence and Predictors of Teacher Cheating." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2003, 118(3), pp. 843-77. (with Jacob, Brian A.) Download
"Catching Cheating Teachers: The Results of an Unusual Experiment in Implementing Theory." Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs, 2003, pp. 185-209. (with Jacob, Brian A.) Download
"To Catch a Cheat." Education Next . Winter 2004. (with Jacob, Brian) Download
"Falling Behind." Education Next. Fall 2004. (with Fryer, Ronald) Download
"Aging in an American Street Gang: Toward a Life-Course Perspective on Gang Involvement." Forthcoming, in collection of articles to be published by American Bar Foundation. (with Sudhir Venkatesh). Download (coming soon)
Experiments
"Exploring the Impact of Financial Incentives on Stereotype Threat: Evidence from a Pilot Study."AEA Papers and Proceedings,2008, Vol.98, Issue 2, pp. 370-375. (with Fryer, Roland and List, John)
"Economics: Homo Economicus Evolves."Science, February 2008, 319(5865): pp. 909-910. (with List, John A.) Download
"Viewpoint: On the Generalizability of Lab Behavior in the Field." Canadian Journal of Economics, 2007, 40(2): 347-370.
"What Do Laboratory Experiments Measuring Social Preferences Reveal about the Real World?"Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2007, 21(2), pp.153-174. (with List, John A.)
"The Effect of School Choice on Participants: Evidence from Randomized Lotteries."Econometrica, 2006, 74(5), pp. 1191-1230. (with Cullen, Julie and Jacob, Brian) Download
Politics
"Congressional Distributive Politics and State Economic Performance." Public Choice, 1999, 99(1-2), pp. 185-216. (Poterba, James M.) Download
"Comparing Interest Group Scores across Time and Chambers: Adjusted ADA Scores for the U S Congress." American Political Science Review, 1999, 93(1), pp. 33-50. (with Groseclose, Tim and Snyder, James M., Jr.) Download
"Are PACs Trying to Influence Politicians or Voters?" Economics and Politics, 1998, 10(1), pp. 19-35. Download
"The Impact of Federal Spending on House Election Outcomes." Journal of Political Economy, 1997, 105(1), pp. 30-53. (with Snyder, James M., Jr.) Download
"Decomposing the Sources of Incumbency Advantage in the U. S. House." Legislative Studies Quarterly, 1997, 22(1), pp. 45-60. (with Wolfram, Catherine D.) Download
"How Do Senators Vote? Disentangling the Role of Voter Preferences, Party Affiliation, and Senator Ideology." The American Economic Review, 1996, 86(3), pp. 425-41. Download
"Political Parties and the Distribution of Federal Outlays." American Journal of Political Science, 1995, 39(4), pp. 958-80. (with Snyder, James M., Jr.) Download
"Policy Watch: Congressional campaign finance reform." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1995, 9(Issue 1), pp. 183. Download
"Using Repeat Challengers to Estimate the Effect of Campaign Spending on Election Outcomes in the U.S. House." Journal of Political Economy, 1994, 102(4), pp. 777-98. Download
"An Empirical Test of Competing Explanations for the Midterm Gap in the U S House."Economics and Politics , 1994, 6(1), pp. 25-37. Download (coming soon)
Race
"Exploring the Impact of Financial Incentives on Stereotype Threat: Evidence from a Pilot Study."AEA Papers and Proceedings,2008, Vol.98, Issue 2, pp. 370-375. (with Fryer, Roland and List, John)
"The Black-White Test Score Gap Through Third Grade"; Forthcoming, American Law and Economics Review, 2005. (with Fryer, Roland G.) Download
"Testing Theories Of Discrimination: Evidence From Weakest Link." Journal of Law and Economics, 2004, 47(2), pp. 431. Download
"The Causes and Consequences of Distinctively Black Names." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2004, 119(3), pp. 767-805. (with Fryer, Roland G., Jr.) Download
"Understanding the Black-White Test Score Gap in the First Two Years of School." Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, 86(2), pp. 447-64. (with Fryer, Roland G., Jr.) Download
"Growing Up in the Projects: The Economic Lives of a Cohort of Men Who Came of Age in Chicago Public Housing." American Economic Review, 2001, 91(2), pp. 79-84. (with Venkatesh, Sudhir A.) Download
"The Impact of Race on Policing and Arrests." Journal of Law and Economics, 2001, 44(2), pp. 367-94. (with Donohue, John J., III) Download
"Are we a family or a business?" History and disjuncture in the urban American street gang." Theory & Society, 2000, 29(Issue 4), pp. 427. (with Venkatesh, Sudhir A.) Download
"An Economic Analysis of a Drug-Selling Gang's Finances." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2000, 115(3), pp. 755-89. (with Venkatesh, Sudhir A.) Download
"Falling Behind." Education Next. Fall 2004. (with Fryer, Ronald) Download
"Aging in an American Street Gang: Toward a Life-Course Perspective on Gang Involvement." Forthcoming, in collection of articles to be published by American Bar Foundation. (with Sudhir Venkatesh). Download (coming soon)
Real Estate
"Anitrust Implications of Home Seller Outcomes when using Flat-Fee Real Estate Agents."Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Economics, 2008, pp.47-93. (with Syverson, Chad) Download
"Market Distortions when Agents are Better Informed: The Value of Information in RealEstate Transactions."Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2008, Vol.90, No.4, pp. 599-611. (with Syverson, Chad) Download
Survey
"Economic Contribution to the Understanding of Crime."Annual Review of Law and Social Science.December 2006, Vol.2: pp.147-164. (with Miles, Thomas) Download
"Economics: Homo Economicus Evolves."Science, February 2008, 319(5865): pp. 909-910. (with List, John A.) Download
"Viewpoint: On the Generalizability of Lab Behavior in the Field." Canadian Journal of Economics, 2007, 40(2): 347-370.
"What Do Laboratory Experiments Measuring Social Preferences Reveal about the Real World?"Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2007, 21(2), pp.153-174. (with List, John A.)
"Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors That Explain the Decline and Six That Do Not." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004, 18(1), pp. 163-90. Download
"The Determinants of Juvenile Crime." in Risky Behavior by Youths, edited by Jonathan Gruber, University of Chicago Press, 2000. (with Lance Lochner) Download (coming soon)
"Deterrence." In Crime, edited by James Q. Wilson and Joan Petersilia. San Francisco: ICS press. 2001. Download (coming soon)
Sports
"Why Are Gambling Markets Organised So Differently from Financial Markets?" Economic Journal, 2004, 114(495), pp. 223-46. Download
"Testing the Economic Model of Crime: The National Hockey League's Two Referee Experiment." Contributions to Economic Analysis and Policy, 2002, 1(1), pp. na. Download
"Winning Isn't Everything: Corruption in Sumo Wrestling." American Economic Review, 2002, 92(5), pp. 1594-605. (with Duggan, Mark) Download
"Testing Mixed-Strategy Equilibria When Players Are Heterogeneous: The Case of Penalty Kicks in Soccer." American Economic Review, 2002, 92 : 1138-1151 (With Chiappori, Pierre-Andre and Groseclose, Timothy) Download
"The Hazards of Moral Hazard: Comment on Goff, Shughart, and Tollison." Economic Inquiry, 1998, 36(4), pp. 685-87. Download
Theory
"Testing Mixed-Strategy Equilibria When Players Are Heterogeneous: The Case of Penalty Kicks in Soccer." American Economic Review, 2002, 92 : 1138-1151 (With Chiappori, Pierre-Andre and Groseclose, Timothy) Download
"Are PACs Trying to Influence Politicians or Voters?" Economics and Politics, 1998, 10(1), pp. 19-35. Download
"Guns, Violence, and the Efficiency of Illegal Markets." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 1998, Vol. 88 No. 2: pp. 463-67. (with Donohue, John J., III) Download
"Is no News Bad News? Information Transmission and the Role of "Early Warning" in the Principal-Agent Model." The Rand Journal of Economics, 1997, 28(4), pp. 641-61. (with Snyder, Christopher M.) Download
"Incentive compatibility constraints as an explanation for the use of prison sentences instead of fines." International Review of Law and Economics, 1997, pp. 179-92. Download
"Optimal Incentive Schemes when Only the Agents' "Best" Output Matters to the Principal." The Rand Journal of Economics, 1995, 26(4, Symposium on the Economics of Organization), pp. 744-60. Download
Traffic Safety
"Evaluating the Effectiveness of Child Safety Seats and Seat Belts in Protecting Children from Injury."Forthcoming,Economic Inquiry., (with Doyle, Joseph) Download
"Evidence that Seat Belts Are as Effective as Child Safety Seats in Preventing Death for Children." The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 2008, 90(1), pp. 158-163. Download
"Sample Selection in the Estimation of Air Bag and Seat Belt Effectiveness." Review of Economics and Statistics, 2001, 83(4), pp. 603-15. (with Porter, Jack) Download
"How Dangerous Are Drinking Drivers?" Journal of Political Economy, 2001, 109(6), pp. 1198-237. (with Porter, Jack) Download
Working and Unpublished
"The Role of Skill versus Luck in Poker: Evidence from the World Series of Poker." April 2011. (with Miles, Thomas J.) Download
"The effect of school choice on student outcomes evidence from randomized lotteries." NBER working paper series; no. 10113; National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003. (with Cullen, Julie B. and Jacob, Brian A.) Download
"Evaluating the Effectiveness of Child Safety Seat and Seat Belts in Protecting Children from Injury." August 2002. (with Joseph J. Doyle, Jr.) Download
"Evidence that Seat Belts are as Effective as Child Safety Seats in Preventing Death for Children Aged Two and Up." Unpublished paper, August 2005. Download
"The impact of legalized abortion on teen childbearing" ABF working paper; #2112; Chicago, Il: American Bar Foundation, 2002. (with Donohue, John J. and Grogger, Jeff) Download (coming soon)
"Market Distortions when Agents are Better Informed: The Value of Information in Real Estate Transactions" NBER Working Paper Series No. 11053; National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005. (with Syverson, Chad) Download
"Measurement Error, Legalized Abortion, the Decline in Crime: A Response to Foote and Goetz (2005)" January 2006 (with Donohue, John J.) Download
"Measuring the Impact of Crack Cocaine." NBER Working Papers Series no. 11318; Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005. (with Fryer, Roland G., Heaton, Paul S. and Murphy, Kevin M.) Download
"Testing for Racial Differences in the Mental Ability of Young Children" NBER working paper series ;; no. 12066; National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006. (with Fryer) Download
"Testing for Racial Differences in the Mental Ability of Young Children" February 2006. (with Roland G. Fryer) Download
"Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup" June 2006 (with Ricard Gil) Download
"What Do Laboratory Experiments Tell Us About the Real World?" University of Chicago and NBER June 2006 (with John A. List) Download
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