《AJAE》｜农业适应气候变化的微气候工程:以加州开心果为例

摘要：农民能否通过改变农田的有效天气条件来适应气候变化?现有的技术可以让农民在关键时期将植物冷却几度，减少过热造成的损害。由于高温对产量的非线性影响，轻微降温可以给许多作物带来显著收益。我们称这种方法为“微气候工程”(MCE)，并指出它可以作为一种气候变化适应的概念。我们的案例研究涉及到加州开心果，它们在冬季受到白天温度升高的威胁。基于已经在其他环境和作物中使用的产品，一种新的阳光反射解决方案可能有助于应对这一挑战。我们建立了一个模型来分析使用微气候工程的加州开心果的种植者选择和市场结果。据推算，多个场景中2020-2040年的福利增加额为4.9亿~ 14.2亿美元。模拟结果表明，当微气候工程可用时，消费者剩余和总福利增加，但总的生产者利润减少。我们还引入了市场力量来测试微气候工程对收益的潜在影响，发现了混合效应。

Abstract：Can farmers adapt to climate change by altering effective weather conditions on their fields? Existing technologies allow farmers to cool down plants by a few degrees during critical periods, reducing the damage from excess heat. With nonlinear effects of high temperatures on yields, slight cooling can bring significant gains in many crops. We call this approach “microclimate engineering” (MCE) and note that it could be useful as a climate change adaptation concept. Our case study deals with California pistachios, threatened by warming daytime temperatures in the winter. A new solution for sunlight reflection, based on products already used in other contexts and crops, could potentially help deal with this challenge. We develop a model to analyze grower choice and market outcomes with MCE for California pistachios. The expected increase in welfare for the period of 2020–2040 is assessed at 0.49–1.42 billion dollars under several scenarios. Simulation results show increases in consumer surplus and total welfare when MCE is available but decreases in aggregate grower profits. We also introduce market power to test its potential effects on the gains from MCE, finding mixed effects.

原文链接：

https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12202

期刊介绍

《美国农业经济学杂志》旨在为世界各地的农业和食品经济学、自然资源和环境、以及农村和社区发展等领域的创造性学术工作讨论提供平台。IF 3.028

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