《JDE》｜农业对气候变化的响应与适应:来自中国的证据
摘要：
本文旨在探讨气候变化通过各种渠道影响农业的机制和长期适应机制。利用35年的县级面板数据，分析了全球变暖对中国农业全要素生产率(TFP)及其对农业投入产出的影响。结果表明，短期内极端高温对中国农业全要素生产率和投入利用具有负面影响，从而对农业产量产生更大的负面影响。然而，长期适应抵消了短期内极端高温暴露对全要素生产率37.9%的影响，而气候适应在更大程度上缓解了农业产出损失。这主要是由于劳动力、肥料和机器的调整在长的时间内更加灵活。尽管已经发现了气候适应，但对未来气候变化情景下影响的预测仍意味着中国农业将遭受重大损失。
关键词：全要素生产力；随机前沿分析；气候变化；应对和适应；中国农业
Abstract：
This article aims to identify the mechanism of how climate changeaffects agriculture through various channels and the mechanism of longer-runadaptation. Using a county-panel dataset spanning the past 35 years, weevaluate the impact of global warming on agricultural total factor productivity(TFP) as well as the impacts on agricultural inputs and outputs in China.Results show that, in the short run, extreme heat has negative effects onChina’s agricultural TFP and input utilization, which results in a morenegative effect on agricultural output measured by yield. However, longer-runadaptation has offset 37.9% of the short-run effects of extreme heat exposureon TFP, while climate adaptation mitigates agricultural output loss to agreater extent due to more flexible adjustment in labor, fertilizer, andmachines in the long run. Despite the detected climate adaptation, projectionsof impacts under future climate change scenarios still imply a substantial lossin China’s agriculture.
Keywords：Total factor productivity; Stochastic frontier analysis; Climate change; Response and adaptation; Agriculture in China
《Journal of Development Economics》（JDE）最新影响因子3.875。《发展经济学杂志》发表与经济发展的所有方面有关的原始研究论文——从当前的政策关切到不发达的结构性问题，是学界公认的发展经济学领域的顶级期刊。
原文链接：
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102557