【目录】 《国际经济评论》2018年第4期
历史瞬间和特征化事实 —— 中国特色城市化道路及其新内涵 蔡 昉
从多边和双边的视角看中美贸易 朱 民 缪延亮
中美经济摩擦进入新阶段：矛盾焦点从贸易失衡转向技术转移 关志雄
信息技术发展趋势与半导体产业的增长点 冯昭奎
关于中国风电和光伏发电补贴缺口和大比例弃电问题的研究
北京大学国家发展研究院能源安全与国家发展研究中心、
中国人民大学经济学院能源经济系联合课题组
“三大变革”引领世界经济新周期之变 盛 垒 权 衡
中国-东盟自由贸易区的经济影响和减贫效应 余淼杰 高恺琳
从“货币三元悖论”到“金融三元悖论”—— 国际资本流动研究的新思路
范小云 刘粮 陈雷
新时代中国的对外贸易发展：机遇与挑战
—— 中国世界经济学会国际贸易论坛（2018）学术研讨会观点综述
邱 斌 张 亮 刘修岩 陈 健
智库观察
历史瞬间和特征化事实 —— 中国特色城市化道路及其新内涵 蔡昉
文章选取最具有代表性的三个历史瞬间（事件），分别从劳动力从低生产率农业及农村产业中“退出”（exit），在农业和非农产业之间、城乡之间、地域之间的“流动”（mobility），以及在居住、就业、社会身份等方面“进入”（entry）城市及其部门和社会三个角度，叙述了同时作为改革过程和发展过程的中国特色城市化。文章指出，中国以城市化为代表的改革和发展经验，可以回答下列问题并且解决一般的发展问题：第一，通过改革解决生产要素积累的激励问题和生产要素重新配置机制问题，把必要条件转化为实际经济增长；第二，立足于劳动力重新配置从而促进更加充分就业，把改革、开放、发展和分享融为一体，由此获得全社会对改革的共识，使之得以持续推进；第三，随着发展阶段变化，不断调整改革的重点，以保持和挖掘经济增长的必要条件。
关键词：中国特色城市化 生产要素积累 生产要素重新配置 经济增长
Urbanizationwith Chinese Characteristics and Its New Connotation
CaiFang
This article selects three typical historical moments (developments) to analyze the country's urbanization with Chinese characteristics, which can be defined both as a process of reform and a process of development, from three perspectives: labor force exiting from inefficient agricultural and rural sector, mobility oflabor force between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, between urbanand rural areas, and between different regions, and entry of labor force intocities and urban sectors in terms of residence, employment and social statustransformation. The article points out that China's reform and development experiences from its urbanization process can serve as solutions to the following tasks: first, it is provision of incentives for accumulation of production factors and mechanisms for re-distribution of production factors throughre forms to generate real economic growth; second, it is creation of more jobs to promote full employment through re-distribution of labor force so that reform, opening-up, development and sharing can be combined to increase social consensus on reform to ensure the sustainable implementation of reformmeasures; third, it is adjustment of reform priorities based on changing development phases to maintain and create necessary driving forces for economic growth.
从多边和双边的视角看中美贸易
朱 民 缪延亮
一国总体贸易赤字是其国内经济结构和经济政策失衡的结果。美国长期存在巨额贸易赤字的起因是美国公共和私人部门凭借美元的霸主地位长期消费过度、储蓄不足。中国聚焦国内经济结构转型，通过内部结构调整实现了外部再平衡，为从根本上解决贸易失衡提供了范本。解决贸易争端，需要双方特别是美方正视其国内经济的结构性矛盾。不论是单边的贸易保护主义还是在双边赤字上做文章，都不会解决反而会加剧美国经济的失衡。面对贸易战的挑衅，中国需要坚持正义立场，立足长远，聚焦自身改革。
关键词：贸易战 经济政策 再平衡 中美贸易
Sino-US Trade: Multilateral and Bilateral Perspectives
Zhu Minand Miao Yanliang
The colossal trade deficits of the United States are a direct consequence of its long-standing domestic structural and policy imbalances supported by the US dollar’s exorbitant privilege as the dominant international reserve currency. China, on the contrary, has focused on transforming its domestic economy to achieve external rebalancing through internal restructuring, which provides an exemplary case for solving the problem of trade imbalance. It requires both sides, especially the US, to face up to the domestic structural issues of the US to resolve their trade disputes; a trade war will only exacerbate the US economic imbalance. China should adhere to its righteous position, focus on its long-term interests, and accelerate its domestic reforms.
中美经济摩擦进入新阶段：矛盾焦点从贸易失衡转向技术转移
关志雄
从2018年3月特朗普政府依据《1974年贸易法》“301条款”决定发动对华制裁开始，中美经济摩擦升级，对立焦点正从贸易失衡转向技术转移。美国批评中国政府为了取得技术，对投资中国某些行业的美国企业实施出资限制政策，并且对收购海外先进技术企业的中国企业提供各种支持。美国政府不仅要求中国改变这些政策，还对外资收购美国企业的项目加强了国家安全层面的审查。在从美国引进高端技术日益困难的情况下，中国在加强自主研发的同时，还正通过加快对外开放，提升自身作为投资对象国的魅力。
关键词：贸易摩擦 301条款 美国外资投资委员会 外商投资风险评估现代化法案
FromTrade Imbalance to Technology Transfer — New Stage of China-US
Economic Frictions
C. H.Kwan
Economic frictions between China and the United States have heightened following theTrump administration's invocation of Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act andannouncement of retaliatory actions against China in March 2018, with the majorconcern shifting from trade imbalance to technology transfer. The United Stateshas criticized the Chinese government of imposing ownership limits on US companies investing in China while at the same time supporting Chinese companies' M&A activities that aim to acquire technology from overseas. The US government has asked China to change these policies on the one hand, andtighten review of foreign acquisition of US companies based on national security considerations on the other hand. As it has become more and more difficult for China to acquire the most advanced technology from the United States, it has made more efforts to indigenous R&D, while at the same time sped up opening its economy to the world to enhance its attractiveness as aninvestment destination.
信息技术发展趋势与半导体产业的增长点 冯昭奎
在当今以信息技术为核心的新一轮科技革命中，信息技术的核心地位进一步提升；信息技术的内涵进一步丰富（人工智能、大数据、云计算等）；信息技术本身的基础——半导体芯片技术的重要性进一步凸显。5G时代将在2020年代前半期到来，人工智能在激烈的市场竞争中加快走向实用化和商业化，物联网（IoT）将成为人们工作和生活的一部分。智能手机及其他移动通信设备，连接家庭、智能城市、个人可穿戴设备的物联网，消费类电子产品，产业物联网（IIoT），汽车自动化，机器人/无人机，包括生物识别技术在内的安全应用领域，人工智能/认知/深度学习将成为信息技术发展的最重要的应用领域。而新科技成果的不断扩大应用，将有力地推动半导体及相关电子器件产业的发展与增长：5G手机芯片、汽车自动化芯片、物联网相关芯片、高速高效化合物半导体器件、半导体传感器等将成为今后数年半导体产业的新增长点。
关键词： 信息技术 5G 人工智能 物联网 集成电路芯片 半导体产业
Information Technology Development and Growth of the Semiconductor Industry
Feng Zhaokui
The core position of information technology in the new round of scientific and technological revolution has been further strengthened and the contents of information technology have been further enriched (artificial intelligence, bigdata, cloud computing, etc.); as the foundation of information technology, these miconductor chip technology has become increasingly important. With the expected advent of the 5G era in the first half of the 2020s, application and commercialization of artificial intelligence will accelerate amid fierce market competition, and the internet of things (IoT) will become an indispensible part of people's daily life. Smart phones and other mobile communication devices, internet of things that connect homes, smart cities and personal wearable devices, consumer electronics, industrial internet of things (IIoT), automotive automation, robots and drones, security applications including biometrics, artificial intelligence, cognition and deep learning will become the most important areas of application of information technology. The expanded application of new technological achievements will effectively promote the development and expansion of semiconductor and related electronic device industries; as a result, 5G mobile phone chips, automotive automation chips, IoT-related chips, high-speed and high-efficiency compound semiconductor devices, and semiconductor sensors will become new growth points of these miconductor industry.
关于中国风电和光伏发电补贴缺口和大比例弃电问题的研究
北京大学国家发展研究院能源安全与国家发展研究中心、
中国人民大学经济学院能源经济系联合课题组
中国当下可再生能源发展面临补贴资金缺口急剧膨胀以及“弃风弃光”居高不下的双重挑战。本研究在实地调研基础上，讨论分析了现有固定上网电价制度如何在制度层面上形成“地方请客、中央埋单”的资源配置逻辑，并与僵化的电力市场体制产生种种摩擦和矛盾，进而形成上述发展困局的。在进一步分析总结当前经济新形势和可再生能源发展国际经验的基础上，本文提出解决问题的思路，并立足还原风电和光伏发电的商品和环境属性，对如何调整和过渡当前的可再生能源补贴政策提出相应政策建议。
关键词：可再生能源 风电 光伏发电 补贴政策 可再生能源弃电 电力市场
Subsidy Crisis and Large-Scale Curtailment of Wind and Solar Power in
China
United Research Group of China Center for Energy and Development at
the National School of Development, Peking University,
and Department of Energy Economics at the School of Economics,
Renmin University of China
The renewable energy development in China is facing the challenges of subsidycrisis and large-scale curtailment of wind and solar power. Based on field research, this article analyzes how the fixed feed-in tariff subsidy policy hasled to the current scenario of “local governments treat and central governmentpays” in terms of resource allocation, and how it has conflicted with the rigid power production, transmission and trading system. Based on analysis of China's economic development and lessons of renewable development in other countries, the article provides suggestions regarding how to solve those problems andadjust the renewable energy subsidy policies.
“三大变革”引领世界经济新周期之变 盛 垒 权 衡
走过十年“新平庸”的世界经济似乎已逐渐摆脱危机阴霾，从危机以来的持续衰退开始走向更积极的复苏增长。但从长周期视角来看，目前世界经济总体仍处于上一轮发展周期的衰退期，全球经济持续行进在中低速增长轨道的“结构性低迷期”。走出“结构性低迷”的出路，依赖于世界经济迈向新的发展长周期。着眼于21世纪世界经济的长期发展，“三大变革”将引领世界经济走向发展新周期：一是新科技革命重塑世界经济增长新动力，二是“一带一路”国际合作重构全球化发展新格局，三是全球治理体系变革重建世界经济发展新规则。值得一提的是，在世界经济周期性转换过程中，中国新时代将带给世界新机遇，既有助于促进全球经济的有效复苏和增长，也有助于推动世界经济迈向新一轮长周期的孕育和增长新阶段。
关键词：新科技革命 一带一路 全球治理 世界经济新周期
New Cycle of the World Economy and the Changing Dynamics
Sheng Lei and Quan Heng
After ten years of “new mediocre”, the world economy seems to be shaking off the impact of the global financial crisis and starts to show more positive signs of recovery. However, from the perspective of long-term cycle, the world economy remains in the phase of recession as part of the old cycle, which means it isin a situation of “structural downturn” marked by low- and medium-rate growth.The way out of “structural downturn” lies in the world economy stepping onto a new track of long-term growth cycle, which will feature new dynamics, newstructure, new rule and new governance system. The following developments will help the world economy achieve that transition. First, it is the new scienceand technology revolution, which will unleash new growth impetus of the world economy; second, it is the Belt and Road Initiative, which will reshape the globalization landscape; last but not least, it is reform of the global governance system, which is rebuilding the rules for world economic development. As it enters a new era, China will contribute to the transitionand recovery of the world economy and push it to enter the new long-term growth cycle.
中国—东盟自由贸易区的经济影响和减贫效应 余淼杰 高恺琳
中国—东盟自由贸易区是世界上涉及人口最多的自贸区，也是全球GDP总量第三大的经济合作区。自贸区成员国大多为发展中国家，面临着发展经济、消除贫困的共同挑战。中国—东盟自贸区的建立不仅带来了巨大的经济影响，还具有至关重要的减贫效应。自2002年初步签订协议以来，中国—东盟自由贸易区在贸易、投资、基础建设等领域达成了多项经济合作协议，推进了贸易与投资自由化，促进了中国与东盟的经济增长，推动了世界减贫事业发展。本文回顾了中国—东盟自贸区的建立历程，梳理了自贸区在贸易与投资领域的促进措施以及双方的基础设施建设合作，并在此基础上分析了中国与东盟各国在贸易与投资方面的发展现状与特征，以及其经济影响和减贫效果。最后，本文阐述了自贸区存在的主要问题，并提出了相应的政策建议。在未来，推动世界互联互通，促进贸易与投资自由化将继续成为世界的减贫良方。
关键词：自由贸易区 中国—东盟 减贫 贸易自由化
China-ASEAN Free Trade Area: Economic Influence and Poverty Reduction Effect
Yu Miaojie and Gao Kailin
The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) is the most populous free trade area in the world and the third-largest economic cooperation area in the world. Most CAFTA members are developing countries and face the common challenge of economic development and poverty eradication. The establishment of the CAFTA not onlybears huge economic significance, but also has a crucial poverty reduction effect. Since 2002, when China and the ASEAN signed an agreement to establishthe CAFTA, a number of economic cooperation agreements have been reached in the fields of trade, investment, and infrastructure construction, which have contributed to the liberalization of trade and investment, the economic growth of China and ASEAN countries and the progress in poverty eradication. This article reviews the establishment of the CAFTA, summarizes the measures intrade and investment promotion and the cooperation in infrastructure construction; it analyzes the status quo of trade and investment between China and ASEAN countries and the economic influence and poverty reduction effect ofthe CAFTA. Finally, the article elaborates on the main challenges facing the CAFTA and puts forward policy suggestions. In the future, promotion of global connectivity and liberalization of trade and investment will remain a very effective way to reduce poverty.
从“货币三元悖论”到“金融三元悖论”—— 国际资本流动研究的新思路
范小云 刘 粮 陈 雷
本文通过梳理国际金融发展的历史脉络，发现传统的开放宏观经济学理论框架通常将对经济区域、货币区域和决策主体的简化假设统一起来进行建模分析，政策制定者关注重点在于对“货币三元悖论”的选择上。本文在探讨金融因素在理论分析中的地位愈加重要的基础上，提出传统假设下对国际资本流动分析的弊端，以及对金融全球化、金融政策独立性和金融稳定，即“金融三元悖论”的思考。本文认为，国际资本流动研究的新思路应该打破经济领域界限，考虑国际货币的重要地位以及多元决策主体的差异性，从跨国银行和跨国非金融企业的联合资产负债表入手，以总资本流动为分析重点，探索总外部头寸背后暗含的流动性总量和金融不稳定特征，从而为一国在金融全球化的趋势下，提出实现国内金融稳定提供合理的宏观审慎管理措施和跨国银行流动性管理建议。
关键词：货币三元悖论 金融三元悖论 国际资本流动 金融稳定
From “Monetary Trilemma” to “Financial Trilemma”: A New Perspective of International Capital Flows
Fan Xiaoyun, Liu Liang and Chen Lei
This article analyzes the history of international finance and stresses that the new open macroeconomics is based on the assumption of “triple coincidence”, which is the coincidence of GDP area, currency area and decision-making unit. Policymakers have focused on the framework of “monetary trilemma”. The article argues that financial factors have become more and more important and points out shortcomings of the traditional framework. It further analyzes the“financial trilemma”, which involves relationship among financial globalization, financial policy independence and financial stability. The article proposes some new perspectives for looking at international capitalflows: (1) Breaking of the GDP area restriction; (2) International currencies taken into consideration; (3) The heterogeneity of decision-making units taken into consideration. It also suggests that more attention should be paid to the consolidated balance sheets of multinational banks and non-banking enterprises and gross capital flows should be analyzed to study the characteristics of liquidity and financial stability so that suggestions can be made for a country to implement appropriate prudential macromanagement to achieve domestic financial stability against the back drop of financial globalization and properly manage global banking liquidity.
新时代中国的对外贸易发展：机遇与挑战—— 中国世界经济学会国际贸易论坛（2018）学术研讨会观点综述
邱 斌 张 亮 刘修岩 陈 健
Opportunities and Challenges in China’s Foreign Trade Development in
the New Era — Summary of the International Trade Forum (2018),
Organizedby the China Society of World Economics
Qiu Bin, Zhang Liang, Liu Xiuyan and Chen Jian
The International Trade Forum (2018), organized by China Society of World Economics, was held from April 14 to 15, 2018, in Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. The theme of the forum is China’s Foreign Trade Development in the New Era: Opportunities and Challenges.
延伸阅读：
关注中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所微信公众号，请微信搜索“iwepcass”或“中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所”。