成果｜韩洪云等在《Energy》发表《埃及的经济社会结构与电力消费》

近日，浙江大学中国农村发展研究院韩洪云教授和埃及博士生Amira Radwan合著论文《Economic and social structure and electricity consumption in Egypt》（埃及的经济社会结构与电力消费）被《Energy》录用。该期刊是爱思唯尔(Elsevier)旗下能源领域著名学术期刊，SCI检索，2020年影响因子6.082，五年影响因子6.046，为能源领域JCR1区期刊。

文章摘要：

能源在经济增长中起着重要作用。预计埃及未来几年的电力消费预计将超过发电能力。因此，本研究旨在探讨埃及电力消费的决定因素。本研究收集了1997-2018年的统计数据，包括能源消费、国内生产总值、人口总数、城市人口、农村人口、工业增加值、通货膨胀消费价格、最终消费支出。电力消耗和国内生产总值(GDP)之间存在着长期的因果关系。城镇化、工业增加值、通货膨胀的居民消费价格、最终消费支出、用电量之间存在短期因果关系。在这里，进行单位根检验来判断数据是平稳的还是非平稳的，并采用乔纳森协整检验和向量误差修正模型(VECM)对结果进行了分析。结果表明，随着国内生产总值的增加，用电量也会增加，用电量与人口增长之间存在短期的因果关系。这项研究仅限于埃及，仅仅关注于能源，进一步的研究可以从其他国家的角度来研究可再生能源的消耗。

Abstract：Energy plays an essential role in economic growth. It is expected that the electricity consumption projections in Egypt will exceed electricity generation capabilities for the upcoming years. Therefore, this research aims to examine the determinants of electricity consumption in Egypt. In this quantitative research, the secondary data, energy consumption, gross domestic product, total population, urban population, rural population, industry value-added GDP, inflation consumer price, and final consumption expenditure have been collected from 1997-2018. There is a long-run causality between electricity consumption and gross domestic product. Urbanization, industry value-added GDP, inflation consumer price, final consumption expenditure, and electricity consumption show the regression analysis’s short-run causality. In this, the unit root test was run to know if the data is stationary or non-stationary. Johansen co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) also used to find the result. The results revealed that as the gross domestic product increases, the electricity consumption would also increase, and short-run causality between electricity consumption and an increase in population. This study is limited to Egypt and merely focused on energy. Future studies can use this research to investigate renewable energy consumption from the perspective of other countries.

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韩洪云，浙江大学中国农村发展研究院、浙江大学农业现代化与农村发展研究中心教授，博导。

CARD卡特简介

浙江大学中国农村发展研究院（浙大CARD）高度重视青年人才的引育工作。2016年以来，浙大农经相继引进龚斌磊、陈帅、鄢贞、汪笑溪、史新杰、林雯六位“百人计划”研究员和钱振澜、胡伟斌两位博士。与此同时，青年教师不断成长，茅锐、梁巧和季晨分别晋升教授、副教授，龚斌磊和陈帅也先后获得浙江大学长聘制教职。青年人才的引进和培育为浙大农经学科的持续发展与繁荣提供坚实的保障。浙大农经学科坚决落实科技部、教育部等部门“破五唯”专项行动的精神，推行代表作评价制度、突出标志性成果的重要性。近年来，在Management Science、Journal of Development Economics、American Journal of Agricultural Economics、Journal of Environmental Economics and Management、Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economics、《中国社会科学》、《经济研究》、《管理世界》等国内外顶尖期刊发表了一批标志性成果，大大提升了学科在国内外的学术影响力。

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