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中美脱钩:35万亿美元的“离婚”是地球人的不能承受之重

凭海观潮 2020-10-24

The following article is from 报人刘亚东 Author 报人刘亚东


划重点
-01-中美技术脱钩似乎在所难免。美国表达出强烈意愿,并已开始付诸行动。中国也在为此进行精神和物质的双重准备。然而,全面的科技脱钩不切实际。
 
-02-脱钩是手段,而不是目的。通过技术脱钩,美国对中国进行遏制,从而占领未来技术制高点以及掌握价值链主导权。
  
-03-一种更为可能的情形是,中美技术脱钩将在局部发生,集中在个别领域,而不是全方位的。这种选择性脱钩不会涉及那些量大面广的一般技术,否则不符合美国自身利益。


-04-技术不会游离于经济而存在。从本质上讲,无论技术挂钩还是技术脱钩,都是经济活动和市场行为,因而最终都要由经济规律和市场准则来决定和支配。


-05-中美关系并不必然走向对抗。中美技术脱钩虽然已露端倪,但决不会发展成两个彼此隔绝的系统。从长期看,中美走向合作才是历史的必然,也是任何人都阻挡不了的。


-06-可以肯定地说,中国迄今并没有那种“藏不住”的软硬实力!即使不愿示人以弱,但至少不应示人以“强”,因为这种“强”不是事实的全部。


-07-那些以中国拥有最齐全的工业门类等为由,声称不惜回到闭关锁国、自力更生年代的人,是极端不负责任的。毫不夸张地说,这种误国害民的无稽之谈成为现实之时,就是中华民族“被开除球籍”之日!


-08-虽然单边主义和贸易保护主义逆流汹涌,但全球化浪潮终究不可阻挡。在全球化深入发展的背景下,创新资源在世界范围内快速流动,各国之间的经济、科技联系日益紧密。任何国家都不可能在每个技术领域都做到世界第一,也不可能完全依靠自己的力量解决所有的创新难题。
 
-09-对于中国来说,低水平的自给自足不应当成为选项,而“样样争第一”的想法同样不切实际。应该摒弃那种“中国和外国”的观念,我们不可能也没必要和全世界竞争。别人越是想与中国脱钩,我们越是不要脱钩,或力争把脱钩的范围、程度和影响减至最小,努力参与国际分工与合作,积极融入全球价值链。
  
-10-十年二十年甚至五十年,于人的一生长得无法忽略,但在历史长河中,却短到有时难以留下痕迹。我们不能因暂时的困难而导致战略误判,更不能让国家的发展偏离正确航道。


  
正应了那句话:友谊的小船说翻就翻。仅仅两年多时间,从合作伙伴到竞争对抗,中美关系经历了断崖式下跌,已经远远偏离正常轨道。2018年上半年刚刚出现麻烦时,还只是类似于1980年代的美日贸易摩擦。但到了2020年,就已经发展到接近于冷战时期的美苏对峙。


特朗普不久前称,正考虑将21万亿美元的美国经济与14万亿美元的中国经济脱钩。就算是竞选语言,也不能这么不走脑子。2019年,中美GDP合计35万亿美元,世界占比超过40%。


总量35万亿美元的世界第一和第二大经济体的日子说不过就不过了,先不说中国人愿不愿意,就是美国人事到临头也未必都能斩钉截铁地做出决断。最近,苹果、迪士尼、沃尔玛等公司就对特朗普禁止微信所带来的可怕影响发出了严正警告。
 
中美全面的经济脱钩无疑是这个世界的不能承受之重。即便是人们正在热议的所谓中美“科技脱钩”,也远不是看上去那么简单。把这个问题厘清楚,中国才不会进退失据。

 

1

选择性脱钩是大概率事件
 
中美“科技脱钩”似乎在所难免。美国表达出强烈意愿,并已开始付诸行动。中国也在为此进行精神和物质的双重准备。在经济、技术、人文交流等方面,中美双方都在减少对对方的依赖。然而,全面的“科技脱钩”依然不切实际。这不是“想不想”的问题,而是“能不能”的问题。“科技脱钩”中的“科”指科学,“技”指技术,这里的“科”和“技”必须分开讨论。



首先,科学的使命是探索宇宙奥秘,揭示自然规律。科学的发现或成果大都以知识的形态存在于无形,而且必然地成为全人类的共同成果,任何国家都不可能实施垄断。知识就是知识,世界上不存在“中国的知识”或“美国的知识”。而且,对知识共享持开放态度,是科学探索取得成功的基础和关键。比如,引力波从预言到证实历时一百年,许多国家的大批科学家都各自为此做出了不可或缺的贡献,谁会、谁又能“捂着作业本,不让别人看”!
 
两百年前的地球上,“通讯基本靠吼,交通基本靠走。”尽管如此,法国微生物学家巴斯德尚且得出“科学无国界”的结论。在21世纪“快速移动互联+人工智能”的地球村,如果有人想在科学的园地里竖起篱笆墙,那必定是徒劳的。所以,就纯粹科学特别是基础科学而言,国家之间不可能做到脱钩,所谓的“脱钩”是个伪命题。中国和美国都有不少人搞不清这个问题,因为他们没有弄懂科学的本质和属性。
 
其次,我们也应认识到,现代科学和技术发展的一大趋势是融合,二者之间的界限越来越模糊,呈现出科学技术化和技术科学化的鲜明特征。从形成一种新知识到把这种知识运用到产品和工艺,所用的时间也在不断缩短。甚至还有一部分科学正在变成技术,基因科学就是一个例子。技术越新(尤其是高技术),包含的科学知识越密集。另一方面,科学的进步也越来越依赖最新技术装备的支持。要说脱钩,这部分科学,通常是应用科学,倒是可以做些文章的。


 
第三,在更多情形下,所谓的中美“科技脱钩”,确切地说是中美技术脱钩。即便是技术脱钩,也主要集中在那些具有较高军事价值的领域,以及那些关键敏感、颠覆性创新最有可能率先取得突破的领域,如新一代信息技术、量子计算和生物技术等。在这些领域中,美国将加强对中国的封锁。维护军事安全领域的技术优势是美国在国家安全领域的核心关切,将成为两国技术脱钩的重点。美国近期在限制人员交流、调查华裔科学家、提高投资准入门槛以及加强技术管控等方面的动作已经佐证了这一点。
 
脱钩是手段,而不是目的。通过技术脱钩,美国对中国进行遏制,从而占领未来技术制高点以及掌握价值链主导权。上世纪八九十年代,面对日本高新技术企业咄咄逼人的发展态势,美国同样充满戒备和防范。但美日贸易战背后的技术纷争并没有升级为技术脱钩,其中一个重要原因便是互联网革命使美国再次成为信息技术和产业的领头羊。释怀的山姆大叔这才对日本人露出了笑脸。
 
所以,一种更为可能的情形是,中美技术脱钩将在局部发生,集中在个别领域,而不是全方位的。这种选择性脱钩不会涉及那些量大面广的一般技术,否则不符合美国自身利益。美国前财长亨利•保尔森2019年6月27日在《金融时报》撰文指出:“将美国与中国企业家、科学家、发明家以及他们培育创新的生态系统分隔开来,将会削弱美国自身的创新能力。中国和其他国家将继续通过相互合作共同取得进步。在最糟糕的情况下,我们可能会在很大程度上把重要技术隔绝在美国之外,以至于美国公司将无法再参与国际研究合作以及对那些发展最快的行业有帮助的供应链。美国也将失去其作为全球最具吸引力的投资目的地的地位。”
 
相对于中国,美国最近十年来在某些领域常常都是技术领先,应用滞后。虽然在基础研究和相关技术开发方面具有压倒性优势,但在产业化和大规模市场应用方面往往步履蹒跚,发展速度不及预期,电子商务、移动支付等都已成为“起大早,赶晚集”的尴尬案例。在5G、人工智能和生物技术等领域,中国技术创新能力的迅速提升更引起美国的焦虑,担心在产业化方面被中国反超。因而,极尽打压华为、海康威视和华大基因等中国企业之能事,旨在长期掌控价值链高端,为美国企业形成技术和产品的代际优势和攫取更多的垄断利润扫清障碍。


 
在21世纪的人类社会,世界第一和第二大经济体如果“鸡犬相闻,老死不相往来”,无论如何都会让人无法想像。技术不会游离于经济而存在。从本质上讲,无论技术挂钩还是技术脱钩,都是经济活动和市场行为,因而最终都要由经济规律和市场准则来决定和支配。
 
2019年5月23日,任正非在媒体访谈中说:“向华为供货的上游芯片企业,想尽一切办法向华为供货,虽然这并不能排除在长期的合作中结下的友谊,但美国企业的出发点其实未必是道德化的,也可能很简单,就是为了更好看的财务报表,更多的利润。”的确,企业要逐利并实现利润最大化,所以总会想出各种各样的办法规避非关税壁垒。

 

2

中国应该怎么办
 
中美关系并不必然走向对抗。中美技术脱钩虽然已露端倪,但决不会发展成两个彼此隔绝的系统。从长期看,中美走向合作才是历史的必然,也是任何人都阻挡不了的。中美保持友好关系,对世界有利,更对中国有利。就像习近平总书记所说:“我们有一千条理由把中美关系搞好,没有一条理由把中美关系搞坏。”无论中国还是美国,都难以承受新的冷战的代价。当前,面对险恶的国际局势和不断滑坡的中美关系,我们尤其应当保持战略定力,扎扎实实做好该做的和能做的事情。
 
2019年,中国100万亿元人民币的经济总量已经达到美国的三分之二,这本来就容易引起对方忌惮。近年来,我们的社会上还岀现了很多夸大中国建设成就的舆论和观点。无论主观动机如何,这种妄自尊大和忘乎所以的非理性宣泄,都推波助澜地让外界对我们更加戒备,也为国际上的中国威胁论提供了口实。国内还有一种论调,认为当下严峻的外部环境是中国现代化进程发展到目前阶段的必然结果,张口闭口“修昔底德陷阱”。表面看似有理,实际上却经不起推敲。
 

人们也许忘了,与GDP规模相比,GDP的结构和质量更能反映一个国家的经济实力。经济实力的比拼,从来不靠GDP,而是靠技术话语权和产业链掌控能力。这样的例子不胜枚举。必须看到,最近几十年来的中国实力增长,更多是量的扩张,而不是质的飞跃。低水平的重复和叠加是当前中国社会、经济和科技发展的一个重要特征。试问,除了5G等个别技术,我们今天还有多少拿得出手的东西可以PK美国?
 
还应该认识到,由于人口基数大,虽然中国GDP全球第二,但人均GDP仅居世界中游,尚不及美国的六分之一!中国还有10亿人没坐过飞机,5亿人没用上抽水马桶。“我们人均收入是3万元人民币,但是有6亿人每个月的收入也就是1000元。”李克强总理在2019年两会记者招待会上的这番话,令人震撼,引人深思。
 
“不平衡不充分的发展”恰如其分地概括了今天的中国国情。我们的民生领域还有很多短板,脱贫攻坚任务艰巨。较大的群体差别、城乡差别、东西部差别无时不在困扰着我们的国家和社会。粗放的发展方式也让我们在资源环境方面付出沉重代价,积累了大量生态环境问题。人们如饥似渴地呼唤清新空气和青山绿水。此外,我们的发展质量和效益不高,创新能力不强;社会文明水平尚需提高;社会矛盾和问题交织叠加,全面依法治国任务依然繁重,国家治理体系和治理能力亟待加强。
 
可以肯定地说,中国迄今并没有那种“藏不住”的软硬实力!即使不愿示人以弱,但至少不应示人以“强”,因为这种“强”不是事实的全部。有人说,我们现在需要低调。这是对的,但不确切。对一个正琢磨着镶金牙的暴发户,你可以奉劝他低调;而对一个刚刚解决温饱问题还没过上小康生活的人,你想让他怎么低调!坦率讲,我们现在连“低调”的资格都没有,实事求是就够了。
    
正确判断形势,客观认识自我,这是政策制定的前提和基础。当前,中美关系正在发生深刻变化,对中国的影响是巨大的,也是长期的。这要求我们以高度的敏感和智慧,审时度势,趋利避害。那些以中国拥有最齐全的工业门类等为由,声称中国可以采取“超强硬”外交姿态,甚至不惜回到闭关锁国、自力更生年代的人,是极端不负责任的。毫不夸张地说,这种误国害民的无稽之谈成为现实之时,就是中华民族“被开除球籍”之日!
 

2020年7月9日,国务委员兼外长王毅在中美智库媒体视频论坛致辞时,提出推动中美关系走出困境的三条建议。“中国无意挑战或取代美国,无意与美国全面对抗。”他强调,双方要正确看待中美关系发展的历史经验,不另起炉灶,更不强行脱钩。王毅的讲话体现了大国外交的气度和担当。
 
虽然单边主义和贸易保护主义逆流汹涌,但全球化浪潮终究不可阻挡。在全球化深入发展的背景下,创新资源在世界范围内快速流动,各国之间的经济、科技联系日益紧密。任何国家都不可能在所有技术领域都做到世界第一,也不可能完全依靠自己的力量解决所有的创新难题。中国做不到,德国、日本做不到,就连美国也做不到。
 
对于中国来说,低水平的自给自足不应当成为选项,而“样样争第一”的想法同样不切实际。应该摒弃那种“中国和外国”的观念,我们不可能也没必要和全世界竞争。别人越是想与中国脱钩,我们越是不要脱钩,或力争把脱钩的范围、程度和影响减至最小,努力参与国际分工与合作,积极融入全球价值链。
 



另一方面,在“地球村”里,每个国家无疑也会打自己的算盘。我们在强调合作共赢时,要保持清醒的头脑,搞清楚哪些技术可以和别人共同开发,哪些可以引进消化吸收再创新,哪些可以引进但必须安全可控,哪些今天不得不引进但将来要实现国产替代,哪些必须完全依靠自己的力量开展攻关并取得突破。就技术创新而言,中国尤其应该有的放矢,把有限的办量集中用于实现有限的目标。
 
越是以开放的心态拥抱全球创新,就越是要求我们尽可能多地把核心技术掌握在自己手里,尽快摆脱对国外技术单方面依赖的困境。只有积攒了足够的“筹码”,才能和对方平等地交换;同时还要留够反制对方的本钱,以备不时之需。

中国的自主创新之路,是一条既不排斥“拿来主义”,又强调以我为主的知易行难之路。它是开放的,鼓励合作共赢;它又是自主的,体现自己的意志和意图。只有这样,我们才能在自主创新中扩大开放,在扩大开放中实现更高层次上的自主创新。
 
风物长宜放眼量。十年二十年甚至五十年,于人的一生长得不无法忽略,但在历史长河中,却短到有时难以留下痕迹。我们不能因暂时的困难而导致战略误判,更不能让国家的发展偏离正确航道。时代潮流浩浩荡荡,顺之者昌,逆之者亡。以维护国家和民族的长远利益为已任,坚持改革开放的政治路线和思想路线不动摇,这才是时下最大的“政治正确”。



50. All you can do is to try your best. Even with those small steps, you're closer to your goal than you were yesterday. 我们能做的只是拼尽全力,即使迈出的步子再小,也比昨天要更接近自己的目标。51. A smile is the shortest distance between two people. 微笑是人与人之间最短的距离。52. Do or do not. There is no try. 要么做,要么滚!没有试试看这一说。53. Courage is being afraid but going on anyhow. 勇气就是虽感恐惧,但仍会前行。54. A man can be destroyed but not defeated. 人可以被毁灭,但不可以被打败。55. A truly happy person is one who can enjoy the scenery while on a detour. 真正快乐的人是那种在走弯路时也不忘享受风景的人。56. No dream is too big, and no dreamer is too small. 梦想再大也不嫌大,追梦的人再小也不嫌小。57. It doesn't matter how many times you fail. What matters is how many times you stand up and try again. 失败多少次不重要,重要的是你能重新站起来多少次,并且继续前行。58. Silence is the most powerful cry. 沉默是最有力的呐喊。《美丽人生》 59. A little consideration, a little thought for others makes all the difference. 一点点体贴,一点点为他人着想,会让一切都不一样。60. Stop waiting for things to happen.Go out and make them happen. 别指望事情会自然发生,行动起来,让它们变成可能!61. Don't look forward to tomorrow, don't miss yesterday, to grasp today. 不憧憬明天,不留念昨天,只把握今天。62. Now we don't call it alive. It's just not to die. 我们现在不叫活着,这只是没有死去。《疯狂原始人》 63. You can change your life if you want to. Sometimes you have to be hard on yourself, but you can change it completely. 有志者事竟成。有时虽劳其筋骨,但命运可以彻底改变。《唐顿庄园》 64. Time will bring a surprise, if you believe. 时间会带来惊喜,如果你相信的话。《浮生物语》 65. What others think is not important . How you feel about yourself is all that matters. 别人怎么想并不重要,你怎么看自己才是关键。66. Don't cry because it is over,smile because it happened. 不要因为结束而哭泣,微笑吧,因为你曾经拥有。67. Tomorrow is never clear. Our time is here. 明天是未知的,我们还是享受此刻吧!《摇滚夏令营》 68. Life is either a daring adventure or nothing at all. 生活要么大胆尝试,要么什么都不是。69. Pursue excellence and success will follow. 追求卓越,成功自然来。《三傻大闹宝莱坞》 70. Climb mountains not so the world can see you, but so you can see the world. 爬上山顶并不是为了让全世界看到你,而是让你看到整个世界。71. Every step towards your dream today is a step away from your regret tomorrow. 今日为梦想所付出的每一份努力都会减少明日的一份后悔。72. It's never too late to be what you might have been. 勇敢做自己,永远都不迟。(乔治·艾略特) 73. It's time to start living the life you've imagined. 是时候开始过自己想要的生活了!95. How can men succumb to force? 男人怎么能屈服于“武力”之下?《海贼王》 96. Life is like live TV show. There is no rehearsal. 人生没有彩排,只有现场直播。97. Dress shabbily and they remember the dress; dress impeccably and they remember the woman. 穿着破旧,人们记住衣服;穿着无瑕,人们则记住衣服里的女人。(Coco Chanel) 98. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies. 希望是一件好事,也许是人间至善,而美好的事永不消逝。《肖申克的救赎》 99. There are so many beautiful reasons to be happy. 有太多太多美好的理由让你笑对生活。100. Where the more different you are, the better. 你们之间越是不同,越好。(Glee) 101. I'm only brave when I have to be. Being brave doesn't mean you go looking for trouble. 我只在必要时才勇敢,勇敢并不代表你要到处闯祸。《狮子王》 102. Behind every successful man there's a lot of unsuccessful years. 每个牛B的成功者都经历过苦B的岁月。(鲍博.布朗) 103. If you want something done, do it yourself. 靠谁都不如靠自己。《第五元素》 104. Life is a wonderful journey. Make it your journey and not someone else's. 生命是一段精彩旅程,要活的有自己的样子,而不是别人的影子。105. No matter how many mistakes you make or how slowly you progress, you are already ahead of those who never tried. 无论你犯了多少错,或者进步得有多慢,你都走在了那些不曾尝试的人的前面。106. Some things are so important that they force us to overcome our fears. 总有些更重要的事情,赋予我们打败恐惧的勇气。107. Say to yourself: "No matter how many obstacles I encounter in life, I will do all that I can to complete the whole course." 请对自己说:无论生活之路上会遇到多少障碍,我会竭尽所能地跑完这一程。108. No cross, no crown. 不经历风雨,怎么见彩虹。109. Try not to become a man of success but rather try to become a man of value. 与其努力成功,不如努力成为有价值的人。(爱因斯坦) 110. Remember when life's path is steep to keep your mind even. 记住:当人生很苦逼的时候,你要保持淡定。111. If you're brave enough to say GOODBYE, life will reward you with a new HELLO. 只要你勇敢地说出再见,生活一定会给你一个新的开始。112. Sometimes the right path is not the easiest one. 对的那条路,往往不是最好走的。113. Just trust yourself, then you will know how to live. 只要相信自己,你就会懂得如何去生活。114. In life it's not where you go. It's who you travel with. 生命中,重要的不是你去哪里,而是与谁同行。115. Life is like a rainbow. You don't always know what's on the other side, but you know it's there. 生活像一道彩虹,你不知道另一端通向哪里,但你会知道,它总是在那里。116. When the world says,"Give up!"Hope whispers,"Try it one more time." 当全世界都在说“放弃”的时候,希望却在耳边轻轻地说:“再试一次吧”!117. I don't care about other questions and I just try to be myself. 我不在乎别人的质疑,我只会做好自己。118. Attempt doesn't necessarily bring success, but giving up definitely leads to failure. 努力不一定成功,但放弃一定失败!119. The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today. 对明天最好的准备就是今天做到最好。120. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart. 你已经一无所有,没有什么道理不顺心而为。(乔布斯) 121. Life is a journey, one that is much better traveled with a companion by our side. 人生是一场旅程,我们最好结伴同行。122. Sometimes you have to fall before you can fly. 有时候,你得先跌下去,才能飞起来。123. If you are able to appreciate beauty in the ordinary, your life will be more vibrant. 如果你擅于欣赏平凡中的美好,你的生活会更加多姿多彩。124. Be who you are, and never ever apologize for that! 坚持做自己,并永远不要为此而后悔!125. Consider the bad times as down payment for the good times. Hang in there. 把苦日子当做好日子的首付,坚持就是胜利!126. Do not pray for easy lives, pray to be stronger. 与其祈求生活平淡点,还不如祈求自己强大点。127. Everybody can fly without wings when they hold on to their dreams. 坚持自己的梦想,即使没有翅膀也能飞翔。128. There is no such thing as a great talent without great will power. 没有伟大的意志力,便没有雄才大略。129. You can't change your situation. The only thing that you can change is how you choose to deal with it. 境遇难以改变,你能改变的唯有面对它时的态度。130. Whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well. 凡是值得做的事,就值得做好。131. Perfection is not just about control.It's also about letting go. 完美不仅在于控制,也在于释放。《黑天鹅》 132. Dream is what makes you happy, even when you are just trying. 梦想就是一种让你感到坚持就是幸福的东西。133. Never frown,because you never know who is falling in love with your smile. 别愁眉不展,因为你不知道谁会爱上你的笑容。134. It's easy once you know how. 一旦你明白,就会很简单。135. In order to be irreplaceable, one must always be different. 要做到不可替代,就要与众不同。136. I honestly think it is better to be a failure at something you love than to be a success at something you hate. 宁愿失败地做你爱做的事情,也不要成功地做你恨做的事情。(George Burns) 137. Don't hide. Run! You'll make it to tomorrow. 别躲避,奔跑吧,你就会找到明天。138. Life comes with many challenges.The ones that should not scare us are the ones we can take on and take control of. 生活充满了挑战,唯有勇敢面对并自我掌控,我们才能克服恐惧。(安吉丽娜·朱莉) 139. Life doesn't just happen to you; you receive everything in your life based on what you've given. 一切发生在你身上的都不是碰巧。你获得什么,在于你付出了什么。140.You are more beautiful than you think. 你,要比你想象的更美丽。141. Throughout life's complications, you should maintain such a sense of elegance. 不管生活有多不容易,你都要守住自己的那一份优雅。142. When you feel like giving up, remember why you held on so long in the first place. 每当你想要放弃的时候,就想想是为了什么才一路坚持到现在。143. Enjoy your youth.You'll never be younger than you are at this very moment. 好好享受青春,你再也不会有哪个时刻会比此时更年轻了。144. You'd better bring, cause I'll bring every I've got it. 你最好全神贯注,因为我定会全力以赴!145. Take time to enjoy the simple things in life. 慢慢享受生活中的简单。146. As long as you are still alive, you will definitely encounter the good things in life. 只要活着就一定会遇上好事。147. Hold on, it gets better than you know. 挺住,事情会比你想像中要好!148. If you are fine,the sun will always shine. 你若安好,便是晴天。149. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. 磨难会让你更强大。150. Every life deserves our respect. 每一个生命都应该被尊重。151. The best feeling in the world is when you know your heart is smiling. 世间最美好的感受,就是发现自己的心在笑。152. Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion. 永远不要低估一颗冠军的心。(Rudy Tomjanovich) 153. There is nothing permanent except change. 唯一不变的是变化。154. The difference between successful persons and others is that they really act. 成功者和其他人最大的区别就是,他们真正动手去做了。155. Don't follow the crowd, let the crowd follow you. 不要随波逐流,要引领潮流。(Margaret Thatcher) 156. People pay in advance for a coffee meant for someone who cannot afford a warm beverage. 人们提前买咖啡,让付不起的人享受温暖。157. No one is born a genius.Just keep on doing what you like and that itself is a talent. 哪有什么天才!坚持做你喜欢的事情,这本身就是一种天赋。(大野智) 158. The world is a book, and those who do not travel read only one page. 世界是一本书,不旅行的人只读了其中一页。159. You can create something more glorious than the championship. 你可以创造比冠军更荣耀的事。160. You never get a second chance to make a first impression. 永远没有第二次机会,给人留下第一印象。161. You can always be a worse version of "him", or better version of yourself. 你不是要做一个单纯优秀的人,而是要做一个不可替代的人。162. Give every day the chance to become the most beautiful day of your life. 让每一天都有机会成为你人生中最美好的一天。163. Honesty is the best policy. 做人以诚信为本。164. To a crazy ship all winds are contrary. 对于一只漫无目标的船而言,任何方向的风都是逆风。165. The outer world you see is a reflection of your inner self. 你看到什么样的世界,你就拥有什么样的内心。166. Strike while the iron is hot. 趁热打铁。167. Knowing what you cannot do is far more important than knowing what you are capable of. 知道自己不能做什么远比知道自己能做什么重要。168. People cry, not because they're weak. It's because they've been strong for too long. 哭泣,不代表脆弱,只因坚强了太久。169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡,但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧!177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。     When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Like many who lived through the war, they had experienced enough excitement that, when it was over, they desired simply to settle down, raise a family, and lead a less eventful life. They had little money, so they moved to Wisconsin and lived with Paul’s parents for a few years, then headed for Indiana, where he got a job as a machinist for International Harvester. His passion was tinkering with old cars, and he made money in his spare time buying, restoring, and selling them. Eventually he quit his day job to become a full-time used car salesman. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later来源:小兵说天下

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