《nature》｜实施净负碳经济

摘要

将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度的剩余碳预算可能会在这10年内耗尽。此后产生的碳债务将需要用净负排放来补偿。但是，还没有制定经济政策工具来保证可能非常昂贵的净二氧化碳去除(CDR)。在此，我们提出使用跨期工具为广泛应用的碳税和排放交易制度提供基础，从而为净负碳经济融资。我们研究了一种理想化的市场方法，通过 “碳去除义务”(CROs)确立排放者对净去除二氧化碳的责任，来激励之前累积的碳债务的偿还。固有风险，如碳债务人的违约风险，是通过对碳债务的利息为大气二氧化碳储存定价来解决的。与目前流行的关于排放途径的文献相反，我们发现，“碳去除义务”的利息支付会导致更加积极主动的短期脱碳，而早期和较不积极的“二氧化碳去除“计划部署则会对其起到补充作用。我们的结论是，如果我们要确保雄心勃勃的气候目标的可行性和减缓的努力在各代人之间的公平分配，应对气候变化将需要成为全球气候政策组合的一个组成部分。

Abstact

The remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius will probably be exhausted within this decade. Carbon debt generated thereafter will need to be compensated by net-negative emissions. However, economic policy instruments to guarantee potentially very costly net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) have not yet been devised. Here we propose intertemporal instruments to provide the basis for widely applied carbon taxes and emission trading systems to finance a net-negative carbon economy. We investigate an idealized market approach to incentivize the repayment of previously accrued carbon debt by establishing the responsibility of emitters for the net removal of carbon dioxide through ‘carbon removal obligations’ (CROs). Inherent risks, such as the risk of default by carbon debtors, are addressed by pricing atmospheric CO2 storage through interest on carbon debt. In contrast to the prevailing literature on emission pathways, we find that interest payments for CROs induce substantially more-ambitious near-term decarbonization that is complemented by earlier and less-aggressive deployment of CDR. We conclude that CROs will need to become an integral part of the global climate policy mix if we are to ensure the viability of ambitious climate targets and an equitable distribution of mitigation efforts across generations.

Nature，《自然》是一份国际周刊，以其原创性、重要性、跨学科兴趣、及时性、可访问性、优雅性和令人惊讶的结论为基础，出版所有科学技术领域最优秀的同行评议研究。《自然》还提供快速、权威、深刻和引人注目的新闻，并对影响科学、科学家和更广泛的公众的热点和未来趋势进行解读。

原文链接 link！ 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03723-9

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